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This paper develops the following price indicators to measure the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets: (a) price dispersion, (b) price volatility, and (c) price transmission (speed, completeness, and symmetry). The paper uses these indicators to study trends and conditions of the outlet level in retail prices for common commodities sold throughout Mexico. The analysis examines price patterns for each indicator across commodities, regions, and time. The descriptive results indicate that although there is (expected) heterogeneity in the behavior of these indicators across commodities, location variables explain the most variation in the indicators. There are clear and persistent regional- and commodity-specific effects. Thus, the study concludes that Mexico is not one, well-integrated national market. The study tested whether changes in these indicators (increased efficiency) have the expected correlation with measures affecting the functioning of markets. It considered changes in competition and entry of large retail stores in the local retail market. These changes affect market efficiency in the way theory would predict. The results suggest that these indicators are good measures of the relative efficiency (functioning) of markets. The findings also suggest that efforts to monitor markets using these indicators may be useful. For example, for policy makers who are concerned about the distributional effects of liberalizing trade, the indicators may predict where price impacts will be felt the most and by whom. In addition, the indicators provide preliminary information about relative competition levels, which may be helpful in saving the time and effort of the competition authorities and possibly making them more effective.
Robots at the Tropics
(2018)
In recent years, a growing concern has emerged regarding the potential effects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotization on firms, and even more specifically on workers and the risks for their displacement (Brynjolfsson and McAfee, 2014; Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017; Graetz and Michaels, 2015, among others). The emphasis of current research studies has been driven by the rapid decrease in the prices of robots, that according to Graetz and Michaels (2015) fell by 2005 to one fifth of its 1990 level adjusting for quality. Consequently, utilization of robots has increased in a wide range of different industries, with the operational stock of robots doubled between 2005 and 2016, reaching 1,828,024 units by the end of 2016 and expected to reach three millions by 2020 (International Federation of Robotics, 2017).
The evidence on the impact of robots on the global economy is still very limited and the results of recent studies exhibit great differences. For example, while Frey and Osborne (2017) indicate that the number of jobs that are in risk of automation could account for around 50%, Arntz et al.(2017) argue that this figure is overestimated due to the fact that the heterogeneity of tasks within occupations is not considered, which would reduce this number to around 9%.
Personal initiative training—a psychology-based mindset training program—delivers lasting improvements for female business owners in Togo. Which types of women benefit most? Theories of dynamic complementarity would suggest training should work better for those with higher pre-existing human capital, but there are also reasons why existing human capital might inhibit training participation or substitute for its effects. We examine the heterogeneity in treatment impact according to different types of human capital. We find little evidence of either complementarities or substitutability, suggesting this new business training approach can work for a wide range of human capital levels.
Who are the female entrepreneurs who end up starting and completing entrepreneurial training programs? In this paper, relying on a large set of baseline characteristics collected before the entrepreneurs are selected into an entrepreneurial training program in Mexico, we analyze how the women entrepreneurs who complete the training program differ from those who do not take it up, as well as how those who take it up but drop off before completing differ from those who do not even start. We uncover large differences in performance and non-cognitive skills but no differences in inputs used.
Personal Initiative Training Leads to Remarkable Growth of Women-Owned Small Businesses in Togo
(2018)
Standard business training programs aim to boost the incomes of the millions of self-employed business owners in developing countries, by teaching accounting, marketing and other basic business skills. However, research shows limited impacts of this traditional business training approach. Through an experiment in Togo, we introduced the personal initiative training program, a new and effective psychology-based entrepreneurship training that outperforms traditional business training. The personal initiative training increased firm profits in Togo by 30 percent relative to a control group, compared to no significant impacts from a traditional business training. Personal initiative training led to more than just a boost in profits for micro entrepreneurs. After the training business owners were more innovative, introduced new products, borrowed more and made larger investments. The personal initiative training was particularly effective for female entrepreneurs, for whom traditional training has often been in effective. Women who received personal initiative training saw their profits increase by 40 percent, compared to 5 percent for traditional business. This study’s findings make a strong case for the role of psychology in better influencing how small business training programs are taught in West Africa and beyond. It shows the importance of developing an entrepreneurial mindset in addition to learning the business practices of successful entrepreneurs. Based on these promising results, the personal initiative training is being implemented in programs in Mozambique, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Jamaica, and Mexico.
