TY - JOUR A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Acemoglu, Daron A1 - Bai, Xuemei A1 - Edwards, Paul N. A1 - Hintz, Marie Josefine A1 - Kaack, Lynn A1 - Kilkis, Siir A1 - Kunkel, Stefanie A1 - Luers, Amy A1 - Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola A1 - Rejeski, Dave A1 - Renn, Jürgen A1 - Rolnick, David A1 - Rosol, Christoph A1 - Russ, Daniela A1 - Turnbull, Thomas A1 - Verdolini, Elena A1 - Wagner, Felix A1 - Wilson, Charlie A1 - Zekar, Aicha A1 - Zumwald, Marius T1 - Digitalization and the Anthropocene JF - Annual Review of Environment and Resources N2 - Great claims have been made about the benefits of dematerialization in a digital service economy. However, digitalization has historically increased environmental impacts at local and planetary scales, affecting labor markets, resource use, governance, and power relationships. Here we study the past, present, and future of digitalization through the lens of three interdependent elements of the Anthropocene: (a) planetary boundaries and stability, (b) equity within and between countries, and (c) human agency and governance, mediated via (i) increasing resource efficiency, (ii) accelerating consumption and scale effects, (iii) expanding political and economic control, and (iv) deteriorating social cohesion. While direct environmental impacts matter, the indirect and systemic effects of digitalization are more profoundly reshaping the relationship between humans, technosphere and planet. We develop three scenarios: planetary instability, green but inhumane, and deliberate for the good. We conclude with identifying leverage points that shift human–digital–Earth interactions toward sustainability. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-100056 VL - 47 SP - 479 EP - 509 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola A1 - Wagner, Felix A1 - Nachtigall, Florian A1 - Hu, Jiawei A1 - Brüser, Geza Boi A1 - Zumwald, Marius A1 - Biljecki, Filip A1 - Heeren, Niko A1 - Kaack, Lynn A1 - Pichler, Peter-Paul A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - EUBUCCO v0.1: European building stock characteristics in a common and open database for 200+ million individual buildings JF - Scientific Data N2 - Building stock management is becoming a global societal and political issue, inter alia because of growing sustainability concerns. Comprehensive and openly accessible building stock data can enable impactful research exploring the most effective policy options. In Europe, efforts from citizen and governments generated numerous relevant datasets but these are fragmented and heterogeneous, thus hindering their usability. Here, we present EUBUCCO v0.1, a database of individual building footprints for ~202 million buildings across the 27 European Union countries and Switzerland. Three main attributes – building height, construction year and type – are included for respectively 73%, 24% and 46% of the buildings. We identify, collect and harmonize 50 open government datasets and OpenStreetMap, and perform extensive validation analyses to assess the quality, consistency and completeness of the data in every country. EUBUCCO v0.1 provides the basis for high-resolution urban sustainability studies across scales – continental, comparative or local studies – using a centralized source and is relevant for a variety of use cases, e.g., for energy system analysis or natural hazard risk assessments. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02040-2 VL - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Jochem, Patrick A1 - Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Transport: A roadblock to climate change mitigation? JF - Science (Policy Forum) Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac8033 SN - 0036-8075 VL - 350 IS - 6263 SP - 912 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Plevin, Richard A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Reconciling top-down and bottom-up modelling on future bioenergy deployment JF - Nature Climate Change Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1416 N1 - Free online Access / Freier online Zugriff: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/edenh/publications-1/nclimate_Reconcilingtopdownandbottomupmodellingonfuturebioenergydeployment.pdf VL - 2 IS - 4 SP - 320 EP - 327 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - McGlynn, Emily A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Climate policies for road transport revisited (I): Evaluation of the current framework. JF - Energy Policy Y1 - 2011 VL - 39 IS - 5 SP - 2396 EP - 2406 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - McGlynn, Emily T1 - CITIES: Car industry, road transport and an international emission trading scheme - policy options. A report commissioned by BMW Y1 - 2010 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baiocchi, Giovanni A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - A spatial typology of human settlements and their CO2 emissions in England JF - Global Environmental Change Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.06.001 N1 - Available as e-publication in your Hertie Library. Als elektronische Ausgabe in der Hertie Bibliothek verfügbar. VL - 34 SP - 13 EP - 21 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Minx, Jan C. A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Agoston, Peter A1 - al., et. T1 - Urban infrastructure choices structure climate solutions JF - Nature Climate Change N2 - Cities are becoming increasingly important in combatting climate change, but their overall role in global solution pathways remains unclear. Here we suggest structuring urban climate solutions along the use of existing and newly built infrastructures, providing estimates of the mitigation potential. KW - Climate-change mitigation KW - Economics KW - Engineering Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3169 SN - 1758-678X VL - 6 SP - 1054 EP - 1056 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Smith, Pete A1 - Davis, Steven J. A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions JF - Nature Climate Change N2 - To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2870 VL - 6 SP - 42 EP - 50 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - Closing the Emission Price Gap JF - Global Environmental Change N2 - Even without internationally concerted action on climate change mitigation, there are important incentives for countries to put a price on their domestic emissions, including public finance considerations, internalizing the climate impacts of their own emissions, and co-benefits, such as clean air or energy security. Whereas these arguments have been mostly discussed in separate strands of literature, this article carries out a synthesis that exemplifies how policies to put a price on emissions can be conceptualized in a multi-objective framework. Despite considerable uncertainty, empirical evidence suggests that different countries may face quite different incentives for emission pricing. For instance, avoided climate damages and co-benefits of reduced air pollution appear to be the main motivation for emission pricing in China, while for the US generating public revenue dominates and for the EU all three motivations are of intermediate importance. We finally argue that such unilateral incentives could form the basis for incremental progress in international climate negotiations toward a realistic climate treaty based on national interest and differentiated emission pricing and describe how such an agreement could be put into practice. KW - Unilateral incentives KW - Co-benefits KW - Hybrid climate agreement Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.003 VL - 31 SP - 132 EP - 143 PB - Elsevier B.V. CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Brunner, Steffen A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - Climate Policies for road transport revisited (II): Closing the policy gap with cap-and-trade JF - Energy Policy Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.053 SN - 1873-6777 VL - 39 IS - 4 SP - 2100 EP - 2110 PB - Elsevier CY - Mexico ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lehmann, Paul A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich A1 - Friedrichsen, Nele A1 - Heuson, Clemens A1 - Hirth, Lion A1 - Pietzcker, Robert T1 - Carbon lock-out: Advancing renewable energy policy in Europe JF - Energies N2 - As part of its climate strategy, the EU aims at increasing the share of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E) in overall electricity generation. Attaining this target poses a considerable challenge as the electricity sector is “locked” into a carbon-intensive system, which hampers the adoption of RES-E technologies. Electricity generation, transmission and distribution grids as well as storage and demand response are subject to important path dependences, which put existing, non-renewable energy sources at an advantage. This paper examines how an EU framework for RES-E support policies should be designed to facilitate a carbon lock-out. For this purpose, we specify the major technological, economic and institutional barriers to RES-E. For each of the barriers, a policy review is carried out which assesses the performance of existing policy instruments and identifies needs for reform. The review reveals several shortcomings: while policies targeting generation are widely in place, measures to address barriers associated with electricity grids, storage and demand are still in their infancy and have to be extended. Moreover, the implementation of policies has been fragmented across EU Member States. In this respect, national policies should be embedded into an integrated EU-wide planning of the RES-E system with overarching energy scenarios and partially harmonized policy rules. KW - carbon lock-in KW - demand management KW - electricity KW - energy policy KW - feed-in tariff KW - electricity generation KW - grids KW - renewable energy sources KW - storage Y1 - 2012 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-22972 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/en5020323 SN - 1996-1073 VL - 5 IS - 2 SP - 323 EP - 354 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Khanna, Tarun A1 - Baiocchi, Giovanni A1 - Callaghan, Max W. A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Bogdan Guias, Horia A1 - Haddaway, Neal A1 - Hirth, Lion A1 - Javaid, Aneeque A1 - Koch, Nicolas A1 - Laukemper, Sonja A1 - Loeschel, Andreas A1 - Del Mar Zamora, Maria A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Reducing carbon emissions of households through monetary incentives and behavioral interventions: a meta-analysis N2 - Despite the importance of evaluating all mitigation options so as to inform policy decisions addressing climate change, a systematic analysis of household-scale interventions to reduce carbon emissions is missing. Here, we address this gap through a state-of-the-art machine-learning assisted meta-analysis to comparatively assess the effectiveness of a range of monetary and behavioral interventions in energy demand of residential buildings. We identify 122 studies and extract 360 effect sizes representing trials on 1.2 million households in 25 countries. We find that all the studied interventions reduce energy consumption of households. Our meta-regression evidences that monetary incentives are on an average more effective than behavioral interventions, but deploying the right combinations of interventions together can increase overall effectiveness. We estimate global cumulative emissions reduction of 8.64 Gt CO2 by 2040, though deploying the most effective packages and interventions could result in greater reduction. While modest, this potential should be viewed in conjunction with the need for de-risking mitigation with energy demand reductions and realizing substantial co-benefits.  Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-124386/v1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kaack, Lynn A1 - Rolnick, David A1 - Donti, Priya L. A1 - Kochanski, Kelly A1 - Lacoste, Alexandre A1 - Sankaran, Kris A1 - Ross, Andrew S. A1 - Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola A1 - Jaques, Natasha A1 - Waldman-Brown, Anna A1 - Luccioni, Alexandra S. A1 - Maharaj, Tegan A1 - Sherwin, Evan D. A1 - Mukkavilli, Karthik A1 - Kording, Konrad P. A1 - Gomes, Carla P. A1 - Ng, Andrew Y. A1 - Hassabis, Demis A1 - Platt, John C. A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Chayes, Jennifer A1 - Bengio, Yoshua T1 - Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning JF - ACM Computing Surveys N2 - Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3485128 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1145/3485128 VL - 55 IS - 2 SP - 1 EP - 96 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola A1 - Hans, Nicolai A1 - Kaack, Lynn A1 - Zumwald, Marius A1 - Andrieux, François A1 - de Barros Soares, Daniel A1 - Lohrey, Steffen A1 - Pichler, Peter-Paul A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - Learning from urban form to predict building heights JF - Plos one N2 - Understanding cities as complex systems, sustainable urban planning depends on reliable high-resolution data, for example of the building stock to upscale region-wide retrofit policies. For some cities and regions, these data exist in detailed 3D models based on real-world measurements. However, they are still expensive to build and maintain, a significant challenge, especially for small and medium-sized cities that are home to the majority of the European population. New methods are needed to estimate relevant building stock characteristics reliably and cost-effectively. Here, we present a machine learning based method for predicting building heights, which is based only on open-access geospatial data on urban form, such as building footprints and street networks. The method allows to predict building heights for regions where no dedicated 3D models exist currently. We train our model using building data from four European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Germany) and find that the morphology of the urban fabric surrounding a given building is highly predictive of the height of the building. A test on the German state of Brandenburg shows that our model predicts building heights with an average error well below the typical floor height (about 2.5 m), without having access to training data from Germany. Furthermore, we show that even a small amount of local height data obtained by citizens substantially improves the prediction accuracy. Our results illustrate the possibility of predicting missing data on urban infrastructure; they also underline the value of open government data and volunteered geographic information for scientific applications, such as contextual but scalable strategies to mitigate climate change. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242010 VL - 15 IS - 12 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Khanna, Tarun A1 - Baiocchi, Giovanni A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Guias, Horia A1 - Haddaway, Neal R. A1 - Hirth, Lion A1 - Javaid, Aneeque A1 - Koch, Nicolas A1 - Laukemper, Sonja A1 - Löschel, Andreas A1 - del Mar Zamora Dominguez, Maria A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - A multi-country meta-analysis on the role of behavioural change in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in residential buildings JF - Nature Energy N2 - Despite the importance of evaluating all mitigation options to inform policy decisions addressing climate change, a comprehensive analysis of household-scale interventions and their emissions reduction potential is missing. Here, we address this gap for interventions aimed at changing individual households’ use of existing equipment, such as monetary incentives or feedback. We have performed a machine learning-assisted systematic review and meta-analysis to comparatively assess the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing energy demand in residential buildings. We extracted 360 individual effect sizes from 122 studies representing trials in 25 countries. Our meta-regression confirms that both monetary and non-monetary interventions reduce the energy consumption of households, but monetary incentives, of the sizes reported in the literature, tend to show on average a more pronounced effect. Deploying the right combinations of interventions increases the overall effectiveness. We have estimated a global carbon emissions reduction potential of 0.35 GtCO2 yr−1, although deploying the most effective packages of interventions could result in greater reduction. While modest, this potential should be viewed in conjunction with the need for de-risking mitigation pathways with energy-demand reductions. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00866-x VL - 6 SP - 925 EP - 932 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kaack, Lynn A1 - Donti, Priya L. A1 - Strubell, Emma A1 - Kamiya, George A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Rolnick, David T1 - Aligning artificial intelligence with climate change mitigation JF - Nature Climate Change N2 - There is great interest in how the growth of artificial intelligence and machine learning may affect global GHG emissions. However, such emissions impacts remain uncertain, owing in part to the diverse mechanisms through which they occur, posing difficulties for measurement and forecasting. Here we introduce a systematic framework for describing the effects of machine learning (ML) on GHG emissions, encompassing three categories: computing-related impacts, immediate impacts of applying ML and system-level impacts. Using this framework, we identify priorities for impact assessment and scenario analysis, and suggest policy levers for better understanding and shaping the effects of ML on climate change mitigation. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01377-7 VL - 12 SP - 518 EP - 527 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Minx, Jan C. A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Medinger, Verena A1 - Ziegler, Tina T1 - Developing a pragmatic approach to assess urban metabolism in Europe: A Report to the European Environment Agency BT - Final Report to the European Environment Agency Project Reference: EEA/NSV/09/001 Y1 - 2011 N1 - Free online Access / Freier online Zugriff: http://ideas.climatecon.tu-berlin.de/documents/wpaper/CLIMATECON-2011-01.pdf PB - TU Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - McGlynn, Emily A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - CITIES: Car Industry, Road Transport and an international Emission Trading Scheme. Policy options Y1 - 2010 N1 - Free online Access / Freier online Zugriff: http://ideas.climatecon.tu-berlin.de/documents/reports/CITIES%20REPORT.pdf ER -