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  <doc>
    <id>5680</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2024</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>deu</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>61</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName>Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace>Potsdam</publisherPlace>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2024-12-20</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="deu">Deutschlands Klimaaußenpolitik: Kontext – Rückschau – Weiterentwicklung</title>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/analyse-deutschlands-klimaaussenpolitik-kontext-rueckschau-weiterentwicklung/</identifier>
    <identifier type="doi">https://doi.org/10.48485/pik.2024.017</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Ole Adolphsen</author>
    <submitter>Alwine Hoppe</submitter>
    <author>Marian Feist</author>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <author>Oliver Geden</author>
    <author>Benjamin Görlach</author>
    <author>Michael Jakob</author>
    <subject>
      <language>deu</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <collection role="AY-24-25" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4773</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2023-02-16</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">The Role of Weather Predictions in Electricity Price Forecasting Beyond the Day-Ahead Horizon</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Forecasts of meteorology-driven factors, such as intermittent renewable generation, are commonly included in electricity price forecasting models. We show that meteorological forecasts can be used directly to improve price forecasts multiple days in advance. We introduce an autoregressive multivariate linear model with exogenous variables and LASSO for variable selection and regularization. We used variants of this model to forecast German wholesale prices up to ten days in advance and evaluate the benefit of adding meteorological forecasts, namely wind speed and direction, solar irradiation, cloud cover, and temperature forecasts of selected locations across Europe. The resulting regression coefficients are analyzed with regard to their spatial as well as temporal distribution and are put in context with underlying power market fundamentals. Wind speed in northern Germany emerges as a particularly strong explanatory variable. The benefit of adding meteorological forecasts strongest when autoregressive effects are weak, yet the accuracy of the meteorological forecasts is sufficient for the model to identify patterns. Forecasts produced 2-4 days in advance exhibit an improvement in RMSE by 10-20%. Furthermore, the forecasting horizon is shown to impact the choice of the regularization penalty that tends to increase at longer forecasting horizons.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">IEEE Transactions on Power Systems</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3180119</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Raffaele Sgarlato</author>
    <submitter>Alex Karras</submitter>
    <author>Florian Ziel</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4713</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>138</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName>Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace>Potsdam</publisherPlace>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2023-01-10</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Assessing Climate Policy Instrument Pathways: An Application to the German Light Duty Vehicle Sector</title>
    <additionalTitle language="deu">Bewertung klimapolitischer Instrumentenmix-Pfade: Eine Anwendung auf leichte Nutzfahrzeuge in Deutschland</additionalTitle>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/background-assessing-climate-policy-instrument-pathways-an-application-to-the-german-light-duty-vehicle-sector/</identifier>
    <identifier type="urn">urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-47130</identifier>
    <identifier type="doi">10.48462/opus4-4713</identifier>
    <note>This publication is also available in German at the link above.</note>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Creative Commons - CC BY - 4.0 International</licence>
    <author>Duncan Edmondson</author>
    <submitter>Terri Sullivan</submitter>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <author>Nils aus dem Moore</author>
    <author>Nicolas Koch</author>
    <author>Florian Koller</author>
    <author>Henri Gruhl</author>
    <author>Johannes Brehm</author>
    <author>Sebastian Levi</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <collection role="Faculty" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
    <file>https://opus4.kobv.de/opus4-hsog/files/4713/Ariadne_PolicyPathwaysVehicles_Nov22.pdf</file>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4659</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>--</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Cost-Potential Curves of Onshore Wind Energy: the Role of Disamenity Costs</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Numerical optimization models are used to develop scenarios of the future energy system. Usually, they optimize the energy mix subject to engineering costs such as equipment and fuel. For onshore wind energy, some of these models use cost-potential curves that indicate how much electricity can be generated at what cost. These curves are upward sloping mainly because windy sites are occupied first and further expanding wind energy means deploying less favorable resources. Meanwhile, real-world wind energy expansion is curbed by local resistance, regulatory constraints, and legal challenges. This presumably reflects the perceived adverse effect that onshore wind energy has on the local human population, as well as other negative external effects. These disamenity costs are at the core of this paper. We provide a comprehensive and consistent set of cost-potential curves of wind energy for all European countries that include disamenity costs, and which can be used in energy system modeling. We combine existing valuation of disamenity costs from the literature that describe the costs as a function of the distance between turbine and households with gridded population data, granular geospatial data of wind speeds, and additional land-use constraints to calculate such curves. We find that disamenity costs are not a game changer: for most countries and assumptions, the marginal levelized cost of onshore wind energy increase by 0.2–12.5 €/MWh.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Environmental and Resource Economics</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1007/s10640-022-00746-2</identifier>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <author>Anselm Eicke</author>
