@techreport{JansenJaegerRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Jansen, Jannik and J{\"a}ger, Philipp and Redeker, Nils}, title = {For climate, profits, or resilience? Why, where and how the EU should respond to the Inflation Reduction Act}, pages = {27}, abstract = {The US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has rekindled European fears of missing out in the global green technology race. However, EU member states still disagree on whether the greater risk lies in doing too much or too little. At heart, there remains significant confusion on which European sectors stand to lose competitiveness; how much the EU should fret about these losses; and whether there is a need for joint support from the EU level to avoid economic divergence. We take a first stab at the existing sectoral evidence. Our results suggest that the IRA will undercut European production costs in several sectors. This does not mean the EU must mimic the US program. However, it does mean that the EU needs to turn its piecemeal Green Deal Industrial Plan into a coherent strategy. This requires a greater focus on green industries in which Europe can develop a competitive edge and more joint financing at the EU level.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Rasche, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Rasche, Lucas}, title = {The EU's race for talent: Common challenge, no shared response}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Labour shortages are a common challenge for EU member states. Shortages in sectors vital to the green and digital transition risk attaining common objectives of the EU's industrial strategy. But as much as the need to attract skilled workers is a shared concern, the EU lacks a common labour migration policy that lives up to the challenge. In this Policy Brief, Lucas Rasche argues that the EU's current labour migration acquis is highly fragmented, underused, and largely detached from other policy areas. Hence the EU needs to structurally re-think its approach to labour migration for it to truly compete in the global race for talent.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BellatoCoragliaGuerraetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Bellato, Federica and Coraglia, Benedetta and Guerra, Carolina and Semenzato, Allegra}, title = {"This time I've voted", but am I represented? Addressing the underrepresentation of young Europeans through the adoption of youth quotas}, abstract = {"Young people are at the heart of our policymaking and political priorities. We vow to listen to them, and we want to work together to shape the future of the European Union", stated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the celebrations of the 2022 European Year of Youth. Nevertheless, young generations today are underrepresented in European institutions and their interests risk being sidelined. For this reason, we advocate the introduction of youth quotas in the European Parliament. These should take the form of legislated candidate quotas. Our aim is to increase the number of young adults elected to match more closely the share of under-35 in Europe. Only in this way can we ensure that the distinct concerns of younger generations are being adequately heard and discussed in the decision-making arena.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Ditching losers: Why the EU should end support for unviable hydrogen applications}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Green hydrogen has become a cornerstone of the EU's industrial policy and decarbonisation plans. The EU plans to spend billions in hydrogen subsidies and provide extensive legislative support. However, its current approach risks throwing good money after bad. Producing renewable hydrogen requires a lot of energy, which means hydrogen will always remain comparatively scarce and expensive. Consequently, many hydrogen applications do not make sense at scale, neither economically nor for the climate. Yet, the EU supports all hydrogen applications without sufficiently factoring in their prospects. This policy brief argues that the EU needs to start ditching losers. Hydrogen applications that are unlikely to be viable should not get public money. To enable the EU to filter out losers, the Commission needs to take a stronger guiding role and bolster its administrative capacities.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Rasche, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Rasche, Lucas}, title = {The EU needs a new migration diplomacy}, pages = {7}, abstract = {The EU's cooperation with third countries on migration disproportionally prioritises deterrence and return at the expense of other foreign policy objectives. Two reasons illustrate why this particularly problematic now. First, the EU relies on third countries to support its effort of further isolating the Russian regime for its war of aggression against Ukraine. And second, labour shortages require the EU to conclude partnerships with third countries on labour migration. The EU must hence revise its migration diplomacy. This requires shifting from a predominantly domestic agenda and short-term objectives to considering migration part of the EU's wider geopolitical ambition and a better balance of priorities in cooperating with third countries.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LindnerRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Lindner, Johannes and Redeker, Nils}, title = {"It's the politics, stupid" - don't squander this golden opportunity for reforming the fiscal rules}, pages = {10}, abstract = {On the reform of fiscal rules, the EU risks letting a once-in-a-decade opportunity slip. The time window for a successful reform is tight. And the Commission's current proposal is economically sound but politically overconfident. This risks drawing the Commission into political fights it cannot win, and would repeat some of the mistakes of the last reform process. At the same, current rules remain impossible to apply. Those who romanticize the old framework therefore need to realize that a retreat to the old system is not an option. The EU thus needs a compromise and needs it fast. To get there in the little time left, we propose four improvements: first, the system needs some numerical benchmarks for debt reduction in the adjustment period; second, it should include a clear definition of the scope of possible deviations through growth-oriented reforms and investments; third it should come with explicit carve-outs for national expenditures linked to some EU programs; and fourth, it needs credible enforcement through better ownership not only at the national but also at the European level.