TY - JOUR A1 - Dusseault, David A1 - Hansen, Martin Ejnar A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - The significance of economy in the Russian bi-lateral treaty process JF - Communist and Post-Communist Studies N2 - In his recent article Söderlund (2003) tests structural factors that influence the order in which the Russian regions gained a bi-lateral agreement with the federal centre emphasizing the importance of ethnicity, religion and economy. We replicate his results, and provide an extension where we argue instead that the only significant determinants of the bi-lateral process have been economic issues. Our results are substantiated by an improved methodology that addresses several debatable choices made by the author in the original article. Y1 - 2005 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-27890 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-067X(03)00041-2 N1 - This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in "Communist and Post-Communist Studies". For the final authenticated version follow the DOI above. IS - 38 (1) SP - 121 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Marsh, Michael ED - Thomassen, Jacques T1 - Policy Performance and Support for European Integration JF - The Legitimacy of the European Union After Enlargement N2 - Following Easton’s conceptual framework discussed in the introductory chapter, a hierarchical relationship exists between three objects of support: output support, support for institutions, and support for the community. The latter two objects of support are examined in turn in two subsequent chapters on trust in European political institutions and the relationship between citizenship and identity in the European Community. This chapter focuses on the first object of support – support derived from the accrued material benefits of EU membership. Y1 - 2009 SN - 9780199548996 SP - 164 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Benoit, Kenneth A1 - Laver, Michael T1 - Treating Words as Data with Error: Estimating Uncertainty in Text Statements of Policy Positions JF - American Journal of Political Science N2 - Political text offers extraordinary potential as a source of information about the policy positions of political actors. Despite recent advances in computational text analysis, human interpretative coding of text remains an important source of text-based data, ultimately required to validate more automatic techniques. The profession’s main source of cross-national, time-series data on party policy positions comes from the human interpretative coding of party manifestos by the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP). Despite widespread use of these data, the uncertainty associated with each point estimate has never been available, undermining the value of the dataset as a scientific resource. We propose a remedy. First, we characterize processes by which CMP data are generated. These include inherently stochastic processes of text authorship, as well as of the parsing and coding of observed text by humans. Second, we simulate these error-generating processes by bootstrapping analyses of coded quasi-sentences. This allows us to estimate precise levels of nonsystematic error for every category and scale reported by the CMP for its entire set of 3,000-plus manifestos. Using our estimates of these errors, we show how to correct biased inferences, in recent prominently published work, derived from statistical analyses of error-contaminated CMP data. Y1 - 2009 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00383.x SN - 0092-5853 VL - 53 IS - 2 SP - 495 EP - 513 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marsh, Michael A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - European Parliament elections and EU governance JF - Living Reviews in European Governance N2 - The decision to establish direct elections to the European Parliament was intended by many to establish a direct link between the individual citizen and decision making at the European level. Elections were meant to help to establish a common identity among the peoples of Europe, to legitimise policy through the normal electoral processes and provide a public space within which Europeans could exert a more direct control over their collective future. Critics disagreed, arguing that direct elections to the European Parliament would further undermine the sovereignty of member states, and may not deliver on the promise that so many were making on behalf of that process. In particular, some wondered whether elections alone could mobilise European publics to take a much greater interest in European matters, with the possibility of European elections being contested simply on national matters. Evaluating these divergent views, the subject of this article is to review the literature on direct elections to the European Parliament in the context of the role these elections play in governance of the European Union. The seminal work by Reif and Schmitt serves as the starting point of our review. These authors were the first to discuss elections to the European Parliament as second-order national elections. Results of second-order elections are influenced not only by second-order factors, but also by the situation in the first-order arena at the time of the second-order election. In the 30 years and six more sets of European Parliament elections since the publication of their work, the concept has become the dominant one in any academic discussion of European elections. In this article we review that work in order to assess the continuing value of the second-order national election concept today, and to consider some of the more fruitful areas for research which might build on the advance made by Reif and Schmitt. While the concept has proven useful in studies of a range of elections beyond just those for the European Parliament, including those for regional and local assemblies as well as referendums, this review will concentrate solely on EP elections. Concluding that Reif and Schmitt’s characterisation remains broadly valid today, the article allows that while this does not mean there is necessarily a democratic deficit within the EU, there may be changes that could be made to encourage a more effective electoral process. Y1 - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.12942/lreg-2010-4 SN - 1813-856X VL - 5 IS - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lowe, Will A1 - Benoit, Kenneth A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Laver, Michael T1 - Scaling Policy Preferences From Coded Political Texts JF - Legislative Studies Quarterly N2 - Scholars estimating policy positions from political texts typically code words or sentences and then build left-right policy scales based on the relative frequencies of text units coded into different categories. Here we reexamine such scales and propose a theoretically and linguistically superior alternative based on the logarithm of odds- ratios. We contrast this scale with the current approach of the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), showing that our proposed logit scale avoids widely acknowledged flaws in previous approaches. We validate the new scale using independent expert surveys. Using existing CMP data, we show how to estimate more distinct policy dimensions, for more years, than has been possible before, and make this dataset publicly available. Finally, we draw some conclusions about the future design of coding schemes for political texts. Y1 - 2011 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-27945 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1939-9162.2010.00006.x VL - 36 IS - 1 SP - 123 EP - 155 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Laver, Michael A1 - Benoit, Kenneth T1 - Coder Reliability and Misclassification in the Human Coding of Party Manifestos JF - Political Analysis N2 - The Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) provides the only time series of estimated party policy positions in political science and has been extensively used in a wide variety of applications. Recent work (e.g., Benoit, Laver, and Mikhaylov 2009; Klingemann et al. 2006) focuses on nonsystematic sources of error in these estimates that arise from the text generation process. Our concern here, by contrast, is with error that arises during the text coding process since nearly all manifestos are coded only once by a single coder. First, we discuss reliability and misclassification in the context of hand-coded content analysis methods. Second, we report results of a coding experiment that used trained human coders to code sample manifestos provided by the CMP, allowing us to estimate the reliability of both coders and coding categories. Third, we compare our test codings to the published CMP “gold standard” codings of the test documents to assess accuracy and produce empirical estimates of a misclassification matrix for each coding category. Finally, we demonstrate the effect of coding misclassification on the CMP’s most widely used index, its left–right scale. Our findings indicate that misclassification is a serious and systemic problem with the current CMP data set and coding process, suggesting the CMP scheme should be significantly simplified to address reliability issues. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpr047 VL - 20 IS - 1 SP - 78 EP - 91 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Daubler, Thomas A1 - Benoit, Kenneth A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Laver, Michael T1 - Natural Sentences as Valid Units for Coded Political Texts JF - British Journal of Political Science N2 - All methods for analyzing text require the identification of a fundamental unit of analysis. In expert-coded content analysis schemes such as the Comparative Manifesto Project, this unit is the ‘quasi-sentence’: a natural sentence or a part of a sentence judged by the coder to have an independent component of meaning. Because they are subjective constructs identified by individual coders, however, quasi-sentences make text analysis fundamentally unreliable. The justification for quasi-sentences is a supposed gain in coding validity. We show that this justification is unfounded: using quasi-sentences does not produce valuable additional information in characterizing substantive political content. Using natural sentences as text units, by contrast, delivers perfectly reliable unitization with no measurable loss in content validity of the resulting estimates. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000105 VL - 42 IS - 4 SP - 937 EP - 951 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marsh, Michael A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Economic voting in a crisis: the Irish election of 2011 JF - Electoral Studies N2 - The paper explores a question raised by the 2011 Irish election, which saw an almost unprecedented decline in support for a major governing party after an economic collapse that necessitated an ECB/IMF ‘bailout’. This seems a classic case of ‘economic voting’ in which a government is punished for incompetent performance. How did the government lose this support: gradually, as successive economic indicators appeared negative, or dramatically, following major shocks? The evidence points to losses at two critical junctures. This is consistent with an interpretation of the link between economics and politics that allows for qualitative judgements by voters in assigning credit and blame for economic performance. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.02.010 VL - 31 IS - 3 SP - 478 EP - 484 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Benoit, Kenneth A1 - Laver, Michael A1 - Lowe, Will A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - How to scale coded text units without bias: A response to Gemenis JF - Electoral Studies N2 - Coding non-manifesto documents as if they were genuine policy platforms produced at election time clearly raises serious issues with error when these codings are used in the standard manner to estimate left-right policy positions. In addition to the long term solution of improving the document base of the Manifesto Project identified by Gemenis (2012), we argue that immediate gains in manifesto-based estimates of policy positions can be realised by using the confrontational logit scales from Lowe et al. (2011), which addresses the problems of scale content and scale construction that are exacerbated by but not unique to the problems found in proxy documents. Y1 - 2012 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-28033 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.05.004 IS - 3 SP - 605 EP - 608 ET - 31 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel A1 - Dawes, Christopher T. A1 - Christakis, Nicholas A. A1 - Fowler, James H. T1 - Born to Lead? A Twin Design and Genetic Association Study of Leadership Role Occupancy JF - The Leadership Quarterly N2 - We address leadership emergence and the possibility that there is a partially innate predisposition to occupy a leadership role. Employing twin design methods on data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we estimate the heritability of leadership role occupancy at 24%. Twin studies do not point to specific genes or neurological processes that might be involved. We therefore also conduct association analysis on the available genetic markers. The results show that leadership role occupancy is associated with rs4950, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) residing on a neuronal acetylcholine receptor gene (CHRNB3). We replicate this family-based genetic association result on an independent sample in the Framingham Heart Study. This is the first study to identify a specific genotype associated with the tendency to occupy a leadership position. The results suggest that what determines whether an individual occupies a leadership position is the complex product of genetic and environmental influences, with a particular role for rs4950. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2012.08.001 VL - 24 IS - 1 SP - 45 EP - 60 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baturo, Alexander A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Life of Brian Revisited: Assessing Informational and Non-Informational Leadership Tools JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - Recent literature models leadership as a process of communication in which leaders’ rhetorical signals facilitate followers’ co-ordination. While some studies have explored the effects of leadership in experimental settings, there remains a lack of empirical research on the effectiveness of informational tools in real political environments. Using quantitative text analysis of federal and sub-national legislative addresses in Russia, this article empirically demonstrates that followers react to informational signals from leaders. It further theorizes that leaders use a combination of informational and non-informational tools to solve the co-ordination problem. The findings show that a mixture of informational and non- informational tools shapes followers’ strategic calculi. Ignoring non-informational tools — and particularly the interrelationship between informational and non-informational tools - can threaten the internal validity of causal inference in the analysis of leadership effects on co-ordination. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.3 VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 139 EP - 157 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marsh, Michael A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - A Conservative Revolution: The electoral response to economic crisis in Ireland JF - Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties N2 - The 2011 election in Ireland was one of the most dramatic elections in European post-war history in terms of net electoral volatility. In some respects the election overturned the traditional party system. Yet it was a conservative revolution, one in which the main players remained the same, and the switch in the major government party was merely one in which one centre right party replaced another. Comparing voting behaviour over the last three elections we show that the 2011 election looks much like that of 2002 and 2007. The crisis did not result in the redefinition of the electoral landscape. While we find clear evidence of economic voting at the 2011 election, issue voting remained week. We believe that this is due to the fact that parties have not offered clear policy alternatives to the electorate in the recent past and did not do so in 2011. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2014.887719 SN - 1745-7289 VL - 24 IS - 2 SP - 160 EP - 179 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Marsh, Michael T1 - Reading The Tea Leaves: Medvedev’s Presidency Through Political Rhetoric Of Federal And Sub-National Actors JF - Europe-Asia Studies N2 - In the absence of public information on the inner workings of the Russian political regime, especially during Medvedev’s presidency, outside observers often have to rely on politicians’ unguarded comments or subjective analysis. Instead, we turn to quantitative text analysis of political rhetoric. Treating governors as a quasi-expert panel, we argue that policy positions revealed in regional legislative addresses explain how elites perceived the distribution of power between Putin and Medvedev. We find that governors moved from a neutral position in 2009 to a clearly pro-Putin position in 2011, and that policy initiatives advocated by Medvedev all but evaporated from the rhetoric of governors in 2012. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.926716 SN - 0966-8136 VL - 66 IS - 6 SP - 969 EP - 992 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Baturo, Alexander T1 - Blair Disease? Business Careers of the Former Democratic Heads of State and Government JF - Public Choice N2 - Examining the careers of democratic heads of state and government from 1960–2010, we find that one in every seven turns to the private sector after office. Distinguishing between the factors that attract leaders to business and those that render leaders attractive, we find that the global CEO compensation rates, cultural norms, having served in office in Anglo-Saxon countries as well as their personal background, matter. We also find that certain economic outcomes and policies in office such as economic growth and reduction in state spending are often associated with post-tenure business careers. We do not find evidence, however, that leaders are able to implement policies with future careers in mind, which would in turn raise concerns over accountability. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-016-0325-8 SN - 0048-5829 VL - 166 IS - 3-4 SP - 335 EP - 354 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Benoit, Kenneth A1 - Conway, Drew A1 - Laver, Michael T1 - Crowd-Sourced Text Analysis: Reproducible and agile production of political data JF - American Political Science Review N2 - Empirical social science often relies on data that are not observed in the field, but are transformed into quantitative variables by expert researchers who analyze and interpret qualitative raw sources. While generally considered the most valid way to produce data, this expert-driven process is inherently difficult to replicate or to assess on grounds of reliability. Using crowd-sourcing to distribute text for reading and interpretation by massive numbers of non-experts, we generate results comparable to those using experts to read and interpret the same texts, but do so far more quickly and flexibly. Crucially, the data we collect can be reproduced and extended transparently, making crowd-sourced datasets intrinsically reproducible. This focuses researchers’ attention on the fundamental scientific objective of specifying reliable and replicable methods for collecting the data needed, rather than on the content of any particular dataset. We also show that our approach works straightforwardly with different types of political text, written in different languages. While findings reported here concern text analysis, they have far-reaching implications for expert-generated data in the social sciences. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055416000058 SN - 0003-0554 VL - 110 IS - 2 SP - 278 EP - 295 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Baturo, Alexander A1 - Dasandi, Niheer T1 - Understanding State Preferences With Text As Data: Introducing the UN General Debate Corpus JF - Research & Politics N2 - Every year at the United Nations (UN), member states deliver statements during the General Debate (GD) discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments’ perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international politics. This paper introduces a new dataset consisting of over 7300 country statements from 1970–2014. We demonstrate how the UN GD corpus (UNGDC) can be used as a resource from which country positions on different policy dimensions can be derived using text analytic methods. The article provides applications of these estimates, demonstrating the contribution the UNGDC can make to the study of international politics. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168017712821 VL - 4 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Amann, Markus A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Bouley, Timothy A1 - Boykoff, Maxwell A1 - Byass, Peter A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Cox, Peter M A1 - Daly, Meaghan A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Depledge, Michael A1 - Depoux, Anneliese A1 - Dominguez-Salas, Paula A1 - Drummond, Paul A1 - Ekins, Paul A1 - Flathault, Antoine A1 - Frumkin, Howard A1 - Georgeson, Lucien A1 - Ghanei, Mostafa A1 - Grace, Delia A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Grojsman, Rébecca A1 - Haines, Andy A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - Johnson, Anne A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Liang, Lu A1 - Lott, Melissa A1 - Lowe, Robert A1 - Mace, Georgina A1 - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - Milner, James A1 - Latifi, Ali Mohammad A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Murray, Kris A1 - Neville, Tara A1 - Nilsson, Maria A1 - Oreszczyn, Tadj A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pencheon, David A1 - Pye, Steve A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Schütte, Stefanie A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Steinbach, Rebecca A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Wheeler, Nicola A1 - Wilkinson, Paul A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The Lancet countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health JF - The Lancet N2 - The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement, and the health implications of these actions. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, which concluded that anthropogenic climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health, and conversely, that a comprehensive response to climate change could be “the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century”. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32464-9 VL - 391 IS - 10120 SP - 581 EP - 630 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Pencheva, Irina A1 - Esteve, Marc T1 - Big Data & AI – A Transformational Shift for Government: So, What Next for Research? JF - Public Policy and Administration N2 - Big Data and Artificial Intelligence will have a profound transformational impact on governments around the world. Thus, it is important for scholars to provide a useful analysis on the topic to public managers and policymakers. This study offers an in-depth review of the Policy and Administration literature on the role of Big Data and advanced analytics in the public sector. It provides an overview of the key themes in the research field, namely the application and benefits of Big Data throughout the policy process, and challenges to its adoption and the resulting implications for the public sector. It is argued that research on the subject is still nascent and more should be done to ensure that the theory adds real value to practitioners. A critical assessment of the strengths and limitations of the existing literature is developed, and a future research agenda to address these gaps and enrich our understanding on the topic is proposed. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0952076718780537 SP - 1 EP - 21 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Esteve, Marc A1 - Campion, Averill T1 - Artificial intelligence for the public sector: opportunities and challenges of cross-sector collaboration BT - Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A N2 - Public sector organizations are increasingly interested in using data science and artificial intelligence capabilities to deliver policy and generate efficiencies in high uncertainty environments. The long-term success of data science and artificial intelligence (AI) in the public sector relies on effectively embedding it into delivery solutions for policy implementation. However, governments cannot do this integration of AI into public service delivery on their own. The UK Government Industrial Strategy is clear that delivering on the AI grand challenge requires collaboration between universities and public and private sectors. This cross-sectoral collaborative approach is the norm in applied AI centres of excellence around the world. Despite their popularity, cross-sector collaborations entail serious management challenges that hinder their success. In this article we discuss the opportunities and challenges from AI for public sector. Finally, we propose a series of strategies to successfully manage these cross-sectoral collaborations. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0357 VL - 376 IS - 2128 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Amann, Markus A1 - et al., T1 - The 2018 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: shaping the health of nations for centuries to come JF - The Lancet N2 - The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the health dimensions of the impacts of, and the response to, climate change. The Lancet Countdown tracks indicators across five domains: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; finance and economics; and public and political engagement. This report is the product of a collaboration of 27 leading academic institutions, the UN, and intergovernmental agencies from every continent. The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors. The Lancet Countdown’s work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32594-7 SN - 0140-6736 N1 - Complete author list: Jankin, Slava ; Watts, Nick ; Amann, Markus ; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja ; Belesova, Kristine ; Bouley, Timothy ; Boykoff, Maxwell ; Byass, Peter ; Cai, Wenjia ; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid ; Chambers, Jonathan ; Cox, Peter M ; Daly, Meaghan ; Dasandi, Niheer ; Davies, Michael ; Depledge, Michael ; Depoux, Anneliese ; Dominguez-Salas, Paula ; Drummond, Paul ; Ekins, Paul ; Flathault, Antoine ; Frumkin, Howard ; Georgeson, Lucien ; Ghanei, Mostafa ; Grace, Delia ; Graham, Hilary ; Grojsman, Rébecca ; Haines, Andy ; Hamilton, Ian ; Hartinger, Stella ; Johnson, Anne ; Kelman, Ilan ; Kiesewetter, Gregor ; Kniveton, Dominic ; Liang, Lu ; Lott, Melissa ; Lowe, Robert ; Mace, Georgina ; Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo ; Maslin, Mark ; Milner, James ; Latifi, Ali Mohammad ; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar ; Morrissey, Karyn ; Murray, Kris ; Neville, Tara ; Nilsson, Maria ; Oreszczyn, Tadj ; Owfi, Fereidoon ; Pencheon, David ; Pye, Steve ; Rabbaniha, Mahnaz ; Robinson, Elizabeth ; Rocklöv, Joacim ; Schütte, Stefanie ; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy ; Steinbach, Rebecca ; Tabatabaei, Meisam ; Wheeler, Nicola ; Wilkinson, Paul ; Gong, Peng ; Montgomery, Hugh ; Costello, Anthony VL - 392 IS - 10163 SP - 2479 EP - 2514 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Carmody, Pádraig A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Power Plays and Balancing Acts: The Paradoxical Effects of Chinese Trade on African Foreign Policy Positions JF - Political Studies N2 - There has been substantial focus on China’s influence in Africa in recent years. Some argue that China’s growing economic ties with African states have increased its political influence across the continent. This article examines whether trade with China leads African states to adopt more similar foreign policy preferences to China in the United Nations. We examine foreign policy similarity using voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly and country statements in the United Nations General Debate. The analysis demonstrates that more trade with China has paradoxical effects on foreign policy positions of African states—it leads them to align more closely with US foreign policy positions in the United Nations, except on human rights votes. Our findings suggest that African states are engaged in balancing behavior with external powers whereby African elites seek to play off rival powers against one another in order to strengthen their own autonomy and maximize trade. KW - China, Africa, foreign policy preferences, trade, United Nations, General Debate, General Assembly, text analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321719840962 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - al., et T1 - The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate JF - The Lancet N2 - The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6 VL - 394 IS - 10211 SP - 1836 EP - 1878 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pomeroy, Caleb A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Multiplex communities and the emergence of international conflict JF - PLoS One N2 - Advances in community detection reveal new insights into multiplex and multilayer networks. Less work, however, investigates the relationship between these communities and outcomes in social systems. We leverage these advances to shed light on the relationship between the cooperative mesostructure of the international system and the onset of interstate conflict. We detect communities based upon weaker signals of affinity expressed in United Nations votes and speeches, as well as stronger signals observed across multiple layers of bilateral cooperation. Communities of diplomatic affinity display an expected negative relationship with conflict onset. Ties in communities based upon observed cooperation, however, display no effect under a standard model specification and a positive relationship with conflict under an alternative specification. These results align with some extant hypotheses but also point to a paucity in our understanding of the relationship between community structure and behavioral outcomes in networks. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0223040 VL - 14 IS - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Application of Natural Language Processing to Determine User Satisfaction in Public Services JF - EasyChair Preprint N2 - Research on user satisfaction has increased substantially in recent years. Studies to date tend to test for significance of pre-defined factors thought to have an influence with no scalable means to verify the validity of the assumptions made. Digital technology has enabled new methods to collect user feedback, for example through online forums where service users post comments. Topic models can help analyze large volumes of such feedback and are proposed as a feasible solution to aggregate user opinions for use in the public sector. Insights can contribute to a more inclusive decision-making process in public services. This novel approach is applied to process reviews of publicly-funded primary care practices in England. Findings from the analysis of over 200,000 reviews indicate that the quality of interactions with staff and bureaucratic exigencies are the key drivers of user satisfaction. Moreover, patient satisfaction is strongly influenced by factors not considered in state-of-the-art patient surveys. These results highlight the potential benefits that text mining and machine learning for the public administration field. Y1 - 2019 UR - https://easychair.org/publications/preprint/xNmH VL - 1103 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Herzog, Alexander A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Intra-Cabinet Politics and Fiscal Governance in Times of Austerity JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - In the context of recent economic and financial crisis in Europe, questions about the power of the core executive to control fiscal outcomes are more important than ever. Why are some governments more effective in controlling spending while others fall prey to excessive overspending by individual cabinet ministers? We approach this question by lifting the veil of collective cabinet responsibility and focusing on intra-cabinet decision-making around budgetary allocation. Using the contributions of individual cabinet members during budget debates in Ireland, we estimate their positions on a latent dimension that represents their relative levels of support or opposition to the cabinet leadership. We find some evidence that ministers who are close to the finance minister receive a larger budget share, but under worsening macro-economic conditions closeness to the prime minister is a better predictor for budget allocations. Our results highlight potential fragility of the fiscal authority delegation mechanism in adverse economic environment. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2019.40 SP - 1 EP - 16 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kowalski, Radoslaw A1 - Esteve, Marc A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Improving Public Services by Mining Citizen Feedback: An Application of Natural Language Processing JF - Public Administration N2 - Research on user satisfaction has increased substantially in recent years. To date, most studies have tested the significance of pre‐defined factors thought to influence user satisfaction, with no scalable means of verifying the validity of their assumptions. Digital technology has created new methods of collecting user feedback where service users post comments. As topic models can analyze large volumes of feedback, they have been proposed as a feasible approach to aggregating user opinions. This novel approach has been applied to process reviews of primary‐care practices in England. Findings from an analysis of more than 200,000 reviews show that the quality of interactions with staff and bureaucratic exigencies are the key drivers of user satisfaction. In addition, patient satisfaction is strongly influenced by factors that are not measured by state‐of‐the‐art patient surveys. These results highlight the potential benefits of text mining and machine learning for public administration. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12656 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Béchara, Hannah A1 - Herzog, Alexander A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Transfer learning for topic labeling: Analysis of the UK House of Commons speeches 1935–2014 JF - Research and Politics N2 - Topic models are widely used in natural language processing, allowing researchers to estimate the underlying themes in a collection of documents. Most topic models require the additional step of attaching meaningful labels to estimated topics, a process that is not scalable, suffers from human bias, and is difficult to replicate. We present a transfer topic labeling method that seeks to remedy these problems, using domain-specific codebooks as the knowledge base to automatically label estimated topics. We demonstrate our approach with a large-scale topic model analysis of the complete corpus of UK House of Commons speeches from 1935 to 2014, using the coding instructions of the Comparative Agendas Project to label topics. We evaluated our results using human expert coding and compared our approach with more current state-of-the-art neural methods. Our approach was simple to implement, compared favorably to expert judgments, and outperformed the neural networks model for a majority of the topics we estimated. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680211022206 VL - April-June 2021 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Ushakova, Anastasia T1 - Big data to the rescue? Challenges in analysing granular household electricity consumption in the United Kingdom JF - Energy Research & Social Science N2 - Rapid growth in smart meter installations has given rise to vast collections of data at a high time-resolution and down to an individual level. However, to enable efficient policy interventions, we need to be able to appropriately segment the population of users. The aim of this paper is to consider challenges and opportunities associated with large highly-granular temporal datasets that describe residential electricity consumption. In particular, the focus is on experiments relating to aggregation of smart meter time-series data in the context of clustering and prediction tasks that are often used for customer targeting and to gain insight on energy-use about sub populations. To cluster energy use profiles, we propose a novel framework based on a set of Gaussian based models which we use to encode individuals’ energy consumption over time. The dataset consists of half hourly electricity consumption records from smart meters of households in the UK (2014–2015). The contribution of this paper comes from its investigation of how consumers or groups may be clustered according to model parameters in scenarios where additional data on consumers is not available to the researcher, or where anonymity preservation of the smart meter user is prioritised. A secondary aim is to invite greater awareness when data reduction is required to reduce the size of a large dataset for computational purposes. This may have implications for policy interventions acting at the individual or small group level, for instance, when designing incentives to encourage energy efficient behaviour or when identifying fuel poor customers. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101428 VL - 64 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Chatsiou, Kakia A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Deep Learning for Political Science JF - The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations N2 - Political science, and social science in general, have traditionally been using computational methods to study areas such as voting behavior, policy making, international conflict, and international development. More recently, increasingly available quantities of data are being combined with improved algorithms and affordable computational resources to predict, learn, and discover new insights from data that is large in volume and variety. New developments in the areas of machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing (NLP), and, more generally, artificial intelligence (AI) are opening up new opportunities for testing theories and evaluating the impact of interventions and programs in a more dynamic and effective way. Applications using large volumes of structured and unstructured data are becoming common in government and industry, and increasingly also in social science research. This chapter offers an introduction to such methods drawing examples from political science. Focusing on the areas where the strengths of the methods coincide with challenges in these fields, the chapter first presents an introduction to AI and its core technology - machine learning, with its rapidly developing subfield of deep learning. The discussion of deep neural networks is illustrated with the NLP tasks that are relevant to political science. The latest advances in deep learning methods for NLP are also reviewed, together with their potential for improving information extraction and pattern recognition from political science texts. Y1 - 2020 UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06540v1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Campion, Averill A1 - Gasco, Mila A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Esteve, Marc T1 - Managing Artificial Intelligence Deployment in the Public Sector JF - Computer/IEEE, 2020 N2 - The scarcity of empirical evidence surrounding the organizational challenges and successful approaches to artificial intelligence (AI) deployment has resulted in mostly theoretical conceptualizations. By analyzing policy labs and offices of data analytics across the US to understand organizational challenges of AI adoption and implementation in the public sector as well as to identify successful management strategies to address such challenges, our study moves from speculation to gathering evidence. Our findings show that most challenges are found during the implementation stage and include challenges related to skills, culture, and resistance to share the data driven by data challenges. Further, our results indicate that long term strategies and short term actions need to be put in place to address these challenges. Among the first ones, leadership and executive support and stakeholder management seem to play an important role. Data standardization, training, and data-sharing agreements also seem to be successful specific short-term actions. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/MC.2020.2995644 VL - 53 IS - 10 SP - 28 EP - 37 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Engagement with health in national climate change commitments under the Paris Agreement: a global mixed-methods analysis of the nationally determined contributions JF - Lancet Planetary Health N2 - Background: Instituted under the Paris Agreement, nationally determined contributions (NDCs) outline countries’ plans for mitigating and adapting to climate change. They are the primary policy instrument for protecting people’s health in the face of rising global temperatures. However, evidence on engagement with health in the NDCs is scarce. In this study, we aimed to examine how public health is incorporated in the NDCs, and how different patterns of engagement might be related to broader inequalities and tensions in global climate politics. Methods: We analysed the NDCs in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change registry submitted by 185 countries. Using content analysis and natural language processing (NLP) methods, we developed measures of health engagement. Multivariate regression analyses examined whether country-level factors (eg, population size, gross domestic product [GDP], and climate-related exposures) were associated with greater health engagement. Using NLP methods, we compared health engagement with other climate-related challenges (ie, economy, energy, and agriculture) and examined broader differences in the keyword terms used in countries with high and low health engagement in their NDCs. Findings: Countries that did not mention health in their NDCs were clustered in high-income countries, whereas greater health engagement was concentrated in low-income and middle-income countries. Having a low GDP per capita and being a small island developing state were associated with higher levels of health engagement. In addition, higher levels of population exposure to temperature change and ambient air pollution were associated with more health coverage included in a country’s NDC. Variation in health engagement was greater than for other climate-related issues and reflected wider differences in countries’ approaches to the NDCs. Interpretation: A focus on health in the NDCs follows broader patterns of global inequalities. Poorer and climate-vulnerable countries that contribute least to climate change are more likely to engage with health in their NDCs, while richer countries focus on non-health sectors in their NDCs, such as energy and the economy. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30302-8 VL - 5 IS - 2 SP - 93 EP - 101 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Intergovernmental engagement on health impacts of climate change JF - Bulletin of the World Health Organization N2 - Objective: To examine country engagement with the health impacts of climate change in (1) annual statements in the UN General Debate (UNGD); and (2) the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement; and to identify what factors drive country engagement. Methods: First, we measure engagement by the total references to the health and climate change relationship in each text, using a keyword-in-context search with relevant search terms. Second, we use machine learning models, specifically random forest models, to identify the most important country-level predictors of engagement. Our predictors are political and economic factors, health outcomes, climate change-related variables, and membership of political negotiating groups in the UN. Findings: For both UNGD statements and NDCs, we find that that low- and middle-income countries discuss the health impacts of climate change much more than high-income countries. We find that the most important predictors of country engagement are related health outcomes (infant mortality rates, maternal death risk, life expectancy), countries’ income levels (GDP per capita), and fossil fuel consumption. Membership of political negotiating groups (e.g. G77 and SIDS) is less important predictors. Conclusion: Our analysis indicates a North-South division in engagement, and hence there is little to suggest that a health framing of climate change overcomes existing geopolitical divisions in climate change negotiations. Countries who carry the heaviest health burdens but lack necessary resources to address the impacts of climate change are shouldering responsibility for reminding the global community of the implications of climate change for people’s health. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.270033 VL - 102 IS - 111 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Amann, Markus A1 - Arnell, Nigel A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Beagley, Jessica A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Boykoff, Maxwell A1 - Byass, Peter A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Capstick, Stuart A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Coleman, Samantha A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Daly, Meaghan A1 - Dasandi, Niheer T1 - The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises JF - The Lancet N2 - The world has already warmed by more than 1.2C compared with preindustrial levels, resulting in profound, immediate, and rapidly worsening health effects, and moving dangerously close to the agreed limit of maintaining temperatures “well below 2C”. These health impacts are seen on every continent, with the ongoing spread of dengue virus across South America, the cardiovascular and respiratory effects of record heatwaves and wildfires in Australia, western North America, and western Europe, and the undernutrition and mental health effects of floods and droughts in China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and South Africa. In the long term, climate change threatens the very foundations of human health and wellbeing, with the Global Risks Report registering climate change as one of the five most damaging or probable global risks every year for the past decade. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X VL - 397 IS - 10269 SP - 129 EP - 170 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ushakova, Anastasia A1 - Jankin, Slava T1 - Big data to the rescue? Challenges in analysing granular household electricity consumption in the United Kingdom JF - Energy Research & Social Science N2 - Rapid growth in smart meter installations has given rise to vast collections of data at a high time-resolution and down to an individual level. However, to enable efficient policy interventions, we need to be able to appropriately segment the population of users. The aim of this paper is to consider challenges and opportunities associated with large highly-granular temporal datasets that describe residential electricity consumption. In particular, the focus is on experiments relating to aggregation of smart meter time-series data in the context of clustering and prediction tasks that are often used for customer targeting and to gain insight on energy-use about sub populations. To cluster energy use profiles, we propose a novel framework based on a set of Gaussian based models which we use to encode individuals’ energy consumption over time. The dataset consists of half hourly electricity consumption records from smart meters of households in the UK (2014–2015). The contribution of this paper comes from its investigation of how consumers or groups may be clustered according to model parameters in scenarios where additional data on consumers is not available to the researcher, or where anonymity preservation of the smart meter user is prioritised. A secondary aim is to invite greater awareness when data reduction is required to reduce the size of a large dataset for computational purposes. This may have implications for policy interventions acting at the individual or small group level, for instance, when designing incentives to encourage energy efficient behaviour or when identifying fuel poor customers. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101428 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 64 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - van Daalen, Kim A1 - Anto, Joesp M. A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Drummond, Paul A1 - Hamilton, Ian G. A1 - Kendrovski, Vladimir A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Schmoll, Oliver A1 - Semenza, Jan C. A1 - Tonne, Cathryn A1 - Nilsson, Maria T1 - Tracking progress on health and climate change in Europe JF - The Lancet Public Health N2 - Left unabated, climate change will have catastrophic effects on the health of present and future generations. Such effects are already seen in Europe, through more frequent and severe extreme weather events, alterations to water and food systems, and changes in the environmental suitability for infectious diseases. As one of the largest current and historical contributors to greenhouse gases and the largest provider of financing for climate change mitigation and adaptation, Europe’s response is crucial, for both human health and the planet. To ensure that health and wellbeing are protected in this response it is essential to build the capacity to understand, monitor, and quantify health impacts of climate change and the health co-benefits of accelerated action. Responding to this need, the Lancet Countdown in Europe is established as a transdisciplinary research collaboration for monitoring progress on health and climate change in Europe. With the wealth of data and academic expertise available in Europe, the collaboration will develop region-specific indicators to address the main challenges and opportunities of Europe’s response to climate change for health. The indicators produced by the collaboration will provide information to health and climate policy decision making, and will also contribute to the European Observatory on Climate and Health. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00207-3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Di Napoli, Claudia A1 - Drummond, Paul A1 - Green, Carole A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Arnell, Nigel A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Berrang Ford, Lea A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Bowen, Kathryn A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Daalen, Kim R van A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Dominguez-Salas, Paula A1 - Dubrow, Robert A1 - Ebi, Kristie L A1 - Eckelman, Matthew A1 - Ekins, Paul A1 - Escobar, Luis E A1 - Georgeson, Lucien A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Gunther, Samuel H A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hang, Yun A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - He, Kehan A1 - Hess, Jeremy J A1 - Hsu, Shih-Che A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Jamart, Louis A1 - Jay, Ollie A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kinney, Patrick A1 - Kjellstrom, Tord A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Lee, Jason K W A1 - Lemke, Bruno A1 - Liu, Zhao A1 - Lott, Melissa A1 - Lotto Batista, Martin A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - MacGuire, Frances A1 - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - McAllister, Lucy A1 - McGushin, Alice A1 - McMichael, Celia A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Milner, James A1 - Minor, Kelton A1 - Minx, Jan C A1 - Mohajeri, Nahid A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Murray, Kris A A1 - Neville, Tara A1 - Nilsson, Maria A1 - Obradovich, Nick A1 - O'Hare, Megan B A1 - Oreszczyn, Tadj A1 - Otto, Matthias A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pearman, Olivia A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth J Z A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Salas, Renee N A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Sherman, Jodi D A1 - Shi, Liuhua A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Silbert, Grant A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Stowell, Jennifer