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The first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy and its financial leg, the European Defence Industrial Programme, saw the light of day in March 2024. The strategy seeks to ameliorate deficiencies in EU defence readiness identified in light of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It offers an ambitious agenda and tailor-made incentives designed to encourage EU member states to invest more, better, together, and European. The Jacques Delors Institute’s Associate Research Fellow Thierry Tardy and the Jacques Delors Centre’s Security Policy Fellow Sascha Ostanina argue that the strategy is a good start to motivate European countries for more action in the defence sector. However, as long as the EU fails to take on a larger defence mandate via treaty change, the strategy success will hinge upon whether the member states, and their respective industrial defence sectors, will be willing to step up to the plate.
Current security guarantees for Ukraine range from unavailable to ineffective, writes Sascha Ostanina. She proposes a middle-ground solution to provide collective security for Ukraine through a binding self-defence agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Such an agreement would provide Ukraine with access to weapons and ammunition in the event of Russian aggression.
The EU Military Assistance Mission in Support of Ukraine (EUMAM UA) is designed to support Ukraine’s army in its fight against Russia’s invasion. A two-year mission envisions training 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers on Western weapons systems and aims to maximise the utility of military assistance provided to Ukraine by its international partners. Can EUMAM UA provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage that wins the war? In this policy brief, Sascha Ostanina argues that EUMAM UA requires a longer mandate for Ukrainian troops to overcome real-life constraints. Consequently, the training mission’s cumulative impact can turn EUMAM UA into one of the key components of Ukraine’s battlefield successes. To increase its cumulative impact, the EU should also standardise the content of EUMAM UA courses and merge EUMAM UA with other EU military aid measures set up for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction represents a mammoth task. Its successful implementation will depend, inter alia, on Ukraine’s ability to attract private sector support for its reconstruction projects. To enhance the country’s investment attractiveness, the European Commission put forward a €50bn Ukraine Facility proposal for 2024-2027. Will this initiative suffice to uncover Ukraine’s investment potential? In this policy brief, Sascha Ostanina maps proposed EU investment incentives for Ukraine and analyses shortcomings in the current approach. Fine-tuning its assistance mechanisms requires the EU to help Ukraine set-up insurance mechanisms, expand sector-specific SME financing mechanisms, and to prioritise Ukraine’s access to the EU single market. Getting this right could not only mobilise private investment for Ukraine’s reconstruction, but also streamline Ukraine’s accession to the EU.