TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Sun, Chen A1 - Sunde, Uwe A1 - Weizsäcker, Georg T1 - Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents’ degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 4 KW - Expectation Formation, Time perception, Sub-additivity, Super-additivity Y1 - 2022 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-46602 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-4660 ET - No. 4 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Becker, Sebastian A1 - Buslei, Hermann A1 - Geyer, Johannes A1 - Haan, Peter T1 - The effect of pension wealth on employment N2 - This study provides novel evidence about the pension wealth elasticity of employment. For the identification we exploit reform-induced variation of pension wealth that is related to the number of children but which does not affect the implicit tax rate of employment. We use a difference-in-differences estimator based on administrative data from the German pension insurance and find that, on average, the negative employment effect of pension wealth is significant and economically important. Heterogeneity analyses document a strong age pattern showing that the employment effects are driven by behavioral responses of women close to retirement. The age pattern is partly explained by the positive effect of pension wealth on disability pensions after the age of 60. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 9 KW - pension reform, pension wealth elasticity, female labour supply, retirement, differences in differences Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-47027 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-4702 ET - No. 9 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Santonja, Adrián A1 - Zaklan, Aleksandar T1 - Effectiveness and Heterogeneous Effects of Purchase Grants for Electric Vehicles N2 - We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level CO2 standards using neighboring countries as a control group. The program was cost-ineffective, as only 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced, and had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. The implied abatement cost of 870 euro per ton of CO2 for BEVs and 2,470 euro for PHEVs suggests that subsidies to PHEVs were especially cost-ineffective. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 11 KW - Decarbonizing road transport, electric mobility, purchase subsidies, policy effectiveness, distributional effects of climate policy Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-47610 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-4761 ET - No. 11 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Prowse, Victoria T1 - The Heterogeneous Effects of Social Assistance and Unemployment Insurance: Evidence from a Life-Cycle Model of Family Labor Supply and Savings T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We empirically analyze the heterogeneous welfare effects of unemployment insurance and social assistance. We estimate a structural life-cycle model of singles’ and married couples’ labor supply and savings decisions. The model includes heterogeneity by age, education, wealth, sex and household composition. In aggregate, social assistance dominates unemployment insurance; however, the opposite holds true for married men, whose leisure time declines more than that of their spouses when unemployment insurance is reduced. A revenue-neutral rebalancing of social support away from unemployment insurance and toward social assistance increases aggregate welfare. Income pooling in married households decreases the welfare value of social assistance. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 20 Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-50128 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5012 ET - No. 20 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Kemptner, Daniel A1 - Prowse, Victoria A1 - Schaller, Maximilian T1 - Insurance, Redistribution, and the Inequality of Lifetime Income T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Individuals vary considerably in how much they earn during their lifetimes. This study examines the role of the tax-and-transfer system in mitigating such inequalities, which could otherwise lead to disparities in living standards. Utilizing a life-cycle model, we determine that taxes and transfers offset 45% of lifetime earnings inequality attributed to differences in productive abilities and education. Additionally, the system insures against 48% of lifetime earnings risk. Implementing a lifetime tax reform linking annual taxes to previous employment could improve the system’s insurance capabilities, albeit at the cost of a lower employment rate. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 28 KW - Economics Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-51126 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5112 ET - No. 28 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Sun, Chen A1 - Weinhardt, Felix A1 - Weizsäcker, Georg T1 - Measuring Long-Run Expectations that Correlate with Investment Decisions T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual growth rates over the next 10 years, or they predict the total, cumulative growth that occurs over the 10-year period. Results show that total 10-year forecasts are more pessimistic than average annual forecasts, but they better predict experimental portfolio choices and real-world stock market participation. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 70 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59042 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5904 ET - No. 70 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Traxler, Christian T1 - An Evaluation of Montenegro's 2022 Minimum Wage and Income Tax Reform N2 - Between 2018 and 2022, Montenegro introduced a series of significant policy reforms. The reforms affected economic, educational, and social policies, ranging from the introduction of a universal child allowance to major changes in its labour market regulations and tax rules. From an economic policy perspective, the most significant reform package was implemented in January 2022. It was composed of a huge increase in Montenegro’s statutory minimum wage, alongside a new income tax regime and the abolishment of mandatory health insurance contributions. According to the Government, the reform package aimed at increasing the living standards of citizens and promoting a more sustainable and inclusive growth model. This report evaluates the conjoint impact of this reform package. KW - Economics Y1 - 2023 UR - https://www.esap.online/docs/213/ilo-esap-2-an-evaluation-of-montenegros-2022-minimum-wage-and-income-tax-reform SN - 9789220402009 PB - International Labour Organization CY - Geneva ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Becker, Sebastian