@article{RuhnauBucksteegRitteretal., author = {Ruhnau, Oliver and Bucksteeg, Michael and Ritter, David and Schmitz, Richard and B{\"o}ttger, Diana and Koch, Matthias and P{\"o}stges, Arne and Wiedmann, Michael and Hirth, Lion}, title = {Why electricity market models yield different results: Carbon pricing in a model-comparison experiment}, doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2021.111701}, abstract = {The European electricity industry, the dominant sector of the world's largest cap-and-trade scheme, is one of the most-studied examples of carbon pricing. In particular, numerical models are often used to study the uncertain future development of carbon prices and emissions. While parameter uncertainty is often addressed through sensitivity analyses, the potential uncertainty of the models themselves remains unclear from existing single-model studies. Here, we investigate such model-related uncertainty by running a structured model comparison experiment, in which we exposed five numerical power sector models to aligned input parameters—finding stark model differences. At a carbon price of 27 EUR/t in 2030, the models estimate that European power sector emissions will decrease by 36-57\% when compared to 2016. Most of this variation can be explained by the extent to which models consider the market-driven decommissioning of coal- and lignite-fired power plants. Higher carbon prices of 57 and 87 EUR/t yield a stronger decrease in carbon emissions, by 45-75\% and 52-80\%, respectively. The lower end of these ranges can be attributed to the short-term fuel switch captured by dispatch-only models. The higher reductions correspond to models that additionally consider market-based investment in renewables. By further studying cross-model variation in the remaining emissions at high carbon prices, we identify the representation of combined heat and power as another crucial driver of differences across model results.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LeviWolfFlachslandetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Levi, Sebastian and Wolf, Ingo and Flachsland, Christian and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Edmondson, Duncan}, title = {Klimaschutz und Verkehr: Zielerreichung nur mit unbequemen Maßnahmen m{\"o}glich. Ariadne-Analyse}, pages = {1-42}, abstract = {Die Klimaschutzziele f{\"u}r das Jahr 2030 sind im Verkehrssektor nur mit starken zus{\"a}tzlichen Treibhausgasreduktionen erreichbar. Die beschlossenen Maßnahmen k{\"o}nnen laut gegenw{\"a}rtigen Projektionen nur einen Bruchteil jener Emissionen reduzieren, welche f{\"u}r die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele im Verkehrssektor notwendig w{\"a}ren. Um die politische Umsetzbarkeit zus{\"a}tzlicher Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu er{\"o}rtern, analysieren wir die Emissionsminderungswirkung und die Bev{\"o}lkerungsakzeptanz von 14 m{\"o}glichen Maßnahmen, basierend auf Drittstudien und eigenen Erhebungen. Wir zeigen, dass die wirkungsst{\"a}rksten Maßnahmen tendenziell eine geringe Zustimmung in der Bev{\"o}lkerung erfahren, wobei die Lastenverteilung keinen sichtbaren Einfluss auf die Bev{\"o}lkerungsakzeptanz hat. Maßnahmen, die in der Bev{\"o}lkerung mehrheitlich unterst{\"u}tzt werden, f{\"u}hren nach gegenw{\"a}rtigen Projektionen nur zu geringen Treibhausgasreduktionen, so dass die Erreichung der Klimaziele 2030 ohne kontroverse Maßnahmen wie h{\"o}here CO2-Preise oder einer fl{\"a}chendeckenden Maut unwahrscheinlich ist. Um die Bef{\"u}rwortung von gegenw{\"a}rtig kontroversen Maßnahmen zu erh{\"o}hen, ist es notwendig, sichtbare R{\"u}ckverteilungsmechanismen zu etablieren, Maßnahmen durch gruppenspezifische Kommunikation zu begleiten und die Einf{\"u}hrung von Politikinstrumenten strategisch zu sequenzieren.}, language = {de} } @techreport{KuehnerJakobFlachsland, type = {Working Paper}, author = {K{\"u}hner, Ann-Kathrin and Jakob, Michael and Flachsland, Christian}, title = {Positionen deutscher Stakeholder zu einem europ{\"a}ischen CO2-Grenzausgleich. Ariadne-Hintergrund.