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To accept carbon pricing, citizens desire viable alternatives to fossil-fuel based options. As inflation and higher interest rates have exacerbated access barriers for capital-intensive green substitutes, the political success of carbon pricing will be measured by how well policy design enables consumers to switch.
This chapter presents a microeconomic, behavioral perspective on bounded rationality and beliefs. It begins with an account of how research on belief biases, in particular via probabilistic belief elicitation, has become mainstream in economics only relatively recently and late, even in behavioral economics (aka “psychology and economics”). The chapter then offers a review of the decision-theoretic foundations of modeling and eliciting (subjective) beliefs as probabilities, as well as selected—both classic and recent—evidence on humans’ bounded rationality from related research in psychology and economics. In doing so, it connects the historical debates within decision theory, on the one hand, and within psychology, on the other, concerning the normative status of expected utility and Bayesianism, as well as its methodological implications. A conclusion draws lessons for the practice of belief elicitation and future research.
While psychotherapy has been shown to be effective in treating depression, take-up remains low. In a sample of 1,843 depressed individuals, we document that effectiveness concerns are top-of-mind when respondents consider the value of therapy. We then show that the average respondent underestimates the effectiveness of therapy and that an information treatment correcting this misperception increases participants’ incentivized willingness to pay for therapy. Information affects therapy demand by changing beliefs rather than by shifting attention. Our results suggest that information interventions that target the perceived effectiveness of therapy are a potent tool in combating the ongoing mental health crisis.
This paper studies a key element of discrimination, namely when stereotypes translate into discriminatory actions. Using a hiring experiment, we rule out taste-based discrimination by design and test for the presence of two types of belief-based gender discrimination. We document evidence of explicit discriminators—individuals who are willing to discriminate even when their hiring choices are highly revealing of their gender-biased beliefs. Crucially, we also identify implicit discriminators—individuals who do not discriminate against women when taking a discriminatory action is highly revealing of their biased beliefs, but do discriminate against women when their biased motive is obscured. Our analysis highlights the central role played by features of the choice environment in determining whether and how discrimination will manifest. We conclude by discussing the implications for policy design.
Transnational Constitutionalism is a sociological given and a legal challenge. We observe the emergence of ever more legally-framed transnational arrangements with ever more power and impact. Does this kind of rule ‘deserve recognition’? Is it at all conceivable that the proprium of law can be defended against the rise of its informal competitors? This essay opts for a third way which neither listens to the siren songs on law beyond the state nor to the defences of nation-state constitutionalism as the monopolist of legitimate rule. The alternative submitted suggests that transnational legal ordering of the EU should build upon its re-conceptualisation as a ‘three-dimensional conflicts-law’ with a democracy-enhancing potential. This re-construction operationalises the ‘united in diversity’ motto of the Draft Constitutional Treaty of 2004. It preserves essential accomplishments of Europe’s constitutional democracies. It provides for co-operative problem-solving of transnational regulatory tasks, and it retains supervisory powers over national and transnational arrangements of private governance.
How do households perceive the forecasting performance of the central bank? Using two novel experiments embedded in the Bundesbank's Survey on Consumer Expectations (total $N=9500$), this article shows that the majority of German households underestimate the ECB's inflation forecasting accuracy. In particular, they believe that the ECB is overly optimistic. Communication that challenges these perceptions improves the anchoring of inflation expectations, reduces inflation uncertainty and discourages consumption of durable goods. Treated households also report higher trust in the ECB, perceive the ECB's inflation target as more credible, the ECB's communication as more honest, and the ECB's policy as more beneficial to them. Finally, the causal effect of central bank trust on inflation expectations is quantified using instruments to deal with endogeneity.
This working paper aims to examine the ‘displacement regime complex’, displacement referring to both internally and externally displaced persons, taking into account the competing roles of UNHCR and IOM in both spheres of activity. The title of the paper ‘Reform for protection’, aims to outline institutional reforms that aim to increase protection for the displaced, informed by binding universal human rights standards, and institutional principles relating to accountability and participation of most affected populations.
This report explores the refugee recognition regime in Niger. Quantitatively, Niger is the most important transit and refugee host country in West Africa. Niger is also at the forefront of debates on migration management in the region, as it is presented by International Organisations and states of the Global North as an alternative destination to the limited refugee protection in Libya and North Africa. Against the background of a relative dearth of literature on refugee recognition regimes (RRR) in (West) Africa and generally the Global South, this study draws on ethnographic field research and desk research to analyse the norms, institutions, modes of recognition, quality of recognition processes and of protection in Niger. This report’s research was completed in July 2021 and except a few data points, does not include any developments thereafter.