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This paper validates the fertility histories of the German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). Focusing on the cohorts 1930-69 of West German women, the total number of children, the parity distribution and the parity progression ratios are compared to external sources. One major result from this validation is that the German GGS understates the fertility for the older cohorts and overstates it for the younger ones. We presume that two mechanisms are responsible for this pattern in the German GGS: On the one hand, children who have left parental home are underreported in the retrospective fertility histories. On the other hand, women with small children are easier to reach by the interviewer. These two mechanisms taken together produce too low numbers of children for the older and too high ones for the younger cohorts. Extending the validation to marital histories has revealed a similar bias. Our general conclusion from this investigation is that the German GGS may not be used for statistical analyses of cohort fertility and marriage trends. For subsequent surveys, we suggest integrating simple control questions in questionnaires with complex retrospective fertility and union histories.
Fertility reactions to the "Great Recession" in Europe : Recent evidence from oder-specific data
(2013)
Objective: This paper provides recent cross-national evidence of the impact of the great recession on fertility in Europe in the context of the recent decade.
Methods: Using data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), from Eurostat, and from the OECD database, we employ fixed-effects modeling to study how changes in unemployment rates have affected birth rates across Europe.
Results: We find that countries that were hit hard by the recession show reduced fertility when compared with a continuation of recent trends, especially at younger ages.
Conclusions: Our results indicate a strong relationship between economic conditions and fertility. However, there is variation by region, age, and parity suggesting the importance of life course and institutional factors.
Der Datenreport, den die bpb zusammen mit dem Statistischen Bundesamt, dem Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin und dem Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 2013 in der 14. Auflage herausgibt, gehört zu den Standardwerken für all jene, die sich schnell und verlässlich über statistische Daten und sozialwissenschaftliche Analysen zu den aktuellen gesellschaftlichen Entwicklungen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland informieren wollen. Journalisten, Studierende, aber auch Fachleute aus Wissenschaft, Politik, Wirtschaft und Verwaltung erhalten mit dem Datenreport ein übersichtlich gestaltetes Handbuch, das sie mit den notwendigen Zahlen, Fakten und Argumenten versorgt, um an den öffentlichen Debatten zu den wirtschaftlichen, sozialen und politischen Trends in unserem Lande teilzunehmen. (Angabe zum Buch)
Der Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die Potentiale des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) und des Mikrozensus für kontextuelle Analysen im Bereich der Bildungsforschung. Wir betrachten die Möglichkeiten und auch Grenzen, welche mit diesen beiden Datensätzen verbunden sind. Sie heben sich dadurch hervor, dass eine Berücksichtigung des Familien- und Haushaltskontextes möglich ist und die Datensätze in unterschiedlichem Ausmaß die Abbildung von institutionellen und regionalen Kontexten zulassen. Die Datensätze weisen unterschiedliche Stärken auf, die sich auch aus den hohen Fallzahlen des Mikrozensus oder der längsschnittlichen Betrachtung von Haushalten im SOEP ergeben. Da die verfügbaren Daten bis in die 1970er bzw. 1980er Jahre zurückreichen, bieten beide Datensätze Potentiale zur Analyse des Bildungsverhaltens in sich wandelnden Kontexten. Im Beitrag werden Analysebeispiele aus dem Bereich der frühen Bildung vorgestellt. In einem Ausblick diskutieren wir kurz zukünftige Analysepotentiale der Datensätze.
In fast allen europäischen Ländern bleiben heute mehr Männer und Frauen kinderlos als vor zwei oder drei Jahrzehnten. In Westdeutschland werden voraussichtlich mehr als 20 Prozent der 1965 geborenen Frauen und möglicherweise 30 Prozent der höher gebildeten Frauen des gleichen Jahrgangs ohne eigene Kinder bleiben. Das Thema Kinderlosigkeit hat in der jüngsten Zeit eine erhebliche öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit erweckt, jedoch steht die in Medien und Politik geführte Debatte auf wackeligen Füßen. Die dort verwendeten Zahlen zum Ausmaß der Kinderlosigkeit von Männern und Frauen in unserer Gesellschaft gehen weit auseinander und die vermuteten Ursachen der hohen Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland sind widersprüchlich. Sind wirtschaftliche Unsicherheiten, schlechte Bedingungen der Vereinbarkeit von Familie und Beruf oder einseitig karriereorientierte Lebenskonzepte von Frauen, insbesondere Akademikerinnen, für die hohe Kinderlosigkeit verantwortlich? Fehlt ‚nur‘ ein geeigneter Lebenspartner oder, wenn vorhanden, fehlt diesem das Interesse an Familie
Familie und Lebensformen
(2013)
Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: Evidence from Denmark and Germany
(2014)
Studies that have investigated the role of unemployment in childbearing decisions have often shown no or only barely significant results. We argue that many of these “non-findings” may be attributed to a neglect of group-specific differences in behavior. In this study, we examine how the association of unemployment and fertility varies by socio-demographic subgroups using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and from Danish population registers. We find that male unemployment is related to a postponement of first and second childbearing in both countries. The role of female unemployment is less clear at these two parities. Both male and female unemployment is positively correlated with third birth risks. More importantly, our results show that there are strong educational gradients in the unemployment and fertility nexus, and that the relationship between unemployment and fertility varies by socioeconomic group. Fertility tends to be lower during periods of unemployment among highly educated women and men, but not among their less educated counterparts.