}, pages = {1-39}, abstract = {Die Sorge um „Carbon Leakage" ist ein zentrales Hindernis f{\"u}r eine ambitionierte deutsche und Europ{\"a}ische Klimapolitik und hat in der Vergangenheit zu intensiven politischen Konflikten gef{\"u}hrt. Um angesichts der ambitionierten Klimaziele des Green Deal Carbon Leakage in Zukunft zu verhindern, hat die Europ{\"a}ische Union in ihrem „Fit f{\"u}r 55"-Paket ein CO2-Grenzausgleichssystem (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, CBAM) vorgeschlagen. {\"U}ber den Gesetzesvorschlag der Kommission wird momentan im zust{\"a}ndigen Umweltausschuss des EU-Parlaments beraten. Die Entscheidung des EU-Parlaments wird dann an den Rat der Europ{\"a}ischen Union, nun unter dem Vorsitz Frankreichs, {\"u}bermittelt und dort weiter diskutiert. Die Verordnung soll im Januar 2023 in Kraft treten. Angesichts der Sorgen und politischen Konflikte um m{\"o}gliches Carbon Leakage hat die Frage der Unterst{\"u}tzung und Ablehnung der verschiedenen spezifischen Designelemente eines EU CBAM durch verschiedene Stakeholdergruppen eine hohe politische Relevanz. Vor diesem Hintergrund haben wir mehr als 80 der zentralen Vertreterinnen und Vertreter der deutschen Fachdebatte aus Wirtschaft, Zivilgesellschaft und Wissenschaft sowohl nach ihren grundlegenden Einstellungen als auch zu spezifischen Details der Ausgestaltung eines CBAM befragt. Dabei zeigt sich, dass in Deutschland ein CBAM unter den wichtigsten Stakeholdergruppen durchschnittlich bef{\"u}rwortet wird. Als Hauptdiskussionspunkte identifiziert wurden(1) das Auslaufen der kostenlosen Zuteilung von Emissionsrechten bei Einf{\"u}hrung eines CBAM, (2) die Anwendung eines CBAM nur auf Importe (und nicht auch auf Exporte), (3) die Frage ob und f{\"u}r welche L{\"a}nder Ausnahmen gelten sollten und (4) die Verwendung der CBAM-Einnahmen.}, language = {de} } @techreport{HirthKhannaRuhnau, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Hirth, Lion and Khanna, Tarun and Ruhnau, Oliver}, title = {The (very) short-term price elasticity of German electricity demand}, abstract = {Electricity is a peculiar economic good, the most important reason being that it needs to be supplied at the very moment of consumption. As a result, wholesale electricity prices fluctuate widely at hourly or sub-hourly time scales, regularly reaching multiples of their average, and even turn negative. This paper examines whether the demand for electricity responds to such price variations in the very short term. To solve the classical identification problem when estimating a demand curve, we use weather-driven wind energy generation as an instrument. Our robustness checks confirm that wind energy is indeed a strong and valid instrument. Using data from Germany, we estimate that a 1 €/MWh increase in the wholesale electricity price causes the aggregate electricity demand to decline by 67-80 MW or 0.12-0.14\%, contradicting the conventional wisdom that electricity demand is highly price-inelastic. These estimates are statistically significant and robust across model specifications, estimators, and sensitivity analyses. At average price and demand, our estimates correspond to a price elasticity of demand of about -0.05. Comparing situations with high and low wind energy (5-95th percentile), we estimate that prices vary by 26 €/MWh, and the corresponding demand response to wholesale electricity prices is about 2 GW, or 2.6\% of peak load. Our analysis suggests that the demand response in Germany can be attributed primarily to industrial consumers.}, language = {en} } @techreport{FlachslandausdemMooreMuelleretal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and M{\"u}ller, Thorsten and Kemmerzell, J{\"o}rg and Edmondson, Duncan and G{\"o}rlach, Benjamin and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Knodt, Mich{\`e}le and Knopf, Brigitte and Levi, Sebastian and Luderer, Gunnar and Pahle, Michael}, title = {Wie die Governance der deutschen Klimapolitik gest{\"a}rkt werden kann. Ariadne-Kurzdossier.