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    <id>4660</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>38</pageNumber>
    <edition>No. 4</edition>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-12-07</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals</title>
    <abstract language="eng">We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents’ degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="url">https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers</identifier>
    <identifier type="doi">10.48462/opus4-4660</identifier>
    <identifier type="urn">urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-46602</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Creative Commons - CC BY - 4.0 International</licence>
    <author>Peter Haan</author>
    <submitter>Angelika Behlen</submitter>
    <author>Chen Sun</author>
    <author>Uwe Sunde</author>
    <author>Georg Weizsäcker</author>
    <series>
      <title>Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</title>
      <number>4</number>
    </series>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Expectation Formation, Time perception, Sub-additivity, Super-additivity</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">BerlinSchoolOfEcon_Discussion_Papers</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
    <file>https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/files/4660/BSE_DP_0004.pdf</file>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4945</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2023</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>41</pageNumber>
    <edition>No. 14</edition>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2023-05-08</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Beliefs as a Means of Self-Control? Evidence from a Dynamic Student Survey</title>
    <abstract language="eng">We repeatedly elicit beliefs about the returns to study effort, in a large university course. A behavioral model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and malleable beliefs predicts that the dynamics of beliefs mirrors the importance of exerting self-control, such that believed returns increase as the exam approaches, and drop post-exam. Exploiting variation in exam timing to control for common information shocks, we find this prediction confirmed: average believed study returns increase by about 20% over the period before the exam, and drop by about the same amount afterwards. Additional analyses further support the hypothesized mechanism that beliefs serve as a means of self-control.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.48462/opus4-4945</identifier>
    <identifier type="url">https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/bse-discussion-papers</identifier>
    <identifier type="urn">urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-49457</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Creative Commons - CC BY - 4.0 International</licence>
    <author>Felix Bönisch</author>
    <submitter>Anna Soczek</submitter>
    <author>Tobias König</author>
    <author>Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch</author>
    <author>Georg Weizsäcker</author>
    <series>
      <title>Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</title>
      <number>14</number>
    </series>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">BerlinSchoolOfEcon_Discussion_Papers</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
    <file>https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/files/4945/BSE_DP_0014.pdf</file>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>5904</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2025</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>20</pageNumber>
    <edition>No. 70</edition>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2025-07-28</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Measuring Long-Run Expectations that Correlate with Investment Decisions</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual growth rates over the next 10 years, or they predict the total, cumulative growth that occurs over the 10-year period. Results show that total 10-year forecasts are more pessimistic than average annual forecasts, but they better predict experimental portfolio choices and real-world stock market participation.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.48462/opus4-5904</identifier>
    <identifier type="urn">urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-59042</identifier>
    <identifier type="url">https://berlinschoolofeconomics.de/insights/discussion-papers</identifier>
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    <licence>Creative Commons - CC BY - 4.0 International</licence>
    <author>Peter Haan</author>
    <submitter>Terri Sullivan</submitter>
    <author>Chen Sun</author>
    <author>Felix Weinhardt</author>
    <author>Georg Weizsäcker</author>
    <series>
      <title>Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers</title>
      <number>70</number>
    </series>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">BerlinSchoolOfEcon_Discussion_Papers</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
    <file>https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/files/5904/BSoE_DP_0070.pdf</file>
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