@article{PoloWucherpfennig2021, author = {Polo, Sara M.T. and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Trojan Horse, Copycat, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terrorism Nexus}, series = {The Journal of Politics}, volume = {84}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1086/714926}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-38244}, pages = {33 -- 49}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at the heart of the 'refugee crisis'. Yet, we lack rigorous evidence for such claims. This article theoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movements plausibly lead to different types of terrorist outcomes. Combining original data with a multi-pronged approach involving a treatment-placebo design as well as instrumental variable estimation, we provide systematic and robust evidence that sheds new light on the security implications of forced migration. Our findings challenge the claim that hosting refugees heightens the risk of "importing" terrorist attacks against nationals of host countries, especially in developed countries. However, in these countries refugees themselves are particularly prone to becoming the targets of terrorist attacks by natives, driven by fear and revenge. Dominant policy responses to the refugee crisis that raise fears and suspicions are therefore not only ill-suited, but potentially counterproductive.}, language = {en} } @article{RodriguezSanchezWucherpfennigRischkeetal., author = {Rodr{\´i}guez S{\´a}nchez, Alejandra and Wucherpfennig, Julian and Rischke, Ramona and Iacus, Stefano Maria}, title = {Search-and-rescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration: Predictive modeling to answer causal queries in migration research}, series = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {13}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-023-38119-4}, abstract = {State- and private-led search-and-rescue are hypothesized to foster irregular migration (and thereby migrant fatalities) by altering the decision calculus associated with the journey. We here investigate this 'pull factor' claim by focusing on the Central Mediterranean route, the most frequented and deadly irregular migration route towards Europe during the past decade. Based on three intervention periods—(1) state-led Mare Nostrum, (2) private-led search-and-rescue, and (3) coordinated pushbacks by the Libyan Coast Guard—which correspond to substantial changes in laws, policies, and practices of search-and-rescue in the Mediterranean, we are able to test the 'pull factor' claim by employing an innovative machine learning method in combination with causal inference. We employ a Bayesian structural time-series model to estimate the effects of these three intervention periods on the migration flow as measured by crossing attempts (i.e., time-series aggregate counts of arrivals, pushbacks, and deaths), adjusting for various known drivers of irregular migration. We combine multiple sources of traditional and non-traditional data to build a synthetic, predicted counterfactual flow. Results show that our predictive modeling approach accurately captures the behavior of the target time-series during the various pre-intervention periods of interest. A comparison of the observed and predicted counterfactual time-series in the post-intervention periods suggest that pushback policies did affect the migration flow, but that the search-and-rescue periods did not yield a discernible difference between the observed and the predicted counterfactual number of crossing attempts. Hence we do not find support for search-and-rescue as a driver of irregular migration. In general, this modeling approach lends itself to forecasting migration flows with the goal of answering causal queries in migration research.}, language = {en} } @article{GleditschHugSchubigeretal., author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Hug, Simon and Schubiger, Livia I. and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {International Conventions and Non-State Actors: Selection, Signaling and Reputation Effects}, series = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, volume = {62}, journal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-0027}, doi = {10.1177/0022002716650924}, pages = {346 -- 380}, abstract = {Whether international humanitarian norms are respected during and after civil conflict depends on the behavior of both governments and nonstate actors (NSAs). However, international conventions on the protection of civilians generally do not address NSAs, as such conventions are open only to the representatives of states. In a pioneering initiative, the nongovernmental organization Geneva Call has started to address this problem by soliciting NSAs to sign "deeds of commitment" to ban particular activities violating humanitarian norms. Focusing on the case of antipersonnel mines, we examine why NSAs would choose to sign conventions that limit their autonomy, and whether such conventions can change the behavior of governments and nonstate armed groups. We propose a game-theoretic model of how the interaction between governments and NSAs shape their incentives to commit to and comply with international humanitarian norms. Our empirical evidence highlights the importance of these interdependencies between governments and NSAs in the realm of humanitarian engagements.