TY - RPRT A1 - Feist, Marian A1 - Geden, Oliver T1 - Loss & Damage Finance and Mitigation Pledges: Priorities for Climate Diplomacy in 2023 T2 - Energy and Climate Diplomacy Y1 - 2023 UR - https://www.emi-bg.com/%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B8-%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F/ UR - https://www.emi-bg.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Energy-and-Climate-Diplomacy_2023.pdf SN - 2815-4878 VL - Foreign Affairs Research Papers 17 SP - 74 EP - 84 PB - Bugarian Diplomatic Institute ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Tiedemann, Silvana A1 - Sgarlato, Raffaele A1 - Hirth, Lion T1 - Price elasticity of electricity demand: Using instrumental variable regressions to address endogeneity and autocorrelation of high-frequency time series N2 - This paper examines empirical methods for estimating the response of aggregated electricity demand to high-frequency price signals, the short-term elasticity of electricity demand. We investigate how the endogeneity of prices and the autocorrelation of the time series, which are particularly pronounced at hourly granularity, affect and distort common estimators. After developing a controlled test environment with synthetic data that replicate key statistical properties of electricity demand, we show that not only the ordinary least square (OLS) estimator is inconsistent (due to simultaneity), but so is a regular instrumental variable (IV) regression (due to autocorrelation). Using wind as an instrument, as it is commonly done, may result in an estimate of the demand elasticity that is inflated by an order of magnitude. We visualize the reason for the Thams bias using causal graphs and show that its magnitude depends on the autocorrelation of both the instrument, and the dependent variable. We further incorporate and adapt two extensions of the IV estimation, conditional IV and nuisance IV, which have recently been proposed by Thams et al. (2022). We show that these extensions can identify the true short-term elasticity in a synthetic setting and are thus particularly promising for future empirical research in this field. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2306.12863 PB - arXiv ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Arlinghaus, Johanna A1 - Koch, Nicolas T1 - The welfare impact of using second-best uniform taxes to address traffic congestion N2 - This paper uses a novel GPS-coded dataset for more than three million car trips in the four largest German cities to measure the efficiency losses from using uniform fuel taxes as a second-best optimal tax to reduce traffic congestion. We estimate the short-run price elasticity of vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT) across different hours of the day from a panel gravity equation. Identification of the price elasticity relies on comparing VKT changes between granular trip origin and destination pairs within each city. We find that the VKT price elasticity differs strongly across trips taken at different hours of the day, and that this elasticity correlates with contributions to the congestion externality. Using a policy simulation, we show that 52% of the deadweight loss of the congestion externality remains after levying a uniform fuel tax. KW - Congestion, externalities, traffic, optimal taxation Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4523285 PB - SSRN ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Anheier, Helmut K. A1 - Knudsen, Edward L. A1 - Yang, Yuqing A1 - Fröhlich, Christian T1 - Geopolitics and Domestic Governance Performance: Four Global Powers in a Changing World Order N2 - What is the link between the domestic governance performance of global powers and their geopolitical positioning and potential? Using data from the 2022 Berggruen Governance Index, this brief looks at the United States, China, Russia, and the EU5 (i.e., the five largest EU economies France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) in the context of four different future scenarios. It finds strikingly different trajectories for each global power, with distinct challenges and opportunities. Overall, the United States and the EU are more likely to maintain, even strengthen their relative geopolitical position, whereas China faces significant uncertainties due to domestic governance problems. Russia, suffering from low state capacities and unable to serve its predatory elites, is likely to enter a period of decline and loss of status. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://governance.luskin.ucla.edu/publications-2-2/ PB - UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs CY - Los Angeles ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Lambert, Philippe A1 - Kreyenfeld, Michaela T1 - Exogenous time-varying covariates in double additive cure survival model with application to fertility Y1 - 2023 UR - https://dial.uclouvain.be/pr/boreal/object/boreal%3A272223/datastream/PDF_01/view PB - ISBA CY - Louvain-la-Neuve ET - LIDAM Discussion Paper IBA 2023/06 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hallerberg, Mark A1 - Scartascini, Carlos T1 - Research Insights: Does Politics Trump the Ability of Having Successful Tax Reforms? N2 - The probability of tax reform is higher during banking crises. Tax reform is unlikely to occur during election periodseven if the government is facing financing problemsso reforms that seek to raise taxes should be avoided at those times. The ideology of the president does not explain which taxes are reformed, or how they are changed, but the presence of an IMF program does. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18235/0005267 ET - #80 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Ardanáz, Martín A1 - Hallerberg, Mark A1 - Scartascini, Carlos T1 - Research Insights: When Fiscal Adjustments Must Be Made, Do Voters Care Which Policy Is Used? N2 - Fiscal adjustments, aimed at resolving imbalances that can lead to an economic crisis, have a high political cost in Latin America and the Caribbean. Fiscal consolidations in the region generally focuses on raising indirect taxes, such as the value added tax (VAT), which are relatively easy to collect. Experimental evidence, however, indicates that citizens would prefer to reduce public spending rather than increase taxes. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean must invest in fiscal tools that give them more room to maneuver in times of economic crisis and thus reduce negative impacts on electoral results. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.18235/0005292 PB - Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) ET - #101 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schnetzer, Simon A1 - Hampel, Kilian A1 - Hurrelmann, Klaus T1 - Trendstudie “Jugend in Deutschland – 2023 mit Generationenvergleich T2 - JID23 - Jugend in Deutschland Y1 - 2023 UR - https://simon-schnetzer.com/jugend-in-deutschland-2023-mit-generationenvergleich/ PB - Datajockey Verlag CY - Kempten ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Wood, Tamara A1 - Elbasyouny, Ahmed T1 - Analysing group refugee recognition in African states’ law and practice T3 - RefMig Working Paper Series - 11 Y1 - 2023 UR - https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-55771 UR - https://www.refmig.org/working-papers U6 - https://doi.org/10.48462/opus4-5577 ET - No. 11 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Revillard, Anne A1 - Corno, Lucia A1 - Fernandez, José Luis A1 - Mason, Danielle A1 - Umbach, Gaby A1 - Bodenstein, Thilo A1 - Cartwright, Andrew A1 - Melenciuc, Ioana-Roxana A1 - Wegrich, Kai A1 - Stone, Diane T1 - Developing policy evaluation in an academic setting: assets and challenges T2 - Débat du LIEPP N2 - Based on a seminar organized by LIEPP and CIVICA which took place at Sciences Po in June 2022, this publication brings together ten academic researchers from seven different CIVICA universities (Bocconi, CEU, EUI, Hertie School, LSE, Sciences Po, SNSPA), who are involved in various forms of policy evaluation. These contributions from Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, and the United Kingdom, reflect on the assets and challenges of developing policy evaluation in an academic setting. The seminar was organized as part of CIVICA’s research focus on “Democracy in the 21st century”, but through the crosscutting nature of program evaluation, it is also of interest to CIVICA’s three others research streams (on societies in transition, data, and Europe revisited). The aim of this debate is thus to better understand the specificities, assets and challenges of developing evaluation from within an academic setting, in view of eventually reflecting on possible ways to collectively reinforce this practice within CIVICA, and use CIVICA as a leverage to reinforce this practice. This debate is organized around two topics, developing academic evaluative research, and the role of academic institutions in outreach and training in evaluation. Contributions are based on presentations of the experiences of each CIVICA partner. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04074380/ IS - n°7 ER -