@techreport{Haas, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Haas, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Euro-Austritt: Ein Notausgang f{\"u}r die W{\"a}hrungsunion?}, pages = {5}, abstract = {Der Euro sieht f{\"u}r seine Mitglieder keine Austrittsoption vor. Einerseits sch{\"u}tzt das die gemeinsame W{\"a}hrung vor spekulativen Angriffen. Andererseits hat die Eurokrise gezeigt, wie schwer es den Eurol{\"a}ndern f{\"a}llt, wirtschafts- und finanzpolitische Konflikte konstruktiv untereinander zu l{\"o}sen. Warum wurde der Euro als Einbahnstraße entworfen? Was w{\"a}ren die Folgen einer Austrittsoption? Und welche Alternativen gibt es zu einem Austritt?}, language = {de} } @article{BeckerHaasHefekeretal., author = {Becker, Peter and Haas, J{\"o}rg and Hefeker, Carsten and Hindelang, Steffen and Eichenhofer, Eberhard and Tietje, Christian and Wixforth, Susanne and von Ondarza, Nicolai and Repasi, Ren{\´e} and Deutsch, Klaus G{\"u}nter and Mair, Stefan and Felbermayr, Gabriel}, title = {Die Verhandlungen zum Brexit: Finanzielle und wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {70}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {11}, issn = {2199-4455}, pages = {3 -- 40}, abstract = {Der Austritt des Vereinigten K{\"o}nigreichs aus der Europ{\"a}ischen Union besch{\"a}ftigte am 24. April 2017 den Europaausschuss des Bundestags. In einer {\"o}ffentlichen Anh{\"o}rung nahmen einige Experten zum einen zu den finanziellen Auswirkungen und den wechselseitigen Verpflichtungen, zum anderen zu Statusfragen und wirtschaftlichen Aspekten des Brexit Stellung. Nach Ansicht von Peter Becker, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, w{\"a}re der beste Verhandlungsauftakt zun{\"a}chst eine Verst{\"a}ndigung beider Verhandlungspartner auf eine pragmatische Vorgehensweise. Das beste Verhandlungsergebnis aus Sicht der EU w{\"a}re, den aktuellen Mehrj{\"a}hrigen Finanzrahmen unver{\"a}ndert auslaufen zu lassen. J{\"o}rg Haas, Jacques Delors Institut, weist darauf hin, dass der Brexit zwar eine L{\"u}cke in den Haushalt der Europ{\"a}ischen Union reißt, aber auch neue Chancen er{\"o}ffnet. Der Wegfall des Britenrabatts vereinfache das Finanzierungssystem und erm{\"o}gliche es, komplizierte Verfahren zu ersetzen. Carsten Hefeker, Universit{\"a}t Siegen, sieht M{\"o}glichkeiten, {\"u}ber neue und zukunftstr{\"a}chtige Wege einer engen Kooperation mit Drittstaaten wie dem UK, der Schweiz und anderen L{\"a}ndern in der engeren Nachbarschaft nachzudenken. Das EWR-Modell habe sich {\"u}berholt, weil viele der aktuellen Mitgliedsl{\"a}nder und auch der Drittstaaten kein Interesse mehr an Personenfreiz{\"u}gigkeit haben. Steffen Hindelang, Freie Universit{\"a}t Berlin, h{\"a}lt als Ergebnis fest, dass kein Anspruch Großbritanniens auf einen Anteil an den Verm{\"o}gensg{\"u}tern der EU bei Austritt bestehe, dagegen m{\"u}sse das Land seine in der Vergangenheit eingegangenen Zahlungsverpflichtungen gegen{\"u}ber der Union auch nach Austritt erf{\"u}llen. Eberhard Eichenhofer, Universit{\"a}t Jena, unterstreicht, dass mit dem Ende der Mitgliedschaft eines Staates s{\"a}mtliche sich aus dem Europ{\"a}ischen koordinierenden Sozialrecht ergebenden Bindungen entfallen. EU-B{\"u}rger werden gegen{\"u}ber dem vorherrschenden Rechtszustand zahlreiche Nachteile zu gew{\"a}rtigen haben. Und auch Christian Tietje, Universit{\"a}t Halle-Wittenberg, betont, dass es zur Neuregelung der Statusrechte von Unionsb{\"u}rgern und juristischen Personen der EU-Mitgliedstaaten einer v{\"o}lkervertraglichen Festlegung zwischen der EU und Großbritannien bedarf. Nach Einsch{\"a}tzung von Susanne Wixforth, DGB, lassen die gesteckten Verhandlungspositionen nur eine geringe gemeinsame Schnittmenge erkennen. Nicolai von Ondarza, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin, sieht die Verhandlungen zwischen der EU und Großbritannien {\"u}ber ihre zuk{\"u}nftigen Beziehungen nach dem Brexit unter einem politischen Primat, so dass trotz enger wirtschaftlicher Verpflichtungen beide Seiten auf eine harte Verhandlungsposition zusteuern. Ren{\´e} Repasi, EURO-CEFG, skizziert die Rechte, die bei dem Brexit wegfallen w{\"u}rden, und diskutiert die M{\"o}glichkeiten, den Fortbestand dieser Rechte zu sichern. Klaus G{\"u}nter Deutsch und Stefan Mair, BDI, rechnen mit massiven St{\"o}rungen im Wirtschaftsverkehr. Der Brexit k{\"o}nne per se kein wirtschaftlicher Erfolg werden. Nach den Berechnungen von Gabriel Felbermayr, ifo Institut, werden f{\"u}r beide Seiten, gleichg{\"u}ltig wie die zuk{\"u}nftigen wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen zwischen der EU 27 und Großbritannien geregelt werden, {\"o}konomische Kosten entstehen, wobei im Durchschnitt die verbleibenden EU-Mitglieder weniger als das Vereinigte K{\"o}nigreich verlieren werden.}, language = {de} } @incollection{EnderleinGnathHaas, author = {Enderlein, Henrik and Gnath, Katharina and Haas, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Deutschland und die Stabilit{\"a}t der Wirtschafts- und W{\"a}hrungsunion}, series = {Handbuch zur deutschen Europapolitik}, booktitle = {Handbuch zur deutschen Europapolitik}, editor = {B{\"o}ttger, Katrin and Jopp, Mathias}, publisher = {Nomos}, address = {Baden-Baden}, isbn = {978-3-8452-7412-6}, doi = {10.5771/9783845274126-246}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {246 -- 259}, abstract = {In der Gr{\"u}ndungsphase der W{\"a}hrungsunion konzentrierten sich die deutschen Forderungen auf niedrige Inflationsraten und geringe Staatsverschuldung. Mit Beginn der Krise wurde jedoch deutlich, dass der deutsche Stabilit{\"a}tsgedanke sehr eng gefasst war. Neben der fehlenden Haushaltsdisziplin trugen andere Faktoren maßgeblich zur Instabilit{\"a}t der Eurozone bei: Sowohl Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte, als auch das Fehlen von Instrumenten zum Krisenmanagement und die gef{\"a}hrlichen selbstverst{\"a}rkenden Dynamiken zwischen geschw{\"a}chten Banken und {\"u}berschuldeten Staaten wurden vor der Krise weitgehend ignoriert. Im Verlauf der Krise hat die deutsche Regierung an ihrer traditionellen Vorstellung von Stabilit{\"a}t durch Kontrolle und {\"U}berwachung der Mitgliedsstaaten festgehalten. Zugleich hat Deutschland auch immer wieder pragmatisch gehandelt, um die Eurozone zu erhalten. So war das Land maßgeblich an der Schaffung des Europ{\"a}ischen Stabilit{\"a}tsmechanismus und dem Aufbau einer Bankenunion beteiligt und tolerierte eine Reihe von außergew{\"o}hnlichen Maßnahmen der EZB. Trotz der Reformbem{\"u}hungen der letzten Jahre weist die Eurozone weiterhin Konstruktionsfehler auf, die die Stabilit{\"a}t der gemeinsamen W{\"a}hrung ernsthaft gef{\"a}hrden. Unter den Mitgliedsstaaten herrscht jedoch Uneinigkeit {\"u}ber die richtige Euro-Architektur: In der aktuellen Reform-Debatte prallen unterschiedliche Wahrnehmungen der Probleme und unterschiedliche politische Pr{\"a}ferenzen f{\"u}r die Zukunft der Eurozone aufeinander. Die deutsche Europapolitik sollte sich um eine konstruktive Rolle in den notwendigen anstehenden Reformen bem{\"u}hen. Hierbei gilt es auszubuchstabieren, unter welchen Umst{\"a}nden eine erh{\"o}hte Risikoteilung in der Eurozone f{\"u}r Deutschland tragbar w{\"a}re.}, language = {de} } @techreport{HaasRubio, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Haas, J{\"o}rg and Rubio, Eulalia}, title = {The Future of the European Budget. What does the Commission's White Paper mean for EU Finances?}, pages = {12}, abstract = {In its recent White Paper, the European Commission describes scenarios for the future of European integration and imagines what the EU could look like by 2025. As a contribution to the ongoing debate, this paper outlines what the different scenarios might mean for the EU budget.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GnathHaas, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Gnath, Katharina and Haas, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Eine Fiskalunion f{\"u}r Europa: Baustein, kein Allheilmittel}, series = {ifo Schnelldienst}, volume = {68}, journal = {ifo Schnelldienst}, number = {20}, abstract = {Die W{\"a}hrungsunion steckt in einer historischen Krise. Die dramatischen Verhandlungen mit Griechenland in den letz­ten Monaten haben die Schw{\"a}chen des Euroraums deut­lich in Erinnerung gerufen. Die meisten Kommentatoren sind sich einig: Damit die W{\"a}hrungsunion langfristig kri­senfest und stabil wird, muss sie in entscheidenden Punk­ten reformiert werden. Wenig Einigkeit herrscht jedoch {\"u}ber das »Was« und »Wie«. Vor allem um weitere Inte­grationsschritte in der Fiskalpolitik wird derzeit heftig ge­stritten. Dieser Beitrag argumentiert, dass eine Fiskalunion nur dann stabilisieren kann, wenn sie sowohl glaubw{\"u}rdige Haushalts­regeln als auch Elemente der Teilung von Risiko umfasst. Sie ist ein wichtiges Mittel zur wirksamen St{\"a}rkung der Eu­rozone, darf aber nicht das einzige bleiben. Ein strukturierter Verhandlungsprozess ist nun n{\"o}tig, um ein tragbares Re­formpakt zu schn{\"u}ren und zwischenstaatliches Misstrauen zu {\"u}berwinden.}, language = {de} } @phdthesis{Jugl, author = {Jugl, Marlene}, title = {Country Size and State Performance: How Size Affects Politics, Administration and Governance}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3680}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36808}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {139}, abstract = {This dissertation addresses the question how the size of a country affects the performance of ist political and administrative system. It advances the literature on small states by explicitly theorizing large states and empirically comparing countries of different sizes. Country size, operationalized as population size, is expected to be related to three clusters of country characteristics: First, a perception of vulnerability in small states vs. a lack of awareness for external threats in large states; second, social homogeneity and proximity in small states vs. heterogeneity and distance in large states; third, institutional centralization and concentration of power in small states vs. specialization and de-centralization in large states. The effect of country size and these three characteristic features on different aspects of procedural state performance is analyzed in three empirical chapters. Chapter 2 develops the argument that small country size favors the stability of political regimes, namely authoritarian monarchies. It iterates between theoretical reflections and the empirical analysis of different data: statistical data on population size and monarchic regime durability between 1946 and 2008; two most similar comparative cases of monarchic regimes, Egypt and Jordan; and supposedly deviant cases. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of population size on the effectiveness of national bureaucracies and expects a trade-off between economies and diseconomies of scale. It estimates multivariate OLS regression models and within-between random effects models for more than 150 countries. The analysis supports the hypothesized inverse U-shaped relation and finds that administrative effectiveness is highest, ceteris paribus, at medium levels of population size. Chapter 4 consists of a comparative case study of Germany and Luxembourg and investigates whether country size affected how the two states prepared for and reacted to the 2015 migration crisis. The analysis builds on newspaper articles and 20 expert interviews. It shows that Luxembourg's small size favored identities and structures that allowed early crisis recognition and preparation as well as swift communication and coordination, whereas Germany's large size led to attention biases that inhibited a quick reaction. In sum, the findings show that country size affects several aspects of state performance, which has important normative and practical implications.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KrishnanDeoSontakke, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Krishnan, Sanjana and Deo, Sahil and Sontakke, Neha}, title = {Operationalizing algorithmic explainability in the context of risk profiling done by robo financial advisory apps}, pages = {54}, abstract = {Robo Advisors are financial advisory apps that profile users into risk classes before providing financial advice. This risk profiling of users is of functional importance and is legally mandatory. Irregularities at this primary step will lead to incorrect recommenda- tions for the users. Further, lack of transparency and explanations for these automated decisions makes it tougher for users and regulators to understand the rationale behind the advice given by these apps, leading to a trust deficit. Regulators monitor this pro- filing but possess no independent toolkit to "demystify" the black box or adequately explain the decision-making process of the robo financial advisor. Our paper proposes an approach towards developing a 'RegTech tool' that can explain the robo advisors decision making. We use machine learning models to reverse engi- neer the importance of features in the black-box algorithm used by the robo advisor for risk profiling and provide three levels of explanation. First, we find the importance of inputs used in the risk profiling algorithm. Second, we infer relationships between inputs and with the assigned risk classes. Third, we allow regulators to explain decisions for any given user profile, in order to 'spot check' a random data point. With these three explanation methods, we provide regulators, who lack the technical knowledge to understand algorithmic decisions, a method to understand it and ensure that the risk-profiling done by robo advisory applications comply with the regulations they are subjected to.}, language = {en} } @article{Mejia, author = {Mej{\´i}a, Luis E.}, title = {Judicial review of regulatory decisions: Decoding the contents of appeals against agencies in Spain and the United Kingdom}, series = {Regulation \& Governance}, journal = {Regulation \& Governance}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons Australia, Ltd}, address = {Melbourne}, doi = {10.1111/rego.12302}, pages = {n/a -- n/a}, abstract = {Abstract Despite the important role that courts play to supervise the legality of regulatory agencies' actions, only few comparative studies analyze the contents of judicial appeals against regulatory decisions within European countries. This paper builds on the comparative administrative law scholarship and administrative capacities literature to analyze the content of 2,040 rulings against decisions issued by competition and telecommunications regulators in Spain and the United Kingdom. To understand the substance of the appeals, the study classifies cases according to the alleged administrative principles under breach and the regulatory capacities under challenge. Findings show a clear country-sector variation regarding the information contained in judicial disputes for both dimensions of analysis, which can be explained as a result of existing differences between the institutional settings of courts. These results offer a more in depth understanding of the political role of judicial oversight over regulatory agencies embedded in different institutional arrangements and policy sectors.}, subject = {-}, language = {en} } @article{HaasD'ErmanSchulzetal., author = {Haas, J{\"o}rg and D'Erman, Valerie and Schulz, Daniel and Verdun, Amy}, title = {Economic and fiscal policy coordination after the crisis: is the European Semester promoting more or less state intervention?}, series = {Journal of European Integration}, volume = {42}, journal = {Journal of European Integration}, number = {3}, issn = {1477-2280}, doi = {10.1080/07036337.2020.1730356}, pages = {327 -- 344}, abstract = {The European Union (EU) - and its Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in particular - is often criticized as a predominantly market-oriented project. We analyse to what extent such claims can be substantiated by focusing on one key aspect of the EU's post-crisis framework for economic governance: the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) that the EU has been issuing annually since 2011. Based on an original dataset, we analyse more than 1300 CSRs, which show that the EU does not push uniformly for less state intervention. Rather, the CSRs tend to suggest fiscal restraint and less protection for labour market insiders, while simultaneously promoting measures that benefit vulnerable groups in society. During the second decade of EMU, CSRs have gradually become more permissive of higher public spending and more in favour of worker protection, while the share of recommendations advocating more social protection has stagnated at a high level.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{DariusStephany, author = {Darius, Philipp and Stephany, Fabian}, title = {How the Far-Right Polarises Twitter: 'Highjacking' Hashtags in Times of COVID-19}, doi = {10.31235/osf.io/n6f3r}, abstract = {Twitter influences political debates. Phenomena like fake news and hate speech show that political discourse on micro-blogging can become strongly polarised by algorithmic enforcement of selective perception. Some political actors actively employ strategies to facilitate polarisation on Twitter, as past contributions show, via strategies of 'hashjacking'. For the example of COVID-19 related hashtags and their retweet networks, we examine the case of partisan accounts of the German far-right party Alternative f{\"u}r Deutschland (AfD) and their potential use of 'hashjacking' in May 2020. Our findings indicate that polarisation of political party hashtags has not changed significantly in the last two years. We see that right-wing partisans are actively and effectively polarising the discourse by 'hashjacking' COVID-19 related hashtags, like \#CoronaVirusDE or \#FlattenTheCurve. This polarisation strategy is dominated by the activity of a limited set of heavy users. The results underline the necessity to understand the dynamics of discourse polarisation, as an active political communication strategy of the far-right, by only a handful of very active accounts.}, language = {en} } @techreport{StephanyStoehrDariusetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Stephany, Fabian and Stoehr, Niklas and Darius, Philipp and Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Teutloff, Ole and Braesemann, Fabian}, title = {The CoRisk-Index: A data-mining approach to identify industry-specific risk assessments related to COVID-19 in real-time}, series = {General Economics (econ.GN)}, journal = {General Economics (econ.GN)}, abstract = {While the coronavirus spreads, governments are attempting to reduce contagion rates at the expense of negative economic effects. Market expectations plummeted, foreshadowing the risk of a global economic crisis and mass unemployment. Governments provide huge financial aid programmes to mitigate the economic shocks. To achieve higher effectiveness with such policy measures, it is key to identify the industries that are most in need of support. In this study, we introduce a data-mining approach to measure industry-specific risks related to COVID-19. We examine company risk reports filed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This alternative data set can complement more traditional economic indicators in times of the fast-evolving crisis as it allows for a real-time analysis of risk assessments. Preliminary findings suggest that the companies' awareness towards corona-related business risks is ahead of the overall stock market developments. Our approach allows to distinguish the industries by their risk awareness towards COVID-19. Based on natural language processing, we identify corona-related risk topics and their perceived relevance for different industries. The preliminary findings are summarised as an up-to-date online index. The CoRisk-Index tracks the industry-specific risk assessments related to the crisis, as it spreads through the economy. The tracking tool is updated weekly. It could provide relevant empirical data to inform models on the economic effects of the crisis. Such complementary empirical information could ultimately help policymakers to effectively target financial support in order to mitigate the economic shocks of the crisis.}, language = {en} } @incollection{DariusStephany, author = {Darius, Philipp and Stephany, Fabian}, title = {"Hashjacking" the Debate: Polarisation Strategies of Germany's Political Far-Right on Twitter}, series = {Social Informatics. SocInfo 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 11864}, volume = {11846}, booktitle = {Social Informatics. SocInfo 2019. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 11864}, editor = {Weber (et al.), Ingmar}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, issn = {978-3-030-34971-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-34971-4_21}, pages = {298 -- 308}, abstract = {Twitter is a digital forum for political discourse. The emergence of phenomena like fake news and hate speech has shown that political discourse on micro-blogging can become strongly polarised by algorithmic enforcement of selective perception. Recent findings suggest that some political actors might employ strategies to actively facilitate polarisation on Twitter. With a network approach, we examine the case of the German far-right party Alternative f{\"u}r Deutschland (AfD) and their potential use of a "hashjacking" strategy (The use of someone else's hashtag in order to promote one's own social media agenda.). Our findings suggest that right-wing politicians (and their supporters/retweeters) actively and effectively polarise the discourse not just by using their own party hashtags, but also by "hashjacking" the political party hashtags of other established parties. The results underline the necessity to understand the success of right-wing parties, online and in elections, not entirely as a result of external effects (e.g. migration), but as a direct consequence of their digital political communication strategy.}, language = {en} } @incollection{EfflandHoelzelKlatzeretal., author = {Effland, Alexander and H{\"o}lzel, Michael and Klatzer, Teresa and Kobler, Erich and Landsberg, Jennifer and Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Pock, Thomas and Rumpf, Martin}, title = {Variational Networks for Joint Image Reconstruction and Classification of Tumor Immune Cell Interactions in Melanoma Tissue Sections}, series = {Bildverarbeitung f{\"u}r die Medizin 2018. Informatik aktuell.}, booktitle = {Bildverarbeitung f{\"u}r die Medizin 2018. Informatik aktuell.}, editor = {Maier (et al.), Andreas}, publisher = {Springer Vieweg}, address = {Berlin, Heidelberg}, issn = {978-3-662-56537-7}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-662-56537-7_86}, pages = {334 -- 340}, abstract = {Immunotherapy is currently revolutionizing the treatment of cancer. Detailed analyses of tumor immune cell interaction in the tumor microenvironment will facilitate an accurate prediction of a patient's clinical response. The automatic and reliable pre-screening of histological tissue sections for tumor infiltrating immune cells (TILs) will support the development of TIL-based predictive biomarkers for checkpoint immunotherapy. In this paper, a learning approach for image classification is presented, which allows various pattern inquires for different types of tissue section images. The underlying trainable reaction diffusion model combines classification and denoising. The model is trained using a stochastic generation of training data. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated for immunofluorescent and for Hematoxylin and Eosin (H\&E) stained melanoma section images. A particular focus is on the classification of TILs in the proximity to melanoma cells in an experimental melanoma mouse model and in human melanoma. This new learning approach for images of melanoma tissue sections will refine the strategy for the practical clinical application of biomarker research.}, language = {en} } @article{EfflandKoblerBrandenburgetal., author = {Effland, Alexander and Kobler, Erich and Brandenburg, Anne and Klatzer, Teresa and Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and H{\"o}lzel, Michael and Landsberg, Jennifer and Pock, Thomas and Rumpf, Martin}, title = {Joint reconstruction and classification of tumor cells and cell interactions in melanoma tissue sections with synthesized training data}, series = {International Journal of Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery}, volume = {14}, journal = {International Journal of Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery}, issn = {1861-6429}, doi = {10.1007/s11548-019-01919-z}, pages = {587 -- 599}, abstract = {Purpose Cancers are almost always diagnosed by morphologic features in tissue sections. In this context, machine learning tools provide new opportunities to describe tumor immune cell interactions within the tumor microenvironment and thus provide phenotypic information that might be predictive for the response to immunotherapy. Methods We develop a machine learning approach using variational networks for joint image denoising and classification of tissue sections for melanoma, which is an established model tumor for immuno-oncology research. The manual annotation of real training data would require substantial user interaction of experienced pathologists for each single training image, and the training of larger networks would rely on a very large number of such data sets with ground truth annotation. To overcome this bottleneck, we synthesize training data together with a proper tissue structure classification. To this end, a stochastic data generation process is used to mimic cell morphology, cell distribution and tissue architecture in the tumor microenvironment. Particular components of this tool are random placement and rotation of a large number of patches for presegmented cell nuclei, a stochastic fast marching approach to mimic the geometry of cells and texture generation based on a color covariance analysis of real data. Here, the generated training data reflect a large range of interaction patterns. Results In several applications to histological tissue sections, we analyze the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed approach. As a result, depending on the scenario considered, almost all cells and nuclei which ought to be detected are actually marked as classified and hardly any misclassifications occur. Conclusions The proposed method allows for a computer-aided screening of histological tissue sections utilizing variational networks with a particular emphasis on tumor immune cell interactions and on the robust cell nuclei classification.}, language = {en} } @article{NeuhaeuserMellorLambiotte, author = {Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Mellor, Andrew and Lambiotte, Renaud}, title = {Multi-body Interactions and Non-Linear Consensus Dynamics on Networked Systems}, series = {Physical Review E}, volume = {101}, journal = {Physical Review E}, number = {3}, issn = {2470-0053}, doi = {10.1103/PhysRevE.101.032310}, abstract = {Multi-body interactions can reveal higher-order dynamical effects that are not captured by traditional two-body network models. In this work, we derive and analyse models for consensus dynamics on hypergraphs, where nodes interact in groups rather than in pairs. Our work reveals that multi-body dynamical effects that go beyond rescaled pairwise interactions can only appear if the interaction function is non-linear, regardless of the underlying multi-body structure. As a practical application, we introduce a specific non-linear function to model three-body consensus, which incorporates reinforcing group effects such as peer pressure. Unlike consensus processes on networks, we find that the resulting dynamics can cause shifts away from the average system state. The nature of these shifts depends on a complex interplay between the distribution of the initial states, the underlying structure and the form of the interaction function. By considering modular hypergraphs, we discover state-dependent, asymmetric dynamics between polarised clusters where multi-body interactions make one cluster dominate the other.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Niklas, author = {Niklas, Kossow}, title = {Digitizing Collective Action: How Digital Technologies Support Civil Society's Struggle against Corruption}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3702}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37029}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {128}, abstract = {This dissertation looks at the use of digital technologies in anti-corruption. It thereby responds to the increasing prominence of the fight against corruption as a research topic, and issue to address for activists and politicians around the world, as well as the ever-growing impact of digitalisation on governance. It answers the research question in what way and how effectively information and communication technology contribute to the control of corruption. In its first part, this dissertation provides an overview of the past twenty years of academic publications on the use and the effectiveness of digital technologies in anti-corruption. I structure the available literature according to its level of analysis, looking at theoretical and large-n studies compared to case specific and qualitative work. I also structure it according to the mechanism that is linking different technologies to a better control of corruption, namely e-government access, upward transparency, downward transparency and mobilisation. In doing so, it highlights gaps in the literature and open questions to research. Subsequently, I am zooming in on the role of civil society in its use of digital technologies, arguing that digital technologies are a tool that can support the role of civil society in controlling corruption. This argument builds on anti-corruption theories and thus lays the groundwork for testing it in two different settings. First, I provide evidence from a global, quantitative dataset, using marginal effects analysis to provide evidence for a positive correlation of civil society capacity, access to information and communication technology and better control of corruption. Second, I analyse a case study, looking at the use of e-procurement in Ukraine since 2014. I am testing if different civil society capacities in Ukrainian regions had an impact on corruption risks measured in Ukrainian tenders. While the quantitative data analysis gives clear, positive results concerning the relationship described above, the case study on Ukraine does not offer conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of civil society capacity and ICT access in the fight against corruption. The dissertation concludes by calling for future research into this relationship, especially by using data on public procurement.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{BerenbergGossler, author = {Berenberg-Gossler, Paul}, title = {Financial Integration and Regulation: Essays in Macroeconomics}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37189}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {131}, abstract = {This thesis consists of three chapters investigating the interactions between the financial and real sector. It provides new evidence on (i) the correlation between portfolio investment integration and business cycle synchronization, (ii) financial regulation and how it is driven by the business cycle, and (iii) electoral incentives influencing financial regulators. Chapter 1 analyses the correlation between cross-border portfolio investment integration and business cycle synchronization. Using data on 29 advanced economies' cross-border financial asset holdings, it shows that portfolio investment integration correlates positively with business cycle synchronization when faced with idiosyncratic shocks. However, it correlates negatively when faced with common or global shocks. Chapter 2, coauthored with Gon{\c{c}}alo Pina, employs a text-mining approach to build a new dataset on regulatory actions against the US financial advisor industry. Employing a Bartik shift-share instrument, it provides causal evidence that regulatory actions are driven by the business cycle. Chapter 3, coauthored with Gon{\c{c}}alo Pina, discusses the political economy of regulatory actions against the US financial advisor industry. It shows that regulators consistently delay punishment against firms prior to gubernatorial elections.}, language = {en} } @incollection{MadlenerRuhnau, author = {Madlener, Reinhard and Ruhnau, Oliver}, title = {Variable renewables and demand flexibility: Day-ahead versus intraday valuation}, series = {Variable Generation, Flexible Demand}, booktitle = {Variable Generation, Flexible Demand}, editor = {Sioshansi, Fereidoon}, publisher = {Academic Press}, isbn = {9780128238103}, doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-823810-3.00005-4}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {309 -- 327}, abstract = {This chapter discusses trading in the day-ahead and intraday electricity markets, first in general and then from the perspectives of renewable power generators and demand response, respectively. This includes an overview of the relevant literature, a theoretical framework, and illustrative quantitative examples. The uncertainty of renewable electricity supply drives price volatility, especially in the intraday market, and leads to balancing cost for renewables, which can be optimized through forecasting and trading. The increased intraday price volatility can be exploited and moderated by demand response, which thereby helps to balance the uncertainty of renewables.