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Get your priorities right - Europe must not underestimate the role of banks for the green transition}, pages = {13}, abstract = {EU policymakers and the financial sector have placed high hopes in forging a green capital markets union. However, the idea that capital markets could swiftly close the green investment gap ignores underlying financing structures. In Europe, the areas with the biggest funding needs rely on bank loans rather than financial markets and the recent banking turmoil is unlikely to change this. The reliance on banks will not abate any time soon as EU governments are dragging their heels on completing the capital markets union despite repeated promises. Since banks will largely finance the European green deal, the EU should step up its efforts to green the banking system and systematically make climate risks a core element of banking supervision, prudential regulation, and monetary policy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MackFindeisen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian and Findeisen, Francesco}, title = {Do more with more - How the EU can improve funding for the European Green Deal}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Funding remains the Achilles heel of the EU Green Deal. Europe needs to spend an additional €350 billion on climate action every year until the end of this decade. The bulk of sustainable investment is expected to come from the private sector and the InvestEU programme has been established to leverage private investment through the European Investment Bank (EIB) Group and other public financial institutions. However, overly ambitious target volumes backed by only limited public financial support, and the resultant high levels of leverage, prevent InvestEU from delivering its full potential for achieving the green transition. To plug the green investment gap, InvestEU needs to reduce its leverage, increase its transparency on intermediated operations and be complemented by fresh public spending at EU level to finance transformative investments that fall outside the scope of what public de-risking of private investments can achieve.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Ostanina, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ostanina, Sascha}, title = {Winning the Peace in Ukraine: Stimulating private investment for Ukraine's reconstruction}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Ukraine's post-war reconstruction represents a mammoth task. Its successful implementation will depend, inter alia, on Ukraine's ability to attract private sector support for its reconstruction projects. To enhance the country's investment attractiveness, the European Commission put forward a €50bn Ukraine Facility proposal for 2024-2027. Will this initiative suffice to uncover Ukraine's investment potential? In this policy brief, Sascha Ostanina maps proposed EU investment incentives for Ukraine and analyses shortcomings in the current approach. Fine-tuning its assistance mechanisms requires the EU to help Ukraine set-up insurance mechanisms, expand sector-specific SME financing mechanisms, and to prioritise Ukraine's access to the EU single market. Getting this right could not only mobilise private investment for Ukraine's reconstruction, but also streamline Ukraine's accession to the EU.}, language = {en} } @techreport{FindeisenWernert, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Findeisen, Francesco and Wernert, Yann}, title = {Meeting the costs of resilience: The EU's Critical Raw Materials Strategy must go the extra kilometer}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Europe's green transition is expected to generate a substantial increase in demand for critical raw materials (the same holds true for the digital transformation that lies outside this inquiry). European firms heavily rely on imports for these minerals, with a significant amount coming from China. This geospatial concentration of supply chains exposes Europe's climate and green industrial policies to significant geopolitical risks. This complex of issues prompted the European Commission to introduce the Critical Raw Material Act in March 2023. Albeit a valuable addition to Europe's strategic autonomy agenda, the Act does not rise to the scale of the challenge. Internally, it aims to develop a European value chain for critical raw materials by streamlining permitting processes without committing any new funds. Externally, it reframes existing trade instruments and partnership initiatives without providing a step-by-step schedule for tapping into new sources of supply. If the EU is intent on reducing its vulnerabilities it must recognize that resilience comes with a price tag. It needs to marshal meaningful European funding and administrative support provisions, set realistic diversification requirements for European companies via regulation, and back its external trade and partnership strategies with convincing resources.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Europe's engine or wrench in the works? French-German cooperation on EU energy policy}, pages = {13}, abstract = {The "Franco-German Engine" currently stutters more than in the past, especially on energy topics. At times, this obstructs urgently needed policy making at the EU level. This policy brief attempts to illuminate the differences and commonalities between Germany and France on EU energy policy. First, it provides an overview of the German and French energy landscapes and their future objectives. Second, it describes the German and French positions on four controversial energy policy areas: nuclear energy, grid expansion, electricity market reform and guaranteeing low prices for energy-intensive industry. For each area, it identifies the key Franco-German pain-points and opportunities for the way forward.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Show greenwashing the red card. How Europe can make sustainable finance work}, pages = {16}, abstract = {What Europe needs is not a regulatory pause, but better legislation. In record time, the EU has rolled out a comprehensive disclosure regime for sustainable finance. But the nascent regulatory framework is challenging to implement, remains vulnerable to abuse by those seeking to game the system and fails to provide meaningful guidance to investors. Despite detailed legislation, financial market participants differ significantly in their expectations of sustainable investment products and face the risk of greenwashing, where issuers - intentionally or unintentionally - make misleading sustainability claims. To enable private investment to finance Europe's transition to net zero, this policy brief proposes short-term measures to combat greenwashing plus reforms that should be adopted once the next European Commission has assumed office. For the EU to uphold its status as a global benchmark for sustainable finance, lawmakers and regulators must urgently improve the rules in place and ensure that they are applied consistently across member states.