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Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys

  • Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.

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Metadaten
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Author(s):Peter Selb, Simon MunzertORCiD
Parent Title (English):Electoral Studies
Publication year:2013
Publishing Institution:Hertie School
First Page:186
Last Page:196
Related URL:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001369
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004
Release Date:2020/01/27
Volume:32
Issue:1
Licence of document (German):Metadaten / metadata
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