@book{MunzertRubbaMeissneretal., author = {Munzert, Simon and Rubba, Christian and Meißner, Peter and Nyhuis, Dominic}, title = {Automated Data Collection with R: A Practical Guide to Web Scraping and Text Mining}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons}, address = {Chichester}, isbn = {978-1-118-83481-7}, doi = {10.1002/9781118834732}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {474}, abstract = {A hands on guide to web scraping and text mining for both beginners and experienced users of R Introduces fundamental concepts of the main architecture of the web and databases and covers HTTP, HTML, XML, JSON, SQL. Provides basic techniques to query web documents and data sets (XPath and regular expressions). An extensive set of exercises are presented to guide the reader through each technique. Explores both supervised and unsupervised techniques as well as advanced techniques such as data scraping and text management. Case studies are featured throughout along with examples for each technique presented. R code and solutions to exercises featured in the book are provided on a supporting website.}, language = {en} } @article{MunzertJankinal, author = {Munzert, Simon and Jankin, Slava and al., et}, title = {The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate}, series = {The Lancet}, volume = {394}, journal = {The Lancet}, number = {10211}, doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6}, pages = {1836 -- 1878}, abstract = {The Lancet Countdown is an international, multidisciplinary collaboration, dedicated to monitoring the evolving health profile of climate change, and providing an independent assessment of the delivery of commitments made by governments worldwide under the Paris Agreement.}, language = {en} } @article{StoetzerNeunhoefferGschwendetal., author = {St{\"o}tzer, Lukas F. and Neunhoeffer, Marcel and Gschwend, Thomas and Munzert, Simon and Sternberg, Sebastian}, title = {Forecasting Elections in Multiparty Systems: A Bayesian Approach Combining Polls and Fundamentals}, series = {Political Analysis}, volume = {27}, journal = {Political Analysis}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.49}, pages = {255 -- 262}, abstract = {We offer a dynamic Bayesian forecasting model for multiparty elections. It combines data from published pre-election public opinion polls with information from fundamentals-based forecasting models. The model takes care of the multiparty nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of other quantities of interest, such as the probability of a plurality of votes for a party or the majority for certain coalitions in parliament. We present results from two ex ante forecasts of elections that took place in 2017 and are able to show that the model outperforms fundamentals-based forecasting models in terms of accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty. Provided that historical and current polling data are available, the model can be applied to any multiparty setting.}, language = {en} } @article{SelbMunzert, author = {Selb, Peter and Munzert, Simon}, title = {Examining a Most Likely Case for Strong Campaign Effects: Hitler's Speeches and the Rise of the Nazi Party, 1927-1933}, series = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {112}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, number = {4}, doi = {10.1017/S0003055418000424}, pages = {1050 -- 1066}, abstract = {Hitler's rise to power amidst an unprecedented propaganda campaign initiated scholarly interest in campaign effects. To the surprise of many, empirical studies often found minimal effects. The predominant focus of early work was on U.S. elections, though. Nazi propaganda as the archetypal and, in many ways, most likely case for strong effects has rarely been studied. We collect extensive data about Hitler's speeches and gauge their impact on voter support at five national elections preceding the dictatorship. We use a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach to estimate effects in the face of potential confounding due to the deliberate scheduling of events. Our findings suggest that Hitler's speeches, while rationally targeted, had a negligible impact on the Nazis' electoral fortunes. Only the 1932 presidential runoff, an election preceded by an extraordinarily short, intense, and one-sided campaign, yielded positive effects. This study questions the importance of charismatic leaders for the success of populist movements.}, language = {en} } @article{GoebelMunzert, author = {G{\"o}bel, Sascha and Munzert, Simon}, title = {Political Advertising on the Wikipedia Marketplace of Information}, series = {Social Science Computer Review}, volume = {36}, journal = {Social Science Computer Review}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1177/0894439317703579}, pages = {157 -- 175}, abstract = {We point to a popular yet underresearched platform of political information, the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Considering the supply side of the marketplace, we argue that personal biographies on the platform are an attractive medium for politicians to enhance their appearance. We trace changes to biographies coming from the parliament using data that cover the entire edit histories for biographies on all German members of parliament for the three last legislative periods. Our findings show editing of personal biographies to be a persistent phenomenon. Moreover, type, timing, and driving factors of editing behavior highlight the importance politicians' attribute to Wikipedia for pursuing reelection. Our results speak to the domains of political professionalization, voting behavior, and the general measurement of communicative patterns.}, language = {en} } @article{MunzertStoetzerGschwendetal., author = {Munzert, Simon and St{\"o}tzer, Lukas F. and Gschwend, Thomas and Neunhoeffer, Marcel and Sternberg, Sebastian}, title = {Zweitstimme.org. Ein strukturell-dynamisches Vorhersagemodell f{\"u}r Bundestagswahlen.