@techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Time to be honest: The future will not be decided by the Conference on the Future of Europe}, pages = {3}, abstract = {The Conference on the Future of Europe will not be the place where the future of the EU will be decided. For that, there are too many obstacles standing in its way: First, it comes at the wrong time. Secondly, it is too short and its governance structures are too heavy. And lastly, it lacks the necessary support at member state level to bring about concrete policy changes. But it also does not have to. The future of EU democracy will be decided in national and European parliamentary elections. Instead of overpromising on the Conference, EU institutions and national governments should ensure that their results are translated into concrete action at EU level.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {How to change what? A Reformer's Guide to the legal bases of the EU fiscal framework}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45256}, pages = {9}, abstract = {Between the deleterious effect of the Covid pandemic on public finances and the financial investments required to stem the growing climate emergency, the debate on reforming the EU fiscal framework has become ever more urgent. At the same time, there is no consensus on what reforms are needed even among those calling for them. A variety of proposals exists but it often remains unclear what legal changes they imply. This question is key for their implementation, however. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen provides an overview of the legal bases of the current EU fiscal framework to help inform the reform debate.}, language = {en} } @techreport{RedekerNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Redeker, Nils and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {If not now, when? The German government should seize the opportunity that the Conference on the Future of Europe provides}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45271}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Last week, the Conference on the Future of Europe was concluded. Now far-reaching reform proposals are on the table. However, there is a great risk of these proposals petering out. The Russian war of aggression shows how urgently the EU needs reforms. The German government should therefore seize the opportunity presented by the Conference. First, it should take its own European policy ambitions seriously and join forces with France to push for treaty changes. Second, it must find pragmatic steps in the short term to develop a constructive agenda from the Conference proposals, even below the threshold of treaty change.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The proof of the pudding. Imposing financial measures for rule of law breaches.}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-45294}, pages = {9}, abstract = {The EU's rule of law toolbox is growing, not just in theory but also in practice. At the same time, the Russian war in Ukraine has made abundantly clear the importance of protecting rule of law and democracy also at home. In this Policy Brief, Thu Nguyen maps the tools the EU has at its disposal to impose financial measures against member states that breach the rule of law. By illustrating the potential scale and scope of those instruments, she shows that the window of opportunity to leverage EU money against member states to enforce compliance with rule of law has never been bigger.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {European Political Community: From family photo to 'strategic intimacy'}, abstract = {On 6 October 2022, the inaugural meeting of the new 'European Political Community' (EPC) took place in Prague. Moving from a vague idea, suggested in May by French President Macron, into a real-time meeting with more than 40 European leaders in just a matter of months was a success exceeding early expectations for the EPC. But this very success means that the EPC has been inaugurated before it acquired a clear purpose, agenda or framework. This policy brief traces the evolution of the EPC and illustrates possible models for its future shape to ensure that the EPC will be able to achieve more than just bringing together leaders for yet another photo-op.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {The Hungary Files: Untangling the political and economic knots}, abstract = {The battle over the rule of law in Hungary is coming to a head. Two separate but related rule of law procedures are currently on the Council's agenda, with 7.5 billion Euros in cohesion funds and 5.8 billion Euros in grants from the EU recovery instrument on the line for Hungary. Both procedures are currently stuck in a political limbo as member states, faced once again with Hungarian vetoes, cannot agree on a common course of action. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen untangles the two files and argues that the EU is in a strong negotiating position: The Hungarian government can, in the current economic climate, very ill-afford to lose the funds.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenvandenBrink, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and van den Brink, Martijn}, title = {An early Christmas Gift from Karlsruhe? The Bundesverfassungsgericht's NextGenerationEU Ruling}, abstract = {The 6 December ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the constitutional complaints against the EU's recovery instrument NextGenerationEU seemed to come as an early Christmas gift from Karlsruhe. This time, the German court avoided the head-on collision with the EU. At the same time, the ruling raises crucial questions about the future of EU fiscal integration. While it is not as constraining as some might have feared, it does not give card blanche for a more permanent EU fiscal capacity. In this policy brief, Thu Nguyen and Martijn van den Brink analyse the judgment and its possible implications going forward.