    <author>Raffaele Sgarlato</author>
    <author>Tim Tröndle</author>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="Faculty" number=""/>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4655</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume>17</volume>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName>Environmental Research Letters</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>--</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>2022-11-23</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">German stakeholder perceptions of an EU carbon border adjustment mechanism</title>
    <abstract language="eng">The European Commission has proposed a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that would apply the carbon price prevailing in the EU emissions trading system to import-related emissions. We conducted a survey to study perceptions of an EU CBAM among German key stakeholders from industry, civil society, and research in July 2021. We find that substantial support for CBAM exists as well as the expectation that the mechanism will eventually be introduced. We identified divergent views on key design options among stakeholder groups. Stakeholders from industry generally favour the continuation of free allocation of emissions allowances, rebates for exporters from the EU, coverage of only scope 1 emissions, and use of revenues for domestic spending. Stakeholders from civil society prefer phasing out free allocation, coverage only of imports, an emissions scope including all indirect emissions, exempting low-income countries and countries that do implement non-price-based climate policies, and the use of revenues to finance green transformation in low-income countries. Respondents from research would generally rather see free allocation being phased out, emissions coverage of scope 1 and 2, exemptions for low-income countries and countries that do implement non-price-based policies with comparable effects in relevant sectors and a transfer of revenues to support clean technologies in low-income countries and green technologies in the EU. Our survey design allows us to identify three cross-stakeholder group clusters, one containing stakeholders who are comparably more hesitant towards CBAM, a second one with respondents most in favour of introducing CBAM, as well as a 'middle ground' cluster which contains views that are often in between the other two. We also compare the survey responses to the design of the Commission's CBAM proposal to identify the most likely points of political disagreement.</abstract>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1088/1748-9326/ac9f23</identifier>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Ann-Kathrin Kühner</author>
    <author>Michael Jakob</author>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="Faculty" number=""/>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4518</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>8</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-10-19</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Gas demand in times of crisis. The response of German households and industry to the 2021/22 energy crisis</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Europe is in the midst of the most severe energy crisis in a generation, at the core of which is the continuously plummeting supply of Russian natural gas. With alternative supply options being limited, natural gas prices have surged. This paper empirically estimates the response of natural gas demand to the price increase, using data from Germany—the so far largest consumer of Russian natural gas. We identify the crisis response of small and large consumers separately, controlling for temperature, gas-fired power generation, and economic activity. For small consumers, including mostly households, we find a substantial demand reduction of 6% from March onwards—most likely due to political and ethical considerations after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For industrial consumers, demand reductions started much earlier in August 2021, when wholesale prices for natural gas started to surge, with an average reduction of 11%. We conclude that voluntary industrial demand response has played a significant role in coping with the energy crisis so far.</abstract>
    <identifier type="handle">https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/261082</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Jenny Shirar</submitter>
    <author>Clemens Stiewe</author>
    <author>Jarusch Muessel</author>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Energy Demand</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Demand Response</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>European energy crisis</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Natural gas</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>deu</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="Faculty" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4519</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>6</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-10-19</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">European industry responds to high energy prices: The case of German ammonia production.</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Since September 2021, European natural gas prices are at record-high levels. On average, they have been six to seven times higher than pre-pandemic price levels. While the post-pandemic recovery of global natural gas demand has driven up prices around the world, the most important drivers for European gas prices were Russia's less-than-usual supply since mid-2021 and its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Western efforts to abandon Russian gas imports altogether mean that high natural gas prices are likely to stay for longer. While high gas prices may be the new normal, there is uncertainty about the economic reaction to this shock. How do energy-intensive industries react? Do global value chains collapse if intermediate goods produced in Europe become uneconomic because of high energy prices? Our preliminary analysis shows that industry response to has in fact been visible from the very onset of the energy crisis. A closer look at German fertilizer production, which heavily relies on natural gas as fuel and feedstock to produce ammonia as an intermediate product, reveals that increased ammonia imports have allowed domestic fertilizer production to remain remarkably stable.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/253251</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Clemens Stiewe</author>
    <submitter>Shirar Jenny</submitter>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Energy Demand</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Demand response</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>European energy crisis</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Natural gas</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="Faculty" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4520</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>25</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-10-19</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Flexible green hydrogen: economic benefits without increasing power sector emissions</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Electrolytic hydrogen complements renewable energy in many net-zero energy scenarios. In these long-term scenarios with full decarbonization, the “greenness” of hydrogen is without question. In current energy systems, however, the ramp-up of hydrogen production may cause additional emissions. To avoid this potential adverse effect, recently proposed EU regulation defines strict requirements for electrolytic hydrogen to qualify as green: electrolyzers must run on additional renewable generation, which is produced in a temporally and geographically congruent manner. Focusing on the temporal dimension, this paper argues in favor of a more flexible definition of green hydrogen, which keeps the additionality criterion on a yearly basis but allows for dispatch optimization on a market basis within that period. We develop a model that optimizes dispatch and investment of a wind-hydrogen system—including wind turbines, hydrogen electrolysis, and hydrogen storage—and apply the model to a German case study based on data from 2017-2021. Contrasting different regulatory conditions, we show that a flexible definition of green hydrogen can reduce costs without additional power sector emissions. By contrast, requiring simultaneity implies that a rational investor would build a much larger wind turbine, hydrogen electrolyzer, and hydrogen storage than needed. This leads to additional costs, underutilized resources, and a potential slow-down of green hydrogen deployment. We discuss that current trends in the energy transition are likely to amplify the economic and environmental benefits of a flexible definition of green hydrogen and recommend this as the way forward for a sustainable hydrogen policy.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">http://hdl.handle.net/10419/258999</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Jenny Shirar</submitter>
    <author>Johanna Schiele</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4458</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>doctoralthesis</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-06-21</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>2022-06-13</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">The Economics of Flexible Electricity Demand</title>
    <abstract language="eng">In electricity systems, supply traditionally follows demand. Consequently, economists have focused on analyzing supply while assuming perfectly inelastic demand. Demand flexibility, if at all, occurred in deterministic patterns, such as during peak and off-peak periods, incentivized by static time-of-use tariffs. Nowadays, the role of electricity demand is changing fundamentally: growing shares of fluctuating wind and solar energy require flexibility in a larger quantity and on a stochastic basis; increasing loads of electric vehicles, heat pumps, and hydrogen electrolyzers could provide flexibility through battery, thermal, and gas storage; and the introduction of smart meters enables dynamic real-time tariffs and an automated response of distributed loads. &#13;
This cumulative dissertation contributes to the economic understanding of flexible electricity demand with five scientific articles. Article 1 starts with reviewing the role of electrification in decarbonization scenarios for heating and road transport in Germany. The article finds that decarbonization drives electrification, leading to an increase in electricity demand by a factor of roughly two. Direct and indirect electrification options are contrasted with respect to their distinct flexibility potential.&#13;