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Findeisen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Findeisen, Francesco}, title = {The Club Approach: Towards Successful EU Critical Raw Materials Diplomacy}, pages = {10}, abstract = {The EU's supply chains for critical raw materials are heavily concentrated in a handful of countries, notably China. This exposes the European Green Deal Agenda to the twists and turns of geopolitics and external shocks, while the net-zero transition will add to global resource requirements. To diversify the sources of its supplies, the EU intends establishing a Critical Raw Materials Club—a forum where resource-hungry and resource-rich countries collaborate in diversifying critical raw materials value chains. This policy brief outlines the challenges the EU faces in setting up such a Club and discusses options for designing an effective model. It concludes that a hybrid version, one that starts with voluntary commitments, minimal structure, and a limited number of members and becomes more ambitious over time, offers the most promising design solution. However, to succeed with this approach, the EU must make a credible upfront funding commitment at the launch of the Club and streamline its fragmented development finance model.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Ostanina, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ostanina, Sascha}, title = {The EU Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine - A peace actor who teaches to fight}, pages = {9}, abstract = {The EU Military Assistance Mission in Support of Ukraine (EUMAM UA) is designed to support Ukraine's army in its fight against Russia's invasion. A two-year mission envisions training 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers on Western weapons systems and aims to maximise the utility of military assistance provided to Ukraine by its international partners. Can EUMAM UA provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage that wins the war? In this policy brief, Sascha Ostanina argues that EUMAM UA requires a longer mandate for Ukrainian troops to overcome real-life constraints. Consequently, the training mission's cumulative impact can turn EUMAM UA into one of the key components of Ukraine's battlefield successes. To increase its cumulative impact, the EU should also standardise the content of EUMAM UA courses and merge EUMAM UA with other EU military aid measures set up for Ukraine.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Kohlenberger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kohlenberger, Judith}, title = {Opening up "Fortress Europe" to Global Talents: EU Labour Migration Options}, pages = {8}, abstract = {This policy brief delves into the potential of regular migration across diverse skill levels to alleviate labour shortages in the EU. It contends that the EU faces a policy dilemma by attempting to curtail certain migration forms, as seen in the recent Common European Asylum System (CEAS) reform, while concurrently encouraging others through initiatives like the EU Talent Pool. The inconsistent approach to third-country migration poses significant trade-offs, necessitating a comprehensive resolution. The brief advocates for a multi-faceted strategy encompassing (a) diversification, (b) integration, and (c) de-bureaucratization at both EU and member state levels. Addressing potential pitfalls such as brain drains and heightened competition among member states, the brief concludes by highlighting three essential criteria for enhancing talent attraction and mitigating EU labour shortages through both high- and low-skilled migration.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jansen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Jansen, Jannik}, title = {When Europe talks climate, it needs to think jobs}, pages = {16}, abstract = {Europe's climate and green industrial policies have faced criticism over lack of funding and coordination, but a shortage of skilled workers could be the key stumbling block for meeting the EU's green ambitions. This policy brief shines a light on the challenges posed by this shortage. First, it provides an overview of the EU's aspirational clean tech objectives. Second, it seeks to present a more nuanced perspective on the specific skill and labor requirements for producing and deploying key clean technologies, by providing an initial estimate for the workforce needed to meet the Union's climate and industrial targets by 2030. Finally, it delves into the factors contributing to potential labor market bottlenecks and underscores the urgent need for targeted and coordinated policy actions.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Lost in Implementation? The Clean Industrial Deal demands urgent and bold delivery}, pages = {12}, abstract = {The EU's Clean Industrial Deal (CID) finally offers a coherent strategy to make clean-tech manufacturing and energy-intensive industries competitive while cutting emissions. But being a high-level document, the CID's success hinges on the still-missing implementation details. The first action plans, for cars and metals, are not encouraging indicators, revealing that measures run the risk of having limited heft, speed and scope. To avoid the CID becoming an empty promise, Brussels must wield its policy tools more forcefully, accelerate key legislation, broaden support to other priority sectors, and provide more clarity on the limits of EU-level policies.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Better green than sorry - Why the prudential framework for insurers should integrate systemic climate risks}, pages = {8}, abstract = {Climate change poses systemic risks to insurers and the broader financial system, yet the EU's prudential framework for insurers remains ill-equipped to deal with these. While recent regulatory revisions have introduced some climate-related requirements, these fall short of a systemic approach. This policy brief calls for integrating systemic climate risks across the full range of insurers' underwriting and investment activities and puts forward concrete actions to that end. The upcoming review of the EU's macro-prudential framework for non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) opens an unmissable window of opportunity to align insurers' prudential policy with climate objectives and safeguard financial stability in an era of escalating climate risk.