@article{SelbHerrmannMunzertetal., author = {Selb, Peter and Herrmann, Michael and Munzert, Simon and Sch{\"u}bel, Thomas and Shikano, Susumu}, title = {Forecasting runoff elections using candidate evaluations from first round exit polls}, series = {International Journal of Forecasting}, volume = {29}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.02.001}, pages = {541 -- 547}, abstract = {We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters' candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election returns, and redistributing the votes for eliminated competitors according to their supporters' lower-order preferences among the viable alternatives in round two. We argue that the approach is likely to outperform standard pre-election surveys, due to its better coverage and reduced measurement error, and the possibility of correcting for sample selection. We set out the practical details of the method and demonstrate its usefulness by employing a recent German mayoral election as an empirical case. Thirteen candidates were competing in the first round, while there were six candidates in the decisive second round. The runoff result was forecast two weeks in advance with an average absolute error of less than one percentage point.}, language = {en} } @article{SelbMunzert, author = {Selb, Peter and Munzert, Simon}, title = {Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys}, series = {Electoral Studies}, volume = {32}, journal = {Electoral Studies}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004}, pages = {186 -- 196}, abstract = {Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they either focus on a single component, or fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in election surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 49 vote validation studies from six countries, and employ Bayesian meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics such as actual voter turnout and survey response rates differentially affect the components of turnout bias. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.}, language = {en} }