Articles 2 and 3 explore the implications of decentralized electric heat pumps and centralized electrolytic hydrogen, respectively, for the market value of renewables. Both use the same numerical electricity market model.  Article 2 finds that the volatility of the heat pump’s electricity demand challenges the electricity system, which becomes apparent in increasing load cost. A flexible operation of heat pumps may reduce this challenge, but potential benefits for the market value of wind energy are minor. By contrast, Article 3 shows that hydrogen electrolyzers have the potential to stabilize renewable market values at high renewable market shares effectively and permanently, because additional renewable supply can trigger investment in additional hydrogen electrolyzers with additional demand.&#13;
Articles 4 and 5 investigate the flexibility of the current electricity demand using econometric models with instrumental variables. Article 4 reveals that, at an hourly temporal resolution, the aggregated electricity demand in Germany is indeed price-elastic; it decreases by 70 MW for every € 1 per MWh increase in the day-ahead wholesale price. Article 5 finds that demand is also price-responsive in the very short term: the demand for imbalance energy responds to the imbalance price—despite the legal obligation in Germany to minimize imbalances independent of prices.</abstract>
    <note>Publications:&#13;
&#13;
Ruhnau, O., Bannik, S., Otten, S., Praktiknjo, A., Robinius, M., 2019. Direct or indirect electrification? A review of heat generation and road transport decarbonisation scenarios for Germany 2050. Energy 166, 989–999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.114&#13;
&#13;
Ruhnau, O., Hirth, L., Praktiknjo, A., 2020. Heating with wind: Economics of heat pumps and variable renewables. Energy Economics 104967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104967 &#13;
&#13;
Ruhnau, O., 2021. How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers. Applied Energy 118194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118194&#13;
&#13;
Hirth, L., Khanna, T., Ruhnau, O., 2022. The (very) short-term price elasticity of German electricity demand. Working Paper. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249570 &#13;
&#13;
Eicke, A., Ruhnau, O., Hirth, L., 2021. Electricity balancing as a market equilibrium: An instrument-based estimation of supply and demand for imbalance energy. Energy Economics 102, 105455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105455</note>
    <note>Shelf mark: 2022D006 + 2022D006+1</note>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <advisor>Lion Hirth</advisor>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Christopher Landes</submitter>
    <advisor>Christoph Weber</advisor>
    <advisor>Ottmar Edenhofer</advisor>
    <series>
      <title>Dissertations submitted to the Hertie School</title>
      <number>06/2022</number>
    </series>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
    <thesisGrantor>Hertie School</thesisGrantor>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4431</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>deu</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>1-37</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName>Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne.</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace>Potsdam</publisherPlace>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-06-10</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="deu">Regionale Steuerungsinstrumente im Stromsektor.</title>
    <abstract language="deu">Um die Klimaziele bis 2045 zu erreichen, muss der Stromsektor fundamental verändert werden. Insbesondere die Erneuerbaren Energien (EE) müssen massiv ausgebaut werden. Dabei stellt sich auch die Frage, an welchen Standorten neue Anlagen errichtet werden. Fand der Zubau historisch eher in den Regionen mit guten natürlichen Ressourcen an Wind und Sonne, hohen Volllaststunden und damit niedrigen Kosten pro erzeugter Stromeinheit statt, kann in Zukunft eine Standortsteuerung notwendig werden, um Kosten und Nutzen des EE-Ausbaus gleichmäßiger über das Bundesgebiet zu verteilen, die Stromnetze zu entlasten und die Potentiale in allen Regionen zu heben.&#13;
&#13;
Im Rahmen des Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne wurden Szenarien entwickelt, anhand derer Bürgerinnen und Bürger die Vor- und Nachteile verschiedener regionaler Verteilungen der Standorte aus Akzeptanzgesichtspunkten diskutierten. Dabei wurde erkennbar, dass mögliche regionale Verteilungen, die aus Sicht der Bürgerinnen und Bürger eher wünschenswert wären, deutlich vom Status Quo abweichen.&#13;
&#13;
In der vorliegenden Analyse geben wir daher einen Überblick über die Regulierungs- und Politikinstrumente, mit denen eine ex ante bestimmte regionale Verteilung erreicht werden kann, die nicht allein einer ökonomischen Optimierung folgt. Zur Bestimmung der Verteilung können übergeordnete Anforderungen, beispielsweise an eine ausgewogene Flächenverteilung, eine Rolle spielen, aber auch gesellschaftliche Indikatoren, wie eine als gerecht empfundene Lasten- und Nutzenteilung. Wir analysieren Vor- und Nachteile der verschiedenen Instrumente und geben Hinweise zu ihrer juristischen Umsetzbarkeit. Außerdem quantifizieren wir anhand eines stilisierten Beispiels, wie preisbasierte Steuerungselemente ausgestaltet werden müssten, um zu einer regionalen Verteilung der Windanlagen in Deutschland zu führen, die in dem „Fokus PV“-Szenario des Ariadne-Reports zur Klimaneutralität 20451 modelliert wurde.&#13;
&#13;
Die Analyse zeigt auf, dass eine Vielzahl von Instrumenten die regionale Verteilung so beeinflussen können, dass sie zu einer gleichmäßigeren und mitunter als gerechter empfundenen Verteilung des Zubaus an Erneuerbaren Energien führt.&#13;
&#13;
Das Aufzeigen der verschiedenen Instrumentenoptionen zur regionalen Steuerung ist relevant für die künftige Gestaltung der Energiewende, da die bisherige regionale Steuerung vor allem innerhalb der Erneuerbaren-Förderung stattfindet, die in Zukunft jedoch zunehmend an Bedeutung verlieren dürfte und zudem nicht alle Technologien berücksichtigt. Die transparente Darstellung der Vor- und Nachteile hilft außerdem beim Abwägen im Falle von – bei der Auswahl von Standorten häufig auftretenden – Interessenskonflikten.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2022/05/Ariadne-Analyse_Regionale-Steuerungsinstrumente_Juni2022.pdf</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Anselm Eicke</author>