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KohlenbergerHoffmeyerZlotnikLaubeetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kohlenberger, Judith and Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik, Paula and Laube, Lena and Parusel, Bernd and Saracino, Daniele}, title = {Instrumentalisation of migration: Europe needs a strong and lawful response}, pages = {10}, abstract = {In view of a relatively low number of asylum seekers at the EU's eastern external borders, several EU member states are undermining refugee protection in Europe, citing attempts by Russia and Belarus to "instrumentalise" migration. This policy brief examines the narrative of the "instrumentalisation" of migration and its implications for asylum policy in the EU. In addition to national efforts , stricter measures and exemptions (or derogations) have also been incorporated into the 2024 reform of the Common European Asylum System (CEAS). This rhetorically and politically questionable escalation of the instrumentalisation narrative, which is increasingly reflected in law, erodes European norms and values internally. Externally, it signals success for those who engage in instrumentalisation. Through panic-driven reactions, the EU demonstrates that irregular migration is its weak point - one that can be exploited by third countries. A more fruitful response would be to draw on the strengths of the common European project: a human rights-based approach that relies on the rule of law and seeks to build capacities for intra-European responsibility-sharing. Such a counter-narrative, which absorbs the logic of instrumentalisation and creates desirable effects such as the stabilisation of norms, values and European labour markets, could achieve more positive foreign and security policy outcomes and serve as an impetus for a more evidence-based European asylum and refugee policy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KohlenbergerHoffmeyerZlotnikLaubeetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kohlenberger, Judith and Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik, Paula and Laube, Lena and Parusel, Bernd and Saracino, Daniele}, title = {Instrumentalisierung von Migration: Europa braucht eine starke und rechtskonforme Antwort}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Mehrere EU-Mitgliedstaaten berufen sich auf mutmaßliche Instrumentalisierungsversuche durch Russland und Belarus, um den Fl{\"u}chtlingsschutz an den {\"o}stlichen Außengrenzen auszuh{\"o}hlen - obwohl die Zahl der Asylsuchenden dort relativ gering ist. Dieser Policy Brief analysiert das Narrativ der „Instrumentalisierung" und seine wachsende Verankerung in Politik und Recht, unter anderem im Rahmen der 2024 beschlossenen Reform des Gemeinsamen Europ{\"a}ischen Asylsystems (GEAS). Die Rhetorik der Bedrohung erodiert nach innen europ{\"a}ische Werte und signalisiert nach außen Verwundbarkeit. Panikartige Reaktionen der EU machen deutlich, wie angreifbar und uneinheitlich ihr Umgang mit irregul{\"a}rer Migration ist. Stattdessen w{\"a}re ein menschenrechtlich geleiteter, rechtsstaatlicher Ansatz n{\"o}tig, der die innereurop{\"a}ische Verantwortungsteilung st{\"a}rkt. Ein solches Gegennarrativ k{\"o}nnte nicht nur Stabilit{\"a}t nach innen schaffen, sondern auch positive Impulse f{\"u}r eine realit{\"a}tsnahe und krisenresiliente europ{\"a}ische Asylpolitik sowie außen- und sicherheitspolitische Effekte entfalten.}, language = {de} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {The EU's Defence of Democracy Dilemma: The example of third country lobbying}, pages = {8}, abstract = {The European Commission has made defending EU democracies from foreign interference a priority. A key legislative element in its democracy agenda is the 'Directive on Transparency of Interest Representation on behalf of Third Countries'. The proposed directive would establish transparency registers in each member states for entities lobbying on behalf of third country governments. The initiative, however, is unlikely to substantially address the issue of foreign meddling. This brief argues that the directive as its stands is emblematic of the Commission's structural limitations when it comes to an effective defence of European democracy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Shahini, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Shahini, Besa}, title = {Towards Enlargement - How to Rebuild Trust in the EU Accession Process}, pages = {8}, abstract = {EU enlargement has historically fostered economic growth and political stability. In the Western Balkans, however, the process has stalled for many years due to the myriad crises afflicting the EU and failure to deliver reforms in the Western Balkans. This policy brief examines the evolution of the EU accession process, the challenges faced by candidate countries, and the need for a revitalized approach that builds reforms into the accession process rather than keep them a precondition for kickstarting it. It calls for the EU to remove bilateral disputes from the process and open accession talks with all candidate countries in all areas covered by the acquis, ensuring that all candidate countries have a fair chance based on their merits.}, language = {en} } @techreport{JansenNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Jansen, Jannik and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Between Continuity and a Perforated 'Cordon Sanitaire' - On the 2024 European Elections}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Between 6-9 July 2024, the 720 members of the European Parliament were elected across 27 Member States. While the elections have not led to a landslide shift to the right, there is a notable consolidation of far-right parties at the European level. Still, the pro-European centre is holding firm and maintains a majority. In this Policy Brief, Jannik Jansen and Thu Nguyen argue that the results likely indicate by-and-large continuity in the European Parliament, including an ongoing shift to the right on contested issues due to a perforated 'cordon sanitaire'. But the election results had heavily disruptive consequences on the national level, which in France has triggered snap parliamentary elections. This will have pronounced impact on the balance of power in the (European) Council and on the EU as a whole.