TY - JOUR A1 - Neunhoeffer, Marcel A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. T1 - Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen JF - Politische Vierteljahresschrift N2 - Almost half of the total seats in the German Bundestag are awarded through first-past-the post elections at the electoral-district level. However, many election forecasting models do not consider this. In this paper we present an approach to predicting the candidate-vote shares at the district level for the German Federal Elections. To that end, we combine the national-level election prediction model from zweitstimme.org with two district-level prediction models, a linear regression and an artificial neural network, that both use the same candidate and district characteristics for their predictions. All data in our approach are publicly available prior to the respective election; thus, our model yields real forecasts. The model is therefore able to provide valuable information to running candidates and the interested public in future elections. Moreover, our prediction results are also relevant for substantive research: with the aid of the resulting odds of winning, better measures can be created to characterize the competitiveness of an electoral district and the expected closeness of electoral-district elections, which can influence political behaviour. Furthermore, the prediction allows empirical statements to be made about the expected size of the Bundestag as well as the composition of its personnel. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-019-00216-3 VL - 61 SP - 111 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lindemann, Korinna A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. T1 - The effect of televised candidate debates on the support for political parties JF - Electoral Studies N2 - During campaigns for legislative elections, a large portion of the general public follows televised debates between the front-running candidates. How can the candidates use the public interest in the debates to increase the support for their party? In this article, we argue that especially challenger candidates can improve the public perception of their valence qualities, such as personal integrity, leadership, and competence, and can - as a result - raise the support of their party. We expect that the perceived policy stances of the candidates matter less. Building on televised debate experiments during the German Federal Elections of 2009 and 2013, we analyse the effect of the debates on party vote and in how far this relationship is mediated by changes in valence and policy evaluations of the candidates. Results show that changes of candidate valence, but not changes in policy perceptions, of the social-democratic front-running candidates mediate the vote intention for the party. Respondents who perceived the candidates more competent, empathetic and have integrity as a result of the debate are more likely to vote for the candidate's party. Our analysis further reveals, however, that this valence effect is not long-lasting and does not carry-over to vote intention briefly before the election. KW - Televised debates KW - Candidate valence KW - Voting decisions KW - Legislative election campaigns Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2020.102243 SN - 0261-3794 VL - 69 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Selb, Peter A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Lowe, Will T1 - Tracking and Promoting Usage of a COVID-19 Contact Tracing App. JF - Nature Human Behavior N2 - Digital contact tracing apps have been introduced globally as an instrument to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, privacy by design impedes both the evaluation of these tools and the deployment of evidence-based interventions to stimulate uptake. We combine an online panel survey with mobile tracking data to measure the actual usage of Germany’s official contact tracing app and reveal higher uptake rates among respondents with an increased risk of severe illness, but lower rates among those with a heightened risk of exposure to COVID-19. Using a randomized intervention, we show that informative and motivational video messages have very limited effect on uptake. However, findings from a second intervention suggest that even small monetary incentives can strongly increase uptake and help make digital contact tracing a more effective tool. Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?2397-3374 IS - 5 SP - 247 EP - 255 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Ramirez-Ruiz, Sebastian A1 - Çalı, Başak A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Lowe, Will T1 - Prioritization preferences for COVID-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries JF - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications N2 - Vaccination against COVID-19 is making progress globally, but vaccine doses remain a rare commodity in many parts of the world. New virus variants require vaccines to be updated, hampering the availability of effective vaccines. Policymakers have defined criteria to regulate who gets priority access to the vaccination, such as age, health complications, or those who hold system-relevant jobs. But how does the public think about vaccine allocation? To explore those preferences, we surveyed respondents in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States from September to December of 2020 using ranking and forced-choice tasks. We find that public preferences are consistent with expert guidelines prioritizing health-care workers and people with medical preconditions. However, the public also considers those signing up early for vaccination and citizens of the country to be more deserving than later-comers and non-citizens. These results hold across measures, countries, and socio-demographic subgroups. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01392-1 VL - 9 IS - 439 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Lowe, Will A1 - Çalı, Başak A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Helbling, Marc A1 - Maxwell, Rahsaan A1 - Traunmüller, Richard T1 - Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the COVID-19 pandemic JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - Recent scholarship on affective polarization documents partisan animosity in people's everyday lives. But does partisan dislike go so far as to deny fundamental rights? We study this question through a moral dilemma that gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic: triage decisions on the allocation of intensive medical care. Using a conjoint experiment in five countries we analyze the influence of patients’ partisanship next to commonly discussed factors determining access to intensive medical care. We find that while participants’ choices are consistent with a utilitarian heuristic, revealed partisanship influences decisions across most countries. Supporters of left or right political camps are more likely to withhold support from partisan opponents. Our findings offer comparative evidence on affective polarization in non-political contexts. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.13 SP - 1 EP - 8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt A1 - Murr, Andreas E. T1 - Voters’ Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls JF - Public Opinion Quarterly N2 - How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy of voters’ expectations. The analysis further shows that voters leverage the information to update their beliefs. The results have relevant implications for debates about belief formation in low-information environments. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae015 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lindemann, Korinna A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. T1 - The Effect of Televised Candidate Debates on the Support for Political Parties N2 - During campaigns for legislative elections, a large portion of the general public follows televised debates between the front-running candidates. How can the candidates use the public interest in the debates to increase the support for their party? In this article, we argue that especially challenger candidates can improve the public perception of their valence qualities, such as personal integrity, leadership, and competence, and can - as a result - improve the support of their parties. We expect the perceived policy stances of the candidates to matter less, as parties often already have well-defined policy profiles that matter to voters. Building on televised debate experiments during the German Federal Elections of 2009 and 2013, we analyse the effect of the debates on party vote and in how far this relationship is mediated by changes in valence and policy evaluations of the candidates. Results show that changes of candidate valence, but not changes in policy perceptions, of the social-democratic front-running candidates mediate the vote intention for the party. Respondents who perceived the candidates more competent, empathetic and have integrity as a result of the debate are more likely to vote for their party. Our analysis further reveals, however, that this valence effect does not carry-over to vote intention briefly before the election. Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-54385 ER -