}, language = {en} } @article{BormannCedermanGatesetal., author = {Bormann, Nils-Christian and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gates, Scott and Graham, Benjamin A.T. and Hug, Simon and Strom, Kaare and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Power Sharing: Institutions, Behavior, and Peace}, series = {American Journal of Political Science}, volume = {63}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1111/ajps.12407}, pages = {84 -- 100}, language = {en} } @article{Wucherpfennig, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Executive Power Sharing in the Face of Civil War}, series = {International Studies Quarterly}, volume = {65(4)}, journal = {International Studies Quarterly}, doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab047}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-39905}, pages = {1027 -- 1039}, abstract = {Scholars have debated whether executive power sharing can secure peace in multiethnic states, but concerns about endogeneity due to reverse causation render this a difficult problem for empirical analyses. In the absence of a suitable instrumental variable, I explore an actor-based approach by studying a simple formal model. This highlights the conditions under which governments are likely to share power with a domestic challenger depending on the threat of violence. I then formulate a statistical "strategic selection" model that closely mirrors the theoretical model, thereby directly incorporating endogeneity. Applied to data at the level of ethnic groups, the estimation results indicate that power sharing is indeed enacted strategically by governments in anticipation of the risk of conflict. However, shedding new light on an ongoing debate, I find that the critics have overstated the case against power sharing: rather than spurring it, power sharing robustly reduces civil conflict.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigCederman, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {Pre-Colonial and Colonial Origins of Inclusive Peace}, series = {The Journal of Politics}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, doi = {10.1086/719633}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-43555}, abstract = {In a recent contribution to this journal, McAlexander (2020, hereafter McAlexander) seeks to re-analyze Wucherpfennig, Hunziker and Cederman (2016, hereafter WHC) who instrument the effect of ethnic group inclusion on civil conflict by exploiting differences in colonial governance between the French and the British empire. McAlexander proposes a research design that replaces the between-colony dimension of WHC's comparison with a continuous measure of indirect rule that varies be-tween British colonies. We show that McAlexander's study hardly poses a viable reanalysis because his approach is compromised by problems of ecological inference and post-treatment confounding, lead-ing to biased inference by design. We propose a more informative reanalysis, indicating that British colonialism built on suitable customary institutions, unlike the French empire. Although tentative, our analytical extension lends support to WHC's original findings, most importantly that inclusion reduces the risk of post-colonial civil conflict.}, language = {en} } @article{MetternichWucherpfennig, author = {Metternich, Nils W. and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars}, series = {International Interactions}, volume = {46}, journal = {International Interactions}, number = {2020}, doi = {10.1080/03050629.2020.1737800}, abstract = {Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.}, language = {en} } @book{CedermanHugWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Hug, Simon and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Sharing Power, Securing Peace? Ethnic Inclusion and Civil War.}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, isbn = {9781108418140}, publisher = {Hertie School}, language = {en} } @techreport{SorgWucherpfennig, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Sorg, Alexander and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Before deploying more U.S. forces to Europe, consider the consequences}, series = {War on the Rocks}, journal = {War on the Rocks}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigKachiBormannetal., author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Kachi, Aya and Bormann, Nils-Christian and Hunziker, Philipp}, title = {A Fast Estimator for Binary Choice Models with Spatial, Temporal, and Spatio-Temporal Interdependence}, series = {Political Analysis}, volume = {29(4)}, journal = {Political Analysis}, doi = {10.1017/pan.2020.54}, pages = {570 -- 576}, abstract = {Binary outcome models are frequently used in the social sciences and economics. However, such models are difficult to estimate with interdependent data structures, including spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal autocorrelation because jointly determined error terms in the reduced-form specification are generally analytically intractable. To deal with this problem, simulation-based approaches have been proposed. However, these approaches (i) are computationally intensive and impractical for sizable datasets commonly used in contemporary research, and (ii) rarely address temporal interdependence. As a way forward, we demonstrate how to reduce the computational burden significantly by (i) introducing analytically-tractable pseudo maximum likelihood estimators for latent binary choice models that exhibit interdependence across space and time and by (ii) proposing an implementation strategy that increases computational efficiency considerably. Monte Carlo experiments show that our estimators recover the parameter values as good as commonly used estimation alternatives and require only a fraction of the computational cost.