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {Political Advertising in the 2024 European elections - Between Europeanisation and the protection of electoral integrity online}, pages = {8}, abstract = {Election campaigns are increasingly conducted online. Social media platforms in particular shape political discourse and facilitate new ways of delivering political messages. This was initially considered a boon for democracy, but opaque manipulation tactics quickly turned it into a threat to fair and transparent elections. National regulatory frameworks have often proved to be inadequate for online campaigns and the transnational nature of European elections. The EU has reacted to this with a regulation on political advertising. The initiative facilitates transnational campaigning online and aims to protect the integrity of European elections. The 2024 European elections will be the first time EU rules operate in this area, putting these to the test. This election cycle will indicate whether political actors are striking out for more cross-border campaigns and whether they suffice to protect European elections. Critical here is how online platforms implement the new rules and how transparent they are about campaign-related posts on their sites.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Flying blind? Why EU administrations need better data and analytical capacities}, pages = {10}, abstract = {To achieve some recent EU priorities, such as boosting clean tech manufacturing, reducing energy prices, or strengthening economic resilience, policy makers are intervening more actively in the economy. Getting these types of policies right requires a thorough understanding of the respective business environment, technologies, and market developments. This policy brief argues that the EU level lacks the data and the analytic capacities that are needed to achieve this understanding. The next EU Commission should address these shortcomings by collecting more data in the narrow areas subject to vertical government intervention, by improving how data gets collected, and by dedicating more staff to data-driven analyses.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AbouChadiJansenKollbergetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Abou-Chadi, Tarik and Jansen, Jannik and Kollberg, Markus and Redeker, Nils}, title = {Debunking the Backlash - Uncovering European Voters' Climate Preferences}, pages = {22}, abstract = {The notion of a broad green backlash is set to dominate this year's European election campaign. Based on new survey data from more than 15.000 respondents in Germany, France and Poland, we show that it is largely overblown. A majority of voters still wish for a more ambitious climate policy and would support a raft of concrete measures to bring down emissions. However, supporting pivotal voters in the middle will require a stronger focus on green investment and industrial policy and offsetting measures for effective but unpopular policies like carbon pricing. Parties should not waste the coming months outbidding each other over how to cater to imagined climate fatigue but compete over concrete recipes to green the economy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Handle with care - How Europe can reap the benefits of securitisation}, pages = {11}, abstract = {Provided it is sufficiently regulated, securitisation can help to fund the economy and share risks within the monetary union. Securitisation combines the advantages of banks in lending and of financial markets in financing. However, a lack of standardisation and legal harmonisation currently prevents the EU from reaping the benefits of this instrument. Weakening the prudential framework will not create a truly European market but may pose new risks to financial stability. Instead, this Policy Brief argues that to scale up securitisation, overcoming the fragmentation in national contract and insolvency laws in the longer term will be key. In the meantime, the European Commission should cut unnecessary red tape and establish an EU-wide standardised securitisation product tailored to an asset class that shows sustainable growth potential. Renovation loans are a promising option.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {On the road to the 2024 European elections: Institutional timeline and missed opportunities}, pages = {8}, abstract = {The 2024 European elections could mark a turning point in EU politics: The European Parliament has traditionally been a progressive force in EU policymaking, often pushing for more far-reaching, European solutions than the Council. This dynamic could fundamentally change after the 2024 elections, with the current power balance expected to shift in favour of more right-wing forces. But even without a turn towards a Eurosceptic majority, the outcome will determine the direction of policies decided by the Parliament and shape EU politics over the next five years. This policy brief offers an overview of the need-to-know for this election year. First, it details the institutional timeline until the end of the current legislative cycle. Second, it provides an overview of how European political parties are approaching the election campaign. Third, it discusses election day, possible new majorities in Parliament and inevitable institutional haggling over key positions. Finally, it describes the missed reform opportunities since the 2019 elections and how this may undermine the integrity of the June poll.}, language = {en} } @techreport{JaegerRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp and Redeker, Nils}, title = {Delivering on Draghi - How to finally get real about the EU's clean industrial strategy}, pages = {12}, abstract = {With the Clean Industrial Deal (CID), the European Commission has pledged to finally get real about a common clean industrial policy. This would be a first. Previous attempts resulted in an industrial policy in name only. In practice, they suffered from a lack of sectoral focus, poor coordination across policy fields, and insufficient financial backing. New data from 280,000 state aid awards shows that of the €353 billion granted on the supply side since 2019, only 12\% targeted sectors the EU identified as strategically important. To move beyond half-measures, the CID should now act fast and pragmatically on three fronts: First, it should clearly define what specific sectors to support and why. Second, rather than waiting for new coordination frameworks, it should deploy existing EU tools—such as trade policy, procurement rules, and regulation—to develop sector-specific strategies. And third, as our new data indicates that fragmentation risks in clean industries remain limited, it should make full use of state aid instruments to direct national subsidies toward priority industries.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GuttenbergRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Guttenberg, Lucas and Redeker, Nils}, title = {How to defend Europe without risking another euro crisis}, pages = {12}, abstract = {Europe intends to rapidly and strongly increase its defense spending. It should do so without risking Europe's fiscal sustainability and financial stability at a time of great danger. We argue that the Commission's current plan to use the flexibility built in the EU's fiscal rules will not achieve this: On the one hand, this will not lead to the long-term certainty over available resources for defense spending that is now needed. On the other hand, relying on the flexibility and in particular the use of the national escape clause would likely amount to an unplugging of the rules that could stoke strong market reactions. Therefore, the best way to create the necessary fiscal space is a targeted and temporary exemption of defense spending from the fiscal rules. We outline how this could be done through a change of the legal texts. Finally, we explain how common borrowing could complement a rule change if member states agree to pool decision-making powers in defense policy matters.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GuttenbergRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Guttenberg, Lucas and Redeker, Nils}, title = {Luft nach oben: Wieso die EU-Fiskalregeln Spielraum f{\"u}r eine Reform der Schuldenbremse lassen}, publisher = {Jacques Delors Centre, Bertelsmann Stiftung}, pages = {12}, abstract = {In Deutschland hat sich eine rege Debatte dar{\"u}ber entsponnen, ob und wie die Schuldenbremse zu reformieren sei, um wichtige Investitionsbedarfe stemmen zu k{\"o}nnen. Gegen eine Reform wird allerdings immer wieder vorgebracht, die gerade erst reformierten EU-Fiskalregeln seien f{\"u}r Deutschland im Ergebnis restriktiver als die Schuldenbremse. Tr{\"a}fe dies zu, w{\"a}re eine Reform der Schuldenbremse entweder wertlos oder aber der neu geschaffene Spielraum k{\"o}nnte nur zum Preis des Bruchs europ{\"a}ischer Regeln genutzt werden. In diesem Policy Brief untersuchen wir die Interaktion zwischen den EU-Fiskalregeln und der Schuldenbremse und kommen zu einem differenzierten Ergebnis: Erstens enthalten die europ{\"a}ischen Regeln systematisch mehr Spielraum f{\"u}r schuldenfinanzierte Ausgaben als die Schuldenbremse. Dieser zus{\"a}tzliche Spielraum ergibt sich sowohl bei der Festlegung des mehrj{\"a}hrigen Ausgabenpfades wie auch danach bei der {\"U}berwachung der Regeln. Der Spielraum w{\"a}chst zweitens dadurch, dass schuldenfinanzierte Ausgaben f{\"u}r die St{\"a}rkung von Wachstum und Wachstumspotenzial genutzt und sie von Reformen begleitet werden, die das Wachstumspotenzial anheben. Drittens beschr{\"a}nken die europ{\"a}ischen Regeln die Ausweitung konsumtiver Ausgaben deutlich. Eine Ausnahme hiervon bilden allerdings Verteidigungsausgaben.}, language = {de} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {A new European Democracy Agenda - The Commission's security focus and what it misses}, pages = {12}, abstract = {Ursula von der Leyen's political guidelines cite security, prosperity, and democracy as overarching priorities for the next five years. This emphasis appears appropriate, considering that the quality of democracy has been declining significantly across Europe in the past decade. But while democracy is named as a priority, von der Leyen's proposed action in this area for the next legislative period is limited: democracy is framed mostly as a security issue, with threats stemming from hostile foreign actors in the online information space. This approach risks disproportionately occupying attention that leave other, internal threats to democracy in the EU unaddressed or deprioritised. This paper proposes four areas for action over the next legislative period to more effectively and comprehensively address the risks that European democracy currently faces. First, the Commission should re-evaluate its current legislative agenda for fostering democracy. Second, it should support civil society organisations, human rights defenders and independent journalists, including through funding. Third, it should make use of the available financial tools to protect the EU budget. Fourth, it should contribute to devising and protecting minimum standards for democracy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LeichthammerFabry, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Leichthammer, Arthur and Fabry, Elvire}, title = {The EU's Art of the Deal: Shaping a unified response to Trump's tariff threats}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Donald Trump's re-election as US president presents the European Union with significant economic and political challenges. The prospect of unilateral and aggressive US trade policies risks undermining the EU's collective economic interests and fragmenting its unity. However, the EU is better prepared to navigate these challenges than during Trump's first term. This policy brief explores the economic vulnerabilities the EU is exposed to by Trump's foreign economic policy and investigates the expanded tools at the EU's disposal to fend off this threat. Through a mix of deterrence strategies and targeted incentives such as increased energy and defence procurement, the EU can bolster its negotiating position, which strength will fundamentally rest on its unity. Moreover, the brief advocates for structural diversification of trade relationships to safeguard its long-term economic resilience.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Leichthammer, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Leichthammer, Arthur}, title = {Welcoming Chinese FDI with open arms - and a clenched fist}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Despite imposing substantial anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese EVs, the EU has wisely kept the door open for Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) across the EV value chain. Chinese FDI can enhance EU competitiveness by introducing high-value jobs, technological transfers, and innovation. However, these economic benefits are not given. If gone unchecked, FDI could be used to circumvent tariffs without bringing added economic value, could undermine fair competition within the Single Market and bring security risk. A robust framework is needed to mitigate these risks. Three priorities stand out: ensuring that value is created within the Union and key components are produced locally, applying the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) to safeguard fair competition, and harmonising security standards to manage risks more effectively.