@article{LandwehrLeininger, author = {Landwehr, Claudia and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Instrumental or procedural democrats? The evolution of procedural preferences after democratization}, series = {Political Research Exchange}, journal = {Political Research Exchange}, number = {1(1)}, issn = {2474-736X}, doi = {10.1080/2474736X.2019.1654838}, pages = {1 -- 19}, abstract = {This paper addresses instrumentalist attitudes to democracy - attitudes according to which democracy is not valued for itself, but accepted only as a means to specific policy goals. Pippa Norris has argued that in the process of democratic consolidation, such instrumentalist conceptions of democracy are replaced with proceduralist ones, leading to an enlightened understanding of democracy. We use the unique case of German reunification to show that this process takes at least a generation to complete. Based on data from a novel battery of items fielded via the German GESIS panel, we show an East-West divide in democratic instrumentalism, which, however, is smaller among younger generations. While our findings do confirm Norris' thesis that growing democratic experience leads to a shift from instrumental to procedural understandings of democracy, we also show that instrumental democrats still make up a sizeable portion of the citizenry that might withdraw support if dissatisfied.}, language = {en} } @article{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum}, series = {Politics and Governance}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, number = {7(2)}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17169/refubium-2821}, pages = {306 -- 333}, abstract = {Referendums provide citizens with more control over policy. At the same time, they often entail choices over highly complex policies and are politicised along partisan lines, suggesting that partisan rather than policy considerations will guide voters' choices. I look to the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum, which was particularly complex and polarised, as an opportunity to test for mechanisms of government accountability in a referendum. Using a national survey of voters, I show that the more negative a respondent's evaluation of the state of the economy, the lower their likelihood to vote 'yes' on the government's reform proposal. This relationship is remarkably strong: an average respondent with a very positive evaluation of the state of the economy has an 88\% probability of supporting the government's reform proposal compared to only 12\% for a respondent with a very negative evaluation. The fact that economic evaluations are a strong determinant of vote choice provides evidence for the existence of an economic vote in a referendum. This further suggests that voters may treat referendums as a sort of second-order election.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Eine l{\"a}nderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017}, series = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, number = {58(3)}, issn = {0032-3470}, doi = {10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-407}, pages = {407 -- 417}, abstract = {When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag) election results in the German states (L{\"a}nder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effects model provides our estimates. L{\"a}nder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative.}, language = {de} } @article{LeiningerMurrStoetzeretal., author = {Leininger, Arndt and Murr, Andreas E. and St{\"o}tzer, Lukas and Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {Citizen forecasting in a mixed electoral system. The 2021 German federal election as a test case.}, series = {International Journal of Forecasting}, journal = {International Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {0169-2070}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.03.007}, abstract = {Existing studies show that aggregating citizens' expectations about who will win can predict election outcomes in a majoritarian system. But can so-called citizen forecasting also successfully predict outcomes in mixed-member systems, where constituency results are less important? The existing evidence is mixed and limited in scope. We conducted, therefore, a citizen forecast of the 2021 German federal election by administering an original survey asking citizens who they thought would win in their constituency, what share of the vote each candidate would win in their constituency, and what share of the vote each party would win nationally. Citizens predicted constituency winners and vote shares more accurately than several benchmarks. However, our citizen forecast was based on a non-representative sample from an online-access panel. We conclude that citizen forecasting provides a simple and inexpensive way to predict the various relevant outcomes in mixed-member elections.}, language = {en} } @incollection{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Forecasting}, series = {Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft}, booktitle = {Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft}, publisher = {Springer VS}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-16937-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-658-16937-4_36-1}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {1 -- 20}, abstract = {Prognosen stellen in der Politikwissenschaft ein zwar noch kleines, aber stetig wachsendes Forschungsfeld dar, welches in verschiedenen Teilbereichen der Disziplin Anwendung findet. Gemeint sind hiermit statistische Modelle, mit denen explizit politikwissenschaftlich relevante Ph{\"a}nomene vor ihrem Eintreten vorhergesagt werden. Dabei folgen sie den wissenschