@techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {How Much Money is a Lot of Money? The Recovery Fund and the Battle over Rule of Law in Poland}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-42402}, pages = {3}, abstract = {On 7 September 2021, the European Commission announced that it will ask the European Court of Justice to impose financial penalties against Poland for not complying with the Court's order for interim measures. More specifically, Commissioner Reynders said that the request was for a fine €1 million for each day that the Disciplinary Chamber of the Polish Supreme Court would continue to operate. And while at first glance, a penalty of 1€ million a day sounds like a lot, Thu Nguyen argues in this policy position that this sum only shows how little harm the EU penalties usually do to national budgets - especially if compared to the leverage the Commission can yield with a completely new instrument: the withholding of funds under the Recovery and Resilience Facility.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GuttenbergNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Guttenberg, Lucas and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Nach der Wahl: Wie weiter mit der Rechtstaatlichkeit in der EU?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-42457}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Der Rechtsstaat ist in vielen Mitgliedstaaten der EU unter Druck. Insbesondere Polen und Ungarn stellen durch eine immer systematischere Aush{\"o}hlung rechtsstaatlicher Prinzipien den Grundkonsens der EU als Rechtsgemeinschaft zur Disposition. Mit dem Urteil des polnischen Verfassungstribunals vom 7. Oktober 2021 erreichte diese Entwicklung ihren bisherigen H{\"o}hepunkt. Dieser Policy Brief erkl{\"a}rt die Hintergr{\"u}nde des Konflikts, zeigt Handlungsm{\"o}glichkeiten f{\"u}r die Europ{\"a}ische Kommission auf und erl{\"a}utert, welche Rolle die n{\"a}chste Bundesregierung bei der Wahrung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit in der EU spielen kann.}, language = {de} } @techreport{NguyenRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and Redeker, Nils}, title = {Check yourself before you wreck yourself}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4018}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-40183}, pages = {5}, abstract = {Strengthening the EU's capacity to act in economic policy making has become a fashionable talking point on the European policy agenda. At the same time, there is little debate about the institutional preconditions to be able to live up to these ambitions. In this policy brief, Nils Redeker and Thu Nguyen argue that the combination of grand policy ambition and institutional neglect constitutes a dangerous mix. Without new financial tools and decision-making procedures, the agenda is bound to disappoint. The authors argue that the debate on EU economic sovereignty needs to start talking about real reforms or else stop raising false expectations.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The Commission is political: Time to act upon this truth in the run-up to 2024}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4025}, pages = {4}, year = {2021}, abstract = {How 'political' can and should the European Commission be? This question is a long-standing one. On the one hand, European integration demands more and more political and distributive choices to be taken at European level. On the other hand, there is the fear that a political Commission would undermine its own role as the neutral, objective guardian of the Treaties. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen revisits the concept of a 'political Commission' and argues for a reinforcement of its political character in the run-up to the 2024 European elections.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {A matter of principle: An infringement procedure against Germany}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4026}, pages = {3}, year = {2021}, abstract = {On 9 June 2020, the European Commission announced that it is bringing an infringement procedure against Germany because of the PSPP judgment of its Federal Constitutional Court. On 5 May 2020 the German Court had declared a ruling by the European Court of Justice ultra vires and therefore not legally binding on Germany. In this policy position, Thu Nguyen argues that the Commission is right to initiate an infringement procedure against Germany: It is a matter of principle and a signal that the Commission, as the guardian of the Treaties, will not accept breaches of EU Treaty obligations, no matter the member state or authority in breach of EU law.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The holy trinity of EU elections: Transnational lists, Spitzenkandidaten procedure and a stronger European Parliament}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-42506}, pages = {22}, abstract = {The next European Parliament elections in May 2024 are approaching faster than it might seem. In this Visions for Europe Policy Paper, Thu Nguyen takes a critical look at two ideas to reform the elections ahead of 2024 and assesses their potential to enhance EU democracy in light of the EU's institutional set-up: Transnational lists and the Spitzenkandidaten procedure. It is argued both could enhance the European dimension of the elections, but they are no silver bullets. Any such reforms should therefore be accompanied by a third component: a stronger role for the European Parliament.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenRedeker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and Redeker, Nils}, title = {How to make the marriage work: Wedding the Recovery and Resilience Facility and European Semester}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-42537}, pages = {8}, abstract = {A year into its existence, the Recovery and Resilience Facility finds itself closely wed to the European Semester. It is a difficult marriage, but it is a marriage made to last. Any debate on the future of the Semester will take place against the backdrop of the RRF experience. And any future fiscal capacity at the EU level will not come without a Semester-style reform leg. It is therefore crucial to make this marriage work. In this policy brief, Nils Redeker and Thu Nguyen argue that this requires three things: 1) scaling back recommendations under the regular Semester, 2) balancing out the asymmetric powers that the Commission now has over different member states, and 3) striking the right balance between flexibility and enforcement of agreed plans.