@techreport{HaanSunSundeetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Haan, Peter and Sun, Chen and Sunde, Uwe and Weizs{\"a}cker, Georg}, title = {Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals}, series = {Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers}, journal = {Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers}, edition = {No. 4}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4660}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-46602}, pages = {38}, abstract = {We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. Model estimates show that the pattern is consistent with a time perception where shorter time intervals have a proportionally larger weight. We also find that the respondents' degree of additivity is correlated with making larger financial investments.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BoenischKoenigSchweighoferKodritschetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {B{\"o}nisch, Felix and K{\"o}nig, Tobias and Schweighofer-Kodritsch, Sebastian and Weizs{\"a}cker, Georg}, title = {Beliefs as a Means of Self-Control? Evidence from a Dynamic Student Survey}, series = {Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers}, journal = {Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers}, edition = {No. 14}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4945}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-49457}, pages = {41}, abstract = {We repeatedly elicit beliefs about the returns to study effort, in a large university course. A behavioral model of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and malleable beliefs predicts that the dynamics of beliefs mirrors the importance of exerting self-control, such that believed returns increase as the exam approaches, and drop post-exam. Exploiting variation in exam timing to control for common information shocks, we find this prediction confirmed: average believed study returns increase by about 20\% over the period before the exam, and drop by about the same amount afterwards. Additional analyses further support the hypothesized mechanism that beliefs serve as a means of self-control.}, language = {en} }