TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Lang, Markus A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index II: Initial results, 2000–2019 JF - Global Policy N2 - This article presents an overview of some of the main findings from our analysis of the Berggruen Governance Index for the 2000–2019 period. It first examines overall governance performance across world regions, singles out general trends and identifies top and bottom performers. It then briefly reviews the comparative governance performance of world powers like the United States, Brazil, China, major European countries, India and Russia as well as other selected countries in the post-Soviet space. Finally, we address more analytic questions to show the versatility of the index for hypothesis testing and theoretical purposes. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13277 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 16 EP - 34 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - List, Regina A. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Advancing governance indicator systems: Lessons learned from the 2022 symposium JF - Global Policy N2 - The Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) is a new and innovative entry into the crowded domain of quantitative governance research. In its effort to contribute to the field, the BGI builds off of and acts in dialogue with several other governance indicator projects from across the globe. As part of a collaborative outlook, the BGI convened the first of three symposia at the UCLA Luskin School in October 2022, titled ‘Advancing Governance Indicator Systems: The 2022 Conference’. The event invited representatives from other indicator projects to share their thoughts on the BGI, present their own projects and discuss avenues for further research and development of ‘planetary’ indicators. This article discusses the highlights and key contributions from the conference. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13284 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 136 EP - 146 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Lang, Markus A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index I: Conceptual and methodological framework JF - Global Policy N2 - Governance is at the heart of how well governments meet public needs and manage a wide array of common problems. Why do some countries perform poorly in delivering healthcare, reducing inequality, providing a clean environment or delivering some other public good to their populations even while they have the resources to do so? Does the capacity of states to provide the basics for societies to thrive depend on forms of democratic accountability that represents different interests, or are systems under technocratic control that impose solutions and disregard, even suppress, many voices better at meeting public needs? Existing indices do not systematically examine the relationship between the components that contribute to governance performance. In our understanding of governance, depicted as the Governance Triangle, public goods provision is a function of state capacity and accountability. Rather than focusing on a single composite performance measure, the Berggruen Governance Index examines the interactions among these dimensions. We find that the key to good governance is achieving a balance among the three dimensions on an upward and sustainable trajectory. This article introduces the Index and the conceptual and methodological framework that underpins it and then outlines the content of this special issue. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13278 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 5 EP - 15 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - A falling star? Origins of declining state capacity and democratic accountability in the United States JF - Global Policy N2 - AbstractThe United States—often hailed as the ‘oldest democracy in the world’ and the ‘leader of the free world’—has fallen on hard times. In addition to recent headline‐grabbing political events that have highlighted its political dysfunction, data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) reveal that overall state capacity and democratic accountability have been declining for years. Although public goods provision has remained on a steady course, the US still trails much of the developed world. We find this struggling performance is largely the result of neglecting three types of infrastructure: civic, physical and social. Specifically, we argue that the crisis became particularly pronounced due to an insufficient response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Although some recent political achievements could slow the decline, more drastic action will be required to reverse these troubling trends. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13282 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 47 EP - 57 PB - Wiley ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Escape from the ‘lost decades?’ Governance challenges in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela JF - Global Policy N2 - Much of Latin America has experienced a renewed ‘lost decade’, failing to substantially expand quality of life since the late 2000s. While the outcomes of governance performance across the largest countries – including Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina – have discrete causes, common themes like internal conflict, corruption, and overreliance on natural resources plague the entire region. Put more generally, the inability to turn democratic accountability into a state mechanism able to deliver economic growth and public goods in a sustainable manner is a liability affecting all five countries. To explore the difficulties that the large Latin American countries have faced in the twenty‐first century, this article examines results from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, and then presents three key issues facing the region: insufficient state capacity, flirtations with authoritarianism, and economic inequality and inflation. While the challenges remain substantial, increased regional integration may offer one way out of the predicament. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13279 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 113 EP - 123 PB - Wiley ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000 JF - Global Policy N2 - At the beginning of the twenty‐first century, the large democracies of Western Europe experienced some of the most prosperous and peaceful decades in human history. Specifically, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany experienced high and stable quality of life, democratic accountability and state capacity between 2000 and 2019, according to the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index. While all four of these countries are among the top performers in the Index, substantial problems lurk beneath the surface. Notably, each failed to capitalise on the low interest rate environment in the decade following the global financial crisis of 2007–2009—albeit in different ways and for different reasons in each country. In particular, low investment in infrastructure and key technologies, the persistence of stubborn regional inequalities, and resulting sluggish GDP growth have prevented the ‘Big Four’ in Western Europe from improving further and future‐proofing their existing gains. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13271 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 90 EP - 103 PB - Wiley ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Todd-Tombini, Sofia T1 - The New Nationalisms and the Future of Cultural Relations: External Cultural Policy in an Age of Political Extremes N2 - This paper explores the impact of rising nationalism on soft power by analysing the external cultural policies (ECP) of eight countries: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey. It argues that ECP will increasingly operate in a zero-sum international environment shaped by nationalism, with its domestic effects varying across nations. While institutions in France are more exposed to nationalist influence, the ‘arm’s length’ principle offers greater protection in the UK and Germany, and the diversity of private actors serves as a protective buffer in the United States. Nationalistic ECP in China, Russia, and Turkey is anticipated to grow, while Poland exemplifies institutional resistance to nationalism. The paper then proceeds into a case study of the current discourse in Germany, contrasting the views of different nationalist parties about German ECP. Finally, recommendations are proposed for countries like Germany and other European nations: support the arm’s-length principle of key institutions; enhance coordination among ECP actors domestically and within the EU; shield against malign foreign influence; create and communicate anti-nationalist narratives; proactively leveraging existing strengths and opportunities. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17901/1493 PB - ifa (Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen e.V.) CY - Stuttgart ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandal: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election N2 - This report evaluates the governance performance of the United Kingdom ahead of the 2024 election, focusing on the interplay between fiscal austerity, economic stagnation, and public scandal. Despite a high initial governance performance in terms of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, recent years have seen a notable decline in state capacity due to austerity measures and political scandals. These have eroded public trust and highlighted the need for structural reforms. Key recommendations include enhancing investment in public services, improving regional economic policies, and addressing the UK's growing fiscal challenges to restore trust and ensure long-term growth. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://policycommons.net/artifacts/13389711/uk_election/14287485/ PB - Berggruen Governance Project CY - United States of America ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandals: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election N2 - As the United Kingdom heads to the polls on July 4th, 2024, the country faces several interlocking crises. Post-2010 austerity measures and the decision to leave the EU have left long-term scars on the United Kingdom´s economy, leading to an economic drift away from other wealthy countries. Changes in key indicators such a productivity and regional inequality highlight this trend. While its governance performance has been among the highest worldwide – in terms of democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of government) and public goods provision (quality of life) – there are signs of stagnation and erosion, particular in state capacity. Since the latter is a major mediating factor in democracy’s ability to produce public goods, there is an urgent need for structural change if the country is to avoid succumbing to even more severe problems impacting its future quality of life. However, any reform effort must weigh the pressing need for public investments with the country´s growing indebtedness. