@techreport{SchmidCoroamăDumbravăetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Schmid, Nicolas and Coroamă, Vlad C. and Dumbravă, Oana and Eichler, Martin and Reisser, Moritz and Kaack, Lynn H. and Axenbeck, Janna and J{\"u}rg, F{\"u}ssler}, title = {Carbon leakage in AI-driven data center growth? An assessment of drivers and barriers to the localization of data center operations and investments with respect to carbon pricing policies}, number = {68/2025}, publisher = {German Environment Agency}, pages = {64}, abstract = {This study offers a comprehensive first assessment of the global carbon leakage potential associated with AI-driven data center operation and investment. The focus is on carbon leakage from costs imposed by emission trading systems (ETS) on data center electricity consumption. The study estimates AI's current and near-future electricity consumption and evaluates the technological feasibility as well as plausibility of shifting compute loads. Additionally, it maps global compute capacity against carbon intensities and the presence of ETS.}, language = {en} }