A1 - Gehlen, Annica A1 - Geyer, Johannes A1 - Haan, Peter T1 - Income Effects of Disability Benefits T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - We provide novel evidence about the incentive and welfare effects of an increase in the generosity of disability benefits. Importantly, a unique policy variation in Germany allows us to isolate the income effect of a change in benefit generosity. We leverage this quasi-experimental policy variation using an RD design to estimate the effect of increasing disability benefits on employment, earnings, labor market transitions, and mortality outcomes using administrative data on the universe of new disability benefit recipients. Contrary to previous literature, our analysis reveals no significant impact on the employment and earnings of DI recipients due to the increased benefits. However, we find a sizable effect of the probability of returning to the labor market. We find no effects on recipient mortality six years after benefit award, but estimates imply a notable reduction in poverty risk, highlighting meaningful welfare implications of increased generosity. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 50 Y1 - 2024 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-56065 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5606 ET - No. 50 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Schmauk, Sarah A1 - Mika, Tatjana T1 - Rentenansprüche von Frauen bleiben mit steigender Kinderzahl deutlich hinter denen von Männern zurück JF - DIW Wochenbericht N2 - Frauen verdienen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt im Durchschnitt deutlich weniger als Männer. Im Jahr 2024 betrug der sogenannte Gender Pay Gap, der den Unterschied der Bruttostundenlöhne misst, in Deutschland 16 Prozent.info Da die Rentenansprüche aus der gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung in Deutschland direkt von den Löhnen abhängen, überträgt sich diese Lohndifferenz auch auf Unterschiede bei den Rentenansprüchen. Der Unterschied zwischen Männern und Frauen wird als Gender Pension Gap bezeichnet.info Die unterschiedlichen Löhne sind aber nur ein Faktor für die Differenz. Weitere Gründe sind häufige Erwerbsunterbrechungen von Frauen, beispielsweise wegen Kinderbetreuung oder der Pflege von Angehörigen, Segregation auf dem Arbeitsmarktinfo oder Unterschieden bei der Teilzeiterwerbstätigkeit, die sich auf geschlechtsspezifische soziale Normen und Stereotype zurückführen lassen.info Mit der Einführung der Kindererziehungszeiten im Jahr 1986, die durch mehrere Reformen ausgeweitet wurden, sollten die individuellen Rentenansprüche von Müttern erhöht werden. Damit sollte langfristig der Gender Pension Gap und auch der Motherhood Pension Gap, also der Unterschied zwischen den Rentenansprüchen von Frauen mit und ohne Kinder, reduziert werden.info In diesem Wochenbericht werden auf Basis der Versichertenkontenstichprobe (VSKT) der Deutschen Rentenversicherung die Unterschiede bei den gesetzlichen Rentenansprüchen von Männern und Frauen sowie für Frauen nach Anzahl der Kinder untersucht (Kasten 1). Darüber hinaus zeigen die Auswertungen, welche Rolle die Kindererziehungszeiten knapp 40 Jahre nach ihrer Einführung spielen. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18723/diw_wb:2025-12-1 SN - 1860-8787 VL - 92 IS - 12 SP - 183 EP - 189 PB - DIW Berlin — Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Schmauk, Sarah A1 - Mika, Tatjana T1 - The Gender Pension Gap Grows the More Children a Woman Has JF - DIW Weekly Report N2 - The gender pension gap, the difference in pension entitlements between men and women, is 32 percent for 60-yearolds according to data from the German Pension Insurance (Deutsche Rentenversicherung). In addition, there is a considerable motherhood pension gap: Statutory pension entitlements for mothers and childless women differ greatly. Pensionrelated childcare credits, which were introduced in 1986 and have been modified many times since, counteract this gap. Recognition of pension-related childcare credits reduce the difference in pension entitlements between childless women and mothers considerably, albeit only in the immediate years following the birth of a child. For the birth cohorts from 1952 to 1959, the motherhood pension gap for 60-year-olds in western Germany is 26 percent; pension-related childcare credits could not close the gap. Further social and tax policy measures supporting an equal division of care work and paid work are necessary. In addition to expanding public child care, reforms to joint taxation of married couples with full income splitting (Ehegattensplitting) and reducing subsidies for jobs with few working hours (Minijobs) as well as a restructuring of the workplace to be more caretaker-friendly are required. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18723/diw_dwr:2025-12-1 SN - 2568-7697 VL - 15 IS - 12+13 SP - 79 EP - 85 PB - DIW Berlin — Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Geyer, Johannes A1 - Haan, Peter A1 - Teschner, Mia T1 - The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Long-Term Care: Evidence on Prices T2 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers N2 - The price of institutional long-term care is a key determinant of the demand for both formal and informal long-term care. In this paper, we examine how the regional unemployment rate as a proxy for macroeconomic conditions influences these prices. Our analysis draws on administrative data that provide detailed information on all nursing homes and ambulatory care services, as well as all recipients of long-term care benefits in Germany. For identification, we exploit variation in macroeconomic conditions - measured by district-level unemployment rates over time - using a panel data approach with facility and time fixed effects. Our empirical findings indicate that higher unemployment rates lead to increased prices for permanent long-term care, including accommodation and meal costs in nursing homes. We provide evidence for the mechanisms underlying these price effects. While we find no significant impact of macroeconomic conditions on employment, working hours, or quality of care in nursing homes, our results suggest that higher unemployment rates raise nursing home prices through changes in the composition of patients. Specifically, economic downturns trigger a shift from recipients with lower levels of impairment to those requiring more labor-intensive care. Additionally, we observe a substitution effect, whereby low-impairment patients increasingly opt for ambulatory and informal home care instead of institutional care. T3 - Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers - 80 Y1 - 2025 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59887 UR - https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5988 ET - No. 80 ER -