TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts? JF - Research and Politics N2 - Economic performance is a key component of most election forecasts. When fitting models, however, most forecasters unwittingly assume that the actual state of the economy, a state best estimated by the multiple periodic revisions to official macroeconomic statistics, drives voter behavior. The difference in macroeconomic estimates between revised and original data vintages can be substantial, commonly over 100% (two-fold) for economic growth estimates, making the choice of which data release to use important for the predictive validity of a model. We systematically compare the predictions of four forecasting models for numerous US presidential elections using real-time and vintage data. We find that newer data are not better data for election forecasting: forecasting error increases with data revisions. This result suggests that voter perceptions of economic growth are influenced more by media reports about the economy, which are based on initial economic estimates, than by the actual state of the economy. KW - Forecasting KW - Elections KW - Economic vote KW - Real-time data KW - Media Y1 - 2015 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16321 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015589624 SN - 2053-1680 VL - 2 IS - 3 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Sage CY - London [u.a.] ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Stanig, Piero A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Introducing a New Generation of Governance Indicators T2 - The Governance Report 2013 N2 - This Report is about the state of governance. Few would doubt that the conditions of governance have changed — and continue to change — as the early 21st century seems to enter a period of profound uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, the world seems alive with a cacophony of approaches — old and new — on how to improve governance and, ultimately, policy outcomes. This Report — the first in a series of annual editions produced by the Hertie School of Governance — seeks to address the implications of the current state of the world in terms of "good governance", that is, the effective, efficient, and reliable set of legitimate institutions and actors dedicated to dealing with matters of public concern, be it in the field of financial markets, health care, security, or migration, and across local, national, and international levels. Following an introduction that offers a framework of basic concepts and models, The Governance Report 2013 then goes on to explore a number of global challenges and the reasons behind seemingly lacklustre responses and highlight the need for responsible sovereignty; examine in depth the challenges of financial and fiscal governance with a focus on the trade-offs and ways to address them; analyse key governance innovations and their potential for success; and assess existing indicators of governance, while proposing a new framework for collecting, interpreting, and applying governance-related information. The findings lead to a set of concrete proposals on the way ahead.(About the Book) Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-0-19-967442-8 N1 - Available as print in your Hertie Library. Als Druckversion in der Hertie Bibliothek verfügbar. SP - 117 EP - 148 PB - Oxford Univ.Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Abou-Chadi, Tarik T1 - It's Not Easy Being Green: Why Voters Punish Parties for Environmental Policies in Downturns JF - Electoral Studies N2 - Recent scholarship asserts the existence of “luxury goods voting” arguing that voters penalize parties associated with post-material issues or those with long-run payoffs during economic downturns. We test this arguments here using data from four election studies in Denmark and Germany that explicitly ask respondents to rate parties on one particular luxury goods issue: protection of the environment. Voters who perceive the economy as weak indeed punish governing parties more severely when they associate them with environmental policies; conversely, a green reputation when the economy is expanding garners left-wing parties higher vote probabilities. Right-wing governing parties fare similarly, benefitting from those who perceive them as green when the economy is hale, albeit only converging to the vote probabilities awarded from voters who see them as less green when the economy sours. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.009 VL - 45 SP - 201 EP - 207 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Houle, Christian A1 - Xiang, Jun T1 - Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy JF - International Organization N2 - Scholars, observing clustering in transitions to democracy, argue that democratization diffuses across borders as citizens in autocracies demand the same reforms they witness in neighboring states. We disagree. This article demonstrates that diffusion plays only a highly conditional role in democratization. We advance and test an alternative two-step theory of clustered democratization: (1) economic and international political shocks, which are clustered spatially and temporally, induce the breakdown of authoritarian regimes; then (2) democratic diffusion, in turn, influences whether a fallen dictatorship will be replaced by a democracy or a new autocracy. Diffusion, despite playing an important role, is insufficient to explain the clustering of transitions. Using data on 125 autocracies from 1875 to 2004, we show that economic crises trigger authoritarian breakdowns, while diffusion influences whether the new regime is democratic or authoritarian. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081831600028X VL - 70 IS - 4 SP - 687 EP - 726 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 Bundestag Election JF - German Politics N2 - Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 106 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Lindstädt, René T1 - A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness JF - Political Analysis Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv001 SN - 1047-1987 VL - 23 IS - 2 SP - 242 EP - 253 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael T1 - Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison JF - American Political Science Review Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000275 SN - 1537-5943 VL - 106 IS - 3 SP - 661 EP - 684 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - Anheier, Helmut K. ED - Haber, Matthias ED - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Measuring Governance: An Assessment of the Research Challenges BT - Approaches, Progress, Promise T2 - Governance Indicators Y1 - 2018 SN - 9780198817062 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817062.003.0011 SP - 255 EP - 269 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael ED - Vowles, Jack ED - Xezonakis, Georgios T1 - The Buck Stops over There? Globalization and Electoral Accountability T2 - Globalization and Domestic Politics Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-0-19-875798-6 SP - 89 EP - 112 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - LeDuc, Lawrence ED - Niemi, Richard G. ED - Norris, Pippa T1 - The Elusive Economic Vote T2 - Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473921108.n7 SP - 112 EP - 132 PB - Sage CY - Thousand Oaks, CA ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Länder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election JF - Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096517000427 SN - 1049-0965 VL - 50 IS - 3 SP - 689 EP - 692 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wlezien, Christopher T1 - Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote JF - European Journal of Political Research Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01934.x VL - 50 IS - May 2011 SP - 365 EP - 394 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 3 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Stanig, Piero ED - Anheier, Helmut K. T1 - Governance Indicators: Some Proposals T2 - Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance Y1 - 2013 SN - 9780199674930 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674930.001.0001 SP - 189 EP - 220 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why. BT - The Monkey Cage JF - The Washington Post Y1 - 2016 UR - www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/22/a-far-right-party-just-won-seats-in-three-german-state-parliaments-heres-why/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4865319016c8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Voters seem to respond to the "reported" rather than to the "real" economy JF - Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) & Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance Y1 - 2015 UR - www.democraticaudit.com/2015/09/09/voters-seem-to-respond-to-the-the-reported-rather-than-the-real-economy/ UR - www.hertie-school.org/en/debate/2015/reputation-vs-reality/ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice JF - American Journal of Political Science Y1 - 2009 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00410.x VL - 53 IS - October 2009 SP - 950 EP - 970 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecasting the 2013 Election – the Post-Mortem Analysis JF - EU Political Economy Bulletin Y1 - 2014 UR - www.eustudies.org/assets/files/pecon_newsletters/Newsletter-December_2013.pdf IS - Winter 2014 SP - 9 EP - 12 PB - European Union Studies Association, EU Political Economy Interest Section CY - Pittsburgh ET - 17 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election Y1 - 2013 UR - www.researchgate.net/publication/254147383 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wegrich, Kai T1 - Von Unis Gnaden: Ein Deutsches Status Symbol JF - The European Magazine Y1 - 2011 UR - www.theeuropean.de/mark-kayser/2952-ein-deutsches-statussymbol PB - Weimer Media Group CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael T1 - Benchmarking across Borders: An Update and Response JF - British Journal of Political Science N2 - Arel-Bundock, Blais and Dassonneville (2018, ABD hereafter) offer an unusual critique of our 12 article, Benchmarking across Borders. They find no methodological flaws, produce identical 13 empirical results and concede that their proposed specification (Model 5) is mathematically 14 identical to that used in Kayser and Peress (2012, KP hereafter). ABD make two claims: (1) that 15 their preferred specification is an innovation that improves interpretation and (2) that the 16 empirical evidence presented in KP does not support benchmarking. The first is unpersuasive 17 and the second depends on a selective reading of the evidence. We address these issues below and 18 update the individual-level dataset from KP to increase statistical power, finding additional 19 evidence of benchmarking. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000625 VL - X SP - 1 EP - 4 ER -