TY - RPRT A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Heintz-Martin, Valerie T1 - Fertility after separation: second births in higher order unions in Germany T2 - FamiliesAndSocieties working paper series 28 N2 - This paper uses recent data from the German family panel (pairfam) to examine the fertility behavior after separation. More specifically, we focus on the transition to the second child and compare the behavior of respondents in ongoing partnerships (couples who are still partnered with the mother/father of their first child) with those who have experienced family dissolution after the first birth. The investigation reveals strong gender differences in postseparation fertility behavior. We also find large regional differences. Eastern Germans had much lower second birth rates than western Germans. However, they were more prone than western Germans to have their second child with a parent who was not the father or the mother of their firstborn child. This result is in line with descriptive findings on the diversity of family structures in eastern Germany. KW - Birth spacing KW - Divorce KW - Fertility KW - Germany KW - Separation Y1 - 2015 UR - http://www.familiesandsocieties.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/WP28KreyenfeldHeintzMartin2015.pdf VL - 2015 IS - 28 PB - Stockholm University CY - Stockholm ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Economic uncertainty and fertility JF - Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie N2 - Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing "bourgeois conviction" that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990-2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty. KW - Fertility KW - Family KW - Unemployment KW - Economic uncertainty Y1 - 2015 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16760 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-015-0325-6 SN - 1861-891X N1 - This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11577-015-0325-6 VL - 67 IS - S1 SP - 59 EP - 80 PB - Springer Fachmedien CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Andersson, Gunnar A1 - Mika, Tatjana T1 - Welfare state context, female labour-market attachment and childbearing in Germany and Denmark JF - Journal of Population Research N2 - This study investigates the role of female labour-market attachment and earnings in childbearing progressions in two very different European contexts. By applying event-history techniques to German and Danish register data during 1981–2001, we demonstrate how female earnings relate to first, second and third birth propensities. Our study shows that female earnings are positively associated with first birth fertility in Denmark, while this is not the case in West Germany. We interpret our findings based on the fact that Danish social context and policy encourage women to establish themselves in the labour market before becoming mothers, while the German institutional context during the 1980s and 1990s was not geared towards encouraging maternal employment. For higher-order births, the results are less clearcut. For Denmark we find a slightly positive correlation between female earnings and second-birth fertility, while the association is somewhat negative for third-order births. In Germany, women tend to leave the labour market when becoming mothers. Non-employed mothers have elevated second and, in particular, third-birth rates. For the group of mothers who are employed, we find only a weak association between their earnings and higher-order fertility. KW - Female employment KW - Fertility KW - Welfare state context KW - Register data Y1 - 2014 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16723 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12546-014-9135-3 SN - 1835-9469 VL - 31 IS - 4 SP - 287 EP - 316 PB - Springer Netherlands ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Scholz, Rembrandt A1 - Peters, Frederik A1 - Wlosnewski, Ines T1 - Order specific fertility rates for Germany: Estimates from Perinatal Statistics for the period 2001-2008 JF - Comparative population studies (CPOS) N2 - Until 2008, Germany’s vital statistics did not include information on the biological order of each birth. This resulted in a dearth of important demographic indicators, such as the mean age at fi rst birth and the level of childlessness. Researchers have tried to fill this gap by generating order-specifi c birth rates from survey data, and by combining survey data with vital statistics. This paper takes a different approach by using Perinatal Statistics to generate birth order-specific fertility rates for the period 2001 to 2008. Perinatal Statistics includes information on births that took place in German hospitals. Out-of-hospital births, which account for about 2 % of all births, are not included in the Perinatal Statistics. In a sensitivity analysis, we show how robust our estimates are to the inclusion of out-of-hospital births. Our general assessment is that the Perinatal Statistics is a valuable source for generating order-specific fertility rates, regardless of whether out-of-hospital births are included. KW - Birth order KW - Fertility KW - Germany KW - Eastern and Western Germany KW - Perinatal Statistics Y1 - 2010 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9642 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4232/10.CPoS-2010-06en SN - 1869-8980 VL - 35 IS - 2 SP - 207 EP - 224 PB - Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Parity Specific Birth Rates for West Germany: An Attempt to Combine Survey Data and Vital Statistics JF - Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaften N2 - In this paper, we combine vital statistics and survey data to obtain parity specific birth rates for West Germany. Since vital statistics do not provide birth parity information, one