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GuttenbergNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Guttenberg, Lucas and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {How to spend it right - A more democratic governance for the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-35594}, pages = {6}, abstract = {The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) will be the core of the EU's new Recovery Instrument to fight the economic fallout of the pandemic. Under the RRF, 310 billion euros in additional EU spending will be allocated by the European Commission to member states based on individual Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs). In this Policy Brief, we argue that the proposed governance to decide on the assessment of RRPs lacks democratic elements as parliaments are largely sidelined. This should be changed to ensure necessary political ownership at national and European level; to include a second pair of European eyes to prevent misspending; and to avoid a roll-back of EU democracy. Therefore, we propose that the European Parliament get a veto over the Commission decision assessing individual RRPs and allocating funds. National parliaments should also have a say in the adoption of the RRP of the respective member state.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Managing expectations - The German Council presidency}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-35669}, pages = {6}, abstract = {On 1 July 2020 Germany will take over the presidency of the Council of the EU. Major European issues such as the Commission's proposal for a Recovery Instrument, the EU multiannual financial framework, or the negotiations on the future UK-EU relationship will fall within its term. If expectations were high before corona that a member state with the political weight and capacities of Germany would be able to significantly advance the political agenda at EU level, such expectations are even more prevalent now. At the same time, the institution of Council presidency has lost much of its bite under the Treaty of Lisbon. Germany does not only find itself wedged between different institutional actors with a limited time frame to achieve political results. It is also faced with an overcrowded agenda and many practical limitations caused by the pandemic. This policy brief analyses and assesses the expectations as regards the German Council presidency, in particular by considering the institutional context in which it operates and the limitations imposed by the pandemic.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The EU's new rule of law mechanism-How it works and why the 'deal' did not weaken it}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37137}, pages = {6}, abstract = {After Hungary and Poland almost derailed the EU budgetary negotiations over rule of law conditionality, the EU found itself in a weeks-long game of chicken before the drama finally culminated in the European Council conclusions of December 2020. The conclusions were widely criticised for postponing the enforcement of the rule of law mechanism and for upsetting the EU's institutional balance. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen explains how the rule of law mechanism works and takes a more balanced approach: The rule of law mechanism was not weakened by the conclusions, nor did the European Council encroach upon the Commission's prerogatives in a meaningful way.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KoenigNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Koenig, Nicole and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Five takeaways from the German "Corona Presidency"}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-37166}, pages = {8}, abstract = {On 31 December 2020, Germany's rotating EU Council presidency will come to an end after a particularly difficult term. Corona burst upon an already crowded policy agenda, including the negotiation of the EU's next seven-year budget, rule of law conditionality and the finalization of the Brexit negotiations. On top of a packed agenda, the German presidency faced considerable institutional and corona-related constraints. In this Policy Brief, Nicole Koenig and Thu Nguyen look back at the German presidency and develop five key takeaways for the upcoming corona presidencies, notably Portugal (first half of 2021) and Slovenia (second half). The German presidency has shown that they should prepare for more corona crisis management,internal divisions and unexpected crises.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Differentiated Integration and Accountability in the European Union - An Analytical Framework}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36999}, pages = {24}, abstract = {Differentiation has become an established feature of European integration in the past decades, and a variety of forms of differentiated governance have been established either within the EU Treaties, by the EU Treaties or outside the EU legal framework. At the same time, differentiated integration poses particular questions about how to organise accountability in an EU in which different groups of member states participate in very different forms of integration. Bringing together the accountability and differentiation literature, the paper develops an analytical framework allowing for an indicator-based assessment of accountability mechanisms. By proposing an analytical framework with concrete indicators for the assessment of accountability in various differentiated integration formats, this paper closes a gap in the literature and opens new paths for the comparative analysis of accountability across various shades of European integration.