    <submitter>Caroline Forscht</submitter>
    <author>Silvana Tiedeman</author>
    <author>Stefanie Mieth</author>
    <author>Norman Gerhardt</author>
    <author>Lukas Jansen</author>
    <author>Klara Reder</author>
    <author>Carsten Pape</author>
    <author>Roman Weidinger</author>
    <author>Hartmut Kahl</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4294</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
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    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-02-28</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">The (very) short-term price elasticity of German electricity demand</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Electricity is a peculiar economic good, the most important reason being that it needs to be supplied at the very moment of consumption. As a result, wholesale electricity prices fluctuate widely at hourly or sub-hourly time scales, regularly reaching multiples of their average, and even turn negative. This paper examines whether the demand for electricity responds to such price variations in the very short term. To solve the classical identification problem when estimating a demand curve, we use weather-driven wind energy generation as an instrument. Our robustness checks confirm that wind energy is indeed a strong and valid instrument. Using data from Germany, we estimate that a 1 €/MWh increase in the wholesale electricity price causes the aggregate electricity demand to decline by 67–80 MW or 0.12–0.14%, contradicting the conventional wisdom that electricity demand is highly price-inelastic. These estimates are statistically significant and robust across model specifications, estimators, and sensitivity analyses. At average price and demand, our estimates correspond to a price elasticity of demand of about –0.05. Comparing situations with high and low wind energy (5–95th percentile), we estimate that prices vary by 26 €/MWh, and the corresponding demand response to wholesale electricity prices is about 2 GW, or 2.6% of peak load. Our analysis suggests that the demand response in Germany can be attributed primarily to industrial consumers.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/249570</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <submitter>Devika Dua</submitter>
    <author>Tarun Khanna</author>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Electricity markets</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Price elasticity</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Demand response</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Instrumental variables</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4295</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
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    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-02-28</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Update and extension of the When2Heat dataset</title>
    <abstract language="eng">The “When2Heat” dataset comprises synthetic national time series for heat demand and heat pumps’ coefficient of performance (COP) in hourly resolution. Heat demands for space and water heating are computed by combining gas standard load profiles with spatial temperature reanalysis data and population geodata. With this update, we extend the dataset to 28 European countries and the period from 2008 to 2019, including new, state-of-the-art data sources. For the geographical extension, we propose a novel approach, shifting established German heat demand curves based on country-specific heating thresholds to account for regional differences in thermal insulation and user behavior. Using the example of Italy, we illustrate the effect of shifting heat demand curves. The dataset, scripts, and input parameters are publicly available under an open-source license on the Open Power System Data platform.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/249997</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Devika Dua</submitter>
    <author>Jarusch Muessel</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Heat demand</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Heat pumps</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Coefficient of performance</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Europe</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>deu</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4290</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>deu</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>1-39</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2022-02-24</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="deu">Positionen deutscher Stakeholder zu einem europäischen CO2-Grenzausgleich. Ariadne-Hintergrund.</title>
    <abstract language="deu">Die Sorge um „Carbon Leakage“ ist ein zentrales Hindernis für eine ambitionierte deutsche und Europäische Klimapolitik und hat in der Vergangenheit zu intensiven politischen Konflikten geführt. Um angesichts der ambitionierten Klimaziele des Green Deal Carbon Leakage in Zukunft zu verhindern, hat die Europäische Union in ihrem „Fit für 55“-Paket ein CO2-Grenzausgleichssystem (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, CBAM) vorgeschlagen. Über den Gesetzesvorschlag der Kommission wird momentan im zuständigen Umweltausschuss des EU-Parlaments beraten. Die Entscheidung des EU-Parlaments wird dann an den Rat der Europäischen Union, nun unter dem Vorsitz Frankreichs, übermittelt und dort weiter diskutiert. Die Verordnung soll im Januar 2023 in Kraft treten.&#13;
&#13;
