@article{CedermanSkredeGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {The Diffusion of Inclusion: An Open-Polity Model of Ethnic Powersharing}, series = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {51}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, number = {10}, doi = {10.1177/0010414017740602}, pages = {1279 -- 1313}, abstract = {While there is a growing consensus that ethnic inclusion produces peace, less is known about what causes transitions to power sharing between ethnic groups in central governments in multiethnic states. The few studies that have addressed this question have proposed explanations stressing exclusively domestic factors. Yet, power sharing is spatially clustered, which suggests that diffusion may be at play. Inspired by studies of democratic diffusion, we study the spread of inclusive policies with an "open-polity model" that explicitly traces diffusion from inclusion in other states. Our findings indicate that the relevant diffusion processes operate primarily at the level of world regions rather than globally or between territorial neighbors. Thus, the more inclusive the region, the more likely a shift to power sharing becomes. Shifts away from inclusion to dominance are less common since World War II, but they are more likely in regional settings characterized by ethnic exclusion.}, language = {en} } @article{GleditschHugSchubigeretal., author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Hug, Simon and Schubiger, Livia I. and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {International Conventions and Non-State Actors: Selection, Signaling and Reputation Effects}, series = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {62}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-0027}, doi = {10.1177/0022002716650924}, pages = {346 -- 380}, abstract = {Whether international humanitarian norms are respected during and after civil conflict depends on the behavior of both governments and nonstate actors (NSAs). However, international conventions on the protection of civilians generally do not address NSAs, as such conventions are open only to the representatives of states. In a pioneering initiative, the nongovernmental organization Geneva Call has started to address this problem by soliciting NSAs to sign "deeds of commitment" to ban particular activities violating humanitarian norms. Focusing on the case of antipersonnel mines, we examine why NSAs would choose to sign conventions that limit their autonomy, and whether such conventions can change the behavior of governments and nonstate armed groups. We propose a game-theoretic model of how the interaction between governments and NSAs shape their incentives to commit to and comply with international humanitarian norms. Our empirical evidence highlights the importance of these interdependencies between governments and NSAs in the realm of humanitarian engagements.}, language = {en} } @article{HegreMetternichNygardetal., author = {Hegre, Havard and Metternich, Nils W. and Nygard, Havard Mokleiv and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Introduction: Forecasting in Peace Research}, series = {Journal of Peace Research}, volume = {54}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-3433}, doi = {10.1177/0022343317691330}, pages = {113 -- 124}, abstract = {Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Conflict: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons?}, series = {Journal of Peace Research}, volume = {52}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-3433}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684191}, pages = {262 -- 274}, abstract = {Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on 'the waning of ethnic war'. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments' accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Inequalities between Ethnic Groups, Conflict, and Political Organizations}, series = {Ethnopolitics}, volume = {16}, journal = {Ethnopolitics}, number = {1}, issn = {1744-9065}, doi = {10.1080/17449057.2016.1235342}, pages = {21 -- 27}, abstract = {We highlight that ethnic conflicts are typically about 'nationality problems' of self-rule, and thus best understood as ethno-nationalist conflicts that are driven by political and economic inequalities between groups. Recent, large-scale data collection and analysis find systematic evidence for such a link, but what is needed is a firmer understanding of the precise causal mechanisms, including ethnic mobilization processes through political organizations. We articulate a research project along these lines.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigHunzikerCederman, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Hunziker, Philipp and Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict}, series = {American Journal of Political Science}, volume = {60}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, number = {4}, issn = {0092-5853}, doi = {10.1111/ajps.12236}, pages = {882 -- 898}, abstract = {Postulating grievance-based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions to include or exclude could be motivated by the anticipation of conflict. We counter this threat to inference by articulating a causal pathway that explains ethnic groups' access to power independently of conflict. Focusing on postcolonial states, we exploit differences in colonial empires' strategies of rule to model which ethnic groups were represented in government at the time of independence. This identification strategy allows estimating the exogenous effect of inclusiveness on conflict. We find that previous studies have tended to understate the conflict-dampening impact of political inclusion. This finding suggests that grievances have been prematurely dismissed from conventional explanations of conflict, and that policy makers should consider conflict resolution methods based on power sharing and group rights.