Auf dem Stand der Forschung präsentiert die fachlich ausgewiesene Herausgeberschaft das Forschungsgebiet der Bevölkerungssoziologie. In vier großen Themenblöcken vermessen die Autoren den Stand der Forschung: Nach einer ausführlichen Überblick über die Themen, Theorien und Daten dieses Themas beschäftigen sich die Autoren mit den Fragen nach Fertilität und Familie, Migration und Mobilität sowie der Frage nach Mortalität und Pflege. Der Band richtet sich an alle, die sich mit Fragen der Bevölkerungssoziologie beschäftigen und einen schnellen Einstieg in den Stand der Forschung benötigen. (Verlagstext)
Trotz der offensichtlichen sozialpolitischen Relevanz und großen medialen Aufmerksamkeit des Phänomens Kinderlosigkeit sind das Ausmaß, die Ursachen und die Konsequenzen der Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland bislang unzureichend untersucht worden, mit der Folge, dass in öffentlichen Debatten eine unkritische Verwendung irreführender, wenn nicht falscher Angaben über Kinderlosigkeit vorherrscht. Das Ziel des Bandes besteht vor diesem Hintergrund darin, das Phänomen der Kinderlosigkeit in Deutschland analytisch differenziert zu durchdringen und belastbare Daten und Ergebnisse über das Ausmaß und die Struktur, die Ursachen und Folgen von Kinderlosigkeit zu präsentieren.
Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility-related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi-natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German-speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.
Couples who have children are increasingly likely to have lived together without being married at some point in their relationship. Some couples begin their unions with cohabitation and marry before first conception, some marry during pregnancy or directly after the first birth, while others remain unmarried 3 years after the first birth. Using union and fertility histories since the 1970s for eleven countries, we examine whether women who have children in unions marry, and if so, at what stage in family formation. We also examine whether women who conceive when cohabiting are more likely to marry or separate. We find that patterns of union formation and childbearing develop along different trajectories across countries. In all countries, however, less than 40 per cent of women remained in cohabitation up to 3 years after the first birth, suggesting that marriage remains the predominant institution for raising children.
This paper provides an overview of fertility data for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the availability of order-specific fertility data. The authors discuss the quality of data provided by the Statistical Offices, both birth registration data and censuses or microcensuses. In addition, they explore how social science surveys can be used to generate order-specific fertility indicators, and compare survey fertility estimates with estimates from vital statistics. Prior studies have shown that there is a 'family bias' in most surveys, with the fertility of younger cohorts being overstated, because respondents with young children are easier to reach by interviewers. The authors' assessment of various types of surveys from the three countries mostly supports this notion. The 'family bias' is most pronounced in family surveys in contrast to all-purpose surveys. Weighting data does not fully cure the 'family bias', which the authors attribute to the fact that the number of children is usually not considered a factor in calculating sample weights, as provided by the survey agencies and Statistical Offices. The confounding role of migration in the production of reliable and comparable fertility statistics is also discussed.
Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the nearly constant rates seen in the West. By 2008, the TFR of East Germany had overtaken that of the West. We explore why fertility in East Germany is higher than in West Germany, despite unfavorable economic circumstances in the East. We address this and related questions by (a) presenting an account of the persisting East/West differences in attitudes toward and constraints on childbearing, (b) conducting an order-specific fertility analysis of recent fertility trends, and (c) projecting completed fertility for the recent East and west German cohorts. In addition to using the Human Fertility Database, perinatal statistics allow us to calculate a tempo-corrected TFR for East and West Germany.
Der Band zeigt aktuelle Entwicklungen und greift familien- sowie paarsoziologische Diskurse und Kontroversen auf. Er informiert über Familienrealitäten, Geschlechterverhältnisse, Leitbildwandel und Alltagspraxen in Familie und Paar. Die Beiträge bieten dem Fachpublikum sowie Studierenden Überblick über den aktuellen Diskussionsstand und laden ein zur vertiefenden (Eigen-)Forschung. (Buchinhalt, Verlagstext)
This paper documents how to generate consistent education, employment, fertility and residential careers from the Russian Employment and Education Survey (EES). We describe how we imputed missing or inaccurate data. Furthermore, we estimate a first birth model to demonstrate how this data could be used for event history modelling. A sensitivity analysis shows that the results are very stable in respect to the imputation of missing dates. Data is organized in spell or episode format. For manipulating the data, we used the software STATA 10.0.
The Human Fertility Database (HFD) is a joint project of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock, Germany and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) in Vienna, Austria, based at MPIDR. We seek to provide free and user-friendly access to detailed and high-quality data on period and cohort fertility and thus to facilitate research on changes and inter-country differences in fertility in the past and in the modern era. The HFD is entirely based on official vital statistics and places a great emphasis on data checking and documentation and on warranting data comparability across time and countries by means of uniform methodology