is confined to using estimates. The robustness of these estimates is an issue, which is unfortunately only rarely addressed when fertility indicators for (West) Germany are reported. In order to check how reliable our results are, we estimate confidence intervals and compare them to results from survey data and estimations conducted by the German Statistical Office. Although our estimations show a similar trend, the magnitude of some fertility indicators differs substantially from the ones reported in other studies. However, estimations from other studies do not give a consistent picture of German fertility, either. KW - Germany KW - Fertility Y1 - 2002 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9838 SN - 0340-2398 VL - 27 IS - 3 SP - 327 EP - 357 PB - Leske + Budrich CY - Opladen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Time-squeeze, partner effect or self-selection?: An investigation into the positive effect of women's education on second birth risks in West Germany JF - Demographic Research N2 - This paper investigates the role of women’s education in the transition to the second child using data from the 1997 German micro-census. We begin our analysis with a simple model, which shows a positive effect of woman’s education on the transition rate to the second child for West German women. We argue that this effect is most likely confounded by various factors. Firstly, we assume that there is a time-squeeze effect, which increases the transition rate to the second child for more highly educated women. Secondly, titled as the partner hypothesis, we argue that more highly educated women often live with more highly educated partners who have the earning potential to afford a large family. Thirdly, titled as the selection hypothesis, we argue that the positive effect of women’s education can be attributed to a selection effect, i.e. familyoriented college graduates are more likely to select themselves into the group of women at risk of second birth. The empirical investigations particularly support the second and third hypotheses. After controlling for the partner’s characteristics and including unobserved heterogeneity factors, the positive effect of female education becomes strongly negative. KW - Education KW - Female employment KW - Fertility KW - Germany KW - Second births Y1 - 2002 UR - http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol7/2/7-2.pdf U6 - https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2002.7.2 VL - 7 SP - 15 EP - 48 PB - Max-Planck Institut für demografische Forschung CY - Rostock ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Crisis or adaptation – reconsidered: a comparison of East and West German fertility patterns in the first six years after the ‘Wende’ JF - European Journal of Population N2 - Like other Eastern Europeancountries, East Germany experienced a rapiddecline in period fertility rates after thefall of communism. This decline has beendiscussed along the lines of a ‘crisis’ andan ‘adaptation’ to western demographic patterns. The aim of this paper istwofold. Firstly, we discuss the factors whichfoster and hamper a convergence of fertilitybehaviour in East and West Germany. Secondly,we use data from the German micro-census toanalyse the fertility patterns of the cohortsborn 1961–1970. The main result of ourempirical analysis is that East Germans whowere still childless at the time of unificationare quicker to have their first child in thesubsequent years than comparable West Germans. However, regarding second parity births, thepattern reverses. Here, East Germans display alower transition rate than their counterpartsin the West. KW - Fertility KW - East Germany Y1 - 2003 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9775 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024992712815 SN - 0168-6577 N1 - Also published as Working Paper at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2002-032.pdf VL - 19 IS - 3 SP - 303 EP - 329 PB - Kluwer Academic Publishers CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Zabel, Cordula T1 - Female education and the second child: Great Britain and Western Germany compared JF - Schmollers Jahrbuch: Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften N2 - This paper compares the determinants of the transition to the second child in Western Germany and Great Britain, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). We test a number of explanations for the positive effect of educational attainment on second birth risks; this effect has been reported for both countries. Owing to differences in the welfare state context, we expect that the factors responsible for the positive education effect differ between the two countries. Our findings, however, provide only partial support for this expectation. KW - United Kingdom KW - Fertility Y1 - 2005 SN - 0342-1783 VL - 125 IS - 1 SP - 145 EP - 156 PB - Duncker und Humblot CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Uncertainties in female employment careers and the postponement of parenthood in Germany JF - European Sociological Review N2 - This paper investigates whether uncertainties in female employment careers result in a postponement of family formation. Data for this analysis comes from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which provides longitudinal information on economic uncertainty and fertility for the period 1984 to 2006. We employ objective measures of uncertainty (unemployment) as well as subjective measures (whether the respondent is worried about her economic situation, whether she is worried about the security of her job). We find little evidence that uncertainties in female employment careers generally lead to a postponement of parenthood. Hence, the relationship between economic uncertainty and first birth varies by level of education. While