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - The 2024 Berggruen Governance Index – Democracy Challenged N2 - THE BERGGRUEN GOVERNANCE INDEX PROJECT (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, the Hertie School, and the Berggruen Institute. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - ‘Lucky’ or Lacking? Economic Development and Political Institutions in Australia T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - Ahead of an important federal election on May 3rd, Australia boasts some of the world’s most sophisticated political institutions and a wealthy economy. But does this veneer of success mask deeper structural issues? This report finds that, despite strong measures of GDP per capita and state capacity, Australia has long struggled to move its economy past a reliance on commodity exports—notably to China. At the same time, its democratic innovations such as compulsory electoral participation, early adoption of women’s suffrage, and preferential voting conceal a darker history of indigenous dispossession and racial discrimination. To move past these problems, Australia will have to leverage its impressive state capacity and strong educational system to develop a more advanced services sector and foster more complex manufacturing. Given the necessity of innovation clusters in its already-productive cities, this will also require addressing the severe housing crisis in state capitals and encouraging more migration and acceptance of minorities. Only with a more complex economy can Australia ensure future growth and reduce vulnerability to foreign powers like China and the US. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/m0ngzapoaa18cb9gppv2jbiybvp4jgvv PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Canada 2025: Governance Challenges Between Resource Reliance and Geopolitical Vulnerability T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - Although it is wealthy by global standards, Canada’s economy faces key vulnerabilities such as excessive reliance on extractive industries, shortages of critical goods such as housing, and heavy dependence on exports to the US. For many years, the country has failed to address these systemic problems. Despite scoring highly on most measures of the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), its performance has been uneven over the last decade. Indeed, while Canada is generally ahead of the United States in terms of governance performance, its scores for state capacity and democratic accountability trail those of many Western European peers. This parallels a broader disillusionment with Canada’s institutions, as public trust in government steadily declined during the 2010s. Addressing systemic challenges will require strident and courageous measures that aim to improve economic diversification and tackle regional inequality. Will the Liberal Party, which has neglected needed reforms for too long—and is now favored to win the elections in April—finally be up to the task? KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/5ospdh0cc7lcqg4uyh3shk90hqrx47od PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Progress and Polarization in South Korea: Remarkable Economic Ascent Masks Lingering Fractures T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - On December 3rd, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol imposed martial law in what appeared to be an attempted coup, threatening the country’s hard-fought democracy. Although the attempt was unsuccessful and consequentially led to Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal from office, it exposed lingering challenges in a country that has been one of the century’s great democratic success stories. Using insights from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index, we discuss South Korea’s remarkable success and trajectory, and the underlying fragilities in the country that pose threats to democratic stability and governance. Indeed, South Korea has made a remarkable transition from being a war-torn, impoverished, and autocratic nation to one of economic growth and impressive democratization. We find that South Korea consistently ranks very high in democratic accountability, public goods provision, and state capacity. Yet, emerging and ongoing challenges polarize the country. South Korea is in a precarious geopolitical situation with its rival neighbor North Korea, and continues to encounter issues such as gender polarization, economic inequality, and overwork. Moving forward, South Korea must grapple with these societal divisions and the legacy from its authoritarian past. Yet, it has one of the most highly educated societies in the world, a civically engaged population that will be key to protecting the remarkable democracy and economic success that it has already achieved. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/3fj98wa8p9yptz0cerf2ssdfb8hohipt PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Germany 2025: The Slow Decline in Governance Performance Erupts Into Crisis of Government as Geopolitics Worsen N2 - This report examines the decline of Germany’s economic and political stability over the past decade, emphasizing how structural challenges have eroded the country’s once-sterling reputation for success and good governance. Although Germany was lauded throughout the 2010s for its robust economy and political cohesion under Chancellor Angela Merkel, recent developments—including a stagnating export sector, rising inequality, and political fragmentation—have sparked growing concerns. Drawing on data from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), the report shows that Germany’s scores in democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, while still high by global standards, have gradually but consistently deteriorated since 2011. Building on these findings, the paper identifies four core drivers of this decline: inadequate investment in infrastructure, backlash against migration, foreign policy vulnerabilities, and the broader impact of the recent economic downturn. The report then connects these developments to the upcoming February 2025 elections, examining how Germany’s governance and political-economic trends are likely to influence electoral behavior and shape the policy choices available to a likely CDU-led government. Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/214e7tn60c0z2z4h549fvvwsq26tnubq PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Balancing Progress and Democracy: Mexico’s Governance Under Sheinbaum T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - With the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s first female president on June 2, 2024, the country entered another six-year term under the leadership of the left-wing Morena Party. The previous president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), also of Morena, ruled from 2018 to 2024. This remarkable electoral outcome raises important questions about longer-term trends in Mexican governance and invites comparisons with neighboring countries. Using insights from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), we can look deeper at Mexico’s trajectory. We find that, since 2000, Mexico has struggled to catch up with more developed nations like the U.S or Canada in the governance measures but still outpaces many other Latin American countries. The Morena administrations have embarked on ambitious programs of state building and economic nationalism, but these efforts have been criticized for contributing to democratic backsliding, particularly in the conservative U.S. press. Still, Mexico has achieved a solid degree of economic success, rebounding rapidly after the pandemic and GDP per capita increasing by over 50% since AMLO took over in 2018. Much of this growth has been driven by traditionally poorer southern regions in the country. Despite some signs of success, one of Sheinbaum’s key dilemmas will be to balance a more expanded and effective reach of the state—both geographically and economically—without undermining democratic norms. Given resistance to changes like judicial reform, resource nationalization, and use of the military for state-building projects, this will be a difficult balance to strike. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/pikfz8a7vly1hjq9436gpm8eqf283bek PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Political Instability and Economic Development in the Sahel: Governance in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Sudan since 2000 N2 - The 2020s have been a troubled decade so far for many countries in the Sahel. Although a serious of coups and widespread political instability in the region have dominated headlines, findings from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) indicate this grim picture may be incomplete. Indeed, the BGI finds some notable improvements, especially in public good provision, where some of the Sahel countries profiled in this report are among the most improved worldwide since 2000. However, these improvements rest on shaky ground, as countries in the region have long been trapped by unsustainable economic policies that focus almost exclusively on exploiting the natural resources of the region. This can lead to a vicious cycle of economic and institutional underdevelopment and political dysfunction, as extractive industries lead to elite capture, and uneven and unsustainable growth patterns, with high levels of corruption and violence among those competing for resources, reliance on overseas development aid, and eventually vulnerabilities to geopolitical influence. To address these interlocking weaknesses, this report suggests a dual economic strategy to form the foundations for more resilient institutions: 1) making more productive use of natural resources by building up capacity for higher in-country value-added through domesticating production chains; and 2) building high-tech partnerships with more developed countries to manage climate change and build sustainable agriculture. Based on such economic gains, greater fiscal and administrative state capacities could then be leveraged to create more durable governance institutions, further enabling more resilient development. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Towards A New Global Contestation? Comparing the Governance Performance of G7 and BRICS+ Nations N2 - The expansion of the BRICS to the BRICS+ group of countries potentially reflects a major geopolitical shift. This change indicates the possibility of rising tensions with the Group of Seven (G7), a collection of wealthy liberal democracies. The growing importance of BRICS and BRICS+ countries raises important questions about how their governance performance compares to G7 countries in terms of providing public goods such as social security, health and environmental protection. The report explores these questions with the help of the Berggruen Governance Index, which measures the governance performance of countries using three major dimensions and their relationship between each other: democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of governance) and public goods provision (quality of life). In relation to the first question, the report finds that the G7 outperforms BRICS+ in all three governance dimensions. However, advances in the provision of public goods have been significant in some BRICS+ countries, even as state capacity and/or democratic accountability declined. This finding challenges the “autocratic fallacy,” which states that authoritarian governance cannot effectively scale public goods, and that broad-based prosperity is correlated with adherence to democratic principles. It would further challenge the notion that democracy and wellbeing are the common telos of how countries develop over time. At the same time, results indicate that, rather than seeking fuller confrontation with G7 countries, most BRICS+ members engage in a mix of cooperation and contestation to gauge opportunities while mitigating risks in uncertain geopolitical conditions. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Dominanz ohne Hegemonie? Der neue Wettstreit um das Soft-Power-Vakuum der USA N2 - Mit der Umsetzung des Strategiepapiers Project 25 hat die zweite Trump-Re-gierung viele zentrale Elemente der Soft Power der USA zerschlagen. Seither nimmt die Soft Power des Landes stetig ab und hinterlässt ein Vakuum im Zentrum der globalen Kulturdiplomatie. Gleichzeitig setzen die USA ihre be-trächtliche wirtschaftliche und militärische Kraft ein, um Verbündete wie Rivalen gleichermaßen unter Druck zu setzen, indem sie international einen zunehmend transaktionalen bilateralen Ansatz verfolgen – Dominanz ohne kulturelle Hegemonie. Im Zuge dieser Entwicklung sehen sich Europa – und insbesondere Deutschland – mit einer Reihe grundlegender Fragen in dieser veränderten geopolitischen und geoökonomischen Landschaft konfrontiert. Sie könnten die Außenkulturpolitik (ECP) nutzen, um universalistische libe-ral-demokratische Prinzipien voranzutreiben, und dazu eine zukunftsgerich-tete Vision mit einem eigenständiges Narrativ entwickeln, das mit der eigenen wirtschaftlichen Gesamtleistung und Lebensqualität, mit technologischen Errungenschaften und einem stabilen Militärbündnis zu untermauern wäre. Doch ein derartiges Vorgehen verlangt drastische Entscheidungen und einen politischen Willen, der den künftigen Herausforderungen gerecht wird. Wenn es Europa und Deutschland nicht gelingt, diese Bewährungsproben zu meistern, werden sie, als Mittelmächte, zunehmend zum Spielball der USA und Chinas. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17901/1588 PB - ifa (Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen e.V.) CY - Stuttgart ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Development over Democracy? Economic Growth and Political Repression in Bangladesh T2 - 2024 Berggruen Government Index N2 - This election brief examines the critical juncture facing Bangladesh as it approaches the February 12, 2026, general election and concurrent referendum on the “July Charter.” Following the 2024 ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent transition to an interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh seeks to reverse a two-decade trend of democratic backsliding and stagnant state capacity. Utilizing data from the Berggruen Governance Index, this analysis highlights a striking paradox: while democratic accountability and state capacity have significantly withered since 2000, public goods provision has reached record highs, driven by a highly concentrated, export-oriented textile model and growing public debt. The report evaluates the sustainability of this “authoritarian developmentalism” in a deteriorating international environment characterized by U.S. protectionism and regional instability. It concludes that while the proposed constitutional reforms offer a framework for long-term stability, Bangladesh’s path to reconciling economic growth with democratic liberty remains precarious, requiring a departure from historical East Asian developmental models to suit a more fragmented geopolitical reality. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2026 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/w00oniweqbgifmim9j6df13ruk6kj4yt PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Steadying the Democratic Ship — or Sinking it? Economic Stagnation and Political Dysfunction in Italy T2 - 2024 Berggruen Government Index N2 - The combination of a sclerotic economy and a volatile political climate has defined Italy for decades. With far-right leader Giorgia Meloni’s election as prime minister in September 2022, it remains to be seen whether the country can finally break this cycle. Although her government has overseen modest economic growth and relative political stability—and Meloni remains popular—her controversial constitutional reforms and the June 2025 referenda pose significant tests. Those votes, held alongside local elections, address both citizenship liberalization and stronger workers’ rights. While they will reveal public sentiment about the current government, neither can resolve Italy’s deeper, long-term problems. To do so, policymakers must tackle high regional disparities, extreme wealth and inheritance inequality, and persistently low productivity. Investments and reforms aimed at bringing Italy’s state capacity in line with its Western European peers are essential to address these structural issues. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/21tt4jr2hvdk0d0qd4ofk25ark9ht65z PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Right-wing Populism, the State, and Democracy: Governance Performance & the 2024 European Parliament Elections T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - Right-wing parties are expected to gain substantially in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Comparing the results of the Berggruen Governance Index with current electoral predictions shows that the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and Eurocrisis, in particular prolonged budget cuts and other austerity measures, have contributed to worsening state capacity and weakening democratic accountability in many European countries. This led to a growing sense of insecurity and build-up of grievances among those population groups most affected by austerity measures. Far-right parties opportunistically exploited these sentiments, especially by linking them to anxieties around migration. In this way, actual shortages in fields like housing—which are largely derived from underinvestment and austerity—are dubiously attributed to migrants. As a result, right-wing parties have been able to use this simplistic scapegoat in order to appeal to a wide range of resentments, which stem largely from a decaying institutional environment, rather than outside sources. What can be done to reverse these dynamics? Changes in governance performance tend to be slow moving, and corrective action may take some time to bear fruit. The analysis suggests that crisis-driven austerity policies must stop as they contribute to weaker institutions and increasing polarization in the medium to long term. The rise of the far right is thus the collective result of misguided policies by governments in power over the last decade or so. They now must correct them and prove that they can proactively anticipate as well as solve public problems such as social and regional inequalities. For this to happen, public sector reforms and strategic investments in state capacity and democratic resilience are urgently needed. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/5frux2if3tfhvmsahrf5nkyce50l333k PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Democratic distortions and a struggling state: The United States on the eve of the 2024 presidential election T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - During election season, most U.S. media coverage centers on a “horse race” analysis of public opinion and the latest polling. However, understanding the broader context of governance provides a more comprehensive view of the factors that shape the U.S. political landscape. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly shape domestic policies and influence the country’s role on the world stage, but it is crucial to recognize that the challenges facing its political system are structural and have developed over many years. In this spirit, this report discusses developments in U.S. governance since 2000, focusing on the metrics of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision from the Berggruen Governance Index. It finds that democratic accountability — particularly electoral accountability—and state capacity have experienced sharp declines since 2015, limiting the responsiveness and effectiveness of government. Although public goods have remained constant, this occurs in the context of rising public debt and at lower levels in comparison to other advanced democracies. Especially in swing states, there are sharp declines in democratic accountability, creating significant risks for the integrity of the U.S. election where it matters most. We conclude by speculating how different outcomes in the U.S. election might affect the future of U.S. governance across all three dimensions, projecting that a Harris victory would likely be more beneficial across all three categories. However, Harris will face severe challenges considering the structural constraints and deficiencies of the U.S. system. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/nai99giiia6o8eo2s4o3x1eg0yy81uky PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Tunisia’s Autocratic Resurgence: Political Reforms Without Economic Progress Threatens Democracy T2 - 2024 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - This report examines Tunisia’s recent democratic trajectory ahead of the October 2024 presidential elections. Following the 2010 Jasmine Revolution, findings from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) demonstrate dramatic improvements in democratic accountability and state capacity — followed by a rapid decline in the early 2020s. We suggest the reason for the non-durability of these gains may be due to Tunisia’s failure to achieve substantial economic growth or improvements in public goods provision. This economic stagnation undermined the democratic advancements, leading to political dysfunction and a regression into authoritarianism under President Kaïs Saïed. Using the Tunisian example of how economic progress contributed to rising political unrest in spite of greater democratic accountability, it then explores theoretical perspectives on why democracies at lower development levels may struggle economically, citing factors like immediate consumption pressures, policy uncertainty, and labor rights affecting foreign investment. The upcoming October 2024 elections are assessed, with a cautious outlook on their potential to reverse authoritarian trends. The report concludes by emphasizing the critical lesson from Tunisia’s experience: political reforms must be coupled with tangible economic improvements to ensure the consolidation and longevity of democratic governance. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/4d06cj45pb8ajh3a699f8psfcvdpd3zt PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - The Politics of Debt in Cameroon, Malawi, Ivory Coast, the Central African Republic, and Tanzania; the Politics of Debt T2 - 2024 Berggruen Government Index N2 - In 2025, Cameroon, Malawi, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, and the Central African Republic held (or will hold) national elections. Across these cases, electoral processes were marked by accusations of fraud, political repression, and in some instances violent crackdowns, underscoring persistent weaknesses in democratic accountability and overall governance challenges. These political dynamics unfold within a broader postcolonial context of poverty, limited sovereignty, and heavy reliance on external financing. Despite these constraints, all five countries have recorded notable improvements in public goods provision since 2000, according to the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI). Although this reflects gains in areas such as infrastructure and social services, these advances have coincided with stagnation or decline in state capacity and democratic institutions. Rising public debt—driven by multilateral and Chinese lending—has enabled short-term development but increasingly constrains fiscal and political space. The report argues that without substantial improvements in state capacity, these countries risk remaining trapped in a vicious cycle of debt, weak governance, and political instability. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/ylcjxxv22992583jau436ywcf0pd0584 PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Lang, Markus A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Toward a New Understanding of Governance: The 2022 Berggruen Governance Index N2 - THE BERGGRUEN GOVERNANCE INDEX PROJECT (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs and the Berggruen Institute. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Yang, Yuqing A1 - Fröhlich, Christian T1 - Geopolitics and Domestic Governance Performance: Four Global Powers in a Changing World Order N2 - What is the link between the domestic governance performance of global powers and their geopolitical positioning and potential? Using data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, this brief looks at the United States, China, Russia, and the EU5 (i.e., the five largest EU economies France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) in the context of four different future scenarios. It finds strikingly different trajectories for each global power, with distinct challenges and opportunities. Overall, the United States and the EU are more likely to maintain, even strengthen their relative geopolitical position, whereas China faces significant uncertainties due to domestic governance problems. Russia, suffering from low state capacities and unable to serve its predatory elites, is likely to enter a period of decline and loss of status. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Economic Progress or Democratic Distress? Indonesia’s Governance Challenges T2 - 2024 Berggruen Government Index N2 - As the world’s third-largest democracy, with the largest Muslim population, and consisting of over 17,000 islands, Indonesia faces complex governance challenges. As indicated by the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index, the country reveals a decline in democratic accountability and stagnant state capacity, while its public goods provision has improved thanks to revenue from its extractive industries. Despite having experienced high economic growth in recent years, high levels of inequality linger, and significant regional discrepancies in living standards persist. Politically, authoritarian tendencies under President Prabowo Subianto threaten the fragile democratic gains of previous decades. To address this, Indonesia will have to continue its mostly successful economic policies while seeking to distribute gains more equitably and increase regional convergence through investments and decentralization. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/ct8sff4xe5mjqsj92lstgfgct24a6h85 PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - A Remedy for 'Dutch Disease'? Natural Resources and Political-Economic Development in Norway. T2 - 2024 Berggruen Government Index N2 - Ahead of parliamentary elections on September 8th, what is the state of Norway’s democracy, government, and economy? For decades, Norway has defied paradoxical misfortunates of ample natural resources (“Dutch Disease”), instead investing its natural riches into building a highly representative political system and robust state. In order to investigate how Norway has defied the conventional “resource curse” narrative, this report— with evidence from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index— explores the history of Norway and examines current political challenges that could threaten to disrupt its relatively secure and stable status quo. We find that Norway has built its success so through a combination of historical processes which facilitated early democratization, important cultural dynamics that link representation and modernization, and deliberate policy choices that channeled resource rents into long-term investments rather than short-term political gains. Although emerging social fractures could pose a risk to its fortunate situation, Norway’s wealth and strong institutions leave it in a better place to combat political dysfunction and economic stagnation than many other developed countries. KW - Sociology Y1 - 2025 UR - https://ucla.app.box.com/s/xq7sinef0iu0g4vet9hj6ysnwnrlbg1c PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER -