TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Rehmert, Jochen T1 - Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment JF - Legislative Studies Quarterly N2 - In most developed democracies, parties adjust their positions to polls and public opinion. Yet, in a coalition government, the policy that emerges is often the outcome of negotiations between governing parties. We argue that the credibility of exit threats by current coalition members and the importance of outside parties for the formation of potential alternative coalitions both matter for policy adoption. Building on a new data set measuring the expected coalition‐inclusion probabilities of parties in parliamentary democracies, we estimate the effect of coalition prospects on an important policy outcome—environmental policy stringency—in nine European countries between 1990 and 2012. Our findings demonstrate that only polling shifts that alter coalition probabilities affect outcomes. Changes in the coalition‐inclusion probability of green parties—regardless of whether they are in government—predict changes in the environmental policy stringency of sitting governments. Political polls, in contrast, do not. KW - - KW - coalitions KW - coalition bargaining KW - coalition‐inclusion probabilities KW - environmental policy KW - policy change Y1 - 2020 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36133 SN - 1939-9162 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why. BT - The Monkey Cage JF - The Washington Post Y1 - 2016 UR - www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/22/a-far-right-party-just-won-seats-in-three-german-state-parliaments-heres-why/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4865319016c8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Voters seem to respond to the "reported" rather than to the "real" economy JF - Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) & Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance Y1 - 2015 UR - www.democraticaudit.com/2015/09/09/voters-seem-to-respond-to-the-the-reported-rather-than-the-real-economy/ UR - www.hertie-school.org/en/debate/2015/reputation-vs-reality/ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecasting the 2013 Election – the Post-Mortem Analysis JF - EU Political Economy Bulletin Y1 - 2014 UR - www.eustudies.org/assets/files/pecon_newsletters/Newsletter-December_2013.pdf IS - Winter 2014 SP - 9 EP - 12 PB - European Union Studies Association, EU Political Economy Interest Section CY - Pittsburgh ET - 17 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Stanig, Piero ED - Anheier, Helmut K. T1 - Governance Indicators: Some Proposals T2 - Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance Y1 - 2013 SN - 9780199674930 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674930.001.0001 SP - 189 EP - 220 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wegrich, Kai T1 - Von Unis Gnaden: Ein Deutsches Status Symbol JF - The European Magazine Y1 - 2011 UR - www.theeuropean.de/mark-kayser/2952-ein-deutsches-statussymbol PB - Weimer Media Group CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wlezien, Christopher T1 - Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote JF - European Journal of Political Research Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01934.x VL - 50 IS - May 2011 SP - 365 EP - 394 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election Y1 - 2013 UR - www.researchgate.net/publication/254147383 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice JF - American Journal of Political Science Y1 - 2009 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00410.x VL - 53 IS - October 2009 SP - 950 EP - 970 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 4 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Stanig, Piero A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Introducing a New Generation of Governance Indicators T2 - The Governance Report 2013 N2 - This Report is about the state of governance. Few would doubt that the conditions of governance have changed — and continue to change — as the early 21st century seems to enter a period of profound uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, the world seems alive with a cacophony of approaches — old and new — on how to improve governance and, ultimately, policy outcomes. This Report — the first in a series of annual editions produced by the Hertie School of Governance — seeks to address the implications of the current state of the world in terms of "good governance", that is, the effective, efficient, and reliable set of legitimate institutions and actors dedicated to dealing with matters of public concern, be it in the field of financial markets, health care, security, or migration, and across local, national, and international levels. Following an introduction that offers a framework of basic concepts and models, The Governance Report 2013 then goes on to explore a number of global challenges and the reasons behind seemingly lacklustre responses and highlight the need for responsible sovereignty; examine in depth the challenges of financial and fiscal governance with a focus on the trade-offs and ways to address them; analyse key governance innovations and their potential for success; and assess existing indicators of governance, while proposing a new framework for collecting, interpreting, and applying governance-related information. The findings lead to a set of concrete proposals on the way ahead.(About the Book) Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-0-19-967442-8 N1 - Available as print in your Hertie Library. Als Druckversion in der Hertie Bibliothek verfügbar. SP - 117 EP - 148 PB - Oxford Univ.Press CY - Oxford ER -