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The global spread of Covid-19 has caused major economic disruptions. Governments around the world provide considerable financial support to mitigate the economic downturn. However, effective policy responses require reliable data on the economic consequences of the corona pandemic. We propose the CoRisk-Index: a real-time economic indicator of corporate risk perceptions related to Covid-19. Using data mining, we analyse all reports from US companies filed since January 2020, representing more than a third of the US workforce. We construct two measures—the number of ‘corona’ words in each report and the average text negativity of the sentences mentioning corona in each industry—that are aggregated in the CoRisk-Index. The index correlates with U.S. unemployment rates across industries and with an established market volatility measure, and it preempts stock market losses of February 2020. Moreover, thanks to topic modelling and natural language processing techniques, the CoRisk data provides highly granular data on different dimensions of the crisis and the concerns of individual industries. The index presented here helps researchers and decision makers to measure risk perceptions of industries with regard to Covid-19, bridging the quantification gap between highly volatile stock market dynamics and long-term macroeconomic figures. For immediate access to the data, we provide all findings and raw data on an interactive online dashboard.
While the coronavirus spreads, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with such policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are most in need of support. In this study, we introduce a data-mining approach to measure industry-specific risks related to COVID-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This alternative data set can complement more traditional economic indicators in times of the fast-evolving crisis as it allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings suggest that the companies' awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments. Our approach allows to distinguish the industries by their risk awareness towards COVID-19. Based on natural language processing, we identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. The preliminary findings are summarised as an up-to-date online index. The CoRisk-Index tracks the industry-specific risk assessments related to the crisis, as it spreads through the economy. The tracking tool is updated weekly. It could provide relevant empirical data to inform models on the economic effects of the crisis. Such complementary empirical information could ultimately help policymakers to effectively target financial support in order to mitigate the economic shocks of the crisis.
Immunotherapy is currently revolutionizing the treatment of cancer. Detailed analyses of tumor immune cell interaction in the tumor microenvironment will facilitate an accurate prediction of a patient’s clinical response. The automatic and reliable pre-screening of histological tissue sections for tumor infiltrating immune cells (TILs) will support the development of TIL-based predictive biomarkers for checkpoint immunotherapy. In this paper, a learning approach for image classification is presented, which allows various pattern inquires for different types of tissue section images. The underlying trainable reaction diffusion model combines classification and denoising. The model is trained using a stochastic generation of training data. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated for immunofluorescent and for Hematoxylin and Eosin (H&E) stained melanoma section images. A particular focus is on the classification of TILs in the proximity to melanoma cells in an experimental melanoma mouse model and in human melanoma. This new learning approach for images of melanoma tissue sections will refine the strategy for the practical clinical application of biomarker research.
Purpose
Cancers are almost always diagnosed by morphologic features in tissue sections. In this context, machine learning tools provide new opportunities to describe tumor immune cell interactions within the tumor microenvironment and thus provide phenotypic information that might be predictive for the response to immunotherapy.
Methods
We develop a machine learning approach using variational networks for joint image denoising and classification of tissue sections for melanoma, which is an established model tumor for immuno-oncology research. The manual annotation of real training data would require substantial user interaction of experienced pathologists for each single training image, and the training of larger networks would rely on a very large number of such data sets with ground truth annotation. To overcome this bottleneck, we synthesize training data together with a proper tissue structure classification. To this end, a stochastic data generation process is used to mimic cell morphology, cell distribution and tissue architecture in the tumor microenvironment. Particular components of this tool are random placement and rotation of a large number of patches for presegmented cell nuclei, a stochastic fast marching approach to mimic the geometry of cells and texture generation based on a color covariance analysis of real data. Here, the generated training data reflect a large range of interaction patterns.
Results
In several applications to histological tissue sections, we analyze the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach. As a result, depending on the scenario considered, almost all cells and nuclei which ought to be detected are actually marked as classified and hardly any misclassifications occur.
Conclusions
The proposed method allows for a computer-aided screening of histological tissue sections utilizing variational networks with a particular emphasis on tumor immune cell interactions and on the robust cell nuclei classification.
Multi-body interactions can reveal higher-order dynamical effects that are not captured by traditional two-body network models. In this work, we derive and analyse models for consensus dynamics on hypergraphs, where nodes interact in groups rather than in pairs. Our work reveals that multi-body dynamical effects that go beyond rescaled pairwise interactions can only appear if the interaction function is non-linear, regardless of the underlying multi-body structure. As a practical application, we introduce a specific non-linear function to model three-body consensus, which incorporates reinforcing group effects such as peer pressure. Unlike consensus processes on networks, we find that the resulting dynamics can cause shifts away from the average system state. The nature of these shifts depends on a complex interplay between the distribution of the initial states, the underlying structure and the form of the interaction function. By considering modular hypergraphs, we discover state-dependent, asymmetric dynamics between polarised clusters where multi-body interactions make one cluster dominate the other.
We introduce and analyse a three-body consensus model (3CM) for non-linear consensus dynamics on hypergraphs. Our model incorporates reinforcing group effects, which can cause shifts in the average state of the system even in if the underlying graph is complete (corresponding to a mean-field interaction), a phenomena that may be interpreted as a type of peer pressure. We further demonstrate that for systems with two clustered groups, already a small asymmetry in our dynamics can lead to the opinion of one group becoming clearly dominant. We show that the nonlinearity in the model is the essential ingredient to make such group dynamics appear, and demonstrate how our system can otherwise be written as a linear, pairwise interaction system on a rescaled network.
The basic interaction unit of many dynamical systems involves more than two nodes. In such situations where networks are not an appropriate modelling framework, it has recently become increasingly popular to turn to higher-order models, including hypergraphs. In this paper, we explore the non-linear dynamics of consensus on hypergraphs, allowing for interactions within hyperedges of any cardinality. After discussing the different ways in which non-linearities can be incorporated in the dynamical model, building on different sociological theories, we explore its mathematical properties and perform simulations to investigate them numerically. After focussing on synthetic hypergraphs, namely on block hypergraphs, we investigate the dynamics on real-world structures, and explore in detail the role of involvement and stubbornness on polarisation.
Network analysis provides powerful tools to learn about a variety of social systems. However, most analyses implicitly assume that the considered data is error-free and reliable. Especially if the network consists of multiple groups, this assumption conflicts with the range of systematic reporting biases, measurement errors and other inaccuracies that are well documented in our community. In this paper, we model how such systematic uncertainty on edges of an attributed network can impact network analysis, in particular the ranking of nodes. We discuss how erroneous edge observations can be driven by external node attributes and the relative edge positions in the network, thereby opening a path towards a systematic study of the effects of edge-uncertainty for various network analysis tasks. To show how conclusions drawn from network analyses can get distorted due to such inaccuracies, we focus on the effects of edge-uncertainty on minority group representations in degree-based rankings. For that purpose, we analyze synthetic and real networks with varying homophily and group sizes. We find that introducing edge uncertainty can significantly alter the relative density of networks and result both in a strongly increased or decreased ranking of the minority, depending on the type of edge error and homophily. Our model enables researchers to include systematic edge-uncertainty in their analyses and thereby better account for the role of minorities in social networks.