Teaching personal initiative beats traditional training in boosting small business in West Africa
(2017)
Standard business training programs aim to boost the incomes of the millions of self-employed business owners in developing countries by teaching basic financial and marketing practices, yet the impacts of such programs are mixed. We tested whether a psychology-based personal initiative training approach, which teaches a proactive mindset and focuses on entrepreneurial behaviors, could have more success. A randomized controlled trial in Togo assigned microenterprise owners to a control group (n = 500), a leading business training program (n = 500), or a personal initiative training program (n = 500). Four follow-up surveys tracked outcomes for firms over 2 years and showed that personal initiative training increased firm profits by 30%, compared with a statistically insignificant 11% for traditional training. The training is cost-effective, paying for itself within 1 year.
Entrepreneurs that voluntarily choose to start a business because they are able to identify a good business opportunity and act on it -- opportunity entrepreneurs -- might be different along various dimensions from those who are forced to become entrepreneurs because of lack of other alternatives -- necessity entrepreneurs. To provide evidence on these differences, this paper exploits a unique data set covering a wide array of characteristics, including cognitive skills, non-cognitive skills and managerial practices, for a large sample of female entrepreneurs in Mexico. Descriptive results show that on average opportunity entrepreneurs have better performance and higher skills than necessity entrepreneurs. A discriminant analysis reveals that discrimination is difficult to achieve based on these observables, which suggests the existence of unobservables driving both the decision to become an opportunity entrepreneur and performance. Thus, an instrumental variables estimation is conducted, using state economic growth in the year the business was set up as an instrument for opportunity, to confirm that opportunity entrepreneurs have higher performance and better management practices.
Uses firm-level data from the manufacturing sector in Colombia, Mexico, and the United States, in the past decade, to investigate the extent to which aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector is driven by growth in productivity at the firm level or by reallocation of employment shares across firms. The evaluation produced results that stress a focus on firm-level productivity growth, as this has contributed the most to overall productivity growth. Reallocation between firms, within sectors, results in a weak force of productivity growth, and reallocation between sectors an even weaker source of growth. Although firms converge toward the domestic frontier with spillovers arising from the growth of the domestic frontier, no convergence occurs with respect to the global frontier. For all countries analyzed, the most important determinant of productivity convergence at the firm level remains innovation effort, measured as the firm-level expenditure shares in innovation and investment in capital equipment.
This paper examines whether labor productivity converged across Peru’s regions (“departments”) during 2002-12. Given the large differences in labor productivity across the regions of Peru, such convergence has the potential to raise aggregate productivity and incomes, and also reduce regional inequalities. The paper finds that labor productivity in the secondary sector (especially manufacturing) and the mining sector has converged across Peruvian departments. The paper does not find robust evidence for labor productivity convergence in agriculture and services. These patterns are consistent with recent cross-country evidence and with the hypothesis that productivity convergence is more likely in sectors with greater scope for market integration, because of the effects of competition and knowledge flows. The convergence in labor productivity within manufacturing and mining has been sufficient to lead to convergence in aggregate labor productivity across departments. But because services and agriculture continue to employ the majority of workers in Peru, aggregate convergence is slower than that within manufacturing. The paper also finds that poverty rates are not converging across departments. The limited impact of labor productivity convergence on poverty could be tied to the facts that not all sectors are experiencing productivity convergence, poorer people are employed in sectors where convergence has been slower (such as agriculture), and there is very little labor reallocation toward converging sectors (such as manufacturing).