TY - RPRT A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Papoutsi, Myrto A1 - Nowak, Holger T1 - Ein Jahr digitale Kontaktpersonennachverfolgung mit der Corona-Warn-App BT - Nutzung – Popularität – Verständnis N2 - Nachdem es zwischenzeitlich ruhig um die Corona-Warn-App geworden war, nahm die Diskussion um digitale Kontaktpersonennachverfolgung im Frühjahr 2021 wieder Fahrt auf. Die Corona-Warn-App wurde mit lange erwarteten Zusatzfeatures zur Eventregistrierung und Erfassung von Schnelltestergebnissen ausgestattet, während die Luca-App aufgrund von Sicherheitslücken und Datenschutzmängeln zunehmend in die Kritik geriet. In unserem Bericht dokumentieren wir, wie populär diese Apps mittlerweile in der deutschen Bevölkerung sind. Nach wie vor gilt: Für die Wirksamkeit dieser Technologien ist die breitflächige Nutzung in der Bevölkerung entscheidend. In unserer Erhebung, einem Smartphone-basierten Nutzertracking, das zwischen dem 19. Mai und 01. Juni 2021 durchgeführt wurde, zeigt sich nach wie vor deutliche Unterschiede in der Nutzung der beiden bekanntesten Apps – Corona-Warn-App und Luca-App. Im Vergleich zur vorherigen Befragung (März/April 2021) sind jedoch einige Verschiebungen beobachtbar: Die Luca-App ist bekannter geworden, gleichzeitig steigt die Sorge um den Datenschutz der App allenfalls leicht an. Bei vielen Befragten besteht nach wie vor große Unklarheit über die Unterschiede in Funktionsweise und Zweck dieser Apps. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-39994 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-3999 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - BarberÁ, Pablo A1 - Guess, Andrew M. A1 - Yang, JungHwan T1 - Do Online Voter Guides Empower Citizens? Evidence from a Field Experiment with Digital Trace Data JF - Public Opinion Quarterly N2 - Voting Advice Applications (VAAs), which provide citizens with information on the party that best represents their political preferences, are often cited as evidence of the empowering capabilities of digital tools. Aside from the informational benefits of these voter guides, observational studies have suggested a strong effect on political participation and vote choice. However, existing impact evaluations have been limited by a reliance on convenience samples, lack of random assignment, or both. This raises questions about self-selection and the precise mechanisms underlying how voters learn about politics. Here, we provide evidence from a field experiment with survey outcomes conducted with a sample of over 1,000 German citizens in the 2017 federal election campaign. Using linked panel survey and digital trace data combined with a randomized encouragement to complete a VAA, we assess respondents’ compliance with treatment and observe how the use of this tool affects political behavior, attitudes, media consumption, political knowledge, and even social media activity. Our findings reveal that the overwhelming consensus in favor of positive effects on turnout and vote choice should be treated with caution, as we find no such effects. Rather, the actual virtue of VAAs in a complex online information environment lies in increasing knowledge about parties’ positions on issues—exactly the kind of information these tools were designed to provide. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfaa037 VL - 84 IS - 3 SP - 675 EP - 698 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Amann, Markus T1 - The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises JF - The Lancet Y1 - 2021 VL - 397 IS - 10269 SP - 129 EP - 170 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guess, Andrew M. A1 - Barberá, Pablo A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Yang, JungHwan ED - Bail, Christopher Andrew T1 - The consequences of online partisan media JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences N2 - What role do ideologically extreme media play in the polarization of society? Here we report results from a randomized longitudinal field experiment embedded in a nationally representative online panel survey (N = 1,037) in which participants were incentivized to change their browser default settings and social media following patterns, boosting the likelihood of encountering news with either a left-leaning (HuffPost) or right-leaning (Fox News) slant during the 2018 US midterm election campaign. Data on ≈ 19 million web visits by respondents indicate that resulting changes in news consumption persisted for at least 8 wk. Greater exposure to partisan news can cause immediate but short-lived increases in website visits and knowledge of recent events. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, however, we find little evidence of a direct impact on opinions or affect. Still, results from later survey waves suggest that both treatments produce a lasting and meaningful decrease in trust in the mainstream media up to 1 y later. Consistent with the minimal-effects tradition, direct consequences of online partisan media are limited, although our findings raise questions about the possibility of subtle, cumulative dynamics. The combination of experimentation and computational social science techniques illustrates a powerful approach for studying the long-term consequences of exposure to partisan news. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013464118 VL - 118 IS - 14 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Göbel, Sascha A1 - Munzert, Simon T1 - The Comparative Legislators Database T2 - SocArXiv Papers N2 - Knowledge about political representatives' behavior is crucial for a deeper understanding of politics and policy-making processes. Yet resources on legislative elites are scattered, often specialized, limited in scope or not always accessible. This article introduces the Comparative Legislators Database (CLD), which joins micro-data collection efforts on open-collaboration platforms and other sources, and integrates with renowned political science datasets. The CLD includes political, sociodemographic, career, online presence, public attention, and visual information for over 45,000 contemporary and historical politicians from ten countries. The authors provide a straightforward and open-source interface to the database through an R package, offering targeted, fast and analysis-ready access in formats familiar to social scientists and standardized across time and space. The data is verified against human-coded datasets, and its use for investigating legislator prominence and turnover is illustrated. The CLD contributes to a central hub for versatile information about legislators and their behavior, supporting individual-level comparative research over long periods. KW - comparative KW - Crowdsourcing KW - dataset Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/kapfq ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - et al., T1 - The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future JF - The Lancet N2 - The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration that independently monitors the health consequences of a changing climate. Publishing updated, new, and improved indicators each year, the Lancet Countdown represents the consensus of leading researchers from 43 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators of this report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change and the current health consequences of the delayed and inconsistent response of countries around the globe—providing a clear imperative for accelerated action that puts the health of people and planet above all else. The 2021 report coincides with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26), at which countries are facing pressure to realise the ambition of the Paris Agreement to keep the global average temperature rise to 1·5°C and to mobilise the financial resources required for all countries to have an effective climate response. These negotiations unfold in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic—a global health crisis that has claimed millions of lives, affected livelihoods and communities around the globe, and exposed deep fissures and inequities in the world’s capacity to cope with, and respond to, health emergencies. Yet, in its response to both crises, the world is faced with an unprecedented opportunity to ensure a healthy future for all. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01787-6 SP - 1619 EP - 1662 ET - 10311 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Müller, Klara A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Neunhoeffer, Marcel A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas T1 - The Zweitstimme Model: A Dynamic Forecast of the 2021 German Federal Election JF - PS: Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096521000913 VL - 55 IS - 1 SP - 85 EP - 90 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Selb, Peter T1 - Can we directly survey adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions? Evidence from a list experiment conducted in Germany during the early Corona pandemic. JF - Survey Research Methods N2 - Self-reports of adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions in surveys may be subject to social desirability bias. Existing questioning techniques to reduce bias are rarely used to monitor adherence. We conducted a list experiment to elicit truthful answers to the question whether respondents met friends or acquaintances and thus disregarded the social distancing norm. Our empirical findings are mixed. Using the list experiment, we estimate the prevalence of non-compliant behavior at 28%, whereas the estimate from a direct question is 22%. However, a more permissively phrased direct question included later in the survey yields an estimate of 47%. All three estimates vary consistently across social groups. Interestingly, only the list experiment reveals somewhat higher non-compliance rates among the highly educated compared to those with lower education, yet the variance of the list estimates is considerably higher. We conclude that the list experiment compared unfavorably to simpler direct measurements in our case. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18148/srm/2020.v14i2.7759 VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 205 EP - 209 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Neunhoeffer, Marcel A1 - Gschwend, Thomas A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. T1 - Ein Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile bei Bundestagswahlen JF - Politische Vierteljahresschrift N2 - Almost half of the total seats in the German Bundestag are awarded through first-past-the post elections at the electoral-district level. However, many election forecasting models do not consider this. In this paper we present an approach to predicting the candidate-vote shares at the district level for the German Federal Elections. To that end, we combine the national-level election prediction model from zweitstimme.org with two district-level prediction models, a linear regression and an artificial neural network, that both use the same candidate and district characteristics for their predictions. All data in our approach are publicly available prior to the respective election; thus, our model yields real forecasts. The model is therefore able to provide valuable information to running candidates and the interested public in future elections. Moreover, our prediction results are also relevant for substantive research: with the aid of the resulting odds of winning, better measures can be created to characterize the competitiveness of an electoral district and the expected closeness of electoral-district elections, which can influence political behaviour. Furthermore, the prediction allows empirical statements to be made about the expected size of the Bundestag as well as the composition of its personnel. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-019-00216-3 VL - 61 SP - 111 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Watts, Nick A1 - Jankin, Slava A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Amann, Markus A1 - Arnell, Nigel A1 - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja A1 - Beagley, Jessica A1 - Belesova, Kristine A1 - Boykoff, Maxwell A1 - Byass, Peter A1 - Cai, Wenjia A1 - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid A1 - Capstick, Stuart A1 - Chambers, Jonathan A1 - Coleman, Samantha A1 - Dalin, Carole A1 - Daly, Meaghan A1 - Dasandi, Niheer T1 - The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises JF - The Lancet N2 - The world has already warmed by more than 1.2C compared with preindustrial levels, resulting in profound, immediate, and rapidly worsening health effects, and moving dangerously close to the agreed limit of maintaining temperatures “well below 2C”. These health impacts are seen on every continent, with the ongoing spread of dengue virus across South America, the cardiovascular and respiratory effects of record heatwaves and wildfires in Australia, western North America, and western Europe, and the undernutrition and mental health effects of floods and droughts in China, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and South Africa. In the long term, climate change threatens the very foundations of human health and wellbeing, with the Global Risks Report registering climate change as one of the five most damaging or probable global risks every year for the past decade. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32290-X VL - 397 IS - 10269 SP - 129 EP - 170 ER -