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Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing "bourgeois conviction" that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990-2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.
Welfare state context, female labour-market attachment and childbearing in Germany and Denmark
(2014)
This study investigates the role of female labour-market attachment and earnings in childbearing progressions in two very different European contexts. By applying event-history techniques to German and Danish register data during 1981–2001, we demonstrate how female earnings relate to first, second and third birth propensities. Our study shows that female earnings are positively associated with first birth fertility in Denmark, while this is not the case in West Germany. We interpret our findings based on the fact that Danish social context and policy encourage women to establish themselves in the labour market before becoming mothers, while the German institutional context during the 1980s and 1990s was not geared towards encouraging maternal employment. For higher-order births, the results are less clearcut. For Denmark we find a slightly positive correlation between female earnings and second-birth fertility, while the association is somewhat negative for third-order births. In Germany, women tend to leave the labour market when becoming mothers. Non-employed mothers have elevated second and, in particular, third-birth rates. For the group of mothers who are employed, we find only a weak association between their earnings and higher-order fertility.
Until 2008, Germany’s vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at fi rst birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specifi c birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using Perinatal Statistics to generate birth order-specific fertility rates for the period 2001 to 2008. Perinatal Statistics includes information on births that took place in German hospitals. Out-of-hospital births, which account for about 2 % of all births, are not included in the Perinatal Statistics. In a sensitivity analysis, we show how robust our estimates are to the inclusion of out-of-hospital births. Our general assessment is that the Perinatal Statistics is a valuable source for generating order-specific fertility rates, regardless of whether out-of-hospital births are included.
Parity Specific Birth Rates for West Germany: An Attempt to Combine Survey Data and Vital Statistics
(2002)
In this paper, we combine vital statistics and survey data to obtain parity specific birth rates for West Germany. Since vital statistics do not provide birth parity information, one is confined to using estimates. The robustness of these estimates is an issue, which is unfortunately only rarely addressed when fertility indicators for (West) Germany are reported. In order to check how reliable our results are, we estimate confidence intervals and compare them to results from survey data and estimations conducted by the German Statistical Office. Although our estimations show a similar trend, the magnitude of some fertility indicators differs substantially from the ones reported in other studies. However, estimations from other studies do not give a consistent picture of German fertility, either.
This paper investigates the role of women’s education in the transition to the second child using data from the 1997 German micro-census. We begin our analysis with a simple model, which shows a positive effect of woman’s education on the transition rate to the second child for West German women. We argue that this effect is most likely confounded by various factors. Firstly, we assume that there is a time-squeeze effect, which increases the transition rate to the second child for more highly educated women. Secondly, titled as the partner hypothesis, we argue that more highly educated women often live with more highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a large family. Thirdly, titled as the selection hypothesis, we argue that the positive effect of women’s education can be attributed to a selection effect, i.e. familyoriented college graduates are more likely to select themselves into the group of women
at risk of second birth. The empirical investigations particularly support the second and third hypotheses. After controlling for the partner’s characteristics and including unobserved heterogeneity factors, the positive effect of female education becomes strongly negative.
Like other Eastern Europeancountries, East Germany experienced a rapiddecline in period fertility rates after thefall of communism. This decline has beendiscussed along the lines of a ‘crisis’ andan ‘adaptation’ to western demographic patterns. The aim of this paper istwofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors whichfoster and hamper a convergence of fertilitybehaviour in East and West Germany. Secondly,we use data from the German micro-census toanalyse the fertility patterns of the cohortsborn 1961–1970. The main result of ourempirical analysis is that East Germans whowere still childless at the time of unificationare quicker to have their first child in thesubsequent years than comparable West Germans. However, regarding second parity births, thepattern reverses. Here, East Germans display alower transition rate than their counterpartsin the West.
This paper compares the determinants of the transition to the second child in Western Germany and Great Britain, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We test a number of explanations for the positive effect of educational attainment on second birth risks; this effect has been reported for both countries. Owing to differences in the welfare state context, we expect that the factors responsible for the positive education effect differ between the two countries. Our findings, however, provide only partial support for this expectation.
This paper investigates whether uncertainties in female employment careers result in a postponement of family formation. Data for this analysis comes from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which provides longitudinal information on economic uncertainty and fertility for the period 1984 to 2006. We employ objective measures of uncertainty (unemployment) as well as subjective measures (whether the respondent is worried about her economic situation, whether she is worried about the security of her job). We find little evidence that uncertainties in female employment careers generally lead to a postponement of parenthood. Hence, the relationship between economic uncertainty and first birth varies by level of education. While more highly educated postpone parenthood when subject to employment uncertainties, women with low levels of education often respond to these situations by becoming mothers.
This paper provides an overview of fertility data for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the availability of order-specific fertility data. The authors discuss the quality of data provided by the Statistical Offices, both birth registration data and censuses or microcensuses. In addition, they explore how social science surveys can be used to generate order-specific fertility indicators, and compare survey fertility estimates with estimates from vital statistics. Prior studies have shown that there is a 'family bias' in most surveys, with the fertility of younger cohorts being overstated, because respondents with young children are easier to reach by interviewers. The authors' assessment of various types of surveys from the three countries mostly supports this notion. The 'family bias' is most pronounced in family surveys in contrast to all-purpose surveys. Weighting data does not fully cure the 'family bias', which the authors attribute to the fact that the number of children is usually not considered a factor in calculating sample weights, as provided by the survey agencies and Statistical Offices. The confounding role of migration in the production of reliable and comparable fertility statistics is also discussed.
Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this topic is still limited.
Objective: This special collection of Demographic Research focuses on the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe.
Methods: The collection is comprised of studies that explore how various dimensions of employment uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are related to the fertility and family formation of women and men across Europe. The studies cover Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel.
Results: The various micro-level studies that are assembled in this special collection do not provide a simple answer to the question of whether and how economic uncertainty suppresses (or stimulates) fertility. However, some systematic variation by welfare state regime is discernable.
Conclusions: Given the recent economic volatility in Europe, we expect that labor market uncertainties will remain an important component of explanations of fertility developments in the 21st century.