TY - RPRT A1 - Dengler, Thomas A1 - Gehrke, Britta A1 - Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold T1 - Short-time work and precautionary savings T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - During the Covid-19 crisis, most OECD countries used short-time work (subsidized reductions in working hours) to preserve employment. This paper documents that short-time work affects the behavior of firms (supply) and households (demand). First, using household survey data from Germany, we show that the consumption risk of short-time work is lower than that of unemployment. Second, we construct a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous workers and firms, incomplete asset markets, and labor market frictions. Short-time work weakens workers' precautionary savings motive and lowers labor costs. This reduces the level and volatility of both the separation and unemployment rate at the cost of tying workers to less productive firms. Quantitatively, the positive employment effects dominate the productivity losses. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 66 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58282 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5828 ET - No. 66 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kaas, Leo A1 - Kocharkov, Georgi A1 - Syrichas, Nicolas T1 - Understanding Spatial House Price Dynamics in a Housing Boom T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We examine the evolution of spatial house price dispersion during Germany’s recent housing boom. Using a dataset of sales listings, we find that house price dispersion has significantly increased, which is driven entirely by rising price variation across postal codes. We show that both price divergence across labor market regions and widening spatial price variation within these regions are important factors for this trend. We propose and calibrate a directed search model of the housing market to understand the driving forces of rising spatial price dispersion, highlighting the role of housing supply, housing demand and frictions in the matching process between buyers and sellers. While shifts in housing supply, housing demand and search frictions all matter for overall price increases and for regional price differences, we find that variation in housing demand is the primary factor contributing to the widening spatial dispersion. Our model-based demand and supply components correlate strongly with regional fundamentals, suggesting that they capture economically meaningful variation in local housing markets. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 65 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58228 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5822 ET - No. 65 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Buggle, Johannes A1 - Deter, Max A1 - Lange, Martin T1 - Networks of Dissent: Social Leaders and Protest in an Autocracy T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1,600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 64 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58214 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5821 ET - No. 64 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Waights, Sevrin T1 - Parental Leave Benefits and Gender Inequality: Evidence from a Benefits Cap for High-Earning Mothers T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - I use the universe of tax returns in Germany and a regression kink design to estimate the impacts of mothers' parental leave benefit amounts on couple earnings inequality. I make use of a benefits cap to estimate the causal impacts for high-earning women; a group for which earnings inequality is particularly large. A lower mothers' benefit amount results in a reduced gender gap in earnings that persists beyond the benefit period for at least nine years after the birth. The longer-term impacts are driven by couples where the mother earned more than her partner pre-birth. Simulations suggest that a 10% reduction in the benefit amount could reduce long-run child penalties in sample couples from 63 to 43%. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 67 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58600 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5860 ET - No. 67 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Funke, Franziska A1 - Konc, Théo A1 - Mattauch, Linus A1 - Pahle, Michael A1 - Schwarz, Antonia A1 - Sommer, Stephan T1 - Prices vs. Quantities from a Citizen’s Perspective T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We propose a theory of public appraisal and employ it to explain divergent public opinion on similar economic policy instruments. In a survey-based policy design experiment with 13,665 respondents from seven European countries, we study how policy perceptions and support rates differ across carbon pricing designed as “carbon taxation” and “emissions trading”. While there is considerable cross-country variation in the appraisal of both instruments, the emissions trading design reduces opposition in all countries except Germany. We find that the treatment effects of instrument design on policy perceptions are substantial: carbon taxes are consistently more often perceived as increasing the state budget, harming the economy, and increasing costs of living and production. Using causal mediation analysis, we ascertain that lower opposition to emissions trading is partly due to its perception as less costly. Overall, our results suggest that the public consistently perceives taxes as a “tougher” measure, and that emissions trading appeals more to European constituencies not already supportive of climate policy. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 76 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59502 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5950 ET - No. 76 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Liu, Shuige A1 - Ziegler, Gabriel T1 - Reasoning about Bounded Reasoning T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Interactive decision-making relies on strategic reasoning. Two prominent frameworks capture this idea. One follows a structural perspective, exemplified by level-k and Cognitive Hierarchy models, which represent reasoning as an algorithmic process. The other adopts an epistemic perspective, formalizing reasoning through beliefs and higher-order beliefs. We connect these approaches by "Lifting" static complete-information games into incomplete-information settings where payoff types reflect players' levels. Within this unified framework, reasoning is represented through mathematically explicit and transparent belief restrictions. We analyze three instances: downward rationalizability, a robust benchmark concept; and two refinements, L-rationalizability and CH-rationalizability, which provide epistemic foundations---albeit with a nuance---for the classic level-k and Cognitive Hierarchy models, respectively. Our results clarify how reasoning depth relates to behavioral predictions, distinguish cognitive limits from belief restrictions, and connect bounded reasoning to robustness principles from mechanism design. The framework thus offers a transparent and tractable bridge between structural and epistemic approaches to reasoning in games. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 79 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59669 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5966 ET - No. 79 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Benndorf, Volker A1 - Kübler, Dorothea A1 - Normann, Hans-Theo T1 - Information Unraveling and Limited Depth of Reasoning T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Information unraveling is an elegant theoretical argument suggesting that private information is voluntarily and fully revealed in many circumstances. However, the experimental literature has documented many cases of incomplete unraveling and has suggested limited depth of reasoning on the part of senders as a behavioral explanation. To test this explanation, we modify the design of existing unraveling games along two dimensions. In contrast to the baseline setting with simultaneous moves, we introduce a variant where decision-making is essentially sequential. Second, we vary the cost of disclosure, resulting in a 2x2 treatment design. Both sequential decision-making and low disclosure costs are suitable for reducing the demands on subjects' level-k reasoning. The data confirm that sequential decision-making and low disclosure costs lead to more disclosure, and there is virtually full disclosure in the treatment that combines both. A calibrated level-k model makes quantitative predictions, including precise treatment level and player-specific revelation rates, and these predictions organize the data well. The timing of decisions provides further insights into the treatment-specific unraveling process. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 78 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59654 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5965 ET - No. 78 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anger, Silke A1 - Christoph, Bernhard A1 - Galkiewicz, Agata A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Sandner, Malte A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - Online Tutoring, School Performance, and School-to-Work Transitions: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Tutoring programs for low-performing students, delivered in-person or online, effectively enhance school performance, yet their medium- and longer-term impacts on labor market outcomes remain less understood. To address this gap, we conduct a randomized controlled trial with 839 secondary school students in Germany to examine the effects of an online tutoring program for low-performing students on academic performance and school-to-work transitions. The online tutoring program had a non significant intention to-treat effect of 0.06 standard deviations on math grades six months after program start. However, among students who had not received other tutoring services prior to the intervention, the program significantly improved math grades by 0.14 standard deviations. Moreover, students in non-academic school tracks experienced smoother school-to-work transitions, with vocational training take-up 18 months later being 5 percentage points higher—an effect that was even larger (12 percentage points) among those without prior tutoring. Overall, the results indicate that tutoring can generate lasting benefits for low-performing students that extend beyond school performance. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 84 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-60202 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-6020 ET - No. 84 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schmandt, Marco A1 - Tielkes, Constantin A1 - Weinhardt, Felix T1 - Random Placement but Real Bias T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Many studies exploit the random placement of individuals into groups such as schools or regions to estimate the effects of group-level variables on these individuals. Assuming a simple data generating process, we show that the typical estimate contains three components: the causal effect of interest, “multiple-treatment bias” (MTB), and “mobility bias” (MB). The extent of these biases depends on the interrelations of group-level variables and onward mobility. We develop a checklist that can be used to assess the relevance of the biases based on observable quantities. We apply this framework to novel administrative data on randomly placed refugees in Germany and confirm empirically that MTB and MB cannot be ignored. The biases can even switch the signs of estimates of popular group-level variables, despite random placement. We discuss implications for the literature and alternative “ideal