@incollection{ShikanoMunzertSchuebeletal., author = {Shikano, Susumu and Munzert, Simon and Sch{\"u}bel, Thomas and Herrmann, Michael and Selb, Peter}, title = {Eine empirische Sch{\"a}tzmethode f{\"u}r Valenz-Issues auf der Basis der Kandidatenbeurteilung am Beispiel der Konstanzer Oberb{\"u}rgermeisterwahl 2012}, series = {Jahrbuch f{\"u}r Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie}, booktitle = {Jahrbuch f{\"u}r Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie}, editor = {Linhart, Eric and Kittel, Bernhard and B{\"a}chtiger, Andr{\´e}}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-05007-8}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-658-05008-5_4}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {113 -- 131}, abstract = {Bei der Entwicklung der r{\"a}umlichen Modelle des Parteienwettbewerbs spielt die Valenz eine wichtige Rolle. Trotz der theoretischen Relevanz bleibt die Mess- und Sch{\"a}tzmethode der Valenz unterentwickelt. Angesichts dieser Forschungsl{\"u}cke schl{\"a}gt dieser Beitrag ein statistisches Modell vor, das die gleichzeitige Sch{\"a}tzung der Kandidatenpositionen und der Valenz erm{\"o}glicht. Ein wichtiger Vorzug dieses Modells liegt darin, dass man nur die Kandidatenbeurteilungen per Skalometer ben{\"o}tigt, der in den meisten Umfragedaten verf{\"u}gbar ist. Dieses Modell wird auf Daten angewendet, die in Rahmen der Konstanzer Oberb{\"u}rgermeisterwahl 2012 erhoben wurden.}, language = {de} } @article{SelbHerrmannMunzertetal., author = {Selb, Peter and Herrmann, Michael and Munzert, Simon and Sch{\"u}bel, Thomas and Shikano, Susumu}, title = {Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls}, series = {International Journal of Forecasting}, volume = {29}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001}, pages = {541 -- 547}, abstract = {We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters' candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election returns, and redistributing the votes for eliminated competitors according to their supporters' lower-order preferences among the viable alternatives in round two. We argue that the approach is likely to outperform standard pre-election surveys, due to its better coverage and reduced measurement error, and the possibility of correcting for sample selection. We set out the practical details of the method and demonstrate its usefulness by employing a recent German mayoral election as an empirical case. Thirteen candidates were competing in the first round, while there were six candidates in the decisive second round. The runoff result was forecast two weeks in advance with an average absolute error of less than one percentage point.}, language = {en} }