more highly educated postpone parenthood when subject to employment uncertainties, women with low levels of education often respond to these situations by becoming mothers. KW - Germany KW - Fertility Y1 - 2010 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-9661 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcp026 SN - 0266-7215 N1 - This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in European Sociological Review. The final authenticated version is available online at: DOI:10.1093/esr/jcp026 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 351 EP - 366 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Zeman, Krystof A1 - Burkimsher, Marion A1 - Jaschinski, Ina T1 - Fertility Data for German speaking countries: What is the potential? Where are the pitfalls? JF - Comparative Population Studies N2 - This paper provides an overview of fertility data for Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Particular attention is given to the availability of order-specific fertility data. The authors discuss the quality of data provided by the Statistical Offices, both birth registration data and censuses or microcensuses. In addition, they explore how social science surveys can be used to generate order-specific fertility indicators, and compare survey fertility estimates with estimates from vital statistics. Prior studies have shown that there is a 'family bias' in most surveys, with the fertility of younger cohorts being overstated, because respondents with young children are easier to reach by interviewers. The authors' assessment of various types of surveys from the three countries mostly supports this notion. The 'family bias' is most pronounced in family surveys in contrast to all-purpose surveys. Weighting data does not fully cure the 'family bias', which the authors attribute to the fact that the number of children is usually not considered a factor in calculating sample weights, as provided by the survey agencies and Statistical Offices. The confounding role of migration in the production of reliable and comparable fertility statistics is also discussed. KW - Fertility KW - Germany KW - Austria KW - Switzerland Y1 - 2011 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-8807 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4232/10.CPoS-2011-06en SN - 1869-8980 VL - 36 IS - 2-3 SP - 349 EP - 380 PB - Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung CY - Wiesbaden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Andersson, Gunnar A1 - Pailhé, Ariane T1 - Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe: Introduction JF - Demographic Research N2 - Background: Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this topic is still limited. Objective: This special collection of Demographic Research focuses on the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe. Methods: The collection is comprised of studies that explore how various dimensions of employment uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are related to the fertility and family formation of women and men across Europe. The studies cover Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel. Results: The various micro-level studies that are assembled in this special collection do not provide a simple answer to the question of whether and how economic uncertainty suppresses (or stimulates) fertility. However, some systematic variation by welfare state regime is discernable. Conclusions: Given the recent economic volatility in Europe, we expect that labor market uncertainties will remain an important component of explanations of fertility developments in the 21st century. KW - Economic uncertainties KW - Employment KW - Europe KW - Family dynamics KW - Fertility KW - Uncertainty KW - Unemployment Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.27.28 VL - 27 SP - 835 EP - 852 PB - Max-Planck Institut für demografische Forschung CY - Rostock ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela A1 - Hornung, Anne A1 - Kubisch, Karolin T1 - The German Generations and Gender Survey: Some Critical Reflections on the Validity of Fertility Histories JF - Comparative Population Studies N2 - This paper validates the fertility histories of the German Generations and Gender Survey (GGS). Focusing on the cohorts 1930-69 of West German women, the total number of children, the parity distribution and the parity progression ratios are compared to external sources. One major result from this validation is that the German GGS understates the fertility for the older cohorts and overstates it for the younger ones. We presume that two mechanisms are responsible for this pattern in the German GGS: On the one hand, children who have left parental home are underreported in the retrospective fertility histories. On the other hand, women with small children are easier to reach by the interviewer. These two mechanisms taken together produce too low numbers of children for the older and too high ones for the younger cohorts. Extending the validation to marital histories has revealed a similar bias. Our general conclusion from this investigation is that the German GGS may not be used for statistical analyses of cohort fertility and marriage trends. For subsequent surveys, we suggest integrating simple control questions in questionnaires with complex retrospective fertility and union histories. T2 - Der deutsche Generations and Gender Survey: Einige kritische Betrachtungen zur Validität der Fertilitätsverläufe KW - Fertility KW - Fertility history KW - Union history KW - Marriage KW - Data validation KW - West Germany KW - Generations and Gender Survey KW - GGS Y1 - 2013 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-8508 SN - 1869-8999 VL - 38 IS - 1 SP - 3 EP - 28 PB - Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung CY - Wiesbaden ER -