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Territorial Economy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late?}, series = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {109}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, number = {2}, issn = {0003-0554}, doi = {10.1017/S0003055415000118}, pages = {354 -- 370}, abstract = {This article evaluates the effect of territorial autonomy on the outbreak of internal conflict by analyzing ethnic groups around the world since WWII. Shedding new light on an ongoing debate, we argue that the critics have overstated the case against autonomy policies. Our evidence indicates that decentralization has a significant conflict-preventing effect where there is no prior conflict history. In postconflict settings, however, granting autonomy can still be helpful in combination with central power sharing arrangements. Yet, on its own, postconflict autonomy concessions may be too little, too late. Accounting for endogeneity, we also instrument for autonomy in postcolonial states by exploiting that French, as opposed to British, colonial rule rarely relied on decentralized governance. This identification strategy suggests that na{\"i}ve analysis tends to underestimate the pacifying influence of decentralization.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschSalehyanetal., author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Salehyan, Idean and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War}, series = {Inernational Organization}, volume = {67}, journal = {Inernational Organization}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1017/S0020818313000064}, pages = {389 -- 410}, abstract = {A series of studies has shown that civil wars are caused not only by factors inside countries, but also by effects operating across state borders. Whereas a first wave of quantitative studies demonstrated that such effects make the "closed-polity" assumption untenable, more recently researchers have identified particular causal mechanisms driving conflict. Despite these recent advances, a central puzzle remains unresolved, namely why ethnic groups that at least in theory could count on support from large transborder ethnic kin (TEK) groups often have remained surprisingly peaceful, such as the stranded Russian populations in the "near abroad." We propose a theoretical framework that extends the analysis from the primary dyad between the incumbent and the challenger group by adding a secondary dyad that pits the incumbent against the TEK group. We postulate a curvilinear effect of the TEK group's relative size on conflict onset. Using a new data set on transnational ethnic links, we find that that the risk of conflict increases within the middle range of the size spectrum, consistent with our main hypothesis. This means that large TEK groups have a conflict-dampening effect, provided that they control their own state. Excluded TEK groups, however, are not associated with lower conflict probabilities.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigMetternichCedermanetal., author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Metternich, Nils W. and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, title = {Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil Wars}, series = {World Politics}, volume = {64}, journal = {World Politics}, number = {1}, issn = {0043-8871}, doi = {10.1017/S004388711100030X}, pages = {78 -- 115}, abstract = {Previous research has focused primarily on how ethnicity may trigger civil war, and its effect on conflict duration remains disputed. Rather than treating conflict as a direct consequence of ethnic cleavages, the authors argue that ethnicity per se does not affect civil war duration. Instead, its effect depends on its relationship to political institutions. They employ a dyadic approach that emphasizes the political context in which both government leaders and nonstate challengers can capitalize on the ascriptive nature of ethnicity. They show that although states can initially benefit from politicizing ethnic relations, once violent conflict breaks out, such policies may backfire on the government and make it difficult for incumbent governments to accept settlements that could terminate conflicts. Past policies of ethnic exclusion also benefit rebel organizations fighting the government, since the resulting grievances increase collective group solidarity and render individual fighters more cost tolerant. Using a new data set that codes the nexus between rebel organizations and ethnic groups, as well as information on ethnopolitical exclusion, the authors find considerable support for their propositions.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigWeidmannGirardinetal., author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Weidmann, Nils B. and Girardin, Luc and Wimmer, Andreas and Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset}, series = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, volume = {28}, journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, number = {5}, issn = {0738-8942}, doi = {10.1177/0738894210393217}, pages = {423 -- 437}, abstract = {This article introduces GeoEPR, a geocoded version of the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset that charts politically relevant ethnic groups across space and time. We describe the dataset in detail, discuss its advantages and limitations, and use it in a replication of Cederman, Wimmer and Min's (2010) study on the causes of ethno-nationalist conflict. We show that territorial conflicts are more likely to involve groups that settle far away from the capital city and close to the border, while these spatial variables have no effect for governmental conflicts.}, language = {en} }