Angesichts der Sorgen und politischen Konflikte um mögliches Carbon Leakage hat die Frage der Unterstützung und Ablehnung der verschiedenen spezifischen Designelemente eines EU CBAM durch verschiedene Stakeholdergruppen eine hohe politische Relevanz. Vor diesem Hintergrund haben wir mehr als 80 der zentralen Vertreterinnen und Vertreter der deutschen Fachdebatte aus Wirtschaft, Zivilgesellschaft und Wissenschaft sowohl nach ihren grundlegenden Einstellungen als auch zu spezifischen Details der Ausgestaltung eines CBAM befragt. Dabei zeigt sich, dass in Deutschland ein CBAM unter den wichtigsten Stakeholdergruppen durchschnittlich befürwortet wird. Als Hauptdiskussionspunkte identifiziert wurden(1) das Auslaufen der kostenlosen Zuteilung von Emissionsrechten bei Einführung eines CBAM, (2) die Anwendung eines CBAM nur auf Importe (und nicht auch auf Exporte), (3) die Frage ob und für welche Länder Ausnahmen gelten sollten und (4) die Verwendung der CBAM-Einnahmen.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/hintergrund-positionen-deutscher-stakeholder-zu-einem-europaischen-co2-grenzausgleich/</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Ann-Kathrin Kühner</author>
    <submitter>Caroline Forscht</submitter>
    <author>Michael Jakob</author>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4197</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume>307</volume>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-12-01</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: the case of hydrogen electrolyzers</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Wind and solar energy are often expected to fall victim to their own success: the higher their share in electricity production, the more their revenue on electricity markets (their “market value”) declines. While in conventional power systems, the market value may converge to zero, this study demonstrates that “green” hydrogen production, through adding electricity demand in low-price hours, can effectively and permanently halt the decline. With an analytical derivation, a Monte Carlo simulation, and a numerical electricity market model, I find that – due to flexible hydrogen production alone – market values across Europe likely converge above €19 ± 9 MWh-1 for solar energy and above €27 ± 8 MWh-1 for wind energy in 2050 (annual mean estimate ± standard deviation). This lower boundary is in the range of the projected levelized costs of renewables and has profound implications. Market-based renewables may hence be within reach. simulation, and a numerical electricity market model, I find that – due to flexible hydrogen production alone – market values across Europe likely converge above €19 ± 9 MWh-1 for solar energy and above €27 ± 8 MWh-1 for wind energy in 2050 (annual mean estimate ± standard deviation). This lower boundary is in the range of the projected levelized costs of renewables and has profound implications. Market-based renewables may hence be within reach.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Applied Energy, Elsevier</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118194</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Trisha Kershaw</submitter>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>renewable energy</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>hydrogen electrolysis</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>electricity market</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>electricity economics</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>integrated energy system</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>flexible electricity demand</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4191</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2021</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>deu</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>1-26</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation>Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne. Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung</contributingCorporation>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-11-30</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="deu">Wie die Governance der deutschen Klimapolitik gestärkt werden kann. Ariadne-Kurzdossier.</title>
    <abstract language="deu">Von der Sektorkopplung bis zum Wasserstoff, von der Umsetzung des Klimaschutzgesetzes bis hin zum europäischen Green Deal: Um Klimaneutralität zu erreichen, braucht es eine koordinierte und effektive Politiksteuerung über einzelne Ressorts hinweg. Klimapolitik ist Querschnittsaufgabe, denn von der Stromerzeugung über Industrie, Gebäude und Verkehr bis hin zur Landwirtschaft müssen alle Sektoren mit hohem Tempo treibhausgasneutral werden. Fachleute des vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung BMBF geförderten Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne haben zentrale Probleme der staatlichen Steuerung deutscher Klimapolitik untersucht und Lösungsoptionen vorgelegt.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/media/2021/11/Ariadne-Kurzdossier_Governance_November2021.pdf</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <submitter>Caroline Forscht</submitter>
    <author>Nils aus dem Moore</author>
    <author>Thorsten Müller</author>
    <author>Jörg Kemmerzell</author>
    <author>Duncan Edmondson</author>
    <author>Benjamin Görlach</author>
    <author>Matthias Kalkuhl</author>
    <author>Michèle Knodt</author>
    <author>Brigitte Knopf</author>
    <author>Sebastian Levi</author>
    <author>Gunnar Luderer</author>
    <author>Michael Pahle</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4181</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2021</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>deu</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber>1-42</pageNumber>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-11-08</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="deu">Klimaschutz und Verkehr: Zielerreichung nur mit unbequemen Maßnahmen möglich. Ariadne-Analyse</title>