experiments". T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 85 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-60218 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-6021 ET - No. 85 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Arlinghaus, Johanna A1 - Konc, Théo A1 - Mattauch, Linus A1 - Sommer, Stephan T1 - The effect of framing on policy support: Experimental evidence from urban transport policies T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Do citizens support policy instruments because they appreciate their effects or because they are convinced by their objectives? We administered a large-scale representative survey with randomised video treatments to test how different policy frames - time savings, health and environment - affect citizens' attitudes towards urban tolls in two large European metropolitan areas, Berlin-Brandenburg and Paris-Ile de France. Presenting urban tolls as a solution to air pollution increases support by up to 11.4 percentage points, presenting them as a climate change or congestion relief measure increases support by 7.1 and 6.5 percentage points, respectively. We demonstrate via a causal mediation analysis that the observed changes in policy support are mainly framing effects; changes in beliefs about policy effects play a secondary role. Thus, we uncover a new mechanism shaping public opinion on economic policies: the stated objectives of an identical policy design can shape citizens' views in distinct ways. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 77 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59648 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5964 ET - No. 77 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. A1 - Koster, Hans R.A. A1 - Vu, Tu Giang T1 - Mind the lag: Using assessed and list prices as proxies for housing market values T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Property transaction prices are widely regarded as the best measure of property value, but are sometimes unavailable. Using data from the Netherlands and New York, we analyze whether list prices and assessed values are reliable substitutes. In the cross-section, both proxies strongly predict sales prices, and estimated hedonic implicit prices resemble those based on sales prices. Over time, there is a sluggish adjustment in both proxies, but much more so in assessed values—particularly when they are based on rental incomes. While assessed values are well-suited for cross-sectional hedonic modelling or the quantification of static quantitative spatial models, list prices are better suited for the estimation of hedonic implicit prices from variation over time, although some attenuation bias should be expected. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 83 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-60077 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-6007 ET - No. 83 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Prömel, Christopher A1 - Steinhardt, Max Friedrich T1 - The Bitter Taste of Unemployment – Evidence from Plant Closures and Layoffs T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This study examines the effects of unemployment on bitterness, which describes a feeling of not having achieved what one deserves compared to others. Pooled OLS and fixed effects estimates reveal a positive association between unemployment and bitterness. To identify the causal effect of unemployment on bitterness, we exploit variation from plant closures and layoffs in Germany, combining entropy balancing with difference-in-differences estimation. We find that unemployment leads to a substantial and significant increase in bitterness of nearly half a point on the 1-7 point Likert scale. We demonstrate the robustness of our findings and that both the experience of job loss and the state of being unemployed contribute separately to a significant increase in bitterness, with longer unemployment duration resulting in higher levels of bitterness. Lastly, we evaluate the persistence of our effects, finding significant long-term effects for those who remain unemployed for over one year. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 68 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58938 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5893 ET - No. 68 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Prummer, Anja A1 - Nava, Francesco T1 - Divisive By Design: Shaping Values in Optimal Mechanisms T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We study a principal who allocates a good to agents with private, independently distributed values through an optimal mechanism. The principal can strategically shape these value distributions by modifying the good’s features, which affect agents’ valuations. Our analysis reveals that optimal designs are frequently divisive—creating goods that appeal strongly to specific agents or agent types while being less valued by others. These divisive designs reduce information rents and increase total surplus, at the expense of competition. Even when total surplus is constrained, some divisiveness in designs remains optimal. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 69 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-58947 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5894 ET - No. 69 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Sun, Chen A1 - Weinhardt, Felix A1 - Weizsäcker, Georg T1 - Measuring Long-Run Expectations that Correlate with Investment Decisions T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual growth rates over the next 10 years, or they predict the total, cumulative growth that occurs over the 10-year period. Results show that total 10-year forecasts are more pessimistic than average annual forecasts, but they better predict experimental portfolio choices and real-world stock market participation. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 70 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59042 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5904 ET - No. 70 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schmidt, Vanessa A1 - Seidl, Hannah T1 - Aggregate Lending Standards and Inequality T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We study the effects of movements in aggregate lending standards on macroeconomic aggregates and inequality. We show in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous households and housing that a looser loan-to-value (LTV) ratio stimulates housing demand, nondurable consumption, and output. Our model implies that the LTV shock transmits to macroeconomic aggregates through higher household liquidity and a general-equilibrium increase in house prices and labor income. We also show that a looser LTV ratio redistributes housing wealth from the top 10% of the housing wealth distribution to the bottom 50%, indicating an overall decrease in inequality. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 71 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59158 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5915 ET - No. 71 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bruche, Max A1 - Meisenzahl, Ralf R. A1 - Xu, David X. T1 - What Do Lead Banks Learn from Leveraged Loan Investors? T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We examine the private information held by nonbank lenders in leveraged loan syndications. In these transactions, lead banks gather information about participant demand through bookbuilding and use it to adjust loan spreads. An upward spread adjustment during bookbuilding strongly predicts the borrower’s future default and prompts banks to raise their internal risk estimates. This suggests that nonbank syndicate participants’ demand reveals information about borrower credit quality unknown to the lead bank before bookbuilding. Our results challenge the conventional view of information asymmetries between banks and nonbank lenders, instead highlighting an element of information complementarity in modern corporate lending. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 72 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59211 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5921 ET - No. 72 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bachmeier, Marc A1 - Marcus, Jan T1 - The effect of tuition fees on university graduation T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper examines the impact of tuition fees on graduation rates among high-school leavers. We analyse the introduction of fees in several German states in 2006-07 (around EUR 1,000 annually), using administrative microdata on all university graduates and a difference-in-differences approach. The share of high-school leavers graduating fell by 1.8 percentage points, which is less than the 3.2-percentage point drop in enrolment, indicating many deterred students would not have graduated without fees. This underscores the importance of studying not only enrolment but also graduation rates, particularly in systems with high dropout rates and ``ghost students''–students enrolling primarily for non-educational benefits. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 61 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-57524 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5752 ET - No. 61 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Han, Yi A1 - Kübler, Dorothea A1 - Liu, Yiming A1 - Zheng, Xinye A1 - Zong, Yibo T1 - The Gender Gap in Gender-Blind University Admissions T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We document a substantial gender gap in China’s gender-blind university admissions system: equally qualified female students are less likely to apply and be admitted to elite universities than male students. Leveraging linked administrative and survey data on students’ application choices, preferences, and beliefs, we show that this gap is largely explained by women’s stronger tendency to apply to nearby and education-focused universities. Although men and women report similar personal preferences, female students perceive stronger parental pressure to remain close to home and choose education-focused universities, and are more likely to align their choices with these parental preferences than men. Moreover, the gap is concentrated among students with strong gender stereotype beliefs and disappears among those with weak stereotype beliefs. Our findings demonstrate that gender-blind institutional design alone is insufficient to ensure equal access when men and women face different societal expectations. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 62 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-57561 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5756 ET - No. 62 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bald, Fabian A1 - Henkel, Marcel T1 - Spatial Policies and Heterogeneous Employment Responses T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper proposes that spatial policies improve economic outcomes by reducing barriers to supplying labour, with heterogeneous effects across demographic groups. Using quasi-experimental variation in Germany’s fiscal transfer system, we estimate higher employment elasticities for female workers, with the strongest impact in places where public childcare supply is smaller. We propose a quantitative spatial model incorporating location decisions and group-specific frictions to labour force participation. We establish that optimal spatial policy would not unambiguously direct resources to low-wage areas but additionally target regions with high labour supply elasticities, yielding substantial welfare and labour force gains in the aggregate. This paper argues that accounting for differential employment responses significantly alters optimal place-based policy design, highlighting a novel channel for addressing efficiency and equity concerns in ageing economies. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 63 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-57647 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5764 ET - No. 63 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Coleman, Winnie A1 - Nautz, Dieter T1 - Asymmetric Inflation Target Credibility T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Paper N2 - This paper investigates the determinants of inflation target credibility (ITC) using a unique survey we designed to measure the credibility of the ECB’s inflation target. Containing over 200,000 responses from German consumers collected between January 2019 and November 2024, our dataset enables us to estimate the effect of both positive and negative deviations of inflation from the 2% target on ITC. In contrast to the symmetry of the ECB’s inflation target, we find that ITC is asymmetric, i.e. consumers respond significantly and plausibly signed to target deviations only when inflation is above target. When inflation is below target, however, the credibility of the inflation target cannot be improved by raising the inflation rate to close the gap. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 60 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-57252 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5725 ET - No. 60 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Groiss, Martin A1 - Syrichas, Nicolas T1 - Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - How do different monetary policy tools influence residential housing markets, and how do these effects vary between owner-occupied and rental segments? To answer this question, we assemble a new monthly regional dataset from 35 million real estate listings over the period 2007-2023 and exploit high-frequency monetary policy surprises for identification. Focusing on Germany—where half of households rent—we find that expansionary monetary policy significantly boosts property prices, with forward guidance and quantitative easing having more pronounced and persistent effects than conventional rate cuts. Rents also rise, albeit more modestly and less persistently. Housing demand—measured by daily contacts per listing—rises sharply, while the number of for-sale properties falls, tightening the owner-occupied market more than the rental market. Linking these findings to survey microdata, we show that renters become homeowners at higher rates, homeowners reduce home-to-home moves, and renters make more rent-to-rent transitions. The results suggest that accommodative monetary policy can widen price-to-rent ratios, fueling housing affordability pressures and potentially exacerbating the wealth gap between owners and renters. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 58 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-56848 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5684 ET - No. 58 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bergeaud, Antonin A1 - Deter, Max A1 - Greve, Maria A1 - Wyrwich, Michael T1 - Migration and Innovation: The Impact of East German Inventors on West Germany’s Technological Development T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate the causal relationship between inventor migration and regional innovation in the context of the large-scale migration shock from East to West Germany between World War II and the construction of the Berlin Wall in 1961. Leveraging a newly constructed, century-spanning dataset on Germanpatents and inventors, along with an innovative identification strategy based on surname proximity, we trace the trajectories of East German inventors and quantify their impact on innovation in West Germany. Our findings demonstrate a significant and persistent boost to patenting activities in regions with higher inflows of East German inventors, predominantly driven by advancements in chemistry and physics. We further validate the robustness of our identification strategy against alternative plausible mechanisms. We show in particular that the effect is stronger than the one caused by the migration of other high skilled workers and scientists. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 59 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-56857 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5685 ET - No. 59 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Gars, Jared A1 - Prada, Laura A1 - Tripodi, Egon A1 - Borda, Santiago T1 - Personalized Reminders: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Voluntary Retirement Savings in Colombia T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - A large share of the global workforce lacks access to employer-sponsored retirement plans. In Colombia, where labor informality is high, the government introduced the Beneficios Economicos Periodicos (BEPS) program to promote voluntary retirement savings. However, many enrollees fail to contribute regularly. We conduct a randomized controlled trial with 2,819 BEPS users, assigning them to different planning and monthly reminder treatments, where reminders are tailored in their timing. We find that personalized reminders significantly increase both the frequency and amount of savings, with individuals who recognize their forgetfulness more likely to demand reminders. Our findings highlight the role of reminders tailored to individuals’ preferred timing in sustaining engagement in voluntary savings programs. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 73 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59257 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5925 ET - No. 73 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Dasenbrock, Erik A1 - Gehrke, Britta T1 - Unemployment Benefits and Interest Rates: The Role of Age T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper studies how unemployment benefits affect aggregate outcomes through general equilibrium effects. First, we document that lower unemployment benefits tend to reduce the real interest rate in a structural vector autoregression with narrative sign restrictions. Young workers experience greater employment gains than older workers. An overlapping generations model with labor market frictions rationalizes these findings. Reduced benefits boost employment among younger working-age populations, raising their incomes and enabling them to reduce borrowing, which in turn lowers real interest rates. This endogenous interest rate response amplifies the expansionary effects of the benefit reduction. The interest rate channel proves quantitatively relevant, suggesting important general equilibrium considerations for unemployment benefit design. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 74 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59407 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5940 ET - No. 74 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Harter, Anina T1 - Legislative institutions and distributive politics: Evidence from Germany’s federal budget committee T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper studies how legislative institutions shape distributive policy outcomes. Specifically, I analyze the effect of budget committee membership in the German Bundestag using a novel dataset of 4,629 geocoded federal grants (1999–2023). Employing a within-legislator difference-in-differences design, I estimate that gaining a seat on the budget committee doubles the average per capita grant amount received by a legislator’s electoral district. This committee benefit corresponds to approximately 2.6 million EUR over a typical budget committee career. Distributive benefits are driven by internal committee hierarchy rather than mandate type or affiliation with governing parties. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 75 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59426 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5942 ET - No. 75 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kersting, Felix T1 - Bismarck's Welfare State and the Socialists T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - This paper examines the political consequences of introducing the welfare state targeted at blue-collar workers in 19th-century Germany. I conceptualize Bismarck’s reform as an accommodation strategy to combat the socialist party as an emerging challenger party. The result of a difference-in-differences design shows that the socialist party benefited in elections due to the reform. The mechanism analysis points to the socialists’ issue ownership by adopting a stronger reformist stance. The results are not driven by other political and economic channels related to the reform. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 81 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59892 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5989 ET - No. 81 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Geyer, Johannes A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Teschner, Mia T1 - The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Long-Term Care: Evidence on Prices T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - The price of institutional long-term care is a key determinant of the demand for both formal and informal long-term care. In this paper, we examine how the regional unemployment rate as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions influences these prices. Our analysis draws on administrative data that provide detailed information on all nursing homes and ambulatory care services, as well as all recipients of long-term care benefits in Germany. For identification, we exploit variation in macroeconomic conditions - measured by district-level unemployment rates over time - using a panel data approach with facility and time fixed effects. Our empirical findings indicate that higher unemployment rates lead to increased prices for permanent long-term care, including accommodation and meal costs in nursing homes. We provide evidence for the mechanisms underlying these price effects. While we find no significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on employment, working hours, or quality of care in nursing homes, our results suggest that higher unemployment rates raise nursing home prices through changes in the composition of patients. Specifically, economic downturns trigger a shift from recipients with lower levels of impairment to those requiring more labor-intensive care. Additionally, we observe a substitution effect, whereby low-impairment patients increasingly opt for ambulatory and informal home care instead of institutional care. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 80 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59887 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5988 ET - No. 80 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schmidt, Vanessa B. T1 - Inequality, Home Production, and Monetary Policy T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - I study the role of home production in determining the labor income channel through which monetary policy affects consumption inequality. To this end, I develop a Two-Agent New Keynesian model with home production. In the context of my model, hand-to-mouth households experience a sharper decline in labor income compared to richer households in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock. However, they increase home production to a greater extent than richer households do. The resulting labor income channel is therefore one third the size when accounting for home production. In line with my theoretical results, I show empirically that individuals living hand-to-mouth respond to contractionary monetary policy shocks by increasing home production by more than richer people do. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 82 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59937 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5993 ET - No. 82 ER -