TY - RPRT A1 - Solga, Heike A1 - Brzinsky-Fay, Christian A1 - Graf, Lukas A1 - Gresch, Cornelia A1 - Protsch, Paula T1 - Vergleiche innerhalb von Gruppen und institutionelle Gelingensbedingungen. Vielversprechende Perspektiven für die Ungleichheitsforschung T2 - WZB Discussion Paper, No. SP I 2013-501 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/71288/1/737571047.pdf ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graf, Lukas ED - Solga, Heike ED - Brzinsky-Fay, Christian ED - Graf, Lukas ED - Gresch, Cornelia ED - Protsch, Paula T1 - Duale Studiengänge als "unerwartete" Form der institutionellen Durchlässigkeit zwischen Berufs- und Hochschulbildung in Deutschland T2 - Vergleiche innerhalb von Gruppen und institutionelle Gelingensbedingungen. Vielversprechende Perspektiven für die Ungleichheitsforschung T2 - WZB Discussion Paper, SP I 2013–501, Februar 2013 Y1 - 2013 UR - https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2013/i13-501.pdf SP - 40 EP - 41 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Bauer, Paul T1 - Political Depolarization in German Public Opinion, 1980–2010 JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - Little is known about political polarization in German public opinion. This article offers an issue-based perspective and explores trends of opinion polarization in Germany. Public opinion polarization is conceptualized and measured as alignment of attitudes. Data from the German General Social Survey (1980 to 2010) comprise attitudes towards manifold issues, which are classified into several dimensions. This study estimates multilevel models that reveal general and issue- as well as dimension-specific levels and trends in attitude alignment for both the whole German population and sub-groups. It finds that public opinion polarization has decreased over the last three decades in Germany. In particular, highly educated and more politically interested people have become less polarized over time. However, polarization seems to have increased in attitudes regarding gender issues. These findings provide interesting contrasts to existing research on the American public. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.7 VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 67 EP - 89 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Selb, Peter A1 - Herrmann, Michael A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Schübel, Thomas A1 - Shikano, Susumu T1 - Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls JF - International Journal of Forecasting N2 - We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters’ candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election returns, and redistributing the votes for eliminated competitors according to their supporters’ lower-order preferences among the viable alternatives in round two. We argue that the approach is likely to outperform standard pre-election surveys, due to its better coverage and reduced measurement error, and the possibility of correcting for sample selection. We set out the practical details of the method and demonstrate its usefulness by employing a recent German mayoral election as an empirical case. Thirteen candidates were competing in the first round, while there were six candidates in the decisive second round. The runoff result was forecast two weeks in advance with an average absolute error of less than one percentage point. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001 VL - 29 IS - 4 SP - 541 EP - 547 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Selb, Peter A1 - Munzert, Simon T1 - Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys JF - Electoral Studies N2 - Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research. Y1 - 2013 UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379412001369 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004 VL - 32 IS - 1 SP - 186 EP - 196 ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Hustedt, Thurid T1 - Ministerialverwaltung im Wandel BT - Struktur und Rolle der Leitungsbereiche im deutsch-dänischen Vergleich N2 - Anknüpfend an neuere Forschungsergebnisse zum Verhältnis von Politik und Ministerialverwaltung wird untersucht, wie und warum sich Struktur und Rolle der Leitungsbereiche deutscher und dänischer Ministerien seit 1980 gewandelt haben. Die Studie zeigt, dass die Ministerialverwaltungen beider Länder unter einem diffusen Anpassungsdruck stehen, der selektiv auf einen Bedeutungszuwachs der Leitungsbereiche hinwirkt, aber unterschiedlich verarbeitet wird. Der länderspezifische Bedeutungszuwachs der Leitungsbereiche wird anhand unterschiedlich wirkender institutioneller Filter erklärt, die auf die jeweilige Institutionalisierung des Verhältnisses von Politik und Verwaltung zurückzuführen sind. Die Untersuchung bietet einen fundierten empirischen Einblick in den Wandel von Organisation und Rollenwahrnehmung der Leitungsbereiche und stößt damit in eine Lücke der vergleichenden Verwaltungsforschung. Y1 - 2013 SN - 9783848707881 (print), 9783845250182 (online) U6 - https://doi.org/10.5771/9783845250182 PB - Nomos ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hustedt, Thurid A1 - Salomonsen, Heidi Houlberg T1 - Politikberatung durch die Ministerialverwaltung: Funktionale Differenzierung oder Integration unterschiedlicher Wissensformen JF - der moderne staat (dms) Y1 - 2013 SN - 9783847401179 VL - Sonderheft 1/2013 SP - 203 EP - 221 ER -