}, series = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, volume = {58}, journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, number = {3}, issn = {0032-3470 (print); 1862-2860 (online)}, doi = {10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-418}, pages = {418 -- 441}, abstract = {We present results of an ex-ante forecast of party-specific vote shares at the German Federal Election 2017. To that end, we combine data from published trial heat polls with structural information. The model takes care of the multi-party nature of the setting and allows making statements about the probability of certain events, such as the plurality of votes for a party or the majority for coalition options in parliament. The forecasts of our model are continuously being updated on the platform zweitstimme.org. The value of our approach goes beyond the realms of academia: We equip journalists, political pundits, and ordinary citizens with information that can help make sense of the parties' latent support and ultimately make voting decisions better informed.}, language = {de} } @article{Munzert, author = {Munzert, Simon}, title = {Forecasting elections at the constituency level: A correction-combination procedure}, series = {International Journal of Forecasting}, volume = {33}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.12.001}, pages = {467 -- 481}, abstract = {Scholarly efforts to forecast parliamentary elections have targeted the national level predominantly, disregarding the outcomes of constituency races. In doing so, they have frequently failed to account for systematic bias in the seats-votes curve, and been unable to provide candidates and campaign strategists with constituency-level information. On the other hand, existing accounts of constituency-level election forecasting suffer from data sparsity, leading to a lack of precision. This paper proposes a correction-combination procedure that allows for the correction of individual constituency-level forecast models for election-invariant bias, then combines these models based on their past performances. I demonstrate the use of this procedure through out-of-sample forecasts of 299 district races at the 2013 German federal election.}, language = {en} } @article{MunzertSelb, author = {Munzert, Simon and Selb, Peter}, title = {Measuring Political Knowledge in Web-Based Surveys: An Experimental Validation of Visual Versus Verbal Instruments}, series = {Social Science Computer Review}, volume = {25}, journal = {Social Science Computer Review}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1177/0894439315616325}, pages = {167 -- 183}, abstract = {Does the opportunity to deliver visual instead of verbal stimuli of political knowledge to respondents in web-based surveys make a difference in terms of data quality? For instance, does the presentation of visual knowledge items reduce cheating, that is, looking up the answer via the Web? And do visual and verbal stimuli capture the same underlying construct? To test whether the use of visuals to measure political knowledge effectively makes a difference, we administer a question form experiment in an online survey of the German Longitudinal Election Study. Respondents are randomly assigned to one of two question formats—visual or verbal—and are asked to solve a set of eight questions on political leaders and their offices. The instruments are validated based on nonparametric item response theory and analyses of response latency. While there is no clear evidence for cheating behavior under either of the conditions, both instruments form strong knowledge scales. Results from a regression analysis indicate that the scales provide measures of closely related but not identical concepts.}, language = {en} } @article{SelbMunzert, author = {Selb, Peter and Munzert, Simon}, title = {Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results}, series = {German Politics}, volume = {25}, journal = {German Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1080/09644008.2015.1121454}, pages = {73 -- 83}, abstract = {This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios.}, language = {en} } @article{HerrmannMunzertSelb, author = {Herrmann, Michael and Munzert, Simon and Selb, Peter}, title = {Determining the effect of strategic voting on election results}, series = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A)}, volume = {179}, journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A)}, number = {2}, doi = {10.1111/rssa.12130}, pages = {583 -- 605}, abstract = {Speculations about whether strategic voting made a difference to the outcome of an election regularly whip up the passions of pundits, party strategists, electoral reformers and scholars alike. Yet, research on strategic voting's political effect has been hampered by the scarcity of data on district level party preferences. We propose the use of Bayesian small area estimation to predict district level preferences from just a handful of survey responses per district and comparing these predictions against election results to estimate how many voters switched sides in each district. We apply the approach to estimate how many seats changed hands as a result of strategic voting at the 1997 and 2001 UK general elections. Despite similar rates of strategic voting in both elections, the number of seats that were affected was markedly greater in 1997. Interestingly, the Liberal Democrats turn out to win the most seats because of strategic voting. We also estimate how many votes went in the 'wrong' direction—away from otherwise viable candidates. We validate our results by using journalistic sources and compare them with previous published estimates.}, language = {en} }