TY - JOUR A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Müller, Klara A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Neunhoeffer, Marcel A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas T1 - The Zweitstimme Model: A Dynamic Forecast of the 2021 German Federal Election JF - PS: Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096521000913 VL - 55 IS - 1 SP - 85 EP - 90 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Selb, Peter T1 - Can we directly survey adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions? Evidence from a list experiment conducted in Germany during the early Corona pandemic. JF - Survey Research Methods N2 - Self-reports of adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions in surveys may be subject to social desirability bias. Existing questioning techniques to reduce bias are rarely used to monitor adherence. We conducted a list experiment to elicit truthful answers to the question whether respondents met friends or acquaintances and thus disregarded the social distancing norm. Our empirical findings are mixed. Using the list experiment, we estimate the prevalence of non-compliant behavior at 28%, whereas the estimate from a direct question is 22%. However, a more permissively phrased direct question included later in the survey yields an estimate of 47%. All three estimates vary consistently across social groups. Interestingly, only the list experiment reveals somewhat higher non-compliance rates among the highly educated compared to those with lower education, yet the variance of the list estimates is considerably higher. We conclude that the list experiment compared unfavorably to simpler direct measurements in our case. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7759 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 205 EP - 209 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Neunhoeffer, Marcel A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. T1 - Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen JF - Politische Vierteljahresschrift N2 - Almost half of the total seats in the German Bundestag are awarded through first-past-the post elections at the electoral-district level. However, many election forecasting models do not consider this. In this paper we present an approach to predicting the candidate-vote shares at the district level for the German Federal Elections. To that end, we combine the national-level election prediction model from zweitstimme.org with two district-level prediction models, a linear regression and an artificial neural network, that both use the same candidate and district characteristics for their predictions. All data in our approach are publicly available prior to the respective election; thus, our model yields real forecasts. The model is therefore able to provide valuable information to running candidates and the interested public in future elections. Moreover, our prediction results are also relevant for substantive research: with the aid of the resulting odds of winning, better measures can be created to characterize the competitiveness of an electoral district and the expected closeness of electoral-district elections, which can influence political behaviour. Furthermore, the prediction allows empirical statements to be made about the expected size of the Bundestag as well as the composition of its personnel. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-019-00216-3 VL - 61 SP - 111 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Amann, Markus A1 - Arnell, Nigel A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Beagley, Jessica A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Boykoff, Maxwell A1 - Byass, Peter A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Capstick, Stuart A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Coleman, Samantha A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Daly, Meaghan A1 - Dasandi, Niheer T1 - The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises JF - The Lancet N2 - The world has already warmed by more than 1.2C compared with preindustrial levels, resulting in profound, immediate, and rapidly worsening health effects, and moving dangerously close to the agreed limit of maintaining temperatures “well below 2C”. These health impacts are seen on every continent, with the ongoing spread of dengue virus across South America, the cardiovascular and respiratory effects of record heatwaves and wildfires in Australia, western North America, and western Europe, and the undernutrition and mental health effects of floods and droughts in China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and South Africa. In the long term, climate change threatens the very foundations of human health and wellbeing, with the Global Risks Report registering climate change as one of the five most damaging or probable global risks every year for the past decade. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X VL - 397 IS - 10269 SP - 129 EP - 170 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Erfort, Cornelius A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Koch, Elias A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Rajski, Hannah T1 - The Zweitstimme Forecast for the German Federal Election 2025: Coalition Majorities and Vacant Districts JF - PS: Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096525000150 SN - 1049-0965 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Cambridge University Press (CUP) ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Ramirez-Ruiz, Sebastian A1 - Çalı, Başak A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Lowe, Will T1 - Prioritization preferences for COVID-19 vaccination are consistent across five countries JF - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications N2 - Vaccination against COVID-19 is making progress globally, but vaccine doses remain a rare commodity in many parts of the world. New virus variants require vaccines to be updated, hampering the availability of effective vaccines. Policymakers have defined criteria to regulate who gets priority access to the vaccination, such as age, health complications, or those who hold system-relevant jobs. But how does the public think about vaccine allocation? To explore those preferences, we surveyed respondents in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States from September to December of 2020 using ranking and forced-choice tasks. We find that public preferences are consistent with expert guidelines prioritizing health-care workers and people with medical preconditions. However, the public also considers those signing up early for vaccination and citizens of the country to be more deserving than later-comers and non-citizens. These results hold across measures, countries, and socio-demographic subgroups. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01392-1 VL - 9 IS - 439 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Ramirez-Ruiz, Sebastian A1 - Barberá, Pablo A1 - Guess, Andrew M. A1 - Yang, JungHwan T1 - Who’s cheating on your survey? A detection approach with digital trace data JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - In this note, we provide direct evidence of cheating in online assessments of political knowledge. We combine survey responses with web tracking data of a German and a US online panel to assess whether people turn to external sources for answers. We observe item-level prevalence rates of cheating that range from 0 to 12 percent depending on question type and difficulty, and find that 23 percent of respondents engage in cheating at least once across waves. In the US panel, which employed a commitment pledge, we observe cheating behavior among less than 1 percent of respondents. We find robust respondent- and item-level characteristics associated with cheating. However, item-level instances of cheating are rare events; as such, they are difficult to predict and correct for without tracking data. Even so, our analyses comparing naive and cheating-corrected measures of political knowledge provide evidence that cheating does not substantially distort inferences. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.42 SP - 1 EP - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Ramirez-Ruiz, Sebastian T1 - Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Voting Advice Applications JF - Political Communication N2 - We review the influence of voting advice applications (VAAs) on three core outcomes: turnout, vote choice, and issue knowledge. In a meta-analysis of 55 effects reported in 22 studies, comprising 73,673 participants in 9 countries, we find strong evidence for positive effects of VAA usage on reported turnout (OR = 1.87; 95% CI = [1.50, 2.33]) and vote choice (OR = 1.44; 95% CI = [1.16, 1.78]) as well as modest evidence on knowledge increase (partial correlation = 0.09; 95% CI = [−0.01, 0.18]). At the same time, we observe large heterogeneity in effect sizes, for which study design turns out to be a key driver. Effects are substantively weaker in causally more rigorous experimental studies. We highlight the need for more well-powered experimental research as well as studies focusing on the acquisition of knowledge in VAA usage. KW - Meta-analysis KW - VAA KW - voting advice application Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1843572 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Papoutsi, Myrto A1 - Nowak, Holger T1 - Nutzung von digitalen Tools zur Unterstützung von COVID-19-Kontaktverfolgung BT - Wie populär sind Corona-Warn-App und Luca-App in der dritten Pandemiewelle? N2 - In der dritten Welle der Corona-Pandemie kann der Corona-Warn-App zur Unterstützung der COVID-19-Kontaktnachverfolgung eine wichtige Rolle zukommen, um Übertragungen der Krankheit einzudämmen. Darüber hinaus wird