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanSkredeGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {The Diffusion of Inclusion: An Open-Polity Model of Ethnic Powersharing}, series = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {51}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, number = {10}, doi = {10.1177/0010414017740602}, pages = {1279 -- 1313}, abstract = {While there is a growing consensus that ethnic inclusion produces peace, less is known about what causes transitions to power sharing between ethnic groups in central governments in multiethnic states. The few studies that have addressed this question have proposed explanations stressing exclusively domestic factors. Yet, power sharing is spatially clustered, which suggests that diffusion may be at play. Inspired by studies of democratic diffusion, we study the spread of inclusive policies with an "open-polity model" that explicitly traces diffusion from inclusion in other states. Our findings indicate that the relevant diffusion processes operate primarily at the level of world regions rather than globally or between territorial neighbors. Thus, the more inclusive the region, the more likely a shift to power sharing becomes. Shifts away from inclusion to dominance are less common since World War II, but they are more likely in regional settings characterized by ethnic exclusion.}, language = {en} } @article{HegreMetternichNygardetal., author = {Hegre, Havard and Metternich, Nils W. and Nygard, Havard Mokleiv and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Introduction: Forecasting in Peace Research}, series = {Journal of Peace Research}, volume = {54}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-3433}, doi = {10.1177/0022343317691330}, pages = {113 -- 124}, abstract = {Prediction and forecasting have now fully reached peace and conflict research. We define forecasting as predictions about unrealized outcomes given model estimates from realized data, and predictions more generally as the assignment of probability distributions to realized or unrealized outcomes. Increasingly, scholars present within- and out-of-sample prediction results in their publications and sometimes even forecasts for unrealized, future outcomes. The articles in this special issue demonstrate the ability of current approaches to forecast events of interest and contributes to the formulation of best practices for forecasting within peace research. We highlight the role of forecasting for theory evaluation and as a bridge between academics and policymakers, summarize the contributions in the special issue, and provide some thoughts on how research on forecasting in peace research should proceed. We suggest some best practices, noting the importance of theory development, interpretability of models, replicability of results, and data collection.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Predicting the Decline of Ethnic Conflict: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons?}, series = {Journal of Peace Research}, volume = {52}, journal = {Journal of Peace Research}, number = {2}, issn = {0022-3433}, doi = {10.1177/0022343316684191}, pages = {262 -- 274}, abstract = {Many scholars have detected a decrease of political violence, but the causes of this decline remain unclear. As a contribution to this debate, we revisit the controversy over trends in conflict after the end of the Cold War. While many made ominous predictions of surging ethnic warfare, Gurr presented evidence of a pacifying trend since the mid-1990s and predicted a further decline in ethnic conflict in an article on 'the waning of ethnic war'. Leveraging more recent data on ethnic groups and their participation in ethnic civil wars, this study evaluates if Gurr was right about the decline of ethnic conflict, and if he was right for the right reasons. We assess whether an increase in governments' accommodative policies toward ethnic groups can plausibly account for a decline in ethnic civil war. Our findings lend considerable support to an account of the pacifying trend that stresses the granting of group rights, regional autonomy, and inclusion in power-sharing, as well as democratization and peacekeeping.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Inequalities between Ethnic Groups, Conflict, and Political Organizations}, series = {Ethnopolitics}, volume = {16}, journal = {Ethnopolitics}, number = {1}, issn = {1744-9065}, doi = {10.1080/17449057.2016.1235342}, pages = {21 -- 27}, abstract = {We highlight that ethnic conflicts are typically about 'nationality problems' of self-rule, and thus best understood as ethno-nationalist conflicts that are driven by political and economic inequalities between groups. Recent, large-scale data collection and analysis find systematic evidence for such a link, but what is needed is a firmer understanding of the precise causal mechanisms, including ethnic mobilization processes through political organizations. We articulate a research project along these lines.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigHunzikerCederman, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Hunziker, Philipp and Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict}, series = {American Journal of Political Science}, volume = {60}, journal = {American Journal of Political Science}, number = {4}, issn = {0092-5853}, doi = {10.1111/ajps.12236}, pages = {882 -- 898}, abstract = {Postulating grievance-based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions to include or exclude could be motivated by the anticipation of conflict. We counter this threat to inference by articulating a causal pathway that explains ethnic groups' access to power independently of conflict. Focusing on postcolonial states, we exploit differences in colonial empires' strategies of rule to model which ethnic groups were represented in government at the time of independence. This identification strategy allows estimating the exogenous effect of inclusiveness on conflict. We find that previous studies have tended to understate the conflict-dampening impact of political inclusion. This finding suggests that grievances have been prematurely dismissed from conventional explanations of conflict, and that policy makers should consider conflict resolution methods based on power sharing and group rights.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Territorial Economy in the Shadow of Conflict: Too Little, Too Late?}, series = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {109}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, number = {2}, issn = {0003-0554}, doi = {10.1017/S0003055415000118}, pages = {354 -- 370}, abstract = {This article evaluates the effect of territorial autonomy on the outbreak of internal conflict by analyzing ethnic groups around the world since WWII. Shedding new light on an ongoing debate, we argue that the critics have overstated the case against autonomy policies. Our evidence indicates that decentralization has a significant conflict-preventing effect where there is no prior conflict history. In postconflict settings, however, granting autonomy can still be helpful in combination with central power sharing arrangements. Yet, on its own, postconflict autonomy concessions may be too little, too late. Accounting for endogeneity, we also instrument for autonomy in postcolonial states by exploiting that French, as opposed to British, colonial rule rarely relied on decentralized governance. This identification strategy suggests that na{\"i}ve analysis tends to underestimate the pacifying influence of decentralization.}, language = {en} } @article{CedermanGleditschSalehyanetal., author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Salehyan, Idean and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War}, series = {Inernational Organization}, volume = {67}, journal = {Inernational Organization}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1017/S0020818313000064}, pages = {389 -- 410}, abstract = {A series of studies has shown that civil wars are caused not only by factors inside countries, but also by effects operating across state borders. Whereas a first wave of quantitative studies demonstrated that such effects make the "closed-polity" assumption untenable, more recently researchers have identified particular causal mechanisms driving conflict. Despite these recent advances, a central puzzle remains unresolved, namely why ethnic groups that at least in theory could count on support from large transborder ethnic kin (TEK) groups often have remained surprisingly peaceful, such as the stranded Russian populations in the "near abroad." We propose a theoretical framework that extends the analysis from the primary dyad between the incumbent and the challenger group by adding a secondary dyad that pits the incumbent against the TEK group. We postulate a curvilinear effect of the TEK group's relative size on conflict onset. Using a new data set on transnational ethnic links, we find that that the risk of conflict increases within the middle range of the size spectrum, consistent with our main hypothesis. This means that large TEK groups have a conflict-dampening effect, provided that they control their own state. Excluded TEK groups, however, are not associated with lower conflict probabilities.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigMetternichCedermanetal., author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Metternich, Nils W. and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, title = {Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil Wars}, series = {World Politics}, volume = {64}, journal = {World Politics}, number = {1}, issn = {0043-8871}, doi = {10.1017/S004388711100030X}, pages = {78 -- 115}, abstract = {Previous research has focused primarily on how ethnicity may trigger civil war, and its effect on conflict duration remains disputed. Rather than treating conflict as a direct consequence of ethnic cleavages, the authors argue that ethnicity per se does not affect civil war duration. Instead, its effect depends on its relationship to political institutions. They employ a dyadic approach that emphasizes the political context in which both government leaders and nonstate challengers can capitalize on the ascriptive nature of ethnicity. They show that although states can initially benefit from politicizing ethnic relations, once violent conflict breaks out, such policies may backfire on the government and make it difficult for incumbent governments to accept settlements that could terminate conflicts. Past policies of ethnic exclusion also benefit rebel organizations fighting the government, since the resulting grievances increase collective group solidarity and render individual fighters more cost tolerant. Using a new data set that codes the nexus between rebel organizations and ethnic groups, as well as information on ethnopolitical exclusion, the authors find considerable support for their propositions.}, language = {en} } @article{WucherpfennigWeidmannGirardinetal., author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Weidmann, Nils B. and Girardin, Luc and Wimmer, Andreas and Cederman, Lars-Erik}, title = {Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time: Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset}, series = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, volume = {28}, journal = {Conflict Management and Peace Science}, number = {5}, issn = {0738-8942}, doi = {10.1177/0738894210393217}, pages = {423 -- 437}, abstract = {This article introduces GeoEPR, a geocoded version of the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset that charts politically relevant ethnic groups across space and time. We describe the dataset in detail, discuss its advantages and limitations, and use it in a replication of Cederman, Wimmer and Min's (2010) study on the causes of ethno-nationalist conflict. We show that territorial conflicts are more likely to involve groups that settle far away from the capital city and close to the border, while these spatial variables have no effect for governmental conflicts.}, language = {en} } @article{GleditschWucherpfennigHugetal., author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Wucherpfennig, Julian and Hug, Simon and Garnes Reigstad, Karina}, title = {Polygyny or Misogyny? Reexamining the "First Law of Intergroup Conflict"}, series = {The Journal of Politics}, volume = {73}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, number = {1}, issn = {0022-3816}, doi = {10.1017/S0022381610001003}, pages = {265 -- 270}, abstract = {Kanazawa (2009) proposes a "first law of intergroup conflict," suggesting that polygyny and its impact on access to reproductive women provides "the ultimate cause" for civil war. This controversial claim is supported by an empirical analysis at odds with most existing studies of civil wars. We reconsider the influence of polygyny in a more conventional statistical model. We fail to find evidence that ethnic groups with polygyny engage more frequently in civil wars, although it is possible to find results indicating that civil wars may be more common in states with legal polygamy. We detail how these findings seem at odds with Kanazawa's theory and argue that misogyny seems a more plausible source of insights into the context for civil war and peace. We then show that civil wars are less common when women's rights are better established and that legal polygamy has no discernable residual effect once women's rights are considered.}, language = {en} } @article{Wucherpfennig, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Dynamik von B{\"u}rgerkriegen: Infektion und/oder Addiktion?}, series = {Identit{\"a}t, Institutionen und {\"O}konomie}, journal = {Identit{\"a}t, Institutionen und {\"O}konomie}, editor = {Bussmann, Margit and Hasenclever, Andreas and Schneider, Gerald}, edition = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift : PVS. Sonderheft 43}, publisher = {VS Verlag f{\"u}r Sozialwissenschaften}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-531-16033-7}, pages = {496 -- 520}, language = {de} } @article{WucherpfennigDeutsch, author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Deutsch, Franziska}, title = {Modernization and Democracy: Theories and Evidence Revisited.}, series = {Living Reviews in Democracy}, volume = {1}, journal = {Living Reviews in Democracy}, issn = {1663-0165}, pages = {1 -- 9}, abstract = {We review the literature on the relation between socio-economic development and political democracy, a field that is commonly known as modernization theory. Guided by the seminal contribution of Lipset (1959), we assess the evolution of this literature along two major dimensions: (1) robustness of the relationship between economic development and democracy and (2) substantiation of the causal mechanism. The evidence to date suggests that Lipset\'s original thesis does indeed find empirical support, and that certain structural conditions are conducive to stable democracy.}, language = {en} } @incollection{CedermanWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Inequalities between Ethnic Groups, Conflict, and Political Organizations}, series = {Ethnic Politics and Conflict/Violence: State of the Field and New Directions}, booktitle = {Ethnic Politics and Conflict/Violence: State of the Field and New Directions}, editor = {Forsberg, Erika and Birnir, J{\´o}hanna K. and Davenport, Christian}, publisher = {Routledge}, address = {Milton Park, UK}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {21 -- 27}, language = {en} } @incollection{CedermanGirardinWucherpfennig, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Girardin, Luc and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Exploring Inequality and Ethnic Conflict: EPR-ETH and GROWup}, series = {Peace and Conflict 2014}, booktitle = {Peace and Conflict 2014}, editor = {Huth, Paul K. and Wilkenfeld, Jonathan and Backer, David A.}, publisher = {Paradigm Publishers}, address = {London}, isbn = {978-1-61205-436-0}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {74 -- 87}, language = {en} } @incollection{WelzelDeutschWucherpfennig, author = {Welzel, Chris and Deutsch, Franziska and Wucherpfennig, Julian}, title = {Civil Values and Value Change in Austria and Germany}, series = {Changing Values, Persisting Cultures: Case Studies in Value Change}, booktitle = {Changing Values, Persisting Cultures: Case Studies in Value Change}, publisher = {Brill Publishers}, address = {Leiden/NL and Boston(MA)/USA}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {199 -- 218}, language = {en} }