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4.2 Interdisciplinarity
(2024)
Bürger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall
(2024)
Wie viele Wahlkreise gewinnt welche Partei bei der Bundestagswahl? Diese Frage war im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 trotz des deutschen Mischwahlsystems unter Fachleuten wie auch einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit von besonderem Interesse. Diesem Bedarf an Vorhersagen bedient in jüngerer Zeit eine zunehmende Zahl von Prognosemodellen, die sich jedoch fast ausschließlich auf die Zweitstimme abzielen. Für Wahlkreise gibt es nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern auch in reinen Mehrheitswahlsystemen, kaum relevante Umfragen. Wir führten daher eine Wahlerwartungsumfrage durch, um den Wahlausgang in jedem einzelnen Bundestagswahlkreis zu prognostizieren. Wir nennen unseren Ansatz Bürger:innenprognose, weil er auf den Erwartungen der Bürger:innen über das Wahlverhalten ihrer Mitbürger:innen beruht und nicht auf deren selbstberichteten Wahlabsichten. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir unsere Bürger:innenprognose vor, evaluieren ihre Genauigkeit und vergleichen sie mit anderen Ansätzen zur Wahlprognose.
KI und datengesteuerte Kampagnen: Eine Diskussion der Rolle generativer KI im politischen Wahlkampf
(2023)
Social constructivism
(2023)
From a social constructivist perspective, NATO is not just another alliance or security institution, but the institutional embodiment of the transatlantic security community, which is based on a collective identity of liberal democracies. This collective identity serves as the main explanatory factor for social constructivist research dealing with NATO’s creation, its specific institutional design and its unique culture of consultation. It also helps understand NATO’s persistence after the end of the Cold War, its enlargement and its (liberal) out-of-area operations and missions in the post-Cold War period. Constructivism has become one of the key theoretical approaches in NATO research, offering a broader view of the Alliance and accounting for empirical anomalies that competitors fail to explain. Still, constructivist research has arguably not yet reached its full potential and could offer additional insights into NATO’s past, presence and future. These lacunae are addressed in the chapter.
The chapter examines ministerial advisory structures in Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands and discusses if and how their emergence and roles are linked to the Continental administrative tradition - one which emphasises the rule of law, and a procedural orientation within and political responsiveness of the standing bureaucracy. The chapter reviews the state of the research on ministerial advisers in the three countries and finds various similarities. In all three contexts ministerial advisory positions have emerged: however, they are less formalised and have received less attention than their counterparts in other parts of the world in recent years.
This chapter seeks to bridge existing research on the politicisation of top civil servants and the roles of ministerial advisers by proposing a new conceptual approach for the comparative analysis of executive policy-making. We conceive of the executive triangle as a set of interdependent relationships between ministers, civil servants, and advisers. Those relationships may take different forms, depending on the distinct tasks performed by each actor and their roles in policy-making, which define mutual expectations. Thus understood, the executive triangle is an institution performing particular functions in policy-making (such as assessing policy alternatives, anticipating political support, and coordinating with other actors both inside and outside government). Those functions are performed by actors within the triangle and reflected in their roles and their direct and indirect relationships. The chapter conceptually explores such a system-perspective on the executive triangle; sketches analytical dimensions for understanding similarities and differences of executive triangles across contexts; provides empirical illustrations of variations of the executive triangle in Europe; and develops a research agenda using this concept to better understand the roles of ministers, ministerial advisers, and top civil servants in executive policy-making in a comparative perspective.
Diasporas and Proxy Wars
(2023)
This chapter discusses the role of diasporas in connection with proxy wars. It argues that diaspora support differs from external state support in important ways, from the sources and motivations of support to the means and types of support provided. Diasporas are often drawn into the conflict by kinship support or feelings of guilt, and often send foreign fighters or financial support to their kin, rather than direct military support. Diasporas are also more susceptible to pressures by rebel groups to provide support, and their assistance tends to be more reliable than that of state sponsors. Finally, diasporas have greater stakes in reducing harm to civilians than most state supporters and will therefore be inclined to support long-term solutions, including those involving rebel governance.
