TY - CHAP A1 - Shikano, Susumu A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Schübel, Thomas A1 - Herrmann, Michael A1 - Selb, Peter ED - Linhart, Eric ED - Kittel, Bernhard ED - Bächtiger, André T1 - Eine empirische Schätzmethode für Valenz-Issues auf der Basis der Kandidatenbeurteilung am Beispiel der Konstanzer Oberbürgermeisterwahl 2012 T2 - Jahrbuch für Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie N2 - Bei der Entwicklung der räumlichen Modelle des Parteienwettbewerbs spielt die Valenz eine wichtige Rolle. Trotz der theoretischen Relevanz bleibt die Mess- und Schätzmethode der Valenz unterentwickelt. Angesichts dieser Forschungslücke schlägt dieser Beitrag ein statistisches Modell vor, das die gleichzeitige Schätzung der Kandidatenpositionen und der Valenz ermöglicht. Ein wichtiger Vorzug dieses Modells liegt darin, dass man nur die Kandidatenbeurteilungen per Skalometer benötigt, der in den meisten Umfragedaten verfügbar ist. Dieses Modell wird auf Daten angewendet, die in Rahmen der Konstanzer Oberbürgermeisterwahl 2012 erhoben wurden. Y1 - 2014 SN - 978-3-658-05007-8 SN - 978-3-658-05008-5 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-05008-5_4 SP - 113 EP - 131 PB - Springer CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Herrmann, Michael A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Selb, Peter T1 - Determining the effect of strategic voting on election results JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A) N2 - Speculations about whether strategic voting made a difference to the outcome of an election regularly whip up the passions of pundits, party strategists, electoral reformers and scholars alike. Yet, research on strategic voting's political effect has been hampered by the scarcity of data on district level party preferences. We propose the use of Bayesian small area estimation to predict district level preferences from just a handful of survey responses per district and comparing these predictions against election results to estimate how many voters switched sides in each district. We apply the approach to estimate how many seats changed hands as a result of strategic voting at the 1997 and 2001 UK general elections. Despite similar rates of strategic voting in both elections, the number of seats that were affected was markedly greater in 1997. Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats turn out to win the most seats because of strategic voting. We also estimate how many votes went in the ‘wrong’ direction—away from otherwise viable candidates. We validate our results by using journalistic sources and compare them with previous published estimates. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12130 VL - 179 IS - 2 SP - 583 EP - 605 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Selb, Peter A1 - Herrmann, Michael A1 - Munzert, Simon A1 - Schübel, Thomas A1 - Shikano, Susumu T1 - Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls JF - International Journal of Forecasting N2 - We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters’ candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election returns, and redistributing the votes for eliminated competitors according to their supporters’ lower-order preferences among the viable alternatives in round two. We argue that the approach is likely to outperform standard pre-election surveys, due to its better coverage and reduced measurement error, and the possibility of correcting for sample selection. We set out the practical details of the method and demonstrate its usefulness by employing a recent German mayoral election as an empirical case. Thirteen candidates were competing in the first round, while there were six candidates in the decisive second round. The runoff result was forecast two weeks in advance with an average absolute error of less than one percentage point. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001 VL - 29 IS - 4 SP - 541 EP - 547 ER -