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Institutional Corsets and the Question of Timing: How Much Damage Can the Hungarian Council Presidency Do?}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Hungary is set to take over the EU Council presidency in the second half of 2024. Given the state of the rule of law in the country, there are doubts whether Hungary will be able to successfully fulfill tis role. A debate on whether it should be blocked from taking over the presidency on 1 July 2024 is in full swing. In this Policy Position, Thu Nguyen analyses the institutional role of Council presidencies, and argues that the Hungarian presidency will not be able to do much damage considering both the institutional corset and the time period in which it will operate.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Warum sich die Europ{\"a}ische Union erweitern und reformieren muss}, pages = {3}, abstract = {Die Europ{\"a}ische Union muss sich erweitern, m{\"o}chte sie ihre unmittelbare Nachbarschaft stabilisieren und dem Einfluss Russlands in der Region vorbeugen. In dieser Policy Position argumentiert Thu Nguyen, dass jedoch sowohl k{\"u}nftige Mitgliedstaaten als auch die EU f{\"u}r die Erweiterung bereit sein m{\"u}ssen. Dazu braucht es Reformen, vor allem in drei Bereichen: Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Handlungsf{\"a}higkeit und EU-Haushalt.}, language = {de} } @techreport{LindnerNguyenHansum, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Lindner, Johannes and Nguyen, Thu and Hansum, Romy}, title = {What does it cost? Financial implications of the next enlargement}, pages = {10}, abstract = {Despite a broad consensus in the EU on the necessity of enlargement, it is far from a done deal. Especially the financial implications a Ukraine accession pose uncertainties. In our policy paper, Johannes Lindner, Thu Nguyen and Romy Hansum show that the next enlargement round would have less of an impact on the EU budget than is generally assumed. This is largely because the EU's multiannual financial framework (MFF) has inherent adaptation mechanisms to mitigate significant fluctuations. At the same time, we stress that is impossible to predict precisely what the EU's MFF, under which accession will happen, will look like as the rules and allocations are subject to political negotiations. Lastly, enlargement is not the only issue adding pressure on the EU budget in a Union that faces huge challenges.}, language = {en} } @techreport{JansenNguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Jansen, Jannik and Nguyen, Thu}, title = {Between Continuity and a Perforated 'Cordon Sanitaire' - On the 2024 European Elections}, pages = {6}, abstract = {Between 6-9 July 2024, the 720 members of the European Parliament were elected across 27 Member States. While the elections have not led to a landslide shift to the right, there is a notable consolidation of far-right parties at the European level. Still, the pro-European centre is holding firm and maintains a majority. In this Policy Brief, Jannik Jansen and Thu Nguyen argue that the results likely indicate by-and-large continuity in the European Parliament, including an ongoing shift to the right on contested issues due to a perforated 'cordon sanitaire'. But the election results had heavily disruptive consequences on the national level, which in France has triggered snap parliamentary elections. This will have pronounced impact on the balance of power in the (European) Council and on the EU as a whole.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Nguyen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu}, title = {What the EU should do about Viktor Orb{\´a}n}, pages = {3}, abstract = {The European Council summit on March 20 ended, like the one two weeks earlier, with two conclusions: one adopted by all 27 member states and another on Ukraine, approved by 26 leaders without Hungary to bypass Viktor Orb{\´a}n's veto. While in this case only with symbolic consequences, the pro-Russian, authoritarian-leaning government in Budapest regularly undermines the EU's ability to act. This is not a new problem. But in a radically changed global landscape, the EU must finally address it. It should do so in three steps: withholding EU funds, politically isolating Hungary, and suspending its voting rights.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KarpensteinNguyenSpieker, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Karpenstein, Ulrich and Nguyen, Thu and Spieker, Luke Dimitrios}, title = {A Matter of Solidarity: A New Approach to Revive Article 7 TEU Against Hungary}, pages = {13}, abstract = {Viktor Orbán increasingly undermines the EU's collective interests. The Hungarian government systematically uses its veto powers to block Ukrainian military aid and accession negotiations and to dilute sanctions against Russia. An Article 7 TEU procedure launched against Hungary based on breaches of the rule of law has proven to be a dead end. Given the existential geopolitical threats the EU is facing, and the urgency with which it needs to support Ukraine, the time is nigh for a new approach. In this joint policy brief, Ulrich Karpenstein, Thu Nguyen, and Luke Dimitrios Spieker argue that rather than focusing on democracy, the rule of law, and human rights, which runs a high risk of being opposed by certain Member States, a new Article 7 TEU procedure should be initiated against Hungary based on a breach of solidarity in the Common Foreign and Security Policy.}, language = {en} } @techreport{NguyenJansen, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Nguyen, Thu and Jansen, Jannik}, title = {If Europe keeps placating its own far right, how can it possibly stand up to Trump?}, pages = {4}, abstract = {European leaders have been pulled to the right on migration, the climate crisis and Israel. Their weakness is undermining the democratic principles on which the EU was built.}, language = {en} }