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenHeimbach, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and Heimbach, Henriette}, title = {Time to unlock the potential of bi-parliamentarism - The Franco-German model}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-36899}, pages = {6}, abstract = {The inception of the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly in January 2019 marked an important step towards the institutionalization of Franco-German relations on a parliamentary level. The Assembly provides a forum for binational debate and democratic scrutiny, and has the potential to strengthen Franco-German cooperation and leadership at EU level by fostering practical compromises and solutions bilaterally before they are being brought to Brussels. The Assembly nevertheless falls short of its potential. In their policy brief, Henriette Heimbach and Thu Nguyen assess the Assembly's shortcomings and provide suggestions for improvement. Apart from enhancing the transparency of its work, the Assembly should focus on addressing concrete bilateral problems and channeling them into concrete demands. At the same time, the Assembly should act as coordination forum for Franco-German positions at EU level to foster common positions. The authors conclude that despite its shortcomings, the Franco-German Parliamentary Assembly can serve as a role model for other member states to establish and institutionalize similar forms of bi-parliamentarism.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {How to change what? A Reformer's Guide to the legal bases of the EU fiscal framework}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45256}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Between the deleterious effect of the Covid pandemic on public finances and the financial investments required to stem the growing climate emergency, the debate on reforming the EU fiscal framework has become ever more urgent. At the same time, there is no consensus on what reforms are needed even among those calling for them. A variety of proposals exists but it often remains unclear what legal changes they imply. This question is key for their implementation, however. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen provides an overview of the legal bases of the current EU fiscal framework to help inform the reform debate.}, language = {en} } @techreport{RedekerNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Redeker, Nils and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {If not now, when? The German government should seize the opportunity that the Conference on the Future of Europe provides}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45271}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Last week, the Conference on the Future of Europe was concluded. Now far-reaching reform proposals are on the table. However, there is a great risk of these proposals petering out. The Russian war of aggression shows how urgently the EU needs reforms. The German government should therefore seize the opportunity presented by the Conference. First, it should take its own European policy ambitions seriously and join forces with France to push for treaty changes. Second, it must find pragmatic steps in the short term to develop a constructive agenda from the Conference proposals, even below the threshold of treaty change.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The proof of the pudding. Imposing financial measures for rule of law breaches.}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45294}, pages = {9}, abstract = {The EU's rule of law toolbox is growing, not just in theory but also in practice. At the same time, the Russian war in Ukraine has made abundantly clear the importance of protecting rule of law and democracy also at home. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen maps the tools the EU has at its disposal to impose financial measures against member states that breach the rule of law. By illustrating the potential scale and scope of those instruments, she shows that the window of opportunity to leverage EU money against member states to enforce compliance with rule of law has never been bigger.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Time to be honest: The future will not be decided by the Conference on the Future of Europe}, pages = {3}, abstract = {The Conference on the Future of Europe will not be the place where the future of the EU will be decided. For that, there are too many obstacles standing in its way: First, it comes at the wrong time. Secondly, it is too short and its governance structures are too heavy. And lastly, it lacks the necessary support at member state level to bring about concrete policy changes. But it also does not have to. The future of EU democracy will be decided in national and European parliamentary elections. Instead of overpromising on the Conference, EU institutions and national governments should ensure that their results are translated into concrete action at EU level.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Institutional Corsets and the Question of Timing: How Much Damage Can the Hungarian Council Presidency Do?}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Hungary is set to take over the EU Council presidency in the second half of 2024. Given the state of the rule of law in the country, there are doubts whether Hungary will be able to successfully fulfill tis role. A debate on whether it should be blocked from taking over the presidency on 1 July 2024 is in full swing. In this Policy Position, Thu Nguyen analyses the institutional role of Council presidencies, and argues that the Hungarian presidency will not be able to do much damage considering both the institutional corset and the time period in which it will operate.