@techreport{SolgaBrzinskyFayGrafetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Solga, Heike and Brzinsky-Fay, Christian and Graf, Lukas and Gresch, Cornelia and Protsch, Paula}, title = {Vergleiche innerhalb von Gruppen und institutionelle Gelingensbedingungen. Vielversprechende Perspektiven f{\"u}r die Ungleichheitsforschung}, series = {WZB Discussion Paper, No. SP I 2013-501}, journal = {WZB Discussion Paper, No. SP I 2013-501}, pages = {64}, language = {de} } @techreport{Graf, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graf, Lukas}, title = {Duale Studieng{\"a}nge als "unerwartete" Form der institutionellen Durchl{\"a}ssigkeit zwischen Berufs- und Hochschulbildung in Deutschland}, series = {Vergleiche innerhalb von Gruppen und institutionelle Gelingensbedingungen. Vielversprechende Perspektiven f{\"u}r die Ungleichheitsforschung}, journal = {Vergleiche innerhalb von Gruppen und institutionelle Gelingensbedingungen. Vielversprechende Perspektiven f{\"u}r die Ungleichheitsforschung}, editor = {Solga, Heike and Brzinsky-Fay, Christian and Graf, Lukas and Gresch, Cornelia and Protsch, Paula}, pages = {40 -- 41}, language = {de} } @article{MunzertBauer, author = {Munzert, Simon and Bauer, Paul}, title = {Political Depolarization in German Public Opinion, 1980-2010}, series = {Political Science Research and Methods}, volume = {1}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1017/psrm.2013.7}, pages = {67 -- 89}, abstract = {Little is known about political polarization in German public opinion. This article offers an issue-based perspective and explores trends of opinion polarization in Germany. Public opinion polarization is conceptualized and measured as alignment of attitudes. Data from the German General Social Survey (1980 to 2010) comprise attitudes towards manifold issues, which are classified into several dimensions. This study estimates multilevel models that reveal general and issue- as well as dimension-specific levels and trends in attitude alignment for both the whole German population and sub-groups. It finds that public opinion polarization has decreased over the last three decades in Germany. In particular, highly educated and more politically interested people have become less polarized over time. However, polarization seems to have increased in attitudes regarding gender issues. These findings provide interesting contrasts to existing research on the American public.}, language = {en} } @article{SelbHerrmannMunzertetal., author = {Selb, Peter and Herrmann, Michael and Munzert, Simon and Sch{\"u}bel, Thomas and Shikano, Susumu}, title = {Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls}, series = {International Journal of Forecasting}, volume = {29}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001}, pages = {541 -- 547}, abstract = {We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters' candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election returns, and redistributing the votes for eliminated competitors according to their supporters' lower-order preferences among the viable alternatives in round two. We argue that the approach is likely to outperform standard pre-election surveys, due to its better coverage and reduced measurement error, and the possibility of correcting for sample selection. We set out the practical details of the method and demonstrate its usefulness by employing a recent German mayoral election as an empirical case. Thirteen candidates were competing in the first round, while there were six candidates in the decisive second round. The runoff result was forecast two weeks in advance with an average absolute error of less than one percentage point.}, language = {en} } @article{SelbMunzert, author = {Selb, Peter and Munzert, Simon}, title = {Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys}, series = {Electoral Studies}, volume = {32}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004}, pages = {186 -- 196}, abstract = {Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.}, language = {en} } @book{Hustedt, author = {Hustedt, Thurid}, title = {Ministerialverwaltung im Wandel}, publisher = {Nomos}, isbn = {9783848707881 (print), 9783845250182 (online)}, doi = {10.5771/9783845250182}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {547}, abstract = {Ankn{\"u}pfend an neuere Forschungsergebnisse zum Verh{\"a}ltnis von Politik und Ministerialverwaltung wird untersucht, wie und warum sich Struktur und Rolle der Leitungsbereiche deutscher und d{\"a}nischer Ministerien seit 1980 gewandelt haben. Die Studie zeigt, dass die Ministerialverwaltungen beider L{\"a}nder unter einem diffusen Anpassungsdruck stehen, der selektiv auf einen Bedeutungszuwachs der Leitungsbereiche hinwirkt, aber unterschiedlich verarbeitet wird. Der l{\"a}nderspezifische Bedeutungszuwachs der Leitungsbereiche wird anhand unterschiedlich wirkender institutioneller Filter erkl{\"a}rt, die auf die jeweilige Institutionalisierung des Verh{\"a}ltnisses von Politik und Verwaltung zur{\"u}ckzuf{\"u}hren sind. Die Untersuchung bietet einen fundierten empirischen Einblick in den Wandel von Organisation und Rollenwahrnehmung der Leitungsbereiche und st{\"o}ßt damit in eine L{\"u}cke der vergleichenden Verwaltungsforschung.}, language = {de} } @article{HustedtSalomonsen, author = {Hustedt, Thurid and Salomonsen, Heidi Houlberg}, title = {Politikberatung durch die Ministerialverwaltung: Funktionale Differenzierung oder Integration unterschiedlicher Wissensformen}, series = {der moderne staat (dms)}, volume = {Sonderheft 1/2013}, journal = {der moderne staat (dms)}, isbn = {9783847401179}, pages = {203 -- 221}, language = {de} }