TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Lang, Markus A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index II: Initial results, 2000–2019 JF - Global Policy N2 - This article presents an overview of some of the main findings from our analysis of the Berggruen Governance Index for the 2000–2019 period. It first examines overall governance performance across world regions, singles out general trends and identifies top and bottom performers. It then briefly reviews the comparative governance performance of world powers like the United States, Brazil, China, major European countries, India and Russia as well as other selected countries in the post-Soviet space. Finally, we address more analytic questions to show the versatility of the index for hypothesis testing and theoretical purposes. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13277 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 16 EP - 34 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - List, Regina A. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Advancing governance indicator systems: Lessons learned from the 2022 symposium JF - Global Policy N2 - The Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) is a new and innovative entry into the crowded domain of quantitative governance research. In its effort to contribute to the field, the BGI builds off of and acts in dialogue with several other governance indicator projects from across the globe. As part of a collaborative outlook, the BGI convened the first of three symposia at the UCLA Luskin School in October 2022, titled ‘Advancing Governance Indicator Systems: The 2022 Conference’. The event invited representatives from other indicator projects to share their thoughts on the BGI, present their own projects and discuss avenues for further research and development of ‘planetary’ indicators. This article discusses the highlights and key contributions from the conference. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13284 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 136 EP - 146 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Lang, Markus A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Introducing the Berggruen Governance Index I: Conceptual and methodological framework JF - Global Policy N2 - Governance is at the heart of how well governments meet public needs and manage a wide array of common problems. Why do some countries perform poorly in delivering healthcare, reducing inequality, providing a clean environment or delivering some other public good to their populations even while they have the resources to do so? Does the capacity of states to provide the basics for societies to thrive depend on forms of democratic accountability that represents different interests, or are systems under technocratic control that impose solutions and disregard, even suppress, many voices better at meeting public needs? Existing indices do not systematically examine the relationship between the components that contribute to governance performance. In our understanding of governance, depicted as the Governance Triangle, public goods provision is a function of state capacity and accountability. Rather than focusing on a single composite performance measure, the Berggruen Governance Index examines the interactions among these dimensions. We find that the key to good governance is achieving a balance among the three dimensions on an upward and sustainable trajectory. This article introduces the Index and the conceptual and methodological framework that underpins it and then outlines the content of this special issue. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13278 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 5 EP - 15 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - A falling star? Origins of declining state capacity and democratic accountability in the United States JF - Global Policy N2 - AbstractThe United States—often hailed as the ‘oldest democracy in the world’ and the ‘leader of the free world’—has fallen on hard times. In addition to recent headline‐grabbing political events that have highlighted its political dysfunction, data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) reveal that overall state capacity and democratic accountability have been declining for years. Although public goods provision has remained on a steady course, the US still trails much of the developed world. We find this struggling performance is largely the result of neglecting three types of infrastructure: civic, physical and social. Specifically, we argue that the crisis became particularly pronounced due to an insufficient response to the 2008 global financial crisis. Although some recent political achievements could slow the decline, more drastic action will be required to reverse these troubling trends. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13282 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 47 EP - 57 PB - Wiley ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Escape from the ‘lost decades?’ Governance challenges in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela JF - Global Policy N2 - Much of Latin America has experienced a renewed ‘lost decade’, failing to substantially expand quality of life since the late 2000s. While the outcomes of governance performance across the largest countries – including Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina – have discrete causes, common themes like internal conflict, corruption, and overreliance on natural resources plague the entire region. Put more generally, the inability to turn democratic accountability into a state mechanism able to deliver economic growth and public goods in a sustainable manner is a liability affecting all five countries. To explore the difficulties that the large Latin American countries have faced in the twenty‐first century, this article examines results from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, and then presents three key issues facing the region: insufficient state capacity, flirtations with authoritarianism, and economic inequality and inflation. While the challenges remain substantial, increased regional integration may offer one way out of the predicament. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13279 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 113 EP - 123 PB - Wiley ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Stable or stagnant? Political economy and governance in the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany since 2000 JF - Global Policy N2 - At the beginning of the twenty‐first century, the large democracies of Western Europe experienced some of the most prosperous and peaceful decades in human history. Specifically, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany experienced high and stable quality of life, democratic accountability and state capacity between 2000 and 2019, according to the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index. While all four of these countries are among the top performers in the Index, substantial problems lurk beneath the surface. Notably, each failed to capitalise on the low interest rate environment in the decade following the global financial crisis of 2007–2009—albeit in different ways and for different reasons in each country. In particular, low investment in infrastructure and key technologies, the persistence of stubborn regional inequalities, and resulting sluggish GDP growth have prevented the ‘Big Four’ in Western Europe from improving further and future‐proofing their existing gains. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13271 SN - 1758-5880 N1 - Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library VL - 14 IS - S4 SP - 90 EP - 103 PB - Wiley ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Todd-Tombini, Sofia T1 - The New Nationalisms and the Future of Cultural Relations: External Cultural Policy in an Age of Political Extremes N2 - This paper explores the impact of rising nationalism on soft power by analysing the external cultural policies (ECP) of eight countries: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, the United States, China, Russia, and Turkey. It argues that ECP will increasingly operate in a zero-sum international environment shaped by nationalism, with its domestic effects varying across nations. While institutions in France are more exposed to nationalist influence, the ‘arm’s length’ principle offers greater protection in the UK and Germany, and the diversity of private actors serves as a protective buffer in the United States. Nationalistic ECP in China, Russia, and Turkey is anticipated to grow, while Poland exemplifies institutional resistance to nationalism. The paper then proceeds into a case study of the current discourse in Germany, contrasting the views of different nationalist parties about German ECP. Finally, recommendations are proposed for countries like Germany and other European nations: support the arm’s-length principle of key institutions; enhance coordination among ECP actors domestically and within the EU; shield against malign foreign influence; create and communicate anti-nationalist narratives; proactively leveraging existing strengths and opportunities. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17901/1493 PB - ifa (Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen e.V.) CY - Stuttgart ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandal: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election N2 - This report evaluates the governance performance of the United Kingdom ahead of the 2024 election, focusing on the interplay between fiscal austerity, economic stagnation, and public scandal. Despite a high initial governance performance in terms of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, recent years have seen a notable decline in state capacity due to austerity measures and political scandals. These have eroded public trust and highlighted the need for structural reforms. Key recommendations include enhancing investment in public services, improving regional economic policies, and addressing the UK's growing fiscal challenges to restore trust and ensure long-term growth. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://policycommons.net/artifacts/13389711/uk_election/14287485/ PB - Berggruen Governance Project CY - United States of America ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph T1 - Political Instability and Economic Development in the Sahel: Governance in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Sudan since 2000 N2 - The 2020s have been a troubled decade so far for many countries in the Sahel. Although a serious of coups and widespread political instability in the region have dominated headlines, findings from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) indicate this grim picture may be incomplete. Indeed, the BGI finds some notable improvements, especially in public good provision, where some of the Sahel countries profiled in this report are among the most improved worldwide since 2000. However, these improvements rest on shaky ground, as countries in the region have long been trapped by unsustainable economic policies that focus almost exclusively on exploiting the natural resources of the region. This can lead to a vicious cycle of economic and institutional underdevelopment and political dysfunction, as extractive industries lead to elite capture, and uneven and unsustainable growth patterns, with high levels of corruption and violence among those competing for resources, reliance on overseas development aid, and eventually vulnerabilities to geopolitical influence. To address these interlocking weaknesses, this report suggests a dual economic strategy to form the foundations for more resilient institutions: 1) making more productive use of natural resources by building up capacity for higher in-country value-added through domesticating production chains; and 2) building high-tech partnerships with more developed countries to manage climate change and build sustainable agriculture. Based on such economic gains, greater fiscal and administrative state capacities could then be leveraged to create more durable governance institutions, further enabling more resilient development. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Saraceno, Joseph A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - Towards A New Global Contestation? Comparing the Governance Performance of G7 and BRICS+ Nations N2 - The expansion of the BRICS to the BRICS+ group of countries potentially reflects a major geopolitical shift. This change indicates the possibility of rising tensions with the Group of Seven (G7), a collection of wealthy liberal democracies. The growing importance of BRICS and BRICS+ countries raises important questions about how their governance performance compares to G7 countries in terms of providing public goods such as social security, health and environmental protection. The report explores these questions with the help of the Berggruen Governance Index, which measures the governance performance of countries using three major dimensions and their relationship between each other: democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of governance) and public goods provision (quality of life). In relation to the first question, the report finds that the G7 outperforms BRICS+ in all three governance dimensions. However, advances in the provision of public goods have been significant in some BRICS+ countries, even as state capacity and/or democratic accountability declined. This finding challenges the “autocratic fallacy,” which states that authoritarian governance cannot effectively scale public goods, and that broad-based prosperity is correlated with adherence to democratic principles. It would further challenge the notion that democracy and wellbeing are the common telos of how countries develop over time. At the same time, results indicate that, rather than seeking fuller confrontation with G7 countries, most BRICS+ members engage in a mix of cooperation and contestation to gauge opportunities while mitigating risks in uncertain geopolitical conditions. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Right-wing Populism, the State, and Democracy: Governance Performance & the 2024 European Parliament Elections N2 - Right-wing parties are expected to gain substantially in the 2024 European Parliament elections. Comparing the results of the Berggruen Governance Index with current electoral predictions shows that the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and Eurocrisis, in particular prolonged budget cuts and other austerity measures, have contributed to worsening state capacity and weakening democratic accountability in many European countries. This led to a growing sense of insecurity and build-up of grievances among those population groups most affected by austerity measures. Far-right parties opportunistically exploited these sentiments, especially by linking them to anxieties around migration. In this way, actual shortages in fields like housing—which are largely derived from underinvestment and austerity—are dubiously attributed to migrants. As a result, right-wing parties have been able to use this simplistic scapegoat in order to appeal to a wide range of resentments, which stem largely from a decaying institutional environment, rather than outside sources. What can be done to reverse these dynamics? Changes in governance performance tend to be slow moving, and corrective action may take some time to bear fruit. The analysis suggests that crisis-driven austerity policies must stop as they contribute to weaker institutions and increasing polarization in the medium to long term. The rise of the far right is thus the collective result of misguided policies by governments in power over the last decade or so. They now must correct them and prove that they can proactively anticipate as well as solve public problems such as social and regional inequalities. For this to happen, public sector reforms and strategic investments in state capacity and democratic resilience are urgently needed. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Fiscal Austerity, Economic Stagnation, and Public Scandals: Governance Performance in the United Kingdom Ahead of the 2024 Election N2 - As the United Kingdom heads to the polls on July 4th, 2024, the country faces several interlocking crises. Post-2010 austerity measures and the decision to leave the EU have left long-term scars on the United Kingdom´s economy, leading to an economic drift away from other wealthy countries. Changes in key indicators such a productivity and regional inequality highlight this trend. While its governance performance has been among the highest worldwide – in terms of democratic accountability (quality of democracy), state capacity (quality of government) and public goods provision (quality of life) – there are signs of stagnation and erosion, particular in state capacity. Since the latter is a major mediating factor in democracy’s ability to produce public goods, there is an urgent need for structural change if the country is to avoid succumbing to even more severe problems impacting its future quality of life. However, any reform effort must weigh the pressing need for public investments with the country´s growing indebtedness. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Tunisia’s Autocratic Resurgence: Political Reforms Without Economic Progress Threatens Democracy N2 - This report examines Tunisia’s recent democratic trajectory ahead of the October 2024 presidential elections. Following the 2010 Jasmine Revolution, findings from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) demonstrate dramatic improvements in democratic accountability and state capacity — followed by a rapid decline in the early 2020s. We suggest the reason for the non-durability of these gains may be due to Tunisia’s failure to achieve substantial economic growth or improvements in public goods provision. This economic stagnation undermined the democratic advancements, leading to political dysfunction and a regression into authoritarianism under President Kaïs Saïed. Using the Tunisian example of how economic progress contributed to rising political unrest in spite of greater democratic accountability, it then explores theoretical perspectives on why democracies at lower development levels may struggle economically, citing factors like immediate consumption pressures, policy uncertainty, and labor rights affecting foreign investment. The upcoming October 2024 elections are assessed, with a cautious outlook on their potential to reverse authoritarian trends. The report concludes by emphasizing the critical lesson from Tunisia’s experience: political reforms must be coupled with tangible economic improvements to ensure the consolidation and longevity of democratic governance. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Democratic distortions and a struggling state: The United States on the eve of the 2024 presidential election N2 - During election season, most U.S. media coverage centers on a “horse race” analysis of public opinion and the latest polling. However, understanding the broader context of governance provides a more comprehensive view of the factors that shape the U.S. political landscape. The outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will undoubtedly shape domestic policies and influence the country’s role on the world stage, but it is crucial to recognize that the challenges facing its political system are structural and have developed over many years. In this spirit, this report discusses developments in U.S. governance since 2000, focusing on the metrics of democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision from the Berggruen Governance Index. It finds that democratic accountability — particularly electoral accountability—and state capacity have experienced sharp declines since 2015, limiting the responsiveness and effectiveness of government. Although public goods have remained constant, this occurs in the context of rising public debt and at lower levels in comparison to other advanced democracies. Especially in swing states, there are sharp declines in democratic accountability, creating significant risks for the integrity of the U.S. election where it matters most. We conclude by speculating how different outcomes in the U.S. election might affect the future of U.S. governance across all three dimensions, projecting that a Harris victory would likely be more beneficial across all three categories. However, Harris will face severe challenges considering the structural constraints and deficiencies of the U.S. system. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Balancing Progress and Democracy: Mexico’s Governance Under Sheinbaum N2 - With the election of Claudia Sheinbaum as Mexico’s first female president on June 2, 2024, the country entered another six-year term under the leadership of the left-wing Morena Party. The previous president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), also of Morena, ruled from 2018 to 2024. This remarkable electoral outcome raises important questions about longer-term trends in Mexican governance and invites comparisons with neighboring countries. Using insights from the 2024 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), we can look deeper at Mexico’s trajectory. We find that, since 2000, Mexico has struggled to catch up with more developed nations like the U.S or Canada in the governance measures but still outpaces many other Latin American countries. The Morena administrations have embarked on ambitious programs of state building and economic nationalism, but these efforts have been criticized for contributing to democratic backsliding, particularly in the conservative U.S. press. Still, Mexico has achieved a solid degree of economic success, rebounding rapidly after the pandemic and GDP per capita increasing by over 50% since AMLO took over in 2018. Much of this growth has been driven by traditionally poorer southern regions in the country. Despite some signs of success, one of Sheinbaum’s key dilemmas will be to balance a more expanded and effective reach of the state—both geographically and economically—without undermining democratic norms. Given resistance to changes like judicial reform, resource nationalization, and use of the military for state-building projects, this will be a difficult balance to strike. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. T1 - Germany 2025: The Slow Decline in Governance Performance Erupts Into Crisis of Government as Geopolitics Worsen N2 - This report examines the decline of Germany’s economic and political stability over the past decade, emphasizing how structural challenges have eroded the country’s once-sterling reputation for success and good governance. Although Germany was lauded throughout the 2010s for its robust economy and political cohesion under Chancellor Angela Merkel, recent developments—including a stagnating export sector, rising inequality, and political fragmentation—have sparked growing concerns. Drawing on data from the Berggruen Governance Index (BGI), the report shows that Germany’s scores in democratic accountability, state capacity, and public goods provision, while still high by global standards, have gradually but consistently deteriorated since 2011. Building on these findings, the paper identifies four core drivers of this decline: inadequate investment in infrastructure, backlash against migration, foreign policy vulnerabilities, and the broader impact of the recent economic downturn. The report then connects these developments to the upcoming February 2025 elections, examining how Germany’s governance and political-economic trends are likely to influence electoral behavior and shape the policy choices available to a likely CDU-led government. Y1 - 2025 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Saraceno, Joseph C. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. T1 - The 2024 Berggruen Governance Index – Democracy Challenged N2 - THE BERGGRUEN GOVERNANCE INDEX PROJECT (BGI) analyzes the relationship between democratic accountability, state capacity and the provision of public goods. It builds upon prior work that examined the impact of governance and democracy on the quality of life. It is a collaborative project between the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs, the Hertie School, and the Berggruen Institute. Y1 - 2024 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER -