TY - JOUR A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - The Diffusion of Inclusion: An Open-Polity Model of Ethnic Powersharing JF - Comparative Political Studies N2 - While there is a growing consensus that ethnic inclusion produces peace, less is known about what causes transitions to power sharing between ethnic groups in central governments in multiethnic states. The few studies that have addressed this question have proposed explanations stressing exclusively domestic factors. Yet, power sharing is spatially clustered, which suggests that diffusion may be at play. Inspired by studies of democratic diffusion, we study the spread of inclusive policies with an “open-polity model” that explicitly traces diffusion from inclusion in other states. Our findings indicate that the relevant diffusion processes operate primarily at the level of world regions rather than globally or between territorial neighbors. Thus, the more inclusive the region, the more likely a shift to power sharing becomes. Shifts away from inclusion to dominance are less common since World War II, but they are more likely in regional settings characterized by ethnic exclusion. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414017740602 VL - 51 IS - 10 SP - 1279 EP - 1313 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Conflict: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons? JF - Journal of Peace Research N2 - Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on ‘the waning of ethnic war’. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments’ accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping. KW - civil war, decline of war, ethnic conflict, ethnic inclusion, group rights, power sharing Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316684191 SN - 0022-3433 VL - 52 IS - 2 SP - 262 EP - 274 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Inequalities between Ethnic Groups, Conflict, and Political Organizations JF - Ethnopolitics N2 - We highlight that ethnic conflicts are typically about ‘nationality problems’ of self-rule, and thus best understood as ethno-nationalist conflicts that are driven by political and economic inequalities between groups. Recent, large-scale data collection and analysis find systematic evidence for such a link, but what is needed is a firmer understanding of the precise causal mechanisms, including ethnic mobilization processes through political organizations. We articulate a research project along these lines. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2016.1235342 SN - 1744-9065 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 21 EP - 27 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian A1 - Hunziker, Philipp A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik T1 - Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict JF - American Journal of Political Science N2 - Postulating grievance‐based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions to include or exclude could be motivated by the anticipation of conflict. We counter this threat to inference by articulating a causal pathway that explains ethnic groups' access to power independently of conflict. Focusing on postcolonial states, we exploit differences in colonial empires' strategies of rule to model which ethnic groups were represented in government at the time of independence. This identification strategy allows estimating the exogenous effect of inclusiveness on conflict. We find that previous studies have tended to understate the conflict‐dampening impact of political inclusion. This finding suggests that grievances have been prematurely dismissed from conventional explanations of conflict, and that policy makers should consider conflict resolution methods based on power sharing and group rights. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12236 SN - 0092-5853 VL - 60 IS - 4 SP - 882 EP - 898 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Territorial Economy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late? JF - American Political Science Review N2 - This article evaluates the effect of territorial autonomy on the outbreak of internal conflict by analyzing ethnic groups around the world since WWII. Shedding new light on an ongoing debate, we argue that the critics have overstated the case against autonomy policies. Our evidence indicates that decentralization has a significant conflict-preventing effect where there is no prior conflict history. In postconflict settings, however, granting autonomy can still be helpful in combination with central power sharing arrangements. Yet, on its own, postconflict autonomy concessions may be too little, too late. Accounting for endogeneity, we also instrument for autonomy in postcolonial states by exploiting that French, as opposed to British, colonial rule rarely relied on decentralized governance. This identification strategy suggests that naïve analysis tends to underestimate the pacifying influence of decentralization. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055415000118 SN - 0003-0554 VL - 109 IS - 2 SP - 354 EP - 370 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede A1 - Salehyan, Idean A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War JF - Inernational Organization N2 - A series of studies has shown that civil wars are caused not only by factors inside countries, but also by effects operating across state borders. Whereas a first wave of quantitative studies demonstrated that such effects make the “closed-polity” assumption untenable, more recently researchers have identified particular causal mechanisms driving conflict. Despite these recent advances, a central puzzle remains unresolved, namely why ethnic groups that at least in theory could count on support from large transborder ethnic kin (TEK) groups often have remained surprisingly peaceful, such as the stranded Russian populations in the “near abroad.” We propose a theoretical framework that extends the analysis from the primary dyad between the incumbent and the challenger group by adding a secondary dyad that pits the incumbent against the TEK group. We postulate a curvilinear effect of the TEK group's relative size on conflict onset. Using a new data set on transnational ethnic links, we find that that the risk of conflict increases within the middle range of the size spectrum, consistent with our main hypothesis. This means that large TEK groups have a conflict-dampening effect, provided that they control their own state. Excluded TEK groups, however, are not associated with lower conflict probabilities. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818313000064 VL - 67 IS - 2 SP - 389 EP - 410 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian A1 - Metternich, Nils W. A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede T1 - Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil Wars JF - World Politics N2 - Previous research has focused primarily on how ethnicity may trigger civil war, and its effect on conflict duration remains disputed. Rather than treating conflict as a direct consequence of ethnic cleavages, the authors argue that ethnicity per se does not affect civil war duration. Instead, its effect depends on its relationship to political institutions. They employ a dyadic approach that emphasizes the political context in which both government leaders and nonstate challengers can capitalize on the ascriptive nature of ethnicity. They show that although states can initially benefit from politicizing ethnic relations, once violent conflict breaks out, such policies may backfire on the government and make it difficult for incumbent governments to accept settlements that could terminate conflicts. Past policies of ethnic exclusion also benefit rebel organizations fighting the government, since the resulting grievances increase collective group solidarity and render individual fighters more cost tolerant. Using a new data set that codes the nexus between rebel organizations and ethnic groups, as well as information on ethnopolitical exclusion, the authors find considerable support for their propositions. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/S004388711100030X SN - 0043-8871 VL - 64 IS - 1 SP - 78 EP - 115 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian A1 - Weidmann, Nils B. A1 - Girardin, Luc A1 - Wimmer, Andreas A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik T1 - Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset JF - Conflict Management and Peace Science N2 - This article introduces GeoEPR, a geocoded version of the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset that charts politically relevant ethnic groups across space and time. We describe the dataset in detail, discuss its advantages and limitations, and use it in a replication of Cederman, Wimmer and Min’s (2010) study on the causes of ethno-nationalist conflict. We show that territorial conflicts are more likely to involve groups that settle far away from the capital city and close to the border, while these spatial variables have no effect for governmental conflicts. KW - ethnic conflict, ethnic groups, geographic information systems (GIS), group settlement patterns Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210393217 SN - 0738-8942 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 423 EP - 437 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bormann, Nils-Christian A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Gates, Scott A1 - Graham, Benjamin A.T. A1 - Hug, Simon A1 - Strom, Kaare A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Power Sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace JF - American Journal of Political Science Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12407 VL - 63 IS - 1 SP - 84 EP - 100 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian ED - Forsberg, Erika ED - Birnir, Jóhanna K. ED - Davenport, Christian T1 - Inequalities between Ethnic Groups, Conflict, and Political Organizations T2 - Ethnic Politics and Conflict/Violence: State of the Field and New Directions Y1 - 2017 N1 - ISBN 9781138742192 SP - 21 EP - 27 PB - Routledge CY - Milton Park, UK ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Girardin, Luc A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian ED - Huth, Paul K. ED - Wilkenfeld, Jonathan ED - Backer, David A. T1 - Exploring Inequality and Ethnic Conflict: EPR-ETH and GROWup T2 - Peace and Conflict 2014 Y1 - 2014 SN - 978-1-61205-436-0 SP - 74 EP - 87 PB - Paradigm Publishers CY - London ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik A1 - Hug, Simon A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian T1 - Sharing Power, Securing Peace? Ethnic Inclusion and Civil War. Y1 - 2022 UR - https://www.cambridge.org/de/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/sharing-power-securing-peace-ethnic-inclusion-and-civil-war?format=PB SN - 9781108418140 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wucherpfennig, Julian A1 - Cederman, Lars-Erik T1 - Pre-Colonial and Colonial Origins of Inclusive Peace JF - The Journal of Politics N2 - In a recent contribution to this journal, McAlexander (2020, hereafter McAlexander) seeks to re-analyze Wucherpfennig, Hunziker and Cederman (2016, hereafter WHC) who instrument the effect of ethnic group inclusion on civil conflict by exploiting differences in colonial governance between the French and the British empire. McAlexander proposes a research design that replaces the between-colony dimension of WHC’s comparison with a continuous measure of indirect rule that varies be-tween British colonies. We show that McAlexander’s study hardly poses a viable reanalysis because his approach is compromised by problems of ecological inference and post-treatment confounding, lead-ing to biased inference by design. We propose a more informative reanalysis, indicating that British colonialism built on suitable customary institutions, unlike the French empire. Although tentative, our analytical extension lends support to WHC’s original findings, most importantly that inclusion reduces the risk of post-colonial civil conflict. KW - Ethnic inclusion, civil conflict; colonialism, customary institutions, endogeneity Y1 - 2022 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-43555 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1086/719633 ER -