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Linek, author = {Linek, Maximilian}, title = {Measures to Influence Individual Behavior: Four Essays in Economics}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3725}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37255}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {118}, abstract = {This dissertation in economics studies the effects of changing individuals' choice environments on their behavior. The choice environment is the setting within which an individual makes her decision. It is widely acknowledged that even inconspicuous changes to this environment can have strong effects on behavior. This notion has spurred large efforts in the public and private sector to design these environments and steer behavior. The dissertation studies four measures that change choice environments to achieve public and private objectives. The first chapter investigates the effects of community meetings on behavior changes that were desired by the central government in Rwanda. It studies these effects with and without performance incentives for local leaders and sheds light on who controls meetings and how they operate. The second chapter studies expected effects of Basic Income on time use, deploying a large-scale survey experiment. The results show intended reallocations that may contribute to foster social cohesion in society. In addition, the chapter suggests its methodology as a new approach to explore policies that are difficult or costly to test. Finally, the third and fourth chapter study the effects of social information and defaults in online donations. The third chapter shows that the empirical regularity of conditional cooperation fails. The fourth and last chapter explores the complex relationship between different numbers and values of donation amount defaults.}, language = {en} } @article{JergO'ReillySchulzeBuschoff, author = {Jerg, Lukas and O'Reilly, Jacqueline and Schulze Buschoff, Karin}, title = {Adapting social protection to the needs of multiple jobholders in Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany}, series = {Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research}, volume = {27}, journal = {Transfer: European Review of Labour and Research}, number = {2}, issn = {1996-7284}, doi = {10.1177/1024258921991039}, pages = {237 -- 253}, abstract = {Working in two or more jobs at the same time creates special needs in terms of social security that differ from those of standard dependent employees or the self-employed. To investigate how well social security systems adapt to multiple jobholders we examine three case studies of countries with different levels and trends in multiple jobholding: Denmark, the United Kingdom and Germany. We review recent trends and policies to address social protection gaps for multiple jobholders in these countries prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the extent to which the emergence of the 'platform economy' can exacerbate multiple jobholding. We conclude that attempts to resolve the gaps in social security protection reflect distinctive characteristics of each employment system.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Ruhnau, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ruhnau, Oliver}, title = {Market-based renewables: How flexible hydrogen electrolyzers stabilize wind and solar market values}, pages = {14}, abstract = {Wind and solar energy are often expected to fall victim to their own success: the higher their share in electricity production, the more their revenue on electricity markets (their "market value") declines. While in conventional power systems, the market value may converge to zero, this study demonstrates that "green" hydrogen production, through adding electricity demand in low-price hours, can effectively and permanently halt the decline. With an analytical derivation, a Monte Carlo simulation, and a numerical electricity market model, I find that - due to flexible hydrogen production - market values in 2050 likely converge above €19 ± 9 per MWh for solar energy and above €27 ± 8 per MWh for wind energy. This is in the range of the projected levelized costs of renewables and has profound implications. Market-based renewables may hence be within reach.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Bogoeski, author = {Bogoeski, Vladimir}, title = {The Aftermath of the Laval Quartet: Emancipating labour (law) from the rationality of the internal market in the field of posting}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37171}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {381}, abstract = {The Laval Quartet rulings of the CJEU have become an indispensable reference in every discussion on the social dimension of the European integration process over the past decade. Becoming a synonym for the subordination of labour rights and social goals to market freedoms, the rulings have raised different questions, the most pressing one being about the relationship between the economic and the social sphere of the EU as an emerging polity. The dissertation enquires into the question to what extent that relationship has been reconfigured in the aftermath of the Quartet rulings. Starting with the rulings themselves through a law in context approach, the dissertation studied a segment of the aftermath in the period following the rulings (2008-2019). While the aftermath has played out at various levels of EU's multi-level governance structure, this study focuses on the supranational macro-level, examining the development of the subsequent CJEU case law and the EU-level political responses. The thesis makes the argument that due to the countermovement that the rulings have quickly triggered at EU and Member State level, a political struggle over the social in the EU has emerged, demonstrating the difficulty of conceiving of the EU as a common social space in conditions of diversity, a strong core-periphery division and governance structures dominated by market rationality. Particularly the developments in the field of posting of workers, starting with the Quartet and ending with the Revised Posted Workers Directive, reveal three important insights for the integration process more broadly. First, the existing material inequality and differences in economic development among Member States in enlarged EU, of which the Quartet was an early symptom, have buttressed the European regulatory space as a space of conflict between the core and the peripheries. Second, resolving core-periphery conflicts has distributional consequences, which are particularly visible in the context of labour and social questions. Resolving such conflicts requires an EU common conception of (social) justice, which appears particularly difficult to conceive of in the core-periphery constellation. Third, progressive social solutions mostly remain foreclosed, as in both cases, at the Court as well as in the political realm, these are mostly contested within a framework dominated by market rationality.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{NeuhaeuserSchaubMelloretal., author = {Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Schaub, Michael and Mellor, Andrew and Lambiotte, Renaud}, title = {Opinion Dynamics with Multi-Body Interactions}, series = {Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)}, journal = {Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)}, edition = {arXiv:2004.00901 [physics.soc-ph]}, abstract = {We introduce and analyse a three-body consensus model (3CM) for non-linear consensus dynamics on hypergraphs. Our model incorporates reinforcing group effects, which can cause shifts in the average state of the system even in if the underlying graph is complete (corresponding to a mean-field interaction), a phenomena that may be interpreted as a type of peer pressure. We further demonstrate that for systems with two clustered groups, already a small asymmetry in our dynamics can lead to the opinion of one group becoming clearly dominant. We show that the nonlinearity in the model is the essential ingredient to make such group dynamics appear, and demonstrate how our system can otherwise be written as a linear, pairwise interaction system on a rescaled network.}, language = {en} } @techreport{SahasrabuddheNeuhaeuserLambiotte, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Sahasrabuddhe, Rohit and Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Lambiotte, Renaud}, title = {Modelling Non-Linear Consensus Dynamics on Hypergraphs}, series = {Physics and Society}, journal = {Physics and Society}, edition = {arXiv:2007.09391v1 [physics.soc-ph] 18 Jul 2020}, abstract = {The basic interaction unit of many dynamical systems involves more than two nodes. In such situations where networks are not an appropriate modelling framework, it has recently become increasingly popular to turn to higher-order models, including hypergraphs. In this paper, we explore the non-linear dynamics of consensus on hypergraphs, allowing for interactions within hyperedges of any cardinality. After discussing the different ways in which non-linearities can be incorporated in the dynamical model, building on different sociological theories, we explore its mathematical properties and perform simulations to investigate them numerically. After focussing on synthetic hypergraphs, namely on block hypergraphs, we investigate the dynamics on real-world structures, and explore in detail the role of involvement and stubbornness on polarisation.}, language = {en} } @techreport{StammNeuhaeuserLemmerichetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Stamm, Felix I. and Neuh{\"a}user, Leonie and Lemmerich, Florian and Schaub, Michael T. and Strohmaier, Markus}, title = {Systematic edge uncertainty in attributed social networks and its effects on rankings of minority nodes}, series = {Social and Information Networks}, journal = {Social and Information Networks}, edition = {arXiv:2010.11546 [cs.SI]}, abstract = {Network analysis provides powerful tools to learn about a variety of social systems. However, most analyses implicitly assume that the considered data is error-free and reliable. Especially if the network consists of multiple groups, this assumption conflicts with the range of systematic reporting biases, measurement errors and other inaccuracies that are well documented in our community. In this paper, we model how such systematic uncertainty on edges of an attributed network can impact network analysis, in particular the ranking of nodes. We discuss how erroneous edge observations can be driven by external node attributes and the relative edge positions in the network, thereby opening a path towards a systematic study of the effects of edge-uncertainty for various network analysis tasks. To show how conclusions drawn from network analyses can get distorted due to such inaccuracies, we focus on the effects of edge-uncertainty on minority group representations in degree-based rankings. For that purpose, we analyze synthetic and real networks with varying homophily and group sizes. We find that introducing edge uncertainty can significantly alter the relative density of networks and result both in a strongly increased or decreased ranking of the minority, depending on the type of edge error and homophily. Our model enables researchers to include systematic edge-uncertainty in their analyses and thereby better account for the role of minorities in social networks.}, language = {en} } @article{EickeKhannaHirth, author = {Eicke, Anselm and Khanna, Tarun and Hirth, Lion}, title = {Locational Investment Signals: How to Steer the Siting of New Generation Capacity in Power Systems?}, series = {The Energy Journal}, volume = {41}, journal = {The Energy Journal}, number = {6}, doi = {10.5547/01956574.41.6.aeic}, pages = {281 -- 304}, abstract = {New generators located far from consumption centers require transmission infrastructure and increase network losses. The primary objective of this paper is to study signals that affect the location of generation investment. Such signals result from the electricity market itself and from additional regulatory instruments. We cluster them into five groups: locational electricity markets, deep grid connection charges, grid usage charges, capacity mechanisms, and renewable energy support schemes. We review the use of instruments in twelve major power systems and discuss relevant properties, including a quantitative estimate of their strength. We find that most systems use multiple instruments in parallel, and none of the identified instruments prevails. The signals vary between locations by up to 20 EUR per MWh. Such a difference is significant when compared to the levelized costs of combined cycle plants of 64-72 EUR per MWh in Europe.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HaasRubio, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Haas, J{\"o}rg and Rubio, Eulalia}, title = {Research for AGRI Committee - Possible impact of Brexit on the EU budget and, in particular, CAP funding, European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies, Brussels}, doi = {10.2861/323141}, pages = {38}, abstract = {This note assesses possible consequences of Brexit for the EU budget and the Common Agricultural Policy. It discusses the importance of the 'Brexitbill' and the loss of the British net contribution. Furthermore, it describes how the EU budget and spending on the Common Agricultural Policy can be adjusted to the new situation and estimates how the different options would affect EU Member States and their net balances.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Haas, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Haas, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Staatsschulden: Brauchen wir eine EU-L{\"o}sung? Europa Briefing}, pages = {5}, abstract = {Hohe Staatsschulden haben sich in der Eurozone zu einem veritablen Problem entwickelt. Dies betrifft nicht nur einzelne Staaten: Die europ{\"a}ische Schuldenkrise hat gezeigt, dass die Schwierigkeiten eines Eurolandes auf die gesamte W{\"a}hrungsunion {\"u}bergreifen k{\"o}nnen. Welche Strategien zum Abbau von Staatsschulden werden diskutiert? Hilft eine st{\"a}rkere Rolle der EU dabei, Schulden langfristig abzubauen oder sollte dies allein den Nationalstaaten {\"u}berlassen werden?}, language = {en} } @techreport{EnderleinHaas, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Enderlein, Henrik and Haas, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Structural Policies for Growth and Jobs: Best Practices, Benchmarking and the Role of the Eurogroup}, doi = {10.2861/96059}, pages = {31}, abstract = {This briefing paper analyses the role of the Eurogroup in European economic governance. It assesses the effectiveness of thematic discussions, proposes improvements to the process, and suggests how the legitimacy of Eurogroup actions and decisions could be strengthened.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{Samper, author = {Samper, Cristina}, title = {The interplay between the early work and family trajectories of young adult women born in West Germany: Differences by parental origins}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40074}, pages = {53}, abstract = {Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper employs sequence analysis to identify "typical" early (observation window limited to ages 15 to 30) employment and family formation trajectories among female second-generation migrants in Germany. For the employment domain of the life course, four types of employment trajectories were identified according to their modal states: "long education," "full-time employment," "part-time employment," and "non-employment." For the family domain of the life course, three types of family trajectories were identified: "postponement of family formation," "early family formation," and "early single motherhood." For the analysis on cluster affiliation, a multinomial logistic regression was used to investigate how parental origin relates to jointly determined employment and family trajectories. As expected, the descriptive results showed that trajectories of low labor market participation are highly related to trajectories of early family formation. The categorization by parental origins shows that there were few differences in the trajectories of most native and G2 women groups. One pattern that stood out was that compared to other origin groups, G2 women of Turkish parental origin were more likely to be on an early family formation path, and they were more likely to be on a path with multiple non-employment spells. In the modeling strategy, the remaining differences in the women's patterns were partially explained by the differences in their socioeconomic backgrounds (compulsory school track and the father's professional degree) and their maternal employment role models (the mother's employment when the woman was age 15).}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{MartinezBarrancoKukutschka, author = {Mart{\´i}nez Barranco Kukutschka, Roberto}, title = {Clearing the anti-corruption roadblocks: Better methods for better policies}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4078}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40789}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {119}, abstract = {This dissertation is an attempt to align the research and policy agendas in the field of anti-corruption. It explores the issue of measurement and looks at the relationship between the widely used "subjective indicators of corruption" (e.g., expert perception-based indicators and popular opinion surveys) and the more recently developed methods of quantifying corruption either through indirect measurements or administrative data. After the validation of the measurement instruments, it dives into some of the most widely cited "theories of change" in the literature to evaluate the effectiveness of the legal and economic approaches to fight corruption, while incorporating more nuanced explanatory models that focus on the interactions between institutional and policy factors rather than assuming that different elements have isolated effects on the societal levels of corruption. The idea of interactions in then taken forward to explore the potential of information communication technologies (ICTs) in creating virtuous cycles to control corruption. The final section summarises the main findings and contributions to the existing anti-corruption literature and advocates in favour of using methods that recognise the complex relationships between the different causes of and constraints against corruption. It calls for more multi-disciplinary approaches to improve our understanding of corruption and support the design of policies to curb it.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Hartmann, author = {Hartmann, Till}, title = {Corruption as a Development Policy Issue: Tracing the Formulation and Implementation of Theories of Change}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4082}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40827}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {163}, abstract = {Against the backdrop of mounting public demand for action against corruption the world over, the central objective and motivation behind this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of strategies that can help societies improve their control of corruption. More specifically, it investigates the overarching, policy-relevant research question of how to render donor-supported anti-corruption efforts more effective. Rooted in a cumulative research design, this thesis consists of three papers that approach the research question from different angles. The first paper lays the theoretical groundwork by tracing the historic roots of the widespread view today that corruption is unacceptable and delimits the corruption phenomenon conceptually by comparing it to its opposites. In addition, it places corruption in the context of the grand theories of development and derives the main theories of change from the corruption literature. The second paper connects contemporary corruption research with anti-corruption practice and identifies paradigmatic shifts in donor-supported anti-corruption efforts. It discusses the most frequently adopted anti-corruption instruments and develops typologies of interventions to facilitate a systematic analysis of the fragmented landscape of donor-supported anti-corruption activities. The third paper applies the analytical framework introduced in the second paper to study the case of the World Bank. The paper presents and interprets the first comprehensive inventory of World Bank activities that addressed corruption explicitly between 1996 and 2016. Building on the inventory data and on expert interviews, the paper investigates the impact of factors internal and external to the World Bank on the institution's anti-corruption programming. Overall, the in-depth analysis of a major donor revealed that organizational-level factors such as those related to the underlying financial model, organizational culture, and policy mandate may constrain the anti-corruption policy formulation process and lead to inapt design and reduced effectiveness of anti-corruption reforms. From this finding follows the practical conclusion for donors that giving greater consideration to internal incentive structures and its impact on development policy design may contribute to improving the effectiveness of interventions.}, language = {en} } @incollection{DeoSontakke, author = {Deo, S. and Sontakke, N.}, title = {User-Centric Explainability in Fintech Applications}, series = {HCI International 2021 - Posters. HCII 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science}, volume = {1420}, booktitle = {HCI International 2021 - Posters. HCII 2021. Communications in Computer and Information Science}, editor = {Stephanidis, C. and Antona, M. and Ntoa, S.}, isbn = {978-3-030-78642-7}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-78642-7_64}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {481 -- 488}, abstract = {Fintech applications such as robo-financial advisors (RAs) are complex algorithmic decision making systems, which gained prominence with their claim to democratize finance. Lack of transparency and explanations for these automated decisions leads to a trust deficit for users, limiting the potential of these applications. Our research aims to analyse the effectiveness of user-centric explanations in conveying the decision-making logic of complex algorithmic systems. Our user study tests techniques from explainable AI, varying in complexity and transparency. The quantitative aspects of our study determine the efficacy and usability of explanations and the qualitative aspects measure the effect of explanations on users and system usability. Our study finds trust and confidence of users in the system is positively correlated with comprehension and transparency provided by the presence of an explanation. There is a notable reduction in comprehension and trust between transparent white and opaque black box explanations of algorithms. This study is designed to aid policymakers and regulators in order to understand user needs which are crucial to designing better policies around algorithmic explainability for RAs.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Bois, author = {Bois, Julien Raymond Florent}, title = {The Uncertain World of the Court of Justice of the European Union. A Multidisciplinary Approach of the Legitimacy of the EU Judiciary in the 21st century}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4084}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40844}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {283}, abstract = {The Court of Justice of the European Union is one of the most contested European Union institutions. It is a non-majoritarian body that wields power beyond the state and imposes its rule to citizens and directly legitimate national governments. Despite numerous bold rulings that went beyond the expectations of member states, added to the alleged global legitimacy crisis suffered by the EU, the CJEU was the most likely candidate to face total disempowerment. Yet the Court's mandate has been extended as a result of the economic and financial crisis, and its involvement in the control of the new economic recovery fund in the context of the COVID 19 crisis led 2 member states to lift their veto to the most important recovery plan of the century. How is the Court seemingly not suffering a legitimacy crisis in the 21st century? Answers to this paradox require a comprehensive exercise of theory building of the Court's legitimacy. The latter is a concept traditionally employed to assess the justified right to rule of powerholders within nation-states and was used to describe the whole polity rather than some of its parts. Existing legitimacy concepts must be refined in order to characterize the transnational non-majoritarian body. The thesis thus provides the first comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of the legitimacy of the CJEU, drawing insights from law, political science and sociology. It recalibrates the use of concepts such as the "input-throughput-output" trichotomy to the specificities of the judiciary and combines theories of judicial review developed in legal scholarship with actor-based accounts found in empirical social sciences. The thesis rejects the division between normative and sociological legitimacy and advocates for a recoupling of both sides in order to have a complete picture of the CJEU's right to rule. The question of the Court's audience is crucial. Standards of judicial legitimacy are forged according to the social characteristics of the Court's attentive public. Since the CJEU is a non-majoritarian institution evolving on the transnational scene and exercises an expert activity discriminating legal specialists from other citizens, the Court's attentive public is (as determined by the analysis of judicial external visits and the properties of the Court's followers on Twitter) composed by the EU legal profession. Normative standards of judicial legitimacy in the EU must be forged according to the expectations of the Court's attentive public while respecting broader social dynamics found in all member states. In terms of the Court's sources of legitimacy, the Court must respect its ii mandate enshrined in the treaties and judges must be outstanding legal professionals and reflect the population of the member states. It must respect due process and associate its attentive public to the interpretation and enforcement of EU law as much as possible. It must also deliver sound results that correspond to its status as the supreme court of the Union. The thesis concludes by claiming that the CJEU is not suffering a legitimacy crisis in the 21st century. The legitimacy deficits that characterize its activities are progressively or remain minor, and do not outweigh the support that judges built with the legal profession over decades. The thesis nonetheless identified several institutional and behavioral shortcomings and includes a series of recommendations to address the mere legitimacy problems faced the Court today.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Loschert, author = {Loschert, Franziska Eva}, title = {Business as usual in times of Politicisation? Preferences of member states regarding EU labour migration policies}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4013}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40137}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {297}, abstract = {What drives the positions taken by EU member states in the Council? Liberal Intergovernmentalism most prominently argues that governments enjoy the leeway of a 'permissive consensus' to represent the interests of strong domestic producer groups in the Council. Yet, in a Postfunctionalist Union, where citizens are no longer 'rationally ignorant' about their governments' decisions in Brussels, identity politics are expected to override issue-specific business interests. The key mechanism that brings us from Moravcsik's insulated 'client politics' to Postfunctionalist 'mass politics' is the phenomenon of politicisation. EU labour migration policies targeting third country nationals is a policy field where both clientelist business interests and politicised mass public interests are likely to surface, clash, and influence policymakers. While business demands liberalised and harmonised labour migration policies, governments under public scrutiny and pressure from right-wing populist parties are concerned that meeting the employers' demands when legislating in Brussels will be costly in upcoming elections. This dissertation poses the question whether and to what extend politicisation of the EU and of immigration moderates the responsiveness of government to issues-specific interests of employers or mass public interests when negotiating EU labour migration policies. Drawing on a time-consistent quantitative measurement of politicisation of the EU and immigration in four member states, I study the impact of politicisation on the state preferences regarding five draft directives on EU labour migration policies. My research finds that the evidence for a moderating effect of politicisation on the responsiveness of governments is weak. Instead, whether governments respond to business or mass public interests is largely determined by the issue-specific dependence of employers on a common EU policy to attract labour migrants. If dependence is considered high, governments tend to represent employers' interests and harmonise labour migration policies. Yet, this dissertation shows that identity and sovereignty related concerns matter as well but manifest more strongly in governments' preferences when issue-specific dependence is low, because unilateral policies are considered more effective. Only against this background of an 'ignorant or sceptical business' does politicisation have at times a reinforcing effect upon the responsiveness of governments to the communitarian parts of their electorate.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Traut, author = {Traut, Frederik}, title = {Regulatory Corridors. The Reasons Behind Complexity in International and European Banking Regulation Accords}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4074}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40743}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {309}, abstract = {The international banking regulation regime is complex. This complexity leaves room for regulatory arbitrage and boosts administrative burdens, which reduces its mitigating effect on financial instability. This book addresses the question on why states agree on such a potentially inefficient regime. First, it evaluates research on international banking regulation negotiations, which either neglect complexity or offer insufficient functionalist regulatory capture arguments for its emergence. Second, it proposes an economic cost-benefit model that explains complexity in international banking regulation as a function of diverging preferences in multipolar negotiations. This is based on an outcome-based definition of complexity: regimes that yield a set of different potential outcomes for the same banks are complex. The degree of complexity is described by a regulatory corridor whose walls are the boundaries of this set. The larger such a corridor, the more costly are its implications in terms of stability but its boundaries come closer to the preferences of signatories. Based on this assumed trade-off, three main claims are derived: (i) states with diverging preferences will introduce at least some complexity in their multinational regulatory regime, as a regulatory corridors-solution allows at least one of them to come closer to their initial preferences, which is individually welfare-enhancing; (ii) this is not only a collective action problem, as a central planner would also introduce complexity (potentially to a different extent); and (iii) this holds in an intertemporal case with an infinite time-horizon; changing expectations might widen the optimal regulatory corridor. Third, these claims are evaluated in three qualitative case studies on the treatment of operational risk in Basel II, the implementation of Basel III capital requirements in the European Union, and the European bank resolution regime. They find support for propositions (i) and (ii). Other methods might be needed to evaluate (iii). A policy-relevant result of this research is that some degree of complexity can contribute to welfare-enhancement. Complexity that is the result of unmanaged collective action by states could reduce collective welfare while still being individually rational. Regulators should treat complexity as a variable in negotiations to achieve the former and avoid the latter.}, language = {en} } @article{Ischinger, author = {Ischinger, Wolfgang}, title = {La Covid-19, une mise {\`a} l'{\´e}preuve pour le projet europ{\´e}en ?}, series = {Revue D{\´e}fense Nationale}, volume = {2021/3}, journal = {Revue D{\´e}fense Nationale}, number = {838}, doi = {10.3917/rdna.838.0036}, pages = {36 -- 39}, abstract = {La Covid-19 a {\´e}branl{\´e} le monde en aggravant ses incertitudes g{\´e}opolitiques. L'Europe et ses institutions ont {\´e}t{\´e} fragilis{\´e}es, or plus que jamais, celle-ci doit reprendre l'initiative pour surmonter collectivement la crise et affirmer une nouvelle ambition pour que le « vieux continent » en ressorte plus fort.}, language = {fr} } @phdthesis{Raiser, author = {Raiser, Kilian}, title = {Post-Paris: Understanding Pledge and Review and its Implications for International Cooperation on Climate Change}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4407}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-44070}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {224}, abstract = {This dissertation studies the mechanisms through which the Paris Agreement proposes to limit global greenhouse gas emissions, and the prospects for these mechanisms to succeed in doing so. In particular it focuses on the Paris Agreement's pledge and review structure, taking a cumulative approach comprising three distinct research papers studying the Agreement from different perspectives. In the first paper I systematically map the literature studying the Agreement and synthesize existing insights on whether or not it will be effective. I find mixed evidence. Potential drivers of effectiveness, such as the Agreement's transparency provisions, are often qualified by concrete barriers, with the information submitted thus far lacking in quality and comparability. Although the literature provides ample recommendations for overcoming such barriers, the success of the Agreement is found to ultimately depend on national ambition. As such, the Paris Agreement's most promising features are found to lie in its facilitation of norm-diffusion and learning. In the second paper I use systematic evidence synthesis methods to review existing literature studying five comparable review mechanisms in the human rights, trade, finance and labour regimes. I identify six common factors that influence the performance of these review mechanisms. Using these as benchmarks to assess the Paris Agreement's review mechanisms I find that the Agreement incorporates many of these features. However, two major shortcomings remain, namely the lack of an assessment of the adequacy of national climate policies, and a lack of capacities to effectively carry out the review process. Combined with existing political constraints, these shortcomings suggest that that the Paris Agreement alone is unlikely to be effective. In the third paper I develop a novel framework for assessing states' nationally determined contribution formulation process based on the state capacities and policy design literatures. I apply the framework to the cases of Brazil, South Africa, India and China. I find that these countries engage imperfectly with the pledge and review structure of the Paris Agreement. They lack systematic processes for formulating their nationally determined contributions, and their international pledges remain detached from domestic climate policy considerations.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Pavlova, author = {Pavlova, Marina}, title = {Authoritarian Regimes and Financial Crises: Explaining Autocratic Regime Survival and Collapse}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4392}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-43929}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {229}, abstract = {The common notion that financial crises pose serious threats to autocratic regime stability has been challenged over the last decades both on theoretical and empirical grounds by the extensive number of authoritarian regimes that seem to be absolutely impervious to financial and economic shocks. So, why do financial crises only sometimes lead to autocratic regime collapse? What mechanisms do (de)stabilize authoritarian regimes during financial crises? And under what conditions is autocratic regime breakdown likely to happen? This dissertation addresses these questions by bringing together insights from the democratization, comparative autocracy, and political economy strands of research. It argues that the relationship between financial crises and autocratic regime breakdown is highly conditional, and depends on a complex interplay of economic and political factors. In three standalone papers, this dissertation scrutinizes the entire process of crises induced autocratic regime instability and regime collapse, and examines the effects of different economic and political factors on the probability of autocratic regime survival and collapse during specific types of financial crises. The key findings of this dissertation demonstrate that the destabilizing effects of financial crises may vary by crisis type, that in response to financial crises, policymakers in autocracies can implement crisis policies that prolong authoritarian rule, and that institutions by which autocracies govern may immunize them from political risks during financial crises, or, by contrast, may precipitate elite defection and regime collapse. Overall, this dissertation provides many new theoretical and empirical insights into the sources of autocratic regime survival and breakdown during financial crises. It also provides one more evidence that economic and political problems do not exist in isolation from one another, rather they are linked together in complex networks of weirdly tangled cause-effects relationships, which we do not yet fully understand.}, language = {en} } @article{MaherRiordanŠubic, author = {Maher, Imelda and Riordan, R{\´o}n{\´a}n and Šubic, Neza}, title = {The European Arrest Warrant Before the Irish Courts: Judicial Dialogue, Mutual Trust, and the Limits of Interpretation}, series = {The Irish Jurist}, volume = {67}, journal = {The Irish Jurist}, pages = {14 -- 54}, language = {en} } @article{LandwehrLeininger, author = {Landwehr, Claudia and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Instrumental or procedural democrats? The evolution of procedural preferences after democratization}, series = {Political Research Exchange}, journal = {Political Research Exchange}, number = {1(1)}, issn = {2474-736X}, doi = {10.1080/2474736X.2019.1654838}, pages = {1 -- 19}, abstract = {This paper addresses instrumentalist attitudes to democracy - attitudes according to which democracy is not valued for itself, but accepted only as a means to specific policy goals. Pippa Norris has argued that in the process of democratic consolidation, such instrumentalist conceptions of democracy are replaced with proceduralist ones, leading to an enlightened understanding of democracy. We use the unique case of German reunification to show that this process takes at least a generation to complete. Based on data from a novel battery of items fielded via the German GESIS panel, we show an East-West divide in democratic instrumentalism, which, however, is smaller among younger generations. While our findings do confirm Norris' thesis that growing democratic experience leads to a shift from instrumental to procedural understandings of democracy, we also show that instrumental democrats still make up a sizeable portion of the citizenry that might withdraw support if dissatisfied.}, language = {en} } @article{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum}, series = {Politics and Governance}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, number = {7(2)}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17169/refubium-2821}, pages = {306 -- 333}, abstract = {Referendums provide citizens with more control over policy. At the same time, they often entail choices over highly complex policies and are politicised along partisan lines, suggesting that partisan rather than policy considerations will guide voters' choices. I look to the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum, which was particularly complex and polarised, as an opportunity to test for mechanisms of government accountability in a referendum. Using a national survey of voters, I show that the more negative a respondent's evaluation of the state of the economy, the lower their likelihood to vote 'yes' on the government's reform proposal. This relationship is remarkably strong: an average respondent with a very positive evaluation of the state of the economy has an 88\% probability of supporting the government's reform proposal compared to only 12\% for a respondent with a very negative evaluation. The fact that economic evaluations are a strong determinant of vote choice provides evidence for the existence of an economic vote in a referendum. This further suggests that voters may treat referendums as a sort of second-order election.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Claassen, author = {Claassen, Casper Hendrik}, title = {Confronting Vulnerability - State-Induced Social Innovation and the Making of South Korea's Social Enterprises}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-3568}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-35687}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {313}, abstract = {This dissertation delineates the state-induced emergence and mainstreaming of South Korea's (hereinafter, 'Korea') social enterprise sector following the enactment of a social enterprise promotion act in 2007. In particular, this dissertation contextualizes the public sector-led popularization and mobilization of social enterprises and studies the outcomes of this intervention. This dissertation includes analyses of networks, discourse, and geographic agglomerations, and it highlights the pressures, mechanisms, institutions, and organizations that have been integral to this process of state-induced innovation. It contributes to the literature on interactions between the state and social economy organizations, such as social enterprises. The relationship between the state and social economy organizations has been subject to much academic scrutiny, and the Korean case contributes to this literature by illustrating how the state has induced the emergence and scaling of social enterprises as a private organizational form and also by showing where social enterprises have flourished. The Korean case contrasts with the North American and European cases in that in Korea the state purposively popularized social enterprise, as opposed to the North American and European traditions where the origins of social enterprise are more closely linked to civil society. This has implications for how states can induce the founding of private organizational forms that serve their interests. Korea is an especially intriguing case study given that 'social enterprise' as an organizational form was almost entirely absent from Korean society prior to 2007, yet has now become embedded into society in the sense that social enterprises are found in nearly every industry and municipal district. There are now thousands of social enterprises in Korea a little more than a decade after the enactment of social enterprise promotion legislation. Civil society has, evidently, accepted social enterprises as a valid organizational form. This dissertation seeks to establish an empirical platform and a theoretical framework which can be utilized for a more theoretical analysis of social enterprise and other social economy organizations in Korea in future studies. Nevertheless, this dissertation does reveal how actors can manipulate the path dependencies imposed by history, and the capabilities bequeathed by it, to forge new possibilities in novel and strategic ways. The Korean state's ability to induce social innovation is a tangible illustration of such.