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Warum sich die Europ{\"a}ische Union erweitern und reformieren muss}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Die Europ{\"a}ische Union muss sich erweitern, m{\"o}chte sie ihre unmittelbare Nachbarschaft stabilisieren und dem Einfluss Russlands in der Region vorbeugen. In dieser Policy Position argumentiert Thu Nguyen, dass jedoch sowohl k{\"u}nftige Mitgliedstaaten als auch die EU f{\"u}r die Erweiterung bereit sein m{\"u}ssen. Dazu braucht es Reformen, vor allem in drei Bereichen: Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Handlungsf{\"a}higkeit und EU-Haushalt.}, language = {de} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {European Political Community: From family photo to 'strategic intimacy'}, abstract = {On 6 October 2022, the inaugural meeting of the new 'European Political Community' (EPC) took place in Prague. Moving from a vague idea, suggested in May by French President Macron, into a real-time meeting with more than 40 European leaders in just a matter of months was a success exceeding early expectations for the EPC. But this very success means that the EPC has been inaugurated before it acquired a clear purpose, agenda or framework. This policy brief traces the evolution of the EPC and illustrates possible models for its future shape to ensure that the EPC will be able to achieve more than just bringing together leaders for yet another photo-op.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The Hungary Files: Untangling the political and economic knots}, abstract = {The battle over the rule of law in Hungary is coming to a head. Two separate but related rule of law procedures are currently on the Council's agenda, with 7.5 billion Euros in cohesion funds and 5.8 billion Euros in grants from the EU recovery instrument on the line for Hungary. Both procedures are currently stuck in a political limbo as member states, faced once again with Hungarian vetoes, cannot agree on a common course of action. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen untangles the two files and argues that the EU is in a strong negotiating position: The Hungarian government can, in the current economic climate, very ill-afford to lose the funds.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenvandenBrink, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and van den Brink, Martijn}, title = {An early Christmas Gift from Karlsruhe? The Bundesverfassungsgericht's NextGenerationEU Ruling}, abstract = {The 6 December ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the constitutional complaints against the EU's recovery instrument NextGenerationEU seemed to come as an early Christmas gift from Karlsruhe. This time, the German court avoided the head-on collision with the EU. At the same time, the ruling raises crucial questions about the future of EU fiscal integration. While it is not as constraining as some might have feared, it does not give card blanche for a more permanent EU fiscal capacity. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen and Martijn van den Brink analyse the judgment and its possible implications going forward.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LindnerNguyenHansum, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Lindner, Johannes and Nguyen, Thu and Hansum, Romy}, title = {What does it cost? Financial implications of the next enlargement}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Despite a broad consensus in the EU on the necessity of enlargement, it is far from a done deal. Especially the financial implications a Ukraine accession pose uncertainties. In our policy paper, Johannes Lindner, Thu Nguyen and Romy Hansum show that the next enlargement round would have less of an impact on the EU budget than is generally assumed. This is largely because the EU's multiannual financial framework (MFF) has inherent adaptation mechanisms to mitigate significant fluctuations. At the same time, we stress that is impossible to predict precisely what the EU's MFF, under which accession will happen, will look like as the rules and allocations are subject to political negotiations. Lastly, enlargement is not the only issue adding pressure on the EU budget in a Union that faces huge challenges.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenChamon, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Hoai-Thu and Chamon, Merijn}, title = {The ultra vires decision of the German Constitutional Court - Time to fight fire with fire?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-35242}, pages = {23}, abstract = {The German Constitutional Court's ruling on the ECB's PSPP put Europe in a turmoil. By declaring a ruling of the European Court of Justice ultra vires, and therefore not legally binding on Germany, the Bundesverfassungsgericht openly called into question the primacy of EU law and the authority of the ECJ. In this policy paper we argue that on these grounds there is good reason for the European Commission to bring infringement proceedings against Germany in order to, amongst others, protect the European legal order and emphasize the notion of equality of States in the EU.}, language = {en} } @techreport{JansenNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Jansen, Jannik and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Between Continuity and a Perforated 'Cordon Sanitaire' - On the 2024 European Elections}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Between 6-9 July 2024, the 720 members of the European Parliament were elected across 27 Member States. While the elections have not led to a landslide shift to the right, there is a notable consolidation of far-right parties at the European level. Still, the pro-European centre is holding firm and maintains a majority. In this Policy Brief, Jannik Jansen and Thu Nguyen argue that the results likely indicate by-and-large continuity in the European Parliament, including an ongoing shift to the right on contested issues due to a perforated 'cordon sanitaire'. But the election results had heavily disruptive consequences on the national level, which in France has triggered snap parliamentary elections. This will have pronounced impact on the balance of power in the (European) Council and on the EU as a whole.}, language = {en} }