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    <title language="eng">The Incomplete Leap: On the Transition From Union Registration to the First Collective Agreement</title>
    <abstract language="eng">In decentralized systems where unionization and bargaining occur at the establishment level, what explains the (speedy) transition from union registration to the first collective agreement? While prior evidence in some developed countries (i.e., the United States) estimates this transition to be approximately a year, on average, little to no evidence exists in other contexts where unions play a less central role, as is the case in many developing countries. Addressing this gap, we analyze the Philippines where national unionization and collective bargaining coverage rates are relatively low. Using methods from survival analysis on novel register data of all new union registrations from 2016 to 2021, we descriptively demonstrate that: (i) median union membership density is low at 40%; (ii) only 20% of all new union registrations successfully register a contract within the first 5 years; and (iii) unions with higher densities, that are independent, and in the manufacturing sector are associated with elevated transition rates to a collective agreement.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Industrial Relations Journal</parentTitle>
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    <author>Vincent Jerald Ramos</author>
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    <author>Edgar Antonio Suguitan</author>
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    <title language="eng">Essays on the Causes and Demographic Consequences of Employment Uncertainty</title>
    <abstract language="eng">.</abstract>
    <identifier type="doi">10.48462/opus4-5599</identifier>
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    <note>Parts of the dissertation have been published. &#13;
&#13;
Chapter 2:&#13;
Ramos, V. J. (2024). Extreme Lockdowns and the Gendered Informalization of Employment: Evidence from the Philippines. Work, Employment and Society. https://doi.org/10.1177/09500170241247121 &#13;
&#13;
Chapter 4:&#13;
This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use (https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/policies/accepted-manuscript-terms), but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09656-5&#13;
&#13;
Kreyenfeld, M., Konietzka, D., Lambert, P., &amp; Ramos, V. J. (2023). Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty. European Journal of Population, 39(1), 5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-023-09656-5</note>
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    <author>Vincent Jerald R. Ramos</author>
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    <advisor>Michaela Kreyenfeld</advisor>
    <advisor>Anna Matysiak</advisor>
    <advisor>Daniele Vignoli</advisor>
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    <completedDate>2025-10-23</completedDate>
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    <title language="eng">Nonlinearities in the Intellectual Property-Manufacturing Growth Nexus in the Post-TRIPS Era: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Analysis</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Discussions around the importance of intellectual property (IP) intensified at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic as countries raced to secure IP-protected goods (e.g., vaccines and medical equipment) necessary to respond quickly and adequately to the threat of the virus’ spread. Building on the growing strand of the literature that reexamines IP’s effect on an array of social and economic outcomes, this paper examines the relationship between quantitative (patents and trademarks) and qualitative (IP protection) measures of IP, on the one hand, and manufacturing growth, on the other hand, accounting for the presence of nonlinearities. Using a two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM) approach on a panel dataset of 81 countries spanning the post-1995 TRIPS Agreement period, our estimates show that these alternative measures of IP have differential and nonlinear effects on manufacturing growth. In particular, patents have a positive significant marginal effect on manufacturing growth past a minimum scale, whereas trademarks do not have a significant effect. In contrast, stronger IPR protection has a positive effect only up to a critical level of IPR protection, implying that “too much” IPR protection can stifle growth-inducing competing innovation. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the mechanisms through which IP may contribute to manufacturing growth, and on some policies, which may help realize this potential. Broadly, this paper speaks to academic and policy discussions surrounding optimal IP enforcement and the benefits and consequences of IP.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Journal of the Knowledge Economy</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1007/s13132-024-02235-x</identifier>
    <note>Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library.</note>
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    <author>Vincent Jerald R. Ramos</author>
    <submitter>Terri Sullivan</submitter>
    <author>Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes</author>
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    <collection role="OA_funding" number="">Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library</collection>
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    <title language="eng">Initial labor market conditions and subsequent fertility behavior</title>
    <abstract language="eng">The conditions upon which young adults enter the labor market have been demonstrated to affect various later-life employment and family formation outcomes. After the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis, a thick strand of the literature has shown that precarious initial employment leads to postponed childbearing and higher ultimate childlessness. However, it is not only individual conditions that matter. Broader macroeconomic conditions upon entry also matter. The “scarring” literature has illustrated the consequences of entering the labor market during a recession on later life outcomes. Speaking to both strands and using detailed employment and birth histories of labor market entrants in Germany, this paper examines the effects of initial conditions, operationalized using fixed-term employment and recession year entry, on subsequent fertility behavior. To partly address bias from endogenous selection into initial conditions, we employ a two-step estimation strategy combining a non-parametric optimal full matching step and a parametric event history modeling step using the matched data. Results suggest that entering the labor market with a fixed-term contract is persistently and negatively associated with first births up to a decade after entry, and this pattern is pronounced only among women, whereas entering during a recession has persistent negative associations only among men.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Genus</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1186/s41118-024-00233-0</identifier>
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    <title language="eng">Extreme Lockdowns and the Gendered Informalization of Employment: Evidence from the Philippines</title>
    <abstract language="eng">The adverse effects of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes are amplified by and partly attributable to the imposition of extreme mobility restrictions. While gendered disparities in job losses and reduction in working hours are demonstrated in the literature, is an informalization of employment observed, and is this phenomenon likewise gendered? This article analyses the Philippines, a country that imposed one of the world’s longest and strictest lockdowns, and specifically how its imposition affected informal employment. A conceptual and empirical distinction between compositional and survivalist informalization is proffered – the former referring to informality induced by changes in the size and composition of overall employment, and the latter referring to informality induced by the need to work owing to absent sufficient welfare support and precautionary household savings. Examining the regional variation in lockdowns as a quasi-experiment, results demonstrate that extreme lockdowns increased the probability of informal employment among employed women but not among employed men.</abstract>
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While gendered disparities in job losses and reduction in working hours are demonstrated in the literature, is an informalization of employment observed, and is this phenomenon likewise gendered? This article analyses the Philippines, a country that imposed one of the world\u2019s longest and strictest lockdowns, and specifically how its imposition affected informal employment. A conceptual and empirical distinction between compositional and survivalist informalization is proffered \u2013 the former referring to informality induced by changes in the size and composition of overall employment, and the latter referring to informality induced by the need to work owing to absent sufficient welfare support and precautionary household savings. 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    <title language="eng">Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty</title>
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    <completedDate>2025-09-09</completedDate>
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    <title language="eng">Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany</title>
    <abstract language="eng">In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors that influence childbearing decisions is of interest. We used a factorial survey experiment to investigate how scenarios of future caregiving responsibilities toward aging parents and employment uncertainties shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) (n = 1,750) were randomly assigned to five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical couple with varying levels of caregiving responsibilities towards an aging parent and employment uncertainties. Respondents subsequently rated their expectations about the hypothetical couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point scale. Results show that high caregiving responsibilities and dual employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 units respectively, compared to when these are absent. The negative effect of high caregiving responsibilities is more pronounced among women, while respondents’ own caregiving and employment experiences do not moderate these effects. These results demonstrate how both future-oriented caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation and highlight the scenarios that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Population Research and Policy Review</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1007/s11113-025-09969-9</identifier>
    <note>Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library.</note>
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    <author>Vincent Jerald Ramos</author>
    <submitter>Alwine Hoppe</submitter>
    <author>Michaela Kreyenfeld</author>
    <author>Enrique Alonso-Perez</author>
    <author>Paul Gellert</author>
    <author>Jan Paul Heisig</author>
    <author>Julie Lorraine O’Sullivan</author>
    <collection role="OA_funding" number="">Open Access publication is funded by the Hertie School Library</collection>
    <collection role="AY-25-26" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
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