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- International Economics M.A. (87) (remove)
The 2007/08 Global Financial Crisis is commonly attributed to the increased practice of securitization by nonbank financial intermediaries. Part of the New-Keynesian and Money View literature has focused on the imbalances of supply and demand for safe liquid assets as a demand-side explanation for the surge of such institutions. The demand of Institutional Cash Pools has attracted particular interest. This master thesis studies to which extent fiscal deficits have an effect on the portfolio rebalancing of Institutional Cash Pools in the institutional framework implemented after the crisis in the United States, considering the appropriate changes in regulation, and policy framework for monetary and fiscal policy. The theoretical background is based on the Institutionalist Post-Keynesian economics, highlighting the hierarchy of promises to pay and the liquidity-preference theory of interest. Moreover, the effects in the size of institutional investors derived from a stock-flow consistent perspective are considered. For this purpose, I propose a stock-flow consistent model where the size and portfolio of institutional cash pools is endogenous and fiscal policy is determined by exogenous parameters. The results show that fiscal expansion unambiguously increases the size of Institutional Cash Pools, whilst the composition is ambiguously affected depending on the way fiscal expansion occurs and other distribution parameters.
This paper aims to introduce a new topic for the economic policies associated with financial instability, both theoretically and through data analysis, discussing the roots of instability and the policy recommendations in the literature of Minsky and examining the role of National Development Banks (NDBs) in the economy. The purpose of the work is to acknowledge NDBs as Thwarting Institutions in a Minskyian sense. These special financial institutions have two sides of effects in the economy, one side related to their financial nature, through their capacity to provide finance to key sectors of the economy, and the other related to the real effects the financing of development projects implicate. Due to these influences, National Development Banks can be considered strong pillars to strengthen the economy, providing additional mechanisms for economic policies for stabilisation and recovery purposes, which is the definition of Thwarting Institution. The study case of the Brazilian National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) provided a detailed data analysis of the general performance of the bank between 2000-2018, its importance for the economy and especially the countercyclical role of the bank after the 2008s’ financial crisis. The last section will provide the analysis of financial stability in Brazil, showing important variables both from the financial and real side of the economy, in accordance with the Minskyian theory.
This thesis raises the question and will identify the macroeconomic implications associated with the erosion of the collective bargaining system and how these can potentially be stabilised. It is analysed whether an erosion of the collective agreement system is accompanied by a reduced coordination of wage setting and whether this has a destabilising effect on the entire national economy and beyond. This applies to the contribution of wages to price stability as well as the distribution of income and its consequences. In addition to the instruments and possibilities already under discussion to strengthen the collective bargaining system, potentials for stabilisation can also be derived with a view to France and the Netherlands.
This study assesses how horizontal inequalities between Israeli settlers and Palestinians living in the West Bank cause grievances among Palestinians transforming to violence towards the Israeli citizens. A scoring model tailored to Hebron's case is introduced to evaluate the line of argumentation by estimating the level of violence in the designated area. This method is based on expert interviews containing pre-surveys and a theoretical review. In a second step, the estimated level of violence is tested through data of Palestinian attacks against Israelis based on the Global Terrorism Database (1976-2018). A historical review of the Israeli settlement policy since 1967 substantiates the research. The results suggest that the applied mechanism of horizontal inequalities increases Palestinian grievances and encourages violence in Hebron. Thus, the thesis strengthens theoretical research of horizontal inequalities, grievances, and violence and offers a new direction in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
The annual demand for Christmas trees in Germany and Denmark is premised upon the seeds of Nordmann firs, which come exclusively from the Racha region in the Great Caucasus ridge of Georgia. It thus forms what is variously called a commodity chain, value chain or production network (as a phenomenon) and that can be accounted for with
different concepts including Global Commodity Chains, Global Value Chains and Global Production Networks. The analysis in the thesis is grounded in the Global production Network (GPN) approach, which in the literature also is associated with possibilities of “strategic coupling” and asks for an analysis of “value capture trajectories”. But can the promise of such as “value capture trajectory” be observed in the case of the Nordmann firGPN for the Racha region, from which the seeds of Christmas trees originate? Master thesis examines the prospects for regional development.