}, language = {en} } @article{Brueggmann, author = {Br{\"u}ggmann, Daniel}, title = {Women's employment, income and divorce in West Germany: a causal approach}, series = {Journal for Labour Market Research}, volume = {54}, journal = {Journal for Labour Market Research}, number = {5}, issn = {2510-5027}, doi = {10.1186/s12651-020-00270-0}, abstract = {In this paper, I assess the employment and income effect of divorce for women in West Germany between 2000 and 2005. With newly available administrative data that allows me to adopt a causal approach, I find strong negative employment effects with respect to marginal employment and strong positive effects with respect to regular employment. However, in sum, the overall employment rate (marginal and regular employment combined) is not affected. Furthermore, the lower the labor market attachment before separation is, the more pronounced employment effects are. In addition, I also estimate the impact of divorce on daily gross incomes. I find no convincing evidence for an income effect. I conclude that a divorce might have a pure labor supply effect only.}, language = {en} } @techreport{DeoVerulkarKrishnan, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Deo, Sahil and Verulkar, Pooja and Krishnan, Sanjana}, title = {Fast Data for Faster Decision-making: The Utility of High-frequency Economic Indicators}, series = {ORF Issue Brief}, volume = {372}, journal = {ORF Issue Brief}, isbn = {9789390159369}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic is posing unique challenges to policymakers across the globe, necessitating efficient action in short timeframes. During such crises, having the right data at the right time is crucial to making informed policy decisions. Traditional economic indicators can be inadequate owing to issues of timeliness, granularity, and difficulty in collection. There is a need therefore for higher-frequency and more granular data to track economic activities. These "alternative" or "proxy" high-frequency indicators could help assess the economic impact triggered by COVID-19, shape new economic policies, and understand the road to recovery. This brief argues for the creation of a publicly accessible, multi-sectoral dashboard based on sectoral, high-frequency indicators.}, language = {en} } @techreport{DeoFranz, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Deo, Sahil and Franz, Christian}, title = {Building India's Global Health Strategy: Beyond the Role of 'Pharmacist of the World'}, series = {ORF Special Report}, journal = {ORF Special Report}, number = {106}, isbn = {9789390159017}, abstract = {As the Covid-19 pandemic began to unfold in February, India's dependence on Chinese inputs for the production of pharmaceutical products was debated intensely. This special report argues that the narrow discussion has fallen short in capturing India's crucial role in global health as a provider of health-related goods to many developing countries. The report analyses trade data on over 200 categories of health-related goods, and provides quantitative evidence for the extent of many countries' health-related import dependence on India. Given this de facto position of India, this report concludes that the current health crisis calls for a comprehensive Indian global health strategy that will allow the country to expand on the existing multilateral system.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KrishnanDeoManurkan, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Krishnan, Sanjana and Deo, Sahil and Manurkan, Shardul}, title = {50 Days of Lockdown: Measuring India's Success in Arresting COVID-19}, series = {ORF Special Report}, journal = {ORF Special Report}, number = {107}, isbn = {9789390159161}, abstract = {As India completes 50 days of lockdown, this report presents the findings of a data-driven enquiry into the extent to which the lockdown has achieved its health objectives and arrested the spread of COVID-19. The success is measured on four parameters: flattening the curve, reducing the growth rate of new cases, containing the spread, and improving healthcare capacity. The findings show that while the lockdown has flattened the curve to an extent, it has failed to reverse the trend or contain the disease. Significant changes in strategy would have to be adopted to arrest the spread of COVID-19.}, language = {en} } @article{OswaldErnst, author = {Oswald, Lisa and Ernst, Andreas}, title = {Flying in the Face of Climate Change: Quantitative psychological approach examining the social drivers of individual air travel}, series = {Journal of Sustainable Tourism}, volume = {29}, journal = {Journal of Sustainable Tourism}, number = {1}, issn = {0966-9582}, doi = {10.1080/09669582.2020.1812616}, pages = {68 -- 86}, abstract = {Aviation contributes substantially to anthropogenic climate change. This paper situates individual behaviour changes alongside technological efficiency gains and policy processes in the search for significant emission reduction in the aviation sector. Using online survey methodology (N = 393) and expanding upon existing psychological perspectives on individual attitudes and behaviours, this study focuses on the social influence on air travel. Considering social identity and global social networks, two new instruments, the Cosmopolitan Identity Scale (CIS) and the Global Social Interconnectedness Score (GSIS), were introduced to capture the social drivers of air travel within standardized questionnaires. Different subgroups of travellers were clustered and compared along external and psychological variables, to allow the construction of more effective policies in the aviation sector. Overall, the awareness of environmental problems caused by flying led to a perceived dilemma between environmental attitudes and travel, which resulted in the engagement with carbon offsets. The global social interconnectedness, built through international experience, led to increased travel to visit friends and family, and an overall increase in flight kilometres. The social identification as a cosmopolitan was related to social media use and predicted flight kilometres directly, implying a particular sensitivity to social norm messages in online campaigns.}, language = {en} } @article{KlausErnstOswald, author = {Klaus, Geraldine and Ernst, Andreas and Oswald, Lisa}, title = {Psychological factors influencing laypersons' acceptance of climate engineering, climate change mitigation and business as usual scenarios}, series = {Technology in Society}, volume = {60}, journal = {Technology in Society}, issn = {0160-791X}, doi = {10.1016/j.techsoc.2019.101222}, abstract = {In the past two decades, research on so-called climate engineering approaches has increased. These technologies are considered to be potential substitutes for mitigation strategies in combating climate change. The ongoing process of layperson acceptance and resultant opinion formation can be expected to play a crucial role in future public debate about field experiments or the actual deployment of climate engineering. In July 2017, we assessed public reactions from the German population in a representative online survey. Participants were given a brief text informing them about climate change and one of four different scenarios in a between-subject design (N = 678). Two of the scenarios described the use of climate engineering technologies - stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) and bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) - one of them covered conventional mitigation strategies and the fourth group was given an outline of the business-as-usual (BAU) approach. The mitigation scenario (willingness for individual behaviour changes) showed the highest acceptance rate (M = 74.23), which was significantly higher than acceptance of the other scenarios (p < .001). Acceptance of BECCS (M = 53.15) was higher than acceptance of SAI (M = 46.25, p = .043) and BAU (M = 42.94; p = .006). We undertook a relative-importance analysis to investigate the influence of multiple predictor variables on acceptance formation for each scenario; the variance thus explained ranged from 80.3\% to 86.8\%. The results point up the influence of perceived risks, subjective norms and affective responses on the acceptance of climate engineering technologies. By contrast, person-specific and relatively stable variables, such as environmental attitudes and wishful thinking, are particularly relevant in the evaluation of the mitigation scenario.}, language = {en} } @article{RuhnauHennigMadlener, author = {Ruhnau, Oliver and Hennig, Patrick and Madlener, Reinhard}, title = {Economic implications of forecasting electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources}, series = {Renewable Energy}, journal = {Renewable Energy}, number = {161}, issn = {0960-1481}, doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2020.06.110}, pages = {1318 -- 1327}, abstract = {Short-term forecasting of electricity generation from variable renewable energy sources is not an end in itself but should provide some net benefit to its user. In the case of electricity trading, which is in the focus of this paper, the benefit can be quantified in terms of an improved economic outcome. Although some effort has been made to evaluate and to improve the profitability of electricity forecasts, the understanding of the underlying effects has remained incomplete so far. In this paper, we develop a more comprehensive theoretical framework of the connection between the statistical and the economic properties of day-ahead electricity forecasts. We find that, apart from the accuracy and the bias, which have already been extensively researched, the correlation between the forecast errors and the market price spread determines the economic implications - a phenomenon which we refer to as 'correlation effect'. Our analysis is completed by a case study on solar electricity forecasting in Germany which illustrates the relevance and the limits of both our theoretical framework and the correlation effect.}, language = {en} }