@article{FussFlachslandKochetal., author = {Fuss, Sabine and Flachsland, Christian and Koch, Nicolas and Kornek, Ulrike and Knopf, Brigitte and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {A Framework for Assessing the Performance of Cap-and-Trade Systems: Insights from the European Union Emissions Trading System}, series = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy}, volume = {12}, journal = {Review of Environmental Economics and Policy}, number = {2}, issn = {1750-6816}, doi = {10.1093/reep/rey010}, pages = {220 -- 241}, abstract = {The performance of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading System (ETS) and other cap-and-trade schemes has been under scrutiny because of their inability to create a stable price for greenhouse gas emissions. This article seeks to inform the often confusing debate about the economic performance of cap-and-trade systems over time, with a focus on the EU ETS. Based on a simple intertemporal framework of emissions trading and a review of the literature, we show that different frameworks and notions of efficiency result in both different assessments of performance and different recommended strategies for improving performance. More specifically, we argue that if cap-and-trade systems have temporal flexibility (i.e., they include banking and borrowing of emissions allowances), it can be highly misleading to base the economic assessment on short-term efficiency. We seek to draw attention to the concept of long-term economic performance, which takes into account the intertemporal nature of emissions trading systems. In particular, we identify market and government distortions (e.g., myopia, lack of policy credibility, excessive discounting) that may depress allowance prices and hamper intertemporal efficiency. We then examine whether the recently adopted Market Stability Reserve and the alternative price collar are likely to address these distortions.}, language = {en} } @article{EdenhoferKnopfBurghausetal., author = {Edenhofer, Ottmar and Knopf, Brigitte and Burghaus, Kerstin and Flachsland, Christian and Jakob, Michael and Koch, Nicolas}, title = {Shifting Paradigms in Carbon Pricing}, series = {Intereconomics}, volume = {53}, journal = {Intereconomics}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1007/s10272-018-0735-6}, pages = {135 -- 140}, abstract = {Carbon pricing is essential to achieve a reduction in global CO2 emissions. A carbon price can either be set directly via a carbon tax (price control) or be achieved through a cap-and-trade system (quantity control). While there has been much debate about the relative merits of each approach, cap-and-trade systems have been favoured in the political arena. In principle, they offer the most straightforward way to achieve a country's emission reduction target by simply setting the cap at the remaining emission budget. Existing emissions trading schemes (ETSs) can be found in Europe, California and Qu{\´e}bec, for example.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KalkuhlRoolfsEdenhoferetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Roolfs, Christina and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Haywood, Luke and Heinemann, Maik and Bekk, Anke and Flachsland, Christian and George, Jan and Held, Anne and aus dem Moore, Nils and Luderer, Gunnar and Koch, Nicolas and Nikodinoska, Dragana and Pahle, Michael and Schill, Wolf-Peter and Amberg, Maximilian and Bergmann, Tobias and Meyer, Henrika}, title = {Reformoptionen f{\"u}r ein nachhaltiges Steuer- und Abgabensystem. Wie Lenkungssteuern effektiv und gerecht f{\"u}r den Klima- und Umweltschutz ausgestaltet werden k{\"o}nnen. Ein Ariadne-Kurzdossier.}, pages = {23}, language = {de} } @techreport{KhannaBaiocchiCallaghanetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Khanna, Tarun and Baiocchi, Giovanni and Callaghan, Max W. and Creutzig, Felix and Bogdan Guias, Horia and Haddaway, Neal and Hirth, Lion and Javaid, Aneeque and Koch, Nicolas and Laukemper, Sonja and Loeschel, Andreas and Del Mar Zamora, Maria and Minx, Jan C.}, title = {Reducing carbon emissions of households through monetary incentives and behavioral interventions: a meta-analysis}, doi = {10.21203/rs.3.rs-124386/v1}, abstract = {Despite the importance of evaluating all mitigation options so as to inform policy decisions addressing climate change, a systematic analysis of household-scale interventions to reduce carbon emissions is missing. Here, we address this gap through a state-of-the-art machine-learning assisted meta-analysis to comparatively assess the effectiveness of a range of monetary and behavioral interventions in energy demand of residential buildings. We identify 122 studies and extract 360 effect sizes representing trials on 1.2 million households in 25 countries. We find that all the studied interventions reduce energy consumption of households. Our meta-regression evidences that monetary incentives are on an average more effective than behavioral interventions, but deploying the right combinations of interventions together can increase overall effectiveness. We estimate global cumulative emissions reduction of 8.64 Gt CO2 by 2040, though deploying the most effective packages and interventions could result in greater reduction. While modest, this potential should be viewed in conjunction with the need for de-risking mitigation with energy demand reductions and realizing substantial co-benefits. }, language = {de} } @techreport{EdmondsonFlachslandausdemMooreetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Edmondson, Duncan and Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes and Levi, Sebastian}, title = {Assessing Climate Policy Instrument Pathways: An Application to the German Light Duty Vehicle Sector}, publisher = {Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne}, address = {Potsdam}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-4713}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-47130}, pages = {138}, language = {en} } @techreport{ArlinghausKoch, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Arlinghaus, Johanna and Koch, Nicolas}, title = {The welfare impact of using second-best uniform taxes to address traffic congestion}, publisher = {SSRN}, doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4523285}, pages = {24}, abstract = {This paper uses a novel GPS-coded dataset for more than three million car trips in the four largest German cities to measure the efficiency losses from using uniform fuel taxes as a second-best optimal tax to reduce traffic congestion. We estimate the short-run price elasticity of vehicle-kilometres travelled (VKT) across different hours of the day from a panel gravity equation. Identification of the price elasticity relies on comparing VKT changes between granular trip origin and destination pairs within each city. We find that the VKT price elasticity differs strongly across trips taken at different hours of the day, and that this elasticity correlates with contributions to the congestion externality. Using a policy simulation, we show that 52\% of the deadweight loss of the congestion externality remains after levying a uniform fuel tax.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LeviWolfFlachslandetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Levi, Sebastian and Wolf, Ingo and Flachsland, Christian and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Edmondson, Duncan}, title = {Klimaschutz und Verkehr: Zielerreichung nur mit unbequemen Maßnahmen m{\"o}glich. Ariadne-Analyse}, pages = {1-42}, abstract = {Die Klimaschutzziele f{\"u}r das Jahr 2030 sind im Verkehrssektor nur mit starken zus{\"a}tzlichen Treibhausgasreduktionen erreichbar. Die beschlossenen Maßnahmen k{\"o}nnen laut gegenw{\"a}rtigen Projektionen nur einen Bruchteil jener Emissionen reduzieren, welche f{\"u}r die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele im Verkehrssektor notwendig w{\"a}ren. Um die politische Umsetzbarkeit zus{\"a}tzlicher Klimaschutzmaßnahmen zu er{\"o}rtern, analysieren wir die Emissionsminderungswirkung und die Bev{\"o}lkerungsakzeptanz von 14 m{\"o}glichen Maßnahmen, basierend auf Drittstudien und eigenen Erhebungen. Wir zeigen, dass die wirkungsst{\"a}rksten Maßnahmen tendenziell eine geringe Zustimmung in der Bev{\"o}lkerung erfahren, wobei die Lastenverteilung keinen sichtbaren Einfluss auf die Bev{\"o}lkerungsakzeptanz hat. Maßnahmen, die in der Bev{\"o}lkerung mehrheitlich unterst{\"u}tzt werden, f{\"u}hren nach gegenw{\"a}rtigen Projektionen nur zu geringen Treibhausgasreduktionen, so dass die Erreichung der Klimaziele 2030 ohne kontroverse Maßnahmen wie h{\"o}here CO2-Preise oder einer fl{\"a}chendeckenden Maut unwahrscheinlich ist. Um die Bef{\"u}rwortung von gegenw{\"a}rtig kontroversen Maßnahmen zu erh{\"o}hen, ist es notwendig, sichtbare R{\"u}ckverteilungsmechanismen zu etablieren, Maßnahmen durch gruppenspezifische Kommunikation zu begleiten und die Einf{\"u}hrung von Politikinstrumenten strategisch zu sequenzieren.}, language = {de} } @article{KhannaBaiocchiCallaghanetal., author = {Khanna, Tarun and Baiocchi, Giovanni and Callaghan, Max and Creutzig, Felix and Guias, Horia and Haddaway, Neal R. and Hirth, Lion and Javaid, Aneeque and Koch, Nicolas and Laukemper, Sonja and L{\"o}schel, Andreas and del Mar Zamora Dominguez, Maria and Minx, Jan C.