Estimating Constituency Preferences from Sparse Survey Data Using Auxiliary Geographic Information

  • Measures of constituency preferences are of vital importance for the study of political representation and other research areas. Yet, such measures are often difficult to obtain. Previous survey-based estimates frequently lack precision and coverage due to small samples, rely on questionable assumptions or require detailed auxiliary information about the constituencies' population characteristics. We propose an alternative Bayesian hierarchical approach that exploits minimal geographic information readily available from digitalized constituency maps. If at hand, social background data are easily integrated. To validate the method, we use national polls and district-level results from the 2009 German Bundestag election, an empirical case for which detailed structural information is missing.

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Metadaten
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Author(s):Peter Selb, Simon MunzertORCiD
Parent Title (English):Political Analysis
Publication year:2011
Publishing Institution:Hertie School
First Page:455
Last Page:470
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpr034
Release Date:2020/01/27
Volume:19
Issue:4
Licence of document (German):Metadaten / metadata
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