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Utilising national subsidies for EU industrial policy}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Achieving the EU's industrial policy objectives requires large-scale public financial support. Since EU-level funds are scarce at least in the short term, national state aid must be relied on to fill the gap. However, national state aid is currently not coherently directed at EU priorities, nor are the selection and disbursement mechanisms harmonised across member states, resulting in an ineffective and inefficient policy landscape. This policy brief analyses the instruments the EU already has at its disposal to better align national state aid, and recommends new tools for addressing the gaps identified.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {Free speech and fair rules - How the EU can protect the integrity of democratic discourse online}, pages = {8}, abstract = {Elon Musk has used his platform X as a megaphone to promote the far-right party AfD in German elections, spread disinformation across Europe and fuel riots in the UK. While other online platforms might not seem to have a similarly blatant political agenda, reports about Russian interference campaigns and non-transparent amplifications of certain political actors on social media persist. This is a problem for free and fair political competition and for democratic discourse in Europe. The principles of fairness and equal opportunity require that political actors are free to make their voices heard on a level playing field. On online platforms, an increasingly important arena for democratic discourse, that fairness appears to depend mainly on the goodwill of a few American tech oligarchs. But the EU is not powerless in the face of this. This policy brief explores what threats online platforms like X pose for public discourse in Europe and what the EU can do to mitigate them.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Leichthammer, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Leichthammer, Arthur}, title = {Navigating the Geoeconomic Tide: The Commission's quest for a policy compass}, pages = {10}, abstract = {In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen promised a geopolitical Commission. Back then, the proclamation was largely derided as empty rhetoric. However, in recent years, a dizzying number of geoeconomic initiatives have come from Brussels, revising and tweaking existing tools and measures, developing new instruments, and announcing a grand new European Economic Security Strategy. This policy brief examines the progress made and outlines the key challenges for the next Commission. While the current Commission expanded the EU's geoeconomic toolbox, the incoming Commission must prioritise harmonisation to prevent fragmentation, allocate substantial funds to enhance resilience, and streamline institutional processes to facilitate coherent policymaking at a European level.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Quaritsch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Quaritsch, Luise}, title = {Kein EU-Geld f{\"u}r Th{\"u}ringen? - Die Anwendbarkeit von EU-Rechtsstaatlichkeitsmechanismen auf Regionen}, pages = {8}, abstract = {Am 1. September ist Landtagswahl in Th{\"u}ringen. Dort k{\"o}nnte die rechtsextreme AfD mit deutlichem Vorsprung st{\"a}rkste Kraft werden. Deshalb wird jetzt diskutiert, wie man Demokratie und Rechtsstaatlichkeit auf Landesebene vor autorit{\"a}ren Kr{\"a}ften sch{\"u}tzen kann. Auch die EU k{\"o}nnte hier eine Rolle spielen. Bisher hat die Kommission haupts{\"a}chlich auf Angriffe auf demokratische Institutionen auf nationaler Ebene reagiert. Aber auch regionale Regierungen m{\"u}ssen sich an die Grundwerte der EU halten. In einem f{\"o}deralen System wie Deutschland spielen die Bundesl{\"a}nder außerdem eine wichtige Rolle bei der Umsetzung von Europarecht und verwalten EU-F{\"o}rdergelder in Milliardenh{\"o}he. Die Analyse zeigt am Beispiel von Th{\"u}ringen, dass die meisten Rechtsstaatlichkeitsinstrumente der EU auch auf regionaler Ebene angewandt werden k{\"o}nnten. Dabei w{\"a}re das Zur{\"u}ckhalten von EU-F{\"o}rdergeldern das effektivste Mittel.}, language = {de} } @techreport{Heimbach, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Heimbach, Henriette}, title = {A Watchdog on the Leash - 5 Years of Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly}, pages = {8}, abstract = {In March 2024, the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly (FGPA) celebrated its fifth anniversary. This binational forum can be viewed as a genuine step towards integration in Franco-German relations besides the Aachen Treaty. The FGPA is designed to be a watchdog over the Franco-German treaties and to bring together political actors of both countries to discuss and resolve conflictual issues and contribute to European initiatives. After five years of its being, the results are mixed. Franco-German governmental relations are more conflictual than ever. While the FGPA proved added value during the Covid-19 pandemic by convincing the French and German interior ministers to lift border controls, it has been notably reticent on the Ukraine war and other foreign policy conflicts. The FGPA would benefit by being bolder and extricating itself step-by-step from national political constraints. In this way, parliamentary dialogue can help the two key partners to find common ground on a range of European issues.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Kohlenberger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kohlenberger, Judith}, title = {Asylpolitischer Unterbietungswettbewerb ohne Gewinner: Warum es europ{\"a}ische L{\"o}sungen braucht}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Der Policy Brief thematisiert die Herausforderungen und Defizite der aktuellen europ{\"a}ischen Migrationspolitik, insbesondere den „Wettbewerb nach unten" der Mitgliedstaaten, vor dem Hintergrund einer sich versch{\"a}rfenden Migrationsdebatte in Deutschland. Immer mehr EU-Mitgliedsstaaten ergreifen restriktivere Maßnahmen, von Auslagerungsabkommen {\"u}ber Binnengrenzkontrollen bis hin zur Aussetzung des Asylrechts, was zu einer immer ungleicheren Verteilung des Migrationsdrucks in Europa f{\"u}hrt. Nationale Alleing{\"a}nge und populistische Rhetorik untergraben die Solidarit{\"a}t innerhalb der EU und f{\"u}hren zu einer Aush{\"o}hlung unionsrechtlicher Prinzipien. Dabei sind viele dieser Maßnahmen symbolischer Natur und verfehlen ihre intendierte Wirkung. Zielf{\"u}hrender w{\"a}re das Hinarbeiten auf eine gemeinsame europ{\"a}ische L{\"o}sung, die faire Asylverfahren und menschenw{\"u}rdige Unterbringung in allen Mitgliedsstaaten sicherstellt. Deutschland k{\"o}nnte hierbei eine Vorbildfunktion einnehmen, insbesondere durch die Umsetzung der j{\"u}ngst beschlossenen Reform des Gemeinsamen Europ{\"a}ischen Asylsystems (GEAS) und eine st{\"a}rkere Einbindung von EU-Institutionen zur {\"U}berwachung und Durchsetzung der Asylstandards.}, language = {de} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Europe ventures forward: Getting the scaleup of cleantech right}, pages = {16}, abstract = {Public interventions that help European startups to scale up their businesses have so far focused mainly on establishing a functioning market for venture capital (VC) and making it attractive to private investors. However, VC funding in Europe remains a fraction of what is required, still relies heavily on the public purse and fails to channel resources into strategic green sectors. Changing this requires three measures. First, the EU should enable institutional investors to invest independently in VC. Second, the European Investment Fund should strengthen the sustainability impact of its support for VCs. And third, the European Investment Bank should expand its direct investments in cleantech scaleups that are too risky for private investors.}, language = {en} } @techreport{OstaninaTardy, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ostanina, Sascha and Tardy, Thierry}, title = {Turbo-charging the EU's defence industry and security posture}, pages = {16}, abstract = {The first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy and its financial leg, the European Defence Industrial Programme, saw the light of day in March 2024. The strategy seeks to ameliorate deficiencies in EU defence readiness identified in light of the Russo-Ukrainian war. It offers an ambitious agenda and tailor-made incentives designed to encourage EU member states to invest more, better, together, and European. The Jacques Delors Institute's Associate Research Fellow Thierry Tardy and the Jacques Delors Centre's Security Policy Fellow Sascha Ostanina argue that the strategy is a good start to motivate European countries for more action in the defence sector. However, as long as the EU fails to take on a larger defence mandate via treaty change, the strategy success will hinge upon whether the member states, and their respective industrial defence sectors, will be willing to step up to the plate.}, language = {en} } @techreport{TordoirRedekerGuttenberg, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Tordoir, Sander and Redeker, Nils and Guttenberg, Lucas}, title = {How buy-European rules can help save Europe's car industry}, publisher = {Bertelsmann Stiftung}, address = {G{\"u}tersloh}, pages = {18}, abstract = {Europe's car industry faces a perfect storm. Chinese car exports are surging, European producers are being squeezed out of global markets, US tariffs are rising, and domestic demand remains 20\% below pre-pandemic levels. Instead of sliding into a costly muddle of regulatory rollbacks, bailouts, and fragmented national subsidies, the EU should harness its single market - 450 million consumers and a vast corporate sector - to drive demand for Europe-made vehicles. That means co-ordinating consumer subsidies with a buy-European clause, applying it to both private and corporate fleets, and using it as a platform for reciprocal EV-subsidy agreements with trusted trade partners. A window for action is open: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain all need to renew their EV-support schemes in the coming months. Together, they represent 70\% of EU car registrations—and could launch broader European coordination.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mack, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mack, Sebastian}, title = {Get your act together - The EU must push ahead with banking union to boost confidence in its banking system}, abstract = {EU banks have so far weathered the storm caused by the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and sharp interest rate hikes. However, the failure of Credit Suisse and three US tech banks underlines how quickly investor and creditor trust can erode, prompting regulators to intervene and governments to provide public support. While swift and decisive action in the US and Switzerland prevented a systemic bank crisis, the EU will struggle to preserve financial stability if things go badly wrong. To boost confidence in its banking system, it is therefore high time for the EU to push ahead with banking union. To get its act together, the EU should 1) improve banks' resilience by adopting strict prudential regulation instead of creating new vulnerabilities, 2) make the crisis management framework more credible to ensure that banks can fail without using taxpayers' money, and 3) put in place European backstops to bank resolution and deposit insurance to withstand a systemic crisis.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Jaeger, type = {Working Paper}, author = {J{\"a}ger, Philipp}, title = {Cautionary tale or model for Europe? How member states should react to Germany's new electricity subsidy}, pages = {14}, abstract = {The EU's updated state-aid rules now permit direct industrial electricity subsidies (IESs), allowing Germany to introduce its planned 'Industriestrompreis'. This policy brief presents new data on subsidies for industry in major EU member states, showing that the competitiveness threat of the planned German IES is limited. As industrial policy tools, however, IESs are argued to be blunt and fiscally expensive, compared to narrower instruments targeted either at decarbonisation, EU resilience or economic objectives. Other member states should hence refrain from simply copying the German IES. Ultimately, national subsidies like an IES can only help industry if swift and substantial progress is made towards a more durable policy framework characterised by a strong EU dimension.}, language = {en} }