TY - RPRT A1 - Adolphsen, Ole A1 - Feist, Marian A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Geden, Oliver A1 - Görlach, Benjamin A1 - Jakob, Michael T1 - Deutschlands Klimaaußenpolitik: Kontext – Rückschau – Weiterentwicklung KW - Centre for Sustainability Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/analyse-deutschlands-klimaaussenpolitik-kontext-rueckschau-weiterentwicklung/ U6 - https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2024.017 PB - Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne CY - Potsdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Edenhofer, Jacob A1 - Flachsland, Christian T1 - Introducing the Climate Politics Framework (CPF): An application to German climate policy N2 - This paper introduces the Climate Politics Framework (CPF), a novel and comprehensive approach to analyzing climate policymaking. The CPF sets out four fundamental problems—pervasive collective action challenges, distributional dynamics, long-term policy, and deep uncertainty—that shape both elite and mass-level climate politics. These, in turn, influence the stringency and design of climate policy platforms, which consist of institutions, policy instruments as well as framing and rhetoric. These platforms can both cause emissions reductions—the main dependent variable of interest—and address strategic challenges in the climate policy process (e.g. agenda-setting, coordination, compensation, and commitment), thereby altering political dynamics over time. Applying the CPF to Germany, based on elite interviews and a literature review, we analyze key episodes and structural features of German climate policy over the past four decades. The CPF offers both an academic contribution—by synthesizing disparate strands of the climate politics literature—and, with a view to future applications, a practical tool for policymakers and stakeholders to diagnose political barriers and identify pathways for effective climate policymaking. Y1 - 2025 U6 - https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/qkbj3_v1 PB - Center for Open Science ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Feist, Marian A1 - Kühner, Ann-Kathrin A1 - Flachsland, Christian T1 - Selling CBAM: Diplomacy for the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Y1 - 2024 UR - https://ariadneprojekt.de/en/publication/analysis-selling-cbam-diplomacy-for-the-european-unions-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2024.010 PB - Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne CY - Potsdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kühner, Ann-Kathrin A1 - Jakob, Michael A1 - Flachsland, Christian T1 - German stakeholder perceptions of an EU carbon border adjustment mechanism N2 - The European Commission has proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that would apply the carbon price prevailing in the EU emissions trading system to import-related emissions. We conducted a survey to study perceptions of an EU CBAM among German key stakeholders from industry, civil society, and research in July 2021. We find that substantial support for CBAM exists as well as the expectation that the mechanism will eventually be introduced. We identified divergent views on key design options among stakeholder groups. Stakeholders from industry generally favour the continuation of free allocation of emissions allowances, rebates for exporters from the EU, coverage of only scope 1 emissions, and use of revenues for domestic spending. Stakeholders from civil society prefer phasing out free allocation, coverage only of imports, an emissions scope including all indirect emissions, exempting low-income countries and countries that do implement non-price-based climate policies, and the use of revenues to finance green transformation in low-income countries. Respondents from research would generally rather see free allocation being phased out, emissions coverage of scope 1 and 2, exemptions for low-income countries and countries that do implement non-price-based policies with comparable effects in relevant sectors and a transfer of revenues to support clean technologies in low-income countries and green technologies in the EU. Our survey design allows us to identify three cross-stakeholder group clusters, one containing stakeholders who are comparably more hesitant towards CBAM, a second one with respondents most in favour of introducing CBAM, as well as a 'middle ground' cluster which contains views that are often in between the other two. We also compare the survey responses to the design of the Commission's CBAM proposal to identify the most likely points of political disagreement. KW - Centre for Sustainability Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9f23 VL - 17 PB - Environmental Research Letters ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ohlendorf, Nils A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Nemet, Gregory F. A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph T1 - Carbon price floors and low-carbon investment: A survey of German firms JF - Energy Policy N2 - Introducing a price floor in emissions trading schemes (ETS) theoretically stabilizes expectations on future carbon prices and thus fosters low-carbon investment. Yet, ex post evidence on high carbon prices is scant and the relevance of carbon pricing for investment decisions is frequently contested. We provide empirical ex ante evidence on how a