}, pages = {1-26}, abstract = {Von der Sektorkopplung bis zum Wasserstoff, von der Umsetzung des Klimaschutzgesetzes bis hin zum europ{\"a}ischen Green Deal: Um Klimaneutralit{\"a}t zu erreichen, braucht es eine koordinierte und effektive Politiksteuerung {\"u}ber einzelne Ressorts hinweg. Klimapolitik ist Querschnittsaufgabe, denn von der Stromerzeugung {\"u}ber Industrie, Geb{\"a}ude und Verkehr bis hin zur Landwirtschaft m{\"u}ssen alle Sektoren mit hohem Tempo treibhausgasneutral werden. Fachleute des vom Bundesministerium f{\"u}r Bildung und Forschung BMBF gef{\"o}rderten Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne haben zentrale Probleme der staatlichen Steuerung deutscher Klimapolitik untersucht und L{\"o}sungsoptionen vorgelegt.}, language = {de} } @article{EickeRuhnauHirth, author = {Eicke, Anselm and Ruhnau, Oliver and Hirth, Lion}, title = {Electricity balancing as a market equilibrium: An instrument-based estimation of supply and demand for imbalance energy}, doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105455}, abstract = {Frequency stability requires equalizing supply and demand for electricity at short time scales. Such electricity balancing is often understood as a sequential process in which random shocks, such as weather events, cause imbalances that system operators close by activating balancing reserves. By contrast, we study electricity balancing as a market where the equilibrium price (imbalance price) and quantity (system imbalance) are determined by supply and demand. System operators supply imbalance energy by activating reserves; market parties that, deliberately or not, deviate from schedules create a demand for imbalance energy. The incentives for deliberate strategic deviations emerge from wholesale market prices and the imbalance price. We empirically estimate the demand curve of imbalance energy, which describes how sensitive market parties are to imbalance prices. To overcome the classical endogeneity problem of price and quantity, we deploy instruments derived from a novel theoretical framework. Using data from Germany, we find a decline in the demand for imbalance energy by 2.2 MW for each increase in the imbalance price by EUR 1 per MWh. This significant price response is remarkable because the German regulator prohibits strategic deviations. We also estimate cross-market equilibriums between intraday and imbalance markets, finding that a shock to the imbalance price triggers a subsequent adjustment of the intraday price.}, language = {en} } @article{CloeteRuhnauCloeteetal., author = {Cloete, Schalk and Ruhnau, Oliver and Cloete, Jan Hendrik and Hirth, Lion}, title = {Blue hydrogen and industrial base products: The future of fossil fuel exporters in a net-zero world}, publisher = {Journal of Cleaner Production Vo. 363}, doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132347}, abstract = {Is there a place for today's fossil fuel exporters in a low-carbon future? This study explores trade channels between energy exporters and importers using a novel electricity-hydrogen-steel energy systems model calibrated to Norway, a major natural gas producer, and Germany, a major energy consumer. Under tight emission constraints, Norway can supply Germany with electricity, (blue) hydrogen, or natural gas with re-import of captured CO2. Alternatively, it can use hydrogen to produce steel through direct reduction and supply it to the world market, an export route not available to other energy carriers due to high transport costs. Although results show that natural gas imports with CO2 capture in Germany is the least-cost solution, avoiding local CO2 handling via imports of blue hydrogen (direct or embodied in steel) involves only moderately higher costs. A robust hydrogen demand would allow Norway to profitably export all its natural gas production as blue hydrogen. However, diversification into local steel production, as one example of easy-to-export industrial base products, offers an effective hedge against the possibility of lower European blue hydrogen demand. Thus, it is recommended that hydrocarbon exporters like Norway consider a strategic energy export transition to a diversified mix of blue hydrogen and climate-neutral industrial base products.}, language = {en} }