}, title = {A multi-country meta-analysis on the role of behavioural change in reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions in residential buildings}, series = {Nature Energy}, volume = {6}, journal = {Nature Energy}, doi = {10.1038/s41560-021-00866-x}, pages = {925 -- 932}, abstract = {Despite the importance of evaluating all mitigation options to inform policy decisions addressing climate change, a comprehensive analysis of household-scale interventions and their emissions reduction potential is missing. Here, we address this gap for interventions aimed at changing individual households' use of existing equipment, such as monetary incentives or feedback. We have performed a machine learning-assisted systematic review and meta-analysis to comparatively assess the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing energy demand in residential buildings. We extracted 360 individual effect sizes from 122 studies representing trials in 25 countries. Our meta-regression confirms that both monetary and non-monetary interventions reduce the energy consumption of households, but monetary incentives, of the sizes reported in the literature, tend to show on average a more pronounced effect. Deploying the right combinations of interventions increases the overall effectiveness. We have estimated a global carbon emissions reduction potential of 0.35 GtCO2 yr-1, although deploying the most effective packages of interventions could result in greater reduction. While modest, this potential should be viewed in conjunction with the need for de-risking mitigation pathways with energy-demand reductions.}, language = {en} } @techreport{EdmondsonFlachslandausdemMooreetal., type = {Working Paper}, author = {Edmondson, Duncan and Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes and Levi, Sebastian}, title = {Bewertung klimapolitischer Instrumentenmix-Pfade - Eine Anwendung auf leichte Nutzfahrzeuge in Deutschland}, publisher = {Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne}, address = {Potsdam}, pages = {156}, language = {de} } @article{EdmondsonFlachslandausdemMooreetal., author = {Edmondson, Duncan and Flachsland, Christian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Koch, Nicolas and Koller, Florian and Gruhl, Henri and Brehm, Johannes}, title = {Anticipatory climate policy mix pathways: a framework for ex-ante construction and assessment applied to the road transport sector}, series = {Climate Policy}, journal = {Climate Policy}, issn = {1469-3062}, doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2397440}, language = {en} } @article{DoebbelingHildebrandtMierschKhannaetal., author = {D{\"o}bbeling-Hildebrandt, Niklas and Miersch, Klaas and Khanna, Tarun M. and Bachelet, Marion and Bruns, Stephan B. and Callaghan, Max and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Flachsland, Christian and Forster, Piers M. and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Koch, Nicolas and Lamb, William F. and Ohlendorf, Nils and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Minx, Jan C.}, title = {Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {15}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-48512-w}, abstract = {Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between -5\% to -21\% across the schemes (-4\% to -15\% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of "what works" and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy.}, language = {en} } @article{AmbergausdemMooreBekketal., author = {Amberg, Maximilian and aus dem Moore, Nils and Bekk, Anke and Bergmann, Tobias and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Flachsland, Christian and George, Jan and Haywood, Luke and Heinemann, Maik and Held, Anne and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Kellner, Maximilian and Koch, Nicolas and Luderer, Gunnar and Meyer, Henrika and Nikodinoska, Dragana and Pahle, Michael and Roolfs, Christina and Schill, Wolf-Peter}, title = {Reformoptionen f{\"u}r ein nachhaltiges Steuer- und Abgabensystem. Wie Lenkungssteuern effektiv und gerecht f{\"u}r den Klima- und Umweltschutz ausgestaltet werden k{\"o}nnen}, series = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, volume = {23}, journal = {Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1515/pwp-2021-0051}, pages = {165 -- 199}, abstract = {Steuern und Abgaben auf Produkte oder Verbrauch mit gesellschaftlichen Folgekosten (externe Kosten) - sogenannte Pigou- oder Lenkungssteuern - sind ein gesellschaftliches „Win-Win-Instrument". Sie verbessern die Wohlfahrt und sch{\"u}tzen gleichzeitig die Umwelt und das Klima. Dies wird erreicht, indem umweltsch{\"a}digende Aktivit{\"a}ten einen Preis bekommen, der m{\"o}glichst exakt der H{\"o}he des Schadens entspricht. Eine konsequente Bepreisung der externen Kosten nach diesem Prinzip k{\"o}nnte in Deutschland erhebliche zus{\"a}tzliche Einnahmen erbringen: Basierend auf bisherigen Studien zu externen Kosten w{\"a}ren zus{\"a}tzliche Einnahmen in der Gr{\"o}ßenordnung von 348 bis 564 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr (44 bis 71 Prozent der gesamten Steuereinnahmen) m{\"o}glich. Die Autoren warnen allerdings, dass die Bezifferung der externen Kosten mit erheblichen Unsicherheiten verbunden ist. Damit Lenkungssteuern und -abgaben ihre positiven Lenkungs- und Wohlstandseffekte voll entfalten k{\"o}nnen, seien zudem institutionelle Reformen notwendig.}, language = {de} }