price floor in the EU ETS would impact the size and portfolio of energy firms’ investments. Analyzing survey responses of high-level managers in 113 German energy and industry companies, we find that the level of the price floor is crucial. A low price floor trajectory only provides insurance against downward price fluctuations and would leave investments largely unchanged except for industries receiving electricity price compensation, which reduce their investments. A high floor, significantly increasing the price level beyond current expectations, leads to higher investment by the majority of firms, especially by green firms, while investment in fossil energy would partially be abolished. Our studies implies that price floors can be important design components of ETS. However, policymakers need to ensure that they are at sufficiently high levels to affect investment decisions in a meaningful way. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113187 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 169 IS - 113187 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kornek, Ulrike A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Kardish, Chris A1 - Levi, Sebastian A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - What is important for achieving 2 °C? UNFCCC and IPCC expert perceptions on obstacles and response options for climate change mitigation JF - Environmental Research Letters N2 - Global mitigation efforts remain insufficient to limit the global temperature increase to well below 2 °C. While a growing academic literature analyzes this problem, perceptions of which obstacles inhibit goal attainment and which responses might be most effective seem to differ widely. This makes prioritization and agreement on the way forward difficult. To inform prioritization in global climate policy and research agendas, we present quantitative data on how 917 experts from the IPCC and the UNFCCC perceive the importance of different obstacles and response options for achieving 2 °C. On average, respondents consider opposition from special interest groups the most important obstacle and technological R&D the most important response. Our survey also finds that the majority of experts perceives a wide range of issues as important, supporting an agenda that is inclusive in terms of coverage. Average importance ratings differ between experts from the Global North and South, suggesting that balanced representation in global fora and regionally differentiated agendas are important. In particular, opposition from special interest groups is a top priority among experts from North America, Europe and Oceania. Investigating the drivers of individual importance ratings, we find little difference between experts from the IPCC and the UNFCCC, while expert's perceptions correlate with their academic training and their national scientific, regulatory, and financial contexts. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6394 VL - 15 SP - 1 EP - 10 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dubash, Navroz K. A1 - Pillai, Aditya Valiathan A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Harrison, Kathyrn A1 - Hochstetler, Kathryn A1 - Lockwood, Matthew A1 - MacNeil, Robert A1 - Mildenberger, Matto A1 - Paterson, Matthew A1 - Teng, Fei A1 - Tyler, Emily T1 - National climate institutions complement targets and policies JF - Science N2 - Discussions about climate mitigation tend to focus on the ambition of emission reduction targets or the prevalence, design, and stringency of climate policies. However, targets are more likely to translate to near-term action when backed by institutional machinery that guides policy development and implementation. Institutions also mediate the political interests that are often barriers to implementing targets and policies. Yet the study of domestic climate institutions is in its infancy, compared with the study of targets and policies. Existing governance literatures document the spread of climate laws (1, 2) and how climate policy-making depends on domestic political institutions (3–5). Yet these literatures shed less light on how states organize themselves internally to address climate change. To address this question, drawing on empirical case material summarized in table S1, we propose a systematic framework for the study of climate institutions. We lay out definitional categories for climate institutions, analyze how states address three core climate governance challenges—coordination, building consensus, and strategy development—and draw attention to how institutions and national political contexts influence and shape each other. Acontextual “best practice” notions of climate institutions are less useful than an understanding of how institutions evolve over time through interaction with national politics. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm1157 VL - 374 IS - 6568 SP - 690 EP - 693 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Levi, Sebastian A1 - Wolf, Ingo A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Koch, Nicolas A1 - Koller, Florian A1 - Edmondson, Duncan T1 - Klimaschutz und Verkehr: Zielerreichung nur mit unbequemen Maßnahmen möglich. Ariadne-Analyse N2 - Die Klimaschutzziele für das Jahr 2030 sind im Verkehrssektor nur mit starken zusätzlichen Treibhausgasreduktionen erreichbar. Die beschlossenen Maßnahmen können laut gegenwärtigen Projektionen nur einen Bruchteil jener Emissionen reduzieren, welche für die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele im Verkehrssektor notwendig wären. Um die politische Umsetzbarkeit zusätzlicher Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu erörtern, analysieren wir die Emissionsminderungswirkung und die Bevölkerungsakzeptanz von 14 möglichen Maßnahmen, basierend auf Drittstudien und eigenen Erhebungen. Wir zeigen, dass die wirkungsstärksten Maßnahmen tendenziell eine geringe Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung erfahren, wobei die Lastenverteilung keinen sichtbaren Einfluss auf die Bevölkerungsakzeptanz hat. Maßnahmen, die in der Bevölkerung mehrheitlich unterstützt werden, führen nach gegenwärtigen Projektionen nur zu geringen Treibhausgasreduktionen, so dass die Erreichung der Klimaziele 2030 ohne kontroverse Maßnahmen wie höhere CO2-Preise oder einer flächendeckenden Maut unwahrscheinlich ist. Um die Befürwortung von gegenwärtig kontroversen Maßnahmen zu erhöhen, ist es notwendig, sichtbare Rückverteilungsmechanismen zu etablieren, Maßnahmen durch gruppenspezifische Kommunikation zu begleiten und die Einführung von Politikinstrumenten strategisch zu sequenzieren. KW - Centre for Sustainability Y1 - 2021 UR - https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/klimaschutz-und-verkehr-zielerreichung-nur-mit-unbequemen-massnahmen-moeglich/ ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - aus dem Moore, Nils A1 - Müller, Thorsten A1 - Kemmerzell, Jörg A1 - Edmondson, Duncan A1 - Görlach, Benjamin A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Knodt, Michèle A1 - Knopf, Brigitte A1 - Levi, Sebastian A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pahle, Michael T1 - Wie die Governance der deutschen Klimapolitik gestärkt werden kann. Ariadne-Kurzdossier. N2 - Von der Sektorkopplung bis zum Wasserstoff, von der Umsetzung des Klimaschutzgesetzes bis hin zum europäischen Green Deal: Um Klimaneutralität zu erreichen, braucht es eine koordinierte und effektive Politiksteuerung über einzelne Ressorts hinweg. Klimapolitik ist Querschnittsaufgabe, denn von der Stromerzeugung über Industrie, Gebäude und Verkehr bis hin zur Landwirtschaft müssen alle Sektoren mit hohem Tempo treibhausgasneutral werden. Fachleute des vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung BMBF geförderten Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne haben zentrale Probleme der staatlichen Steuerung deutscher Klimapolitik untersucht und Lösungsoptionen vorgelegt. KW - Centre for Sustainability Y1 - 2021 UR - https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2021/11/Ariadne-Kurzdossier_Governance_November2021.pdf ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Levi, Sebastian T1 - Das deutsche Klimaschutzgesetz: Möglichkeiten einer sektorübergreifenden Klimagovernance. Ariadne-Hintergrund. N2 - Trotz des erheblichen Ausbaus der erneuerbaren Energien in der Vergangenheit hat Deutschland Schwierigkeiten, seine nationalen Klimaschutzziele zu erfüllen. Als Reaktion darauf hat der Deutsche Bundestag im Jahr 2019 ein nationales Klimaschutzgesetz (KSG) verabschiedet. In diesem Bericht analysieren wir die Governance der deutschen Klimapolitik vor der Verabschiedung des KSG, die wichtigsten Gestaltungselemente des KSG und das Potenzial des KSG, die Integration der deutschen Klimagovernance zu verbessern. Dabei stellen wir fest, dass die deutsche Klimagovernance vor dem KSG nur mäßig integriert war. Mit der Einführung des KSG und der dort spezifizierten Sektorziele wird Klimaschutz jedoch zu einem prioritären Politikziel in allen wirtschaftlichen Sektoren. Darüber hinaus können die im KSG beschlossenen Monitorings- und Nachsteuerungs-Bestimmungen dazu führen, dass sektorspezifische Maßnahmen über die Zeit immer besser mit den nationalen Klimaschutz-Zielen abgestimmt werden. Insgesamt fördert das KSG hierbei jedoch eher eine multisektorale als eine sektorübergreifende Klimagovernance und versäumt es dabei, die Koordinierung zwischen Sektoren und Ministerien zu stärken. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2021/11/Ariadne-Hintergrund_Klimaschutzgesetz_November2021.pdf ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Levi, Sebastian T1 - Germany’s Federal Climate Change Act JF - Environmental Politics N2 - Despite significant renewable energy expansion in the past, Germany has encountered difficulties in meeting its national greenhouse gas emission targets. In response, Germany adopted the Federal Climate Change Act (CCA) in 2019. We analyze the state of climate governance in Germany before the CCA, the main design elements of the CCA, and assess the potential of the CCA to change German climate governance. Drawing on policy integration theory and 26 semi-structured interviews with senior policymakers and stakeholders, we find that German climate governance before the CCA was only moderately integrated. The sectoral emission targets legislated by the CCA make climate change mitigation a priority sector goal in non-energy sectors, and CCA provisions for monitoring, assessing and implementing policy reforms promise to enhance alignment of instruments with targets over time. Overall, the CCA advances a multi- rather than cross-sector climate governance, failing to advance coordination across sectors and ministries. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2021.1980288 VL - 30 IS - sup1 SP - 118 EP - 140 ER -