zunehmend über den Einsatz von Check-in-Apps diskutiert, die die Registrierung von Besuchen bestimmter Orte mittels QR-Codes ermöglichen. Für die Effektivität dieser Technologien ist jedoch die breitflächige Nutzung in der Bevölkerung entscheidend. In unserer Erhebung zeigen sich deutliche Unterschiede in der Nutzung der beiden bekanntesten Apps – Corona-Warn-App und Luca-App. Gleichzeitig wird sichtbar, in welchen Teilen der Bevölkerung die Nutzung noch ausgebaut werden könnte. Ein Großteil der Nicht-Nutzer zweifelt nach wie vor an der Effektivität der Apps, hat Datenschutzbedenken oder fühlt sich über die Lösungen nicht gut genug informiert. Die Ergebnisse basieren auf einer Befragung und Smartphone-basiertem Nutzertracking, die zwischen dem 24. März. und 6. April 2021 durchgeführt wurde. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-38304 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-3830 ET - Studienbericht - 22. April 2021 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Selb, Peter A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Lowe, Will T1 - Tracking and Promoting Usage of a COVID-19 Contact Tracing App. JF - Nature Human Behavior N2 - Digital contact tracing apps have been introduced globally as an instrument to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, privacy by design impedes both the evaluation of these tools and the deployment of evidence-based interventions to stimulate uptake. We combine an online panel survey with mobile tracking data to measure the actual usage of Germany’s official contact tracing app and reveal higher uptake rates among respondents with an increased risk of severe illness, but lower rates among those with a heightened risk of exposure to COVID-19. Using a randomized intervention, we show that informative and motivational video messages have very limited effect on uptake. However, findings from a second intervention suggest that even small monetary incentives can strongly increase uptake and help make digital contact tracing a more effective tool. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/2397-3374 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-01044-x IS - 5 SP - 247 EP - 255 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Helbling, Marc A1 - Maxwell, Rahsaan A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Traunmüller, Richard T1 - The importance of citizenship for deserving COVID-19 treatment JF - Humanities and Social Sciences Communications N2 - Immigrant non-citizens are often considered less deserving than citizens of welfare and other public services. The logic is that valuable and scarce public resources must be limited somehow, and the club of citizens is one way of drawing a boundary. In this paper, we examine how far that boundary extends, by analyzing the extent to which Germans prioritize citizens over non-citizens for access to life-saving healthcare. We implement a conjoint experiment to elicit preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were collected between April 2020 and March 2021, in 23 waves of an online rolling crosssectional survey with roughly 17,000 respondents. Our main finding is that citizens are viewed as more deserving of healthcare than non-citizen immigrants, a relationship that is sizeable and robust. Our findings have implications for debates about social boundaries and how to allocate resources in Western Europe. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01311-4 VL - 9 IS - 302 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romanello, Marina A1 - Di Napoli, Claudia A1 - Drummond, Paul A1 - Green, Carole A1 - Kennard, Harry A1 - Lampard, Pete A1 - Scamman, Daniel A1 - Arnell, Nigel A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Berrang Ford, Lea A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Bowen, Kathryn A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Daalen, Kim R van A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Dasandi, Niheer A1 - Dasgupta, Shouro A1 - Davies, Michael A1 - Dominguez-Salas, Paula A1 - Dubrow, Robert A1 - Ebi, Kristie L A1 - Eckelman, Matthew A1 - Ekins, Paul A1 - Escobar, Luis E A1 - Georgeson, Lucien A1 - Graham, Hilary A1 - Gunther, Samuel H A1 - Hamilton, Ian A1 - Hang, Yun A1 - Hänninen, Risto A1 - Hartinger, Stella A1 - He, Kehan A1 - Hess, Jeremy J A1 - Hsu, Shih-Che A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Jamart, Louis A1 - Jay, Ollie A1 - Kelman, Ilan A1 - Kiesewetter, Gregor A1 - Kinney, Patrick A1 - Kjellstrom, Tord A1 - Kniveton, Dominic A1 - Lee, Jason K W A1 - Lemke, Bruno A1 - Liu, Zhao A1 - Lott, Melissa A1 - Lotto Batista, Martin A1 - Lowe, Rachel A1 - MacGuire, Frances A1 - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo A1 - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime A1 - Maslin, Mark A1 - McAllister, Lucy A1 - McGushin, Alice A1 - McMichael, Celia A1 - Mi, Zhifu A1 - Milner, James A1 - Minor, Kelton A1 - Minx, Jan C A1 - Mohajeri, Nahid A1 - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar A1 - Morrissey, Karyn A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Murray, Kris A A1 - Neville, Tara A1 - Nilsson, Maria A1 - Obradovich, Nick A1 - O'Hare, Megan B A1 - Oreszczyn, Tadj A1 - Otto, Matthias A1 - Owfi, Fereidoon A1 - Pearman, Olivia A1 - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz A1 - Robinson, Elizabeth J Z A1 - Rocklöv, Joacim A1 - Salas, Renee N A1 - Semenza, Jan C A1 - Sherman, Jodi D A1 - Shi, Liuhua A1 - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy A1 - Silbert, Grant A1 - Sofiev, Mikhail A1 - Springmann, Marco A1 - Stowell, Jennifer A1 - Tabatabaei, Meisam A1 - Taylor, Jonathon A1 - Triñanes, Joaquin A1 - Wagner, Fabian A1 - Wilkinson, Paul A1 - Winning, Matthew A1 - Yglesias-González, Marisol A1 - Zhang, Shihui A1 - Gong, Peng A1 - Montgomery, Hugh A1 - Costello, Anthony T1 - The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9 VL - 400 IS - 10363 SP - 1619 EP - 1654 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Lowe, Will A1 - Çalı, Başak A1 - Gohdes, Anita R. A1 - Helbling, Marc A1 - Maxwell, Rahsaan A1 - Traunmüller, Richard T1 - Affective partisan polarization and moral dilemmas during the COVID-19 pandemic JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - Recent scholarship on affective polarization documents partisan animosity in people's everyday lives. But does partisan dislike go so far as to deny fundamental rights? We study this question through a moral dilemma that gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic: triage decisions on the allocation of intensive medical care. Using a conjoint experiment in five countries we analyze the influence of patients’ partisanship next to commonly discussed factors determining access to intensive medical care. We find that while participants’ choices are consistent with a utilitarian heuristic, revealed partisanship influences decisions across most countries. Supporters of left or right political camps are more likely to withhold support from partisan opponents. Our findings offer comparative evidence on affective polarization in non-political contexts. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.13 SP - 1 EP - 8 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Darius, Philipp A1 - Stockmann, Daniela A1 - Bryson, Joanna A1 - Cingolani, Luciana A1 - Griffin, Rachel A1 - Hammerschmid, Gerhard A1 - Kupi, Maximilian A1 - Mones, Haytham A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Riordan, Rónán A1 - Stockreiter, Simona T1 - Implementing Data Access of the Digital Services Act: Collaboration of European Digital Service Coordinators and Researchers in Building Strong Oversight over Social Media Platforms N2 - The EU Digital Service Acts signals a move away from self-regulation towards co-regulation of social media platforms within the European Union. To address online harms and rising platform power the DSA clarifies responsibilities of platforms and outlines a new technology regulatory framework to increase oversight. One key oversight instrument constitutes Article 40 of the DSA, which lays out data access for vetted researchers, who add value to regulators and the broader public as creators of knowledge, educators, advisors, innovators, and watchdogs. Currently, the EU Commission and national governments make important decisions regarding Digital Service Coordinators (DSCs) that play a key role in implementation. Based on expertise on European public administration and political science we lay out key challenges and success factors of DSCs that will play a role in promoting successful cooperation between DSCs and researchers. We provide three recommendations: First, we recommend to strengthen transfer of scientific knowledge into policy-making by processing publicly accessible publications within public administrative bodies. To this end, capacities of DSCs need to be increased. In addition, we also point towards the database of vetted researchers collected by the Board of DSCs as important resource in order to strengthen knowledge transfer. Second, the DSC network requires agile institutions with fast response time in order to enable researchers to play a constructive role in implementation. This also includes institutional procedures between DSCs and the Intermediary Body and Data Protection Agencies. To avoid delay in implementation agile institution-building needs to start now. Finally, institutional safeguards will help to avoid strategic choice of companies of the DSC of establishment. At the same time, the Irish DSC's capacity should be strengthened compared to other national DSCs since most large intermediary services providers have their European headquarters in Ireland. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-49479 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-4947 ER -