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Despite a broad consensus in the EU on the necessity of enlargement, it is far from a done deal. Especially the financial implications a Ukraine accession pose uncertainties. In our policy paper, Johannes Lindner, Thu Nguyen and Romy Hansum show that the next enlargement round would have less of an impact on the EU budget than is generally assumed. This is largely because the EU’s multiannual financial framework (MFF) has inherent adaptation mechanisms to mitigate significant fluctuations. At the same time, we stress that is impossible to predict precisely what the EU’s MFF, under which accession will happen, will look like as the rules and allocations are subject to political negotiations. Lastly, enlargement is not the only issue adding pressure on the EU budget in a Union that faces huge challenges.
Die Europäische Union muss sich erweitern, möchte sie ihre unmittelbare Nachbarschaft stabilisieren und dem Einfluss Russlands in der Region vorbeugen. In dieser Policy Position argumentiert Thu Nguyen, dass jedoch sowohl künftige Mitgliedstaaten als auch die EU für die Erweiterung bereit sein müssen. Dazu braucht es Reformen, vor allem in drei Bereichen: Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Handlungsfähigkeit und EU-Haushalt.
Hungary is set to take over the EU Council presidency in the second half of 2024. Given the state of the rule of law in the country, there are doubts whether Hungary will be able to successfully fulfill tis role. A debate on whether it should be blocked from taking over the presidency on 1 July 2024 is in full swing. In this Policy Position, Thu Nguyen analyses the institutional role of Council presidencies, and argues that the Hungarian presidency will not be able to do much damage considering both the institutional corset and the time period in which it will operate.
An early Christmas Gift from Karlsruhe? The Bundesverfassungsgericht’s NextGenerationEU Ruling
(2022)
The 6 December ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the constitutional complaints against the EU’s recovery instrument NextGenerationEU seemed to come as an early Christmas gift from Karlsruhe. This time, the German court avoided the head-on collision with the EU. At the same time, the ruling raises crucial questions about the future of EU fiscal integration. While it is not as constraining as some might have feared, it does not give card blanche for a more permanent EU fiscal capacity. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen and Martijn van den Brink analyse the judgment and its possible implications going forward.
The battle over the rule of law in Hungary is coming to a head. Two separate but related rule of law procedures are currently on the Council’s agenda, with 7.5 billion Euros in cohesion funds and 5.8 billion Euros in grants from the EU recovery instrument on the line for Hungary. Both procedures are currently stuck in a political limbo as member states, faced once again with Hungarian vetoes, cannot agree on a common course of action. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen untangles the two files and argues that the EU is in a strong negotiating position: The Hungarian government can, in the current economic climate, very ill-afford to lose the funds.
On 6 October 2022, the inaugural meeting of the new ‘European Political Community’ (EPC) took place in Prague. Moving from a vague idea, suggested in May by French President Macron, into a real-time meeting with more than 40 European leaders in just a matter of months was a success exceeding early expectations for the EPC. But this very success means that the EPC has been inaugurated before it acquired a clear purpose, agenda or framework. This policy brief traces the evolution of the EPC and illustrates possible models for its future shape to ensure that the EPC will be able to achieve more than just bringing together leaders for yet another photo-op.
The Conference on the Future of Europe will not be the place where the future of the EU will be decided. For that, there are too many obstacles standing in its way: First, it comes at the wrong time. Secondly, it is too short and its governance structures are too heavy. And lastly, it lacks the necessary support at member state level to bring about concrete policy changes. But it also does not have to. The future of EU democracy will be decided in national and European parliamentary elections. Instead of overpromising on the Conference, EU institutions and national governments should ensure that their results are translated into concrete action at EU level.
Last week, the Conference on the Future of Europe was concluded. Now far-reaching reform proposals are on the table. However, there is a great risk of these proposals petering out. The Russian war of aggression shows how urgently the EU needs reforms. The German government should therefore seize the opportunity presented by the Conference. First, it should take its own European policy ambitions seriously and join forces with France to push for treaty changes. Second, it must find pragmatic steps in the short term to develop a constructive agenda from the Conference proposals, even below the threshold of treaty change.
The EU’s rule of law toolbox is growing, not just in theory but also in practice. At the same time, the Russian war in Ukraine has made abundantly clear the importance of protecting rule of law and democracy also at home. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen maps the tools the EU has at its disposal to impose financial measures against member states that breach the rule of law. By illustrating the potential scale and scope of those instruments, she shows that the window of opportunity to leverage EU money against member states to enforce compliance with rule of law has never been bigger.
Between the deleterious effect of the Covid pandemic on public finances and the financial investments required to stem the growing climate emergency, the debate on reforming the EU fiscal framework has become ever more urgent. At the same time, there is no consensus on what reforms are needed even among those calling for them. A variety of proposals exists but it often remains unclear what legal changes they imply. This question is key for their implementation, however. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen provides an overview of the legal bases of the current EU fiscal framework to help inform the reform debate.