TY - THES A1 - Niemann, TIm T1 - Food Prices and Speculation: Does speculation on the agricultural markets influence prices and volatilities? N2 - Food prices in the last decade have seen both an increase in price levels and in price variability. In the same time period, speculative activity in the agricultural futures market has significantly increased. This thesis asks whether food price levels and volatilities are affected by speculation, and whether regulation can curb the potential effect. This thesis first investigates the welfare impacts of high and volatile prices. It does so because if the impact is limited, there would be a weak argument for introducing regulation. I find that producers benefit from high food prices, whereas consumers are hurt. Next to that, rural households gain relative to urban households. From a macroeconomic perspective, food importing countries have negative impacts on their balance of payments, inflation rates and fiscal breathing space. All these impacts are particularly pronounced in developing countries. This thesis finds that short -term volatilities can have long -term negative consequences for households. Moreover, food producers are less willing to invest in the agricultural system. On a macroeconomic level volatility increases uncertainty and reduces growth. The conclusion is that both high and volatile agricultural prices are welfare reducing. This thesis finds that there are fundamental supply and demand factors that have increased price levels and volatilities over the last decade. However, it also finds that there is a potential role for speculation in driving up agricultural prices. Speculation plays a more definitive role in increasing price volatilities. As high and volatile food prices are welfare reducing, and speculation has a role at least in one of these price developments, this thesis investigates policy options to limit the effect of speculation on food prices. It finds that a transaction tax and position limits are two regulatory options that are likely to curb the effects of speculation on food prices, while at the same time they do not create very large market distortions . T3 - Hertie School Student Paper Series - 08/2013 Y1 - 2016 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-20480 PB - Hertie School of Governance CY - Berlin ER -