In this chapter, we examine the issue of competence to confer residence and citizenship based on a donation or investment in the light of international and European law as they stand today. We show that the national competence to do this is part of the sovereign nature of the modern state, which implies the ability to create a people and delimit the scope of the population granted a right to settle in the national territory, underpinned by rules behind such delimitation. We also explain why investment migration per se cannot be presented as unlawful and outlines the avenues for the eventual disciplining of its offshoots in areas unrelated to migration as such, thus connecting particularly well with Peter Spiro’s analysis of relevant international law.
Diaspora communities are not homogeneous entities even if they are characterized as such for analytical convenience. Often, members of the diaspora carry their political attitudes from their country of origin, which the next generation might also inherit. Given that political preferences in the country of origin might vary significantly, members of the diaspora should also have different political preferences. To test this variation, we explore the internal cleavages of the Indian-American community using a national sample of 1,003 members of this community. We find significant differences by political identity, religion, age, and state of origin in India on evaluations of politicians and policy in India. Moreover, we find that Indian-Americans are not only divided in their attitudes towards politics in India, but that the same factors predict differences in evaluating both politicians and policy in the United States (US). Our results contribute to our understanding of Indian American attitudes, and also offer clues to how diaspora communities carry their political predispositions with them to their destination country, as well as how the diaspora remains as a vital element in – and stimulus on – Indian foreign policy.
Corruption and Development
(2023)
As the most powerful executive actor in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the Eurogroup has faced continuous demands to improve its accountability record since the euro crisis. One reform introduced to meet these demands were the Economic Dialogue – a regular exchange of views between the European Parliament and the President of the Eurogroup designed to ‘ensure greater transparency and accountability’ in the EMU. This chapter investigates the practical functioning of the Economic Dialogues with the Eurogroup between 2013 and the 2019 European Parliament elections. Applying the theoretical framework of the introduction, the purpose is to examine the extent to which the Parliament focuses on procedural or substantive accountability when questioning the Eurogroup President. Moreover, the chapter investigates the reasoning of parliamentary questions in line with the four accountability goods identified at the outset (openness, non-arbitrariness, effectiveness, and publicness). The findings show that Members of the European Parliament are eager to question the extent to which Eurogroup decisions are substantively open and effective, and to a lesser extent whether they are arbitrary or protect EU interests more generally. The analysis is based on fourteen transcripts of Economic Dialogues with the Eurogroup President, which took place between 2013 and 2019.
This chapter provides the volumes general conceptual framework. It begins by addressing why new approaches to accountability are needed, arguing that accountability literature has reached a stalemate as a result of an impasse between deductive and inductive approaches to accountability in the EU. It then argues that overcoming the stalemate requires developing a generalised framework of what accountability is for, deriving four accountability goods to be used in subsequent chapters. The chapter argues that each of the goods can be delivered in procedural or substantive ways, focusing either on the process by which decisions are made or the substantive worth of decisions themselves. The chapter concludes by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of both varieties of accountability before mapping out how the concepts will be applied across policy fields and institutions in subsequent chapters.
This chapter serves as the general introduction to the volume. It discusses two major impasses plaguing EMU in the 2020s: the first, a clash between politicization of EMU decisions, on the one hand, and an institutional structure designed to reject political conflict, on the other; the second, a scholarly impasse between those analysing EMU accountability comparatively and those doing so through EMU specific standards. The chapter briefly introduces the core concepts used in the volume as a means of overcoming this impasse: the distinction between procedural and substantive accountability as well as the normative goods framework developed in Chapter 1. It finally provides an overview of the structure and content of the volume, concluding with a plea to focus scholarly attention on EMUs substantive accountability deficits.