Addressing Systemic Risk in Europe during Covid-19: policies, limitations, and challenges ahead
(2021)
This work examines the impacts which the Covid-19 pandemic brought to the stability of the European financial sector. Lockdowns, businesses unable to operate and uncertainty about how the pandemic would evolve fueled a sharp recession. From the lessons learned in the global financial crises and the Eurozone debt crises, there’s an increasing role of macroprudential policies, especially the regiments of the Basel III framework and the monetary policy toolkit. Alongside macroprudential regulation, the European Central Bank provided substantial monetary policy easing, for instance the release of capital buffers and other capital requirements, expanding the TLTRO III and Pandemic Emergency Program which facilitated monetary policy transmission. Authorities also deployed strong fiscal policies which encompassed from tax holidays to direct transfers to households and firms. The combination of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy was unprecedented and helped the economy during the shutdown moments. As a result, indicators of systemic risks in the banking sector during the pandemic remained relatively stable. Nevertheless, some challenges might emerge in the medium-term when policies are phased-out, namely the increasing size of non-performing loans and the sovereign doom-loop. Thus, in the final part of this text a stress test is conducted to evaluate the possible future impacts of the pandemic in the banking sector.
The objective of this master’s thesis paper is to investigate the middle class in China in a comprehensive way and examine the main defying elements of Chinese middle class. In addition to this, this master’s thesis attempts to dive deep and find the overlapping points between middle class and economic growth by talking about the middle class development issues. Historical analysis of middle class
development is also touched in this paper to understand what factors were behind its growth until these days.
In an overall view of my thesis work which is academically backed by previous researches and scholarly papers it is found that economic growth, achievements related to higher education and fair redistribution policies lead to reduced income inequality are the major elements that contribute to the growth of middle class. It is even more significant than social policies which explains class mobility. Based on the findings of my analysis of China, per capita income growth of Chinese people was the major element that expanded Chinese middle class by almost 75% through creating more open business market, and the rest of the factor was done due to inequality changes occurred in China. The growth was mainly occurred via creation of formal jobs which were fairer in payment and increased qualifications of labor force. There was also radical decrease in inequality of labor earnings which is the major factor for reducing income inequality among households. This can be explained by the fact that minimum wages kept rising throughout the 90’s which in turn modified the patterns of middle class consumption.
The Causes of Original Sin - an Empirical Investigation of Emerging Market and Developing Countries
(2021)
This paper investigates third-party logistics from a European perspective based on outsourcing issues. The relationship between the consignors and consignees reached to its new era witnessing implication of a new intermediary, which is called third parties. A typical 3PL company is explained as a facilitator which aims to benefit partners financially and organizationally. In this research the role of outsourcing in 3PL companies, the main factors for stimulating the phenomena will be assessed. Finally, the article reviews company examples and general conditions in this market.
Fintech is an innovative tool that applies technology to improve financial services.
Mobile Baking is the most common product of Fintech and has vast prospects to
improve access to financial resources for the previously unbanked populations. The role
of Fintech in providing inclusion is especially vital in developing countries- where the
proportion of the financially excluded remains high. This study focuses on the role of
M-Banking in serving mentioned populations, and identifies the factors influencing
adoption and usage of Fintech services. The last part also introduces the case of
Azerbaijan-a former USSR country, and concludes by drawing the potential paths of its
Fintech-inclusion development.
The role of a Universal Basic Income in addressing the socio-ecological crisis – a critical analysis
(2021)
Human induced environmental degradation and the continuous rise in inequality are two of the greatest and most pressing challenges currently facing society (UN, 2020). Climate mitigation, ecological sustainability, combating poverty and social inequality are considered prevailing imperatives to contemporary global policy. On the premise that the challenges of ecological sustainability and social inequality call for a collective response, many scholars claim that it requires alternative proposals designed to initiate a multi-disciplinary socio-ecological transition (SET) that can address both issues in an integrated way (Hall et al., 2019). This paper considers the proposal of a Universal Basic Income (UBI)1 that has long been discussed as redistributive economic policy and at present increasingly receives attention regarding strategies to improve ecological sustainability. Although Basic Income (BI) proposals have been put forward by Green and post-growth movements such as degrowth, the ecological case receives less emphasis as evidenced by the fact that hitherto research on the interface of UBI and the environment has been fairly limited (MacNeill & Vibert, 2019). The present paper will enlarge upon the question of how adequate the concept of a BI policy might be in addressing the socio-ecological crisis by critically discussing arguments that indicate its positive environmental impact. By doing so, the paper contributes to the current academic debate on BI that has been revitalized in recent years.
With over one million people arriving in Germany to seek asylum since 2013, entering the labour market remains a key aspect for a successful integration process. In their attempt to attain employment, the recently arrived refugees face multiple challenges. One aspect that offers great potential to support them in finding suitable jobs and enhance their employability are Active Labour Market Policies (ALMPs). This includes measures such as job-counselling, vocational training and direct placement in public or subsidised employment.
This research explores the extent to which ALMPs meet the needs and aspirations of recently arrived refugees with regard to entering the labour market. By means of conducting interviews with members of the target group, this research aims to gain insights into the accessibility, relevance and overall suitability of ALMPs from the perspective of the study participants themselves.
The study shows that the participants ALMPs as relevant in terms of responding to their employment needs and aspirations. However, they perceive the accessible range of activation measures to be limited to a large degree. Certain activation measures were perceived as highly irrelevant, while some were even perceived to be obstructive to their pursuit of employment. Most notably, the participants felt supported by the employees of Public Employment Services (PES) when it comes to receiving short term training. However, when it comes to long-term training, they felt discouraged or even obstructed. This illustrated a perceived conflict between the participants' long-term aspirations, which included a focus on long-term development, and the PES’s emphasis on short-term arrangements and a quick path into employment.
Trade, foreign direct investments and inequality: development perspective for emerging markets
(2018)
The thesis discusses financialization and secular stagnation in the U.S. economy since the 1980s. The theoretical part outlines the historical approach of the main scholars who have discussed secular stagnation before and since the emergence of financialization.
It illustrates the shortcomings of the current mainstream debate. Furthermore, it then focuses on the relationship between the two phenomena on the basis of heterodox approaches. Both Marxian and Post-Keynesian researchers consider financializaion to be responsible for producing stagnation tendencies. They agreed about the temporary counteracting role of financial expansion in addition to its role in producing bubbles and contradictions. They agree about the channel of accumulation but each of them views it in a different way. Further, they agree also on the impact of income inequality but again each of them recognizes this in a different way. However, they differ in describing the structure of financialization and in how they explain the relationship between policy and that structure.
The thesis finds that the Steindlian model finds some common ground between the two paradigms. The data presented illustrates the validity of the model. It is found that the stagnation trend before crisis was pushed by decreasing accumulation in capital stock and increasing inequality. However, despite the existence of increasing inequality household expenditure increased since the compensating factor, “household debt”, was increasing. After the crisis Stagnation tendencies reemerged because of the slowing down of household expenditure. Household expenditure was therefore negatively influenced by increasing inequality and this post-crisis fall in debt. The accumulation channel also contributed to stagnation since the increase in investment was small.
This thesis looks at the potential role of the IG Metall, the biggest German trade union, in the Green Transition of the German automobile sector. The IG Metall’s power and influence in the political, social and economic sphere will be analysed based on the Power Resource Approach by Dörre and Schmalz (2014). The analysis will show that there are two tendencies within the union: a conservative and a progressive approach, differentiated by their goals. Consequently, both wings have different ways to approach the transition and are each relying and focusing on certain power resources. The result is a tightrope walk of the IG Metall, balancing both tendencies within one union in an environment that is as torn as the union itself.
This Master’s thesis aims to explain the causes of rapidly increasing prices in Venezuela and establish whether the current episode can be considered to be of hyperinflationary nature from the post-Keynesian theoretical approach. The chosen approach highlights the role of distributive conflict, indexation mechanism, balance of payments constraint, devaluation expectations and gradual rejection of national currency in favour of foreign currency. We argue that the root cause of the precarious economic situation in Venezuela lies in the long term failure to implement structural changes ensuring industrial diversification and lessening the dependency on oil exports. The symptoms of the Dutch disease are observed in the prolonged currency overvaluation during the high oil revenue periods. In the face of growing external constraint the authorities introduce severe foreign currency rationing (and/or devalue the exchange rate) which ignites inflation due to external bottlenecks since many sectors face supply constraints as they depend on imports of inputs of production. This leads to a regressive distribution of income, which contributes to the growing distributive conflict and fuels inflation further, as workers oppose to the lowering of real wages. Moreover, the currency rationing puts pressure on the black market for exchange as the devaluation expectations increase, leading to a parallel market devaluation-inflation spiral, which threatens to turn into hyperinflation. Nevertheless, we argue that hyperinflation, according to the proposed post-Keynesian framework (the flight to foreign currency), does not materialise despite skyrocketing prices because of the particular institutional setting – the exchange controls, which have been in place since 2003, prevent full currency substitution.