    <abstract language="deu">Die Klimaschutzziele für das Jahr 2030 sind im Verkehrssektor nur mit starken zusätzlichen Treibhausgasreduktionen erreichbar. Die beschlossenen Maßnahmen können laut gegenwärtigen Projektionen nur einen Bruchteil jener Emissionen reduzieren, welche für die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele im Verkehrssektor notwendig wären. Um die politische Umsetzbarkeit zusätzlicher Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu erörtern, analysieren wir die Emissionsminderungswirkung und die Bevölkerungsakzeptanz von 14 möglichen Maßnahmen, basierend auf Drittstudien und eigenen Erhebungen. Wir zeigen, dass die wirkungsstärksten Maßnahmen tendenziell eine geringe Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung erfahren, wobei die Lastenverteilung keinen sichtbaren Einfluss auf die Bevölkerungsakzeptanz hat. Maßnahmen, die in der Bevölkerung mehrheitlich unterstützt werden, führen nach gegenwärtigen Projektionen nur zu geringen Treibhausgasreduktionen, so dass die Erreichung der Klimaziele 2030 ohne kontroverse Maßnahmen wie höhere CO2-Preise oder einer flächendeckenden Maut unwahrscheinlich ist. Um die Befürwortung von gegenwärtig kontroversen Maßnahmen zu erhöhen, ist es notwendig, sichtbare Rückverteilungsmechanismen zu etablieren, Maßnahmen durch gruppenspezifische Kommunikation zu begleiten und die Einführung von Politikinstrumenten strategisch zu sequenzieren.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/klimaschutz-und-verkehr-zielerreichung-nur-mit-unbequemen-massnahmen-moeglich/</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Sebastian Levi</author>
    <submitter>Caroline Forscht</submitter>
    <author>Ingo Wolf</author>
    <author>Christian Flachsland</author>
    <author>Nicolas Koch</author>
    <author>Florian Koller</author>
    <author>Duncan Edmondson</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">ARIADNE</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4172</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2021</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>workingpaper</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-10-15</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">The transformation of integrated electricity and heat systems—Assessing mid-term policies using a model comparison approach</title>
    <abstract language="eng">The development of European power markets is highly influenced by integrated electricity and heat systems. Therefore, decarbonization policies for the electricity and heat sectors, as well as numerical models that are used to guide such policies, should consider cross-sectoral interdependencies. However, although many model-based policy assessments for the highly interconnected European electricity system exist, international studies that consider interactions with the heat sector are rare. In this contribution, we systematically study the potential benefits of integrated heat and power systems by conducting a model comparison experiment. Five large-scale market models covering electricity and heat supply were utilized to study the interactions between a rather simple coal replacement scenario and a more ambitious policy that supports decarbonization through power-to-heat. With a focus on flexibility provision, emissions reduction, and economic efficiency, although the models agree on the qualitative effects, there are considerable quantitative differences. For example, the estimated reductions in overall CO2 emissions range between 0.2 and 9.0 MtCO2/a for a coal replacement scenario and between 0.2 and 25.0 MtCO2/a for a power-to-heat scenario. Model differences can be attributed mainly to the level of detail of CHP modeling and the endogeneity of generation investments. Based on a detailed comparison of the modeling results, implications for modeling choices and political decisions are discussed.</abstract>
    <identifier type="url">https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/242981</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Michael Bucksteeg</author>
    <submitter>Bernadette Boddin</submitter>
    <author>Michael Wiedmann</author>
    <author>Arne Pöstges</author>
    <author>Markus Haller</author>
    <author>Diana Böttger</author>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <author>Richard Schmitz</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Combined heat and power power-to-heat coal phase-out renewable energy energy system transformation electricity market modeling model comparison</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4108</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName>IOP Publishing</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-10-01</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Storage requirements in a 100% renewable electricity system: Extreme events and inter-annual variability</title>
    <abstract language="eng">In the context of 100% renewable electricity systems, prolonged periods with persistently scarce supply from wind and solar resources have received increasing academic and political attention. This article explores how such scarcity periods relate to energy storage requirements. To this end, we contrast results from a time series analysis with those from a system cost optimization model, based on a German 100% renewable case study using 35 years of hourly time series data. While our time series analysis supports previous findings that periods with persistently scarce supply last no longer than two weeks, we find that the maximum energy deficit occurs over a much longer period of nine weeks. This is because multiple scarce periods can closely follow each other. When considering storage losses and charging limitations, the period defining storage requirements extends over as much as 12 weeks. For this longer period, the cost-optimal storage capacity is about three times larger compared to the energy deficit of the scarcest two weeks. Adding other sources of flexibility for the example of bioenergy, the duration of period that defines storage requirements lengthens to more than one year. When optimizing system costs based on single years rather than a multi-year time series, we find substantial inter-annual variation in storage requirements with the most extreme year needing more than twice as much storage as the average year. We conclude that focusing on short-duration extreme events or single years can lead to an underestimation of storage requirements and costs of a 100 % renewable system.</abstract>
