TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Rehmert, Jochen T1 - Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment JF - Legislative Studies Quarterly N2 - In most developed democracies, parties adjust their positions to polls and public opinion. Yet, in a coalition government, the policy that emerges is often the outcome of negotiations between governing parties. We argue that the credibility of exit threats by current coalition members and the importance of outside parties for the formation of potential alternative coalitions both matter for policy adoption. Building on a new data set measuring the expected coalition‐inclusion probabilities of parties in parliamentary democracies, we estimate the effect of coalition prospects on an important policy outcome—environmental policy stringency—in nine European countries between 1990 and 2012. Our findings demonstrate that only polling shifts that alter coalition probabilities affect outcomes. Changes in the coalition‐inclusion probability of green parties—regardless of whether they are in government—predict changes in the environmental policy stringency of sitting governments. Political polls, in contrast, do not. KW - - KW - coalitions KW - coalition bargaining KW - coalition‐inclusion probabilities KW - environmental policy KW - policy change Y1 - 2020 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36133 SN - 1939-9162 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why. BT - The Monkey Cage JF - The Washington Post Y1 - 2016 UR - www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/03/22/a-far-right-party-just-won-seats-in-three-german-state-parliaments-heres-why/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4865319016c8 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Voters seem to respond to the "reported" rather than to the "real" economy JF - Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) & Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance Y1 - 2015 UR - www.democraticaudit.com/2015/09/09/voters-seem-to-respond-to-the-the-reported-rather-than-the-real-economy/ UR - www.hertie-school.org/en/debate/2015/reputation-vs-reality/ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecasting the 2013 Election – the Post-Mortem Analysis JF - EU Political Economy Bulletin Y1 - 2014 UR - www.eustudies.org/assets/files/pecon_newsletters/Newsletter-December_2013.pdf IS - Winter 2014 SP - 9 EP - 12 PB - European Union Studies Association, EU Political Economy Interest Section CY - Pittsburgh ET - 17 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Stanig, Piero ED - Anheier, Helmut K. T1 - Governance Indicators: Some Proposals T2 - Governance Challenges and Innovations: Financial and Fiscal Governance Y1 - 2013 SN - 9780199674930 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199674930.001.0001 SP - 189 EP - 220 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wegrich, Kai T1 - Von Unis Gnaden: Ein Deutsches Status Symbol JF - The European Magazine Y1 - 2011 UR - www.theeuropean.de/mark-kayser/2952-ein-deutsches-statussymbol PB - Weimer Media Group CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wlezien, Christopher T1 - Performance Pressure: Patterns of Partisanship and the Economic Vote JF - European Journal of Political Research Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.2010.01934.x VL - 50 IS - May 2011 SP - 365 EP - 394 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election Y1 - 2013 UR - www.researchgate.net/publication/254147383 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Partisan Waves: International Business Cycles and Electoral Choice JF - American Journal of Political Science Y1 - 2009 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00410.x VL - 53 IS - October 2009 SP - 950 EP - 970 PB - John Wiley & Sons ET - 4 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Stanig, Piero A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Introducing a New Generation of Governance Indicators T2 - The Governance Report 2013 N2 - This Report is about the state of governance. Few would doubt that the conditions of governance have changed — and continue to change — as the early 21st century seems to enter a period of profound uncertainty. Yet, at the same time, the world seems alive with a cacophony of approaches — old and new — on how to improve governance and, ultimately, policy outcomes. This Report — the first in a series of annual editions produced by the Hertie School of Governance — seeks to address the implications of the current state of the world in terms of "good governance", that is, the effective, efficient, and reliable set of legitimate institutions and actors dedicated to dealing with matters of public concern, be it in the field of financial markets, health care, security, or migration, and across local, national, and international levels. Following an introduction that offers a framework of basic concepts and models, The Governance Report 2013 then goes on to explore a number of global challenges and the reasons behind seemingly lacklustre responses and highlight the need for responsible sovereignty; examine in depth the challenges of financial and fiscal governance with a focus on the trade-offs and ways to address them; analyse key governance innovations and their potential for success; and assess existing indicators of governance, while proposing a new framework for collecting, interpreting, and applying governance-related information. The findings lead to a set of concrete proposals on the way ahead.(About the Book) Y1 - 2013 SN - 978-0-19-967442-8 N1 - Available as print in your Hertie Library. Als Druckversion in der Hertie Bibliothek verfügbar. SP - 117 EP - 148 PB - Oxford Univ.Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - GEN A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Haber, Matthias A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - Anheier, Helmut K. ED - Haber, Matthias ED - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Governance Indicators: Approaches, Progress, Promise N2 - As difficult as it might seem to define governance, it appears to be that much more difficult to measure it. Since the World Bank Institute launched the Worldwide Governance Indicators in the late 1990s, the governance indicators field has flourished and experienced significant advances in terms of methodology, data coverage and quality, and policy relevance. Other major initiatives have added to a momentum that propelled research on governance indicators seen in few other academic fields in the economic and social sciences. Given these developments and the prominence and policy relevance the field of governance indicator research has achieved, the time is ripe to take stock and ask what has been accomplished, what the shortcomings and potentials might be, and what steps present themselves as a way forward. This volume—the fifth edition in an annual series tackling different aspects of governance around the world—assesses what has been achieved, identifies strengths and weaknesses of current work, and points to issues that need to be tackled in order to advance the field, both in its academic importance as well as in its policy relevance. In short, the contributions to this volume explore the scope of existing governance indices and indicator frameworks, elaborate on current challenges in measuring and analysing governance, and consider how to overcome them. Y1 - 2018 SN - 9780198817062 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817062.001.0001 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Houle, Christian A1 - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - The Two-step Model of Clustered Democratization JF - Journal of Conflict Resolution N2 - Does democratization diffuse? For over two decades, numerous studies have asserted that democratization diffuses across countries but recent research has challenged this claim. Most recently, work by Brancati and Lucardi has buttressed this null finding by demonstrating that an oft assumed mechanism for the diffusion of democratization—the diffusion of pro-democracy protests—lacks empirical support. We review this contribution in the context of recent research and pose the question: if democratization does not diffuse, then why does democratization cluster in time and space? The answer, we argue, is that democratization occurs in two steps. First, common shocks, economic or political, lead to regime collapse. Then, diffusion does emerge in a second step: new elites are more likely to install a democracy following a regime collapse if neighboring countries have recently democratized. We present evidence from democratic transitions in 125 autocracies between 1875 and 2014. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719875565 VL - 63 IS - 10 SP - 2421 EP - 2437 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael T1 - Benchmarking across Borders: An Update and Response JF - British Journal of Political Science N2 - Arel-Bundock, Blais and Dassonneville (2018, ABD hereafter) offer an unusual critique of our 12 article, Benchmarking across Borders. They find no methodological flaws, produce identical 13 empirical results and concede that their proposed specification (Model 5) is mathematically 14 identical to that used in Kayser and Peress (2012, KP hereafter). ABD make two claims: (1) that 15 their preferred specification is an innovation that improves interpretation and (2) that the 16 empirical evidence presented in KP does not support benchmarking. The first is unpersuasive 17 and the second depends on a selective reading of the evidence. We address these issues below and 18 update the individual-level dataset from KP to increase statistical power, finding additional 19 evidence of benchmarking. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123418000625 VL - X SP - 1 EP - 4 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Eine länderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017 JF - Politische Vierteljahresschrift N2 - When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag) election results in the German states (Länder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effects model provides our estimates. Länder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative. KW - Elections KW - forecasting KW - parties KW - Germany Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-407 SN - 0032-3470 IS - 58(3) SP - 407 EP - 417 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Laender-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election JF - PS: Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096517000427 VL - 50 IS - 3 SP - 689 EP - 692 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Blaydes, Lisa T1 - Counting Calories: Democracy and Distribution in the Developing World JF - International Studies Quarterly N2 - How does regime type affect the poor? Are certain types of regimes better at translating economic growth into consumption for the world's least privileged citizens? We propose an alternative measure of transfers to the poor that is nearly universally available and innately captures distribution: average daily calorie consumption. In sharp contrast to the consumption of material goods or the accumulation of wealth for which humans have shown no upper bound on their ability to achieve, biological limits make it impossible for a small number of individuals to consume most of a nation's calories. Democracies and hybrid regimes—which combine elements of autocracy and democracy—are better at translating economic growth into total calorie consumption than autocracies and perform strikingly similarly in this regard; democracies outperform both hybrid regimes and autocracies, however, in converting growth into higher quality calories from animal sources. Y1 - 2011 UR - http://www.researchgate.net/publication/227697759_Counting_Calories_Democracy_and_Distribution_in_the_Developing_World1 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00692.x SN - 1468-2478 VL - 55 IS - 4 SP - 887 EP - 908 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 Bundestag Election JF - German Politics N2 - Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 106 EP - 130 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael T1 - Does the Media Cover the Economy Accurately? Evidence from Sixteen Developed Democracies. JF - Quarterly Journal of Political Science N2 - Can voters learn what they need to learn to hold governments accountable for theeconomy through news coverage? Employing the first large-scale cross-nationaldataset of media coverage of the economy—over 2 million machine-coded articlesrelated to three economic indicators in 32 mainstream newspapers, one left-wingand one right-wing, in 16 developed countries and six languages—we investigatemedia coverage of the economy that bears implications for electoral accountabilityand partisan advantage. We find that the tone of most mainstream newspaperstracks the economy faithfully, although the frequency of coverage increases withnegative outcomes. While we find some evidence for partisan bias in tone forgrowth headlines and in frequency of coverage for unemployment articles, itssubstantive magnitude is diminutive. Mainstream newspaper coverage providesvoters with largely accurate information. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1561/100.00019098 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 33 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Abou-Chadi, Tarik T1 - It's Not Easy Being Green: Why Voters Punish Parties for Environmental Policies in Downturns JF - Electoral Studies N2 - Recent scholarship asserts the existence of “luxury goods voting” arguing that voters penalize parties associated with post-material issues or those with long-run payoffs during economic downturns. We test this arguments here using data from four election studies in Denmark and Germany that explicitly ask respondents to rate parties on one particular luxury goods issue: protection of the environment. Voters who perceive the economy as weak indeed punish governing parties more severely when they associate them with environmental policies; conversely, a green reputation when the economy is expanding garners left-wing parties higher vote probabilities. Right-wing governing parties fare similarly, benefitting from those who perceive them as green when the economy is hale, albeit only converging to the vote probabilities awarded from voters who see them as less green when the economy sours. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.10.009 VL - 45 SP - 201 EP - 207 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Houle, Christian A1 - Xiang, Jun T1 - Diffusion or Confusion? Clustered Shocks and the Conditional Diffusion of Democracy JF - International Organization N2 - Scholars, observing clustering in transitions to democracy, argue that democratization diffuses across borders as citizens in autocracies demand the same reforms they witness in neighboring states. We disagree. This article demonstrates that diffusion plays only a highly conditional role in democratization. We advance and test an alternative two-step theory of clustered democratization: (1) economic and international political shocks, which are clustered spatially and temporally, induce the breakdown of authoritarian regimes; then (2) democratic diffusion, in turn, influences whether a fallen dictatorship will be replaced by a democracy or a new autocracy. Diffusion, despite playing an important role, is insufficient to explain the clustering of transitions. Using data on 125 autocracies from 1875 to 2004, we show that economic crises trigger authoritarian breakdowns, while diffusion influences whether the new regime is democratic or authoritarian. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S002081831600028X VL - 70 IS - 4 SP - 687 EP - 726 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - LeDuc, Lawrence ED - Niemi, Richard G. ED - Norris, Pippa T1 - The Elusive Economic Vote T2 - Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in a Changing World Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4135/9781473921108.n7 SP - 112 EP - 132 PB - Sage CY - Thousand Oaks, CA ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - A Länder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election JF - Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096517000427 SN - 1049-0965 VL - 50 IS - 3 SP - 689 EP - 692 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael ED - Vowles, Jack ED - Xezonakis, Georgios T1 - The Buck Stops over There? Globalization and Electoral Accountability T2 - Globalization and Domestic Politics Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-0-19-875798-6 SP - 89 EP - 112 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Peress, Michael T1 - Benchmarking across Borders: Electoral Accountability and the Necessity of Comparison JF - American Political Science Review Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055412000275 SN - 1537-5943 VL - 106 IS - 3 SP - 661 EP - 684 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Lindstädt, René T1 - A Cross-National Measure of Electoral Competitiveness JF - Political Analysis Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv001 SN - 1047-1987 VL - 23 IS - 2 SP - 242 EP - 253 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt ED - Hellwig, Timothy ED - Singer, Matthew T1 - The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany: A Cautionary Tale about Data Vintages and Measurement T2 - Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support Y1 - 2023 SN - 9780192871664 PB - Oxford University Press ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt A1 - Vlasenko, Anastasiia T1 - A Länder-Based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election JF - PS: Political Science & Politics Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096521000974 VL - 55 IS - 1 SP - 79 EP - 84 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Orlowski, Matthias A1 - Rehmert, Jochen T1 - Coalition inclusion probabilities: a party-strategic measure for predicting policy and politics JF - Political Science Research and Methods N2 - Policy in coalition governments (a) depends on negotiations between parties that (b) continue between elections. No extant means of predicting policy—bargaining power indices, vote shares, seat shares, polling, veto players or measures of electoral competitiveness—recognizes both of these facts. We conceptualize, estimate and validate the first dynamic measure of parties’ bargaining leverage intended to predict policy and politics. We argue that those parties with the greatest leverage in policy negotiations are those with the highest probability of participating in an alternative government, were one to form. Combining a large set of political polls and an empirical coalition formation model developed with out-of-sample testing, we estimate coalition inclusion probabilities for parties in a sample of 21 parliamentary democracies at a monthly frequency over four decades. Applications to government spending and to the stringency of environmental policy show leverage from coalition inclusion probabilities to be strongly predictive while the primary alternatives—vote shares, seat shares and polls—are not. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2021.75 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 328 EP - 346 ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Chang, Eric C.C. A1 - Linzerand, Drew A1 - Rogowski, Ronald T1 - Electoral Systems and the Balance of Consumer-Producer Power N2 - This book investigates the effects of electoral systems on the relative legislative and, hence, regulatory influence of competing interests in society. Building on Ronald Rogowski and Mark Andreas Kayser’s extension of the classic Stigler-Peltzman model of regulation, the authors demonstrate that majoritarian electoral arrangements should empower consumers relative to producers. Employing real price levels as a proxy for consumer power, the book rigorously establishes this proposition over time, within the OECD, and across a large sample of developing countries. Majoritarian electoral arrangements depress real prices by approximately ten percent, all else equal. The authors carefully construct and test their argument and broaden it to consider the overall welfare effects of electoral system design and the incentives of actors in the choice of electoral institutions. Y1 - 2011 SN - 9780521138154 N1 - Available as print and ebook in your Hertie Library. Als Druckversion und eBook in der Hertie Bibliothek verfügbar. PB - Cambridge Univ. Press CY - Cambridge [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Franchino, Fabio A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Wratil, Christopher T1 - Electoral competitiveness and responsiveness: rational anticipation in the EU Council JF - Journal of European Public Policy Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2021.1991986 N1 - Published online: 03 Nov 2021 VL - 29 IS - 1 SP - 42 EP - 60 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - Anheier, Helmut K. ED - Haber, Matthias ED - Kayser, Mark A. T1 - Measuring Governance: An Assessment of the Research Challenges BT - Approaches, Progress, Promise T2 - Governance Indicators Y1 - 2018 SN - 9780198817062 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198817062.003.0011 SP - 255 EP - 269 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt T1 - Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts? JF - Research and Politics N2 - Economic performance is a key component of most election forecasts. When fitting models, however, most forecasters unwittingly assume that the actual state of the economy, a state best estimated by the multiple periodic revisions to official macroeconomic statistics, drives voter behavior. The difference in macroeconomic estimates between revised and original data vintages can be substantial, commonly over 100% (two-fold) for economic growth estimates, making the choice of which data release to use important for the predictive validity of a model. We systematically compare the predictions of four forecasting models for numerous US presidential elections using real-time and vintage data. We find that newer data are not better data for election forecasting: forecasting error increases with data revisions. This result suggests that voter perceptions of economic growth are influenced more by media reports about the economy, which are based on initial economic estimates, than by the actual state of the economy. KW - Forecasting KW - Elections KW - Economic vote KW - Real-time data KW - Media Y1 - 2015 UR - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16321 SN - 2053-1680 VL - 2 IS - 3 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Sage CY - London [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Kayser, Mark A. A1 - Leininger, Arndt A1 - Murr, Andreas E. T1 - Voters’ Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls JF - Public Opinion Quarterly N2 - How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy of voters’ expectations. The analysis further shows that voters leverage the information to update their beliefs. The results have relevant implications for debates about belief formation in low-information environments. Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfae015 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Leininger, Arndt A1 - Murr, Andreas E. A1 - Stoetzer, Lukas F. A1 - Kayser, Mark A. ED - Schoen, Harald ED - Weßels, Bernhard T1 - Bürger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall T2 - Wahlen und Wähler N2 - Wie viele Wahlkreise gewinnt welche Partei bei der Bundestagswahl? Diese Frage war im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 trotz des deutschen Mischwahlsystems unter Fachleuten wie auch einer breiteren Öffentlichkeit von besonderem Interesse. Diesem Bedarf an Vorhersagen bedient in jüngerer Zeit eine zunehmende Zahl von Prognosemodellen, die sich jedoch fast ausschließlich auf die Zweitstimme abzielen. Für Wahlkreise gibt es nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern auch in reinen Mehrheitswahlsystemen, kaum relevante Umfragen. Wir führten daher eine Wahlerwartungsumfrage durch, um den Wahlausgang in jedem einzelnen Bundestagswahlkreis zu prognostizieren. Wir nennen unseren Ansatz Bürger:innenprognose, weil er auf den Erwartungen der Bürger:innen über das Wahlverhalten ihrer Mitbürger:innen beruht und nicht auf deren selbstberichteten Wahlabsichten. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir unsere Bürger:innenprognose vor, evaluieren ihre Genauigkeit und vergleichen sie mit anderen Ansätzen zur Wahlprognose. Y1 - 2024 SN - 9783658426934 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-42694-1_15 SP - 383 EP - 411 PB - Springer VS CY - Wiesbaden ER -