A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Taylor, Jonathon A1 - Triñanes, Joaquin A1 - Wagner, Fabian A1 - Wilkinson, Paul A1 - Winning, Matthew A1 - Yglesias-González, Marisol A1 - Zhang, Shihui A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9 VL - 400 IS - 10363 SP - 1619 EP - 1654 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Walawender, Maria A1 - Hsu, Shih-Che A1 - Moskeland, Annalyse A1 - Palmeiro-Silva, Yasna A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Ali, Zakari A1 - Ameli, Nadia A1 - Angelova, Denitsa A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Basart, Sara A1 - Beagley, Jessica A1 - Beggs, Paul J A1 - Blanco-Villafuerte, Luciana A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Chambers, Jonathan D A1 - Chicmana-Zapata, Victoria A1 - Chu, Lingzhi A1 - Cross, Troy J A1 - van Daalen, Kim R A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Dubrow, Robert A1 - Eckelman, Matthew J A1 - Ford, James D A1 - Freyberg, Chris A1 - Gasparyan, Olga A1 - Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana A1 - Grubb, Michael A1 - Gunther, Samuel H A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hang, Yun A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - He, Kehan A1 - Heidecke, Julian A1 - Hess, Jeremy J A1 - Jamart, Louis A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Jatkar, Harshavardhan A1 - Jay, Ollie A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kinney, Patrick A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Kouznetsov, Rostislav A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Lee, Jason K W A1 - Lemke, Bruno A1 - Li, Bo A1 - Liu, Yang A1 - Liu, Zhao A1 - Llabrés-Brustenga, Alba A1 - Lott, Melissa A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - McAllister, Lucy A1 - McMichael, Celia A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Milner, James A1 - Minor, Kelton A1 - Minx, Jan A1 - Mohajeri, Nahid A1 - Momen, Natalie C A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrisey, Karyn A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Murray, Kris A A1 - Obradovich, Nick A1 - O'Hare, Megan B A1 - Oliveira, Camile A1 - Oreszczyn, Tadj A1 - Otto, Matthias A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pearman, Olivia L A1 - Pega, Frank A1 - Perishing, Andrew J A1 - Pinho-Gomes, Ana-Catarina A1 - Ponmattam, Jamie A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Rickman, Jamie A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Rojas-Rueda, David A1 - Salas, Renee N A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Sherman, Jodi D A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Singh, Pratik A1 - Sjödin, Henrik A1 - Slater, Jessica A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Sorensen, Cecilia A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Stalhandske, Zélie A1 - Stowell, Jennifer D A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Taylor, Jonathon A1 - Tong, Daniel A1 - Tonne, Cathryn A1 - Treskova, Marina A1 - Trinanes, Joaquin A A1 - Uppstu, Andreas A1 - Wagner, Fabian A1 - Warnecke, Laura A1 - Whitcombe, Hannah A1 - Xian, Peng A1 - Zavaleta-Cortijo, Carol A1 - Zhang, Chi A1 - Zhang, Ran A1 - Zhang, Shihui A1 - Zhang, Ying A1 - Zhu, Qiao A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01822-1 SN - 0140-6736 VL - 404 IS - 10465 SP - 1847 EP - 1896 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Chelotti, Nicola A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Jankin Mikhaylov, Slava T1 - Do Intergovernmental Organizations Have a Socialization Effect on Member State Preferences? Evidence from the UN General Debate JF - International Studies Quarterly N2 - The question of whether intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) have a socialization effect on member state preferences is central to international relations. However, empirical studies have struggled to separate the socializing effects of IGOs on preferences from the coercion and incentives associated with IGOs that may lead to foreign policy alignment without altering preferences. This article addresses this issue. We adopt a novel approach to measuring state preferences by applying text analytic methods to country statements in the annual United Nations General Debate (UNGD). The absence of interstate coordination with UNGD statements makes them particularly well suited for testing socialization effects on state preferences. We focus on the European Union (EU), enabling us to incorporate the pre-accession period—when states have the strongest incentives for foreign policy alignment—into our analysis. The results of our analysis show that EU membership has a socialization effect that produces preference convergence, controlling for coercion and incentive effects. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab069 SN - 0020-8833 VL - 66 IS - 1 PB - Oxford University Press (OUP) ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Friberg, Peter A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Kuylenstierna, Johan A1 - Nilsson, Maria T1 - The inclusion of health in major global reports on climate change and biodiversity JF - BMJ Global Health N2 - This article argues that human health has become a key consideration in recent global reports on climate change and biodiversity produced by various international organisations; however, greater attention must be given to the unequal health impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss around the world and the different health adaptation measures that are urgently required. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008731 SN - 2059-7908 VL - 7 IS - 6 PB - BMJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weeks, Liam A1 - Jankin Mikhaylov, Slava A1 - Herzog, Alex A1 - Ó Fathartaigh, Mícheál A1 - Bechara, Hannah T1 - It’s Only Words? Analysing the Roots of the Irish Party System Using Historical Parliamentary Debates JF - Parliamentary Affairs N2 - While the public image of legislative debates is often less than favourable, parliamentary deliberations can be an important indicator of policy preferences, issue saliency and cohesion within political parties. We consider the case of a parliamentary debate that had a considerable long-term political legacy, forging a party system that endured for almost a century. The debates in the Irish parliament over the 1921 Anglo-Irish Treaty were a critical juncture that split a dominant party, resulting in, first, a civil war and, later, a new mode of party competition. We analyse the text of the debates from this period to see if they contribute to a greater understanding of the ensuing split. Few differences between the two sides in parliament are found, which might explain why few were the differences between the key actors in the party system that evolved. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsac020 SN - 0031-2290 N1 - Published 29 September 2022 Weeks, L., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Herzog, A., Ó Fathartaigh, M., & Bechara, H. (2023). It’s Only Words? Analysing the Roots of the Irish Party System Using Historical Parliamentary Debates. Parliamentary Affairs, 76(4), 836–856. https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsac020 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Müller-Hansen, Finn A1 - Lee, Yuan Ting A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - The German coal debate on Twitter: Reactions to a corporate policy process JF - Energy Policy N2 - Phasing out coal is a prerequisite to achieving the Paris climate mitigation targets. In 2018, the German government established a multi-stakeholder commission with the mandate to negotiate a plan for the national coal phase-out, fueling a continued public debate over the future of coal. This study analyzes the German coal debate on Twitter before, during, and after the session of the so-called Coal Commission, over a period of three years. In particular, we investigate whether and how the work of the commission translated into shared perceptions and sentiments in the public debate on Twitter. We find that the sentiment of the German coal debate on Twitter becomes increasingly negative over time. In addition, the sentiment becomes more polarized over time due to an increase in the use of more negative and positive language. The analysis of retweet networks shows no increase in interactions between communities over time. These findings suggest that the Coal Commission did not further consensus in the coal debate on Twitter. While the debate on social media only represents a section of the national debate, it provides insights for policy-makers to evaluate the interaction of multi-stakeholder commissions and public debates. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113178 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 169 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Hudson, David A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - vanHeerde-Hudson, Jennifer A1 - Watts, Nick T1 - Positive, global, and health or environment framing bolsters public support for climate policies JF - Communications Earth & Environment N2 - Public support for climate policies is important for their efficacy, yet little is known about how different framings of climate change affect public support for climate policies around the world. Here we report findings from a conjoint experiment of 7,500 adults in five countries – China, Germany, India, UK, and USA – to identify climate messages that elicit greater support for policies to tackle climate change. Messages were randomly varied on four attributes: positive (opportunity) or negative (threat) framings, theme (health, environment, economy, migration), scale (individual, community, national, global), and time (current, 2030, 2050). We find that a positive frame, health and environmental frames, and global and immediate frames bolster public support. We examine differences between countries, and across groups within countries – particularly focusing on the effect of these frames among individuals that are unconcerned about climate change. Among this group, positive and health frames increase the likelihood of support for climate policies, indicating the relevance of these frames for shifting policy preferences for different audience groups. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00571-x SN - 2662-4435 VL - 3 IS - 1 PB - Springer Science and Business Media LLC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van Daalen, Kim R A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Tonne, Cathryn A1 - Markandya, Anil A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Achebak, Hicham A1 - Ballester, Joan A1 - Bechara, Hannah A1 - Callaghan, Max W A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Drummond, Paul A1 - Farooq, Zia A1 - Gasparyan, Olga A1 - Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Kazmierczak, Aleksandra A1 - Kendrovski, Vladimir A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Lloyd, Simon J A1 - Lotto Batista, Martin A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Milà, Carles A1 - Minx, Jan C A1 - Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark A1 - Palamarchuk, Julia A1 - Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth J Z A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Schmoll, Oliver A1 - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo A1 - Sjödin, Henrik A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Triñanes, Joaquin A1 - Anto, Josep M A1 - Nilsson, Maria A1 - Lowe, Rachel T1 - The 2022 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: towards a climate resilient future JF - The Lancet Public Health Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(22)00197-9 SN - 2468-2667 VL - 7 IS - 11 SP - E942 EP - E965 PB - Elsevier BV ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Napoli, Claudia di A1 - Green, Carole A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Walawender, Maria A1 - Ali, Zakari A1 - Ameli, Nadia A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Beggs, Paul J A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Berrang Ford, Lea A1 - Bowen, Kathryn A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Cross, Troy J A1 - van Daalen, Kim R A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Dominguez-Salas, Paula A1 - Dubrow, Robert A1 - Ebi, Kristie L A1 - Eckelman, Matthew A1 - Ekins, Paul A1 - Freyberg, Chris A1 - Gasparyan, Olga A1 - Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Gunther, Samuel H A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hang, Yun A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - He, Kehan A1 - Heidecke, Julian A1 - Hess, Jeremy J A1 - Hsu, Shih-Che A1 - Jamart, Louis A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Jay, Ollie A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kinney, Patrick A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Kouznetsov, Rostislav A1 - Larosa, Francesca A1 - Lee, Jason K W A1 - Lemke, Bruno A1 - Liu, Yang A1 - Liu, Zhao A1 - Lott, Melissa A1 - Lotto Batista, Martín A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - Odhiambo Sewe, Maquins A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - McAllister, Lucy A1 - McMichael, Celia A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Milner, James A1 - Minor, Kelton A1 - Minx, Jan C A1 - Mohajeri, Nahid A1 - Momen, Natalie C A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Murray, Kris A A1 - Neville, Tara A1 - Nilsson, Maria A1 - Obradovich, Nick A1 - O'Hare, Megan B A1 - Oliveira, Camile A1 - Oreszczyn, Tadj A1 - Otto, Matthias A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pearman, Olivia A1 - Pega, Frank A1 - Pershing, Andrew A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Rickman, Jamie A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth J Z A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Salas, Renee N A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Sherman, Jodi D A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Silbert, Grant A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Stowell, Jennifer D A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Taylor, Jonathon A1 - Thompson, Ross A1 - Tonne, Cathryn A1 - Treskova, Marina A1 - Trinanes, Joaquin A A1 - Wagner, Fabian A1 - Warnecke, Laura A1 - Whitcombe, Hannah A1 - Winning, Matthew A1 - Wyns, Arthur A1 - Yglesias-González, Marisol A1 - Zhang, Shihui A1 - Zhang, Ying A1 - Zhu, Qiao A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7 VL - 402 IS - 10419 SP - 2346 EP - 2394 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Walawender, Maria A1 - Hsu, Shih-Che A1 - Moskeland, Annalyse A1 - Palmeiro-Silva, Yasna A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Smallcombe, James W A1 - Abdullah, Sabah A1 - Ades, Melanie A1 - Al-Maruf, Abdullah A1 - Ameli, Nadia A1 - Angelova, Denitsa A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Ballester, Joan A1 - Basagaña, Xavier A1 - Bechara, Hannah A1 - Beggs, Paul J A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Charnley, Gina E C A1 - Courtenay, Orin A1 - Cross, Troy J A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Eckelman, Matthew A1 - Freyberg, Chris A1 - Garcia Corral, Paulina A1 - Gasparyan, Olga A1 - Giguere, Joseph A1 - Gordon-Strachan, Georgiana A1 - Gumy, Sophie A1 - Gunther, Samuel H A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hang, Yun A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - He, Kehan A1 - Heidecke, Julian A1 - Hess, Jeremy J A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Jay, Ollie A1 - Pantera, Dafni Kalatzi A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kinney, Patrick A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Koubi, Vally A1 - Kouznetsov, Rostislav A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Lee, Jason K W A1 - Lemke, Bruno A1 - Li, Bo A1 - Linke, Andrew A1 - Liu, Yang A1 - Liu, Zhao A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - Ma, Siqi A1 - Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe A1 - Maia, Carla A1 - Markandya, Anil A1 - Martin, Greta A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - McAllister, Lucy A1 - McMichael, Celia A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Milner, James A1 - Minor, Kelton A1 - Minx, Jan A1 - Mohajeri, Nahid A1 - Momen, Natalie C A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrisey, Karyn A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Murray, Kris A A1 - Obradovich, Nick A1 - Orgen, Papa A1 - Otto, Matthias A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pearman, Olivia L A1 - Pega, Frank A1 - Pershing, Andrew J A1 - Pinho-Gomes, Ana-Catarina A1 - Ponmattam, Jamie A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Repke, Tim A1 - Roa, Jorge A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Rojas-Rueda, David A1 - Ruiz-Cabrejos, Jorge A1 - Rusticucci, Matilde A1 - Salas, Renee N A1 - San José Plana, Adrià A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Sherman, Jodi D A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Singh, Pratik A1 - Sjödin, Henrik A1 - Smith, Matthew R A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Sorensen, Cecilia A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Stowell, Jennifer D A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Tartarini, Federico A1 - Taylor, Jonathon A1 - Tonne, Cathryn A1 - Treskova, Marina A1 - Trinanes, Joaquin A A1 - Uppstu, Andreas A1 - Valdes-Ortega, Nicolas A1 - Wagner, Fabian A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Whitcombe, Hannah A1 - Wood, Richard A1 - Yang, Pu A1 - Zhang, Ying A1 - Zhang, Shaohui A1 - Zhang, Chi A1 - Zhang, Shihui A1 - Zhu, Qiao A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: climate change action offers a lifeline JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1 VL - 406 IS - 10521 SP - 2804 EP - 2857 PB - Elsevier BV ER -