Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing "bourgeois conviction" that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990-2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.
Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this topic is still limited.
Objective: This special collection of Demographic Research focuses on the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe.
Methods: The collection is comprised of studies that explore how various dimensions of employment uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are related to the fertility and family formation of women and men across Europe. The studies cover Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel.
Results: The various micro-level studies that are assembled in this special collection do not provide a simple answer to the question of whether and how economic uncertainty suppresses (or stimulates) fertility. However, some systematic variation by welfare state regime is discernable.
Conclusions: Given the recent economic volatility in Europe, we expect that labor market uncertainties will remain an important component of explanations of fertility developments in the 21st century.