    <parentTitle language="eng">Environmental Research Letters</parentTitle>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1088/1748-9326/ac4dc8</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <submitter>Bernadette Boddin</submitter>
    <author>Staffan Qvist</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Renewable energy Wind and solar power Inter-annual variability Low-wind events Dunkelflaute Electricity system Energy storage Hydrogen Batteries</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Publications PhD Researchers</collection>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4027</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2021</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName/>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-08-09</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>--</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Electricity balancing as a market equilibrium: An instrument-based estimation of supply and demand for imbalance energy</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Frequency stability requires equalizing supply and demand for electricity at short time scales. Such electricity balancing is often understood as a sequential process in which random shocks, such as weather events, cause imbalances that system operators close by activating balancing reserves. By contrast, we study electricity balancing as a market where the equilibrium price (imbalance price) and quantity (system imbalance) are determined by supply and demand. System operators supply imbalance energy by activating reserves; market parties that, deliberately or not, deviate from schedules create a demand for imbalance energy. The incentives for deliberate strategic deviations emerge from wholesale market prices and the imbalance price. We empirically estimate the demand curve of imbalance energy, which describes how sensitive market parties are to imbalance prices. To overcome the classical endogeneity problem of price and quantity, we deploy instruments derived from a novel theoretical framework. Using data from Germany, we find a decline in the demand for imbalance energy by 2.2 MW for each increase in the imbalance price by EUR 1 per MWh. This significant price response is remarkable because the German regulator prohibits strategic deviations. We also estimate cross-market equilibriums between intraday and imbalance markets, finding that a shock to the imbalance price triggers a subsequent adjustment of the intraday price.</abstract>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105455</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Anselm Eicke</author>
    <submitter>Bernadette Boddin</submitter>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Electricity balancing, Intraday electricity market, Imbalance energy</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
  <doc>
    <id>4016</id>
    <completedYear/>
    <publishedYear>2022</publishedYear>
    <thesisYearAccepted/>
    <language>eng</language>
    <pageFirst/>
    <pageLast/>
    <pageNumber/>
    <edition/>
    <issue/>
    <volume/>
    <type>article</type>
    <publisherName>Journal of Cleaner Production Vo. 363</publisherName>
    <publisherPlace/>
    <creatingCorporation/>
    <contributingCorporation/>
    <belongsToBibliography>0</belongsToBibliography>
    <completedDate>2021-07-20</completedDate>
    <publishedDate>2022-08-20</publishedDate>
    <thesisDateAccepted>--</thesisDateAccepted>
    <title language="eng">Blue hydrogen and industrial base products: The future of fossil fuel exporters in a net-zero world</title>
    <abstract language="eng">Is there a place for today’s fossil fuel exporters in a low-carbon future? This study explores trade channels between energy exporters and importers using a novel electricity-hydrogen-steel energy systems model calibrated to Norway, a major natural gas producer, and Germany, a major energy consumer. Under tight emission constraints, Norway can supply Germany with electricity, (blue) hydrogen, or natural gas with re-import of captured CO2. Alternatively, it can use hydrogen to produce steel through direct reduction and supply it to the world market, an export route not available to other energy carriers due to high transport costs. Although results show that natural gas imports with CO2 capture in Germany is the least-cost solution, avoiding local CO2 handling via imports of blue hydrogen (direct or embodied in steel) involves only moderately higher costs. A robust hydrogen demand would allow Norway to profitably export all its natural gas production as blue hydrogen. However, diversification into local steel production, as one example of easy-to-export industrial base products, offers an effective hedge against the possibility of lower European blue hydrogen demand. Thus, it is recommended that hydrocarbon exporters like Norway consider a strategic energy export transition to a diversified mix of blue hydrogen and climate-neutral industrial base products.</abstract>
    <identifier type="doi">10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132347</identifier>
    <enrichment key="opus.source">publish</enrichment>
    <licence>Metadaten / metadata</licence>
    <author>Schalk Cloete</author>
    <submitter>Bernadette Boddin</submitter>
    <author>Oliver Ruhnau</author>
    <author>Jan Hendrik Cloete</author>
    <author>Lion Hirth</author>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Hydrogen economy, Energy-intensive industry, Decarbonization, CO2 capture and storage, Variable renewable energy</value>
    </subject>
    <subject>
      <language>eng</language>
      <type>uncontrolled</type>
      <value>Centre for Sustainability</value>
    </subject>
    <collection role="HertieResearch" number="">Centre for Sustainability</collection>
    <collection role="AY" number=""/>
    <thesisPublisher>Hertie School</thesisPublisher>
  </doc>
</export-example>