This thesis aims at analysing the potential benefits and obstacles of an Employer-of-Last-resort(ELR) policy in the case of Germany. Three main conclusions can be drawn from the analysis. First, as a bottom-up approach an ELR policy can tackle the issue of unemployment on the macroeconomic, socioeconomic and individual level in a unique way and promotes social inclusion of the unemployed. An ELR addresses non-pecuniary costs of unemployment and has the potential to tackle further socioeconomic problems. Second, this work points out that an ELR’s impact on inflation depends on excess production capacities of economic sectors as well as wage bargaining structures. In this regard, trade unions, government and employer representatives must
cooperate comprehensively in order to adapt to a potential raise of workers’ class consciousness. Third, the institutional setup of the European union does not allow for the application of functional
finance and the necessary fiscal spending for financing an ELR. Hence, Germany would need to abolish or redefine the debt break strategy, e.g. in accordance to the so-called Golden Rule, in order to implement a comprehensive ELR policy.
Historically high and rising level of external debt raises concerns among policymakers and academics around the globe. This master thesis proposes to examine several questions. Firstly, the paper attempts to provide the analysis of the current status quo of external debt in developing and emerging countries. Secondly, it attempts to determine the risks attached to low-quality debt structure. Lastly, the paper attempts answer whether expanding debt market through regional integration of local currency bond markets can increase financial stability and reduce “original sin”.
Is an Interest Rate Cap Warranted in Kenya? An Assessment Through a Vector Error Correction Analysis
(2018)
This paper investigates whether policy rates have an impact on bank lending rates and whether bank lending rates have an impact on credit to the private sector in Kenya. The analysis is based on a vector error correction model (VECM) on a data sample for Kenya over 1996-2016. This investigation was motivated by the recent interest rate capping law that necessitated the reexamination of this channel of monetary transmission. The empirical evidence shows a significant and robust long-run relationship between the policy rate and the bank lending rate. The short-run relationship is significant though less
robust. Similarly there is a significant and robust long-run relationship between credit and the lending rate; the short run relationship is also significant but less robust. These results
indicate that monetary transmission from policy rates to credit is effective in the long run but less so in the short run. Therefore, the interest rate capping law may somehow be justified as a means of containing the cost of credit to stimulate access to credit.
Towards a Fiscal Capacity in the Euro Area. A Critical Assessment of the Recent Policy Proposals.
(2018)
This paper investigates whether macroeconomic policy regimes contributed to the emergence and shifts in macroeconomic demand and growth regimes in the core Euro Area before and after the Eurozone crisis. Against the background of Post-Keynesian/ Kaleckian theory, it is argued that financialisation has led to higher income inequality, lower investment in capital stock, an increase in the potential for debt- and wealth-based consumption as well as high current account imbalances. These four characteristics entailed the emergence of unstable and extreme macroeconomic demand and growth regimes, in particular the export-led mercantilist and the debt-led private demand boom type, in financialised economies. In a qualitative analysis based on quantitative data, it is assessed by which regime type eleven core Eurozone economies were characterized in the periods 2001-2009 and 2010-2019. In a second step, the main transmission channels of economic policies, namely of fiscal, monetary and wage policies, as well as open economy conditions on aggregate demand are examined, and placed in the European policy context. Building upon findings of the first empirical part, the macroeconomic policy mix of four prototype and major Eurozone economies is analysed for the period before and after the crisis. It is found that macroeconomic policy regimes contributed to the emergence and shifts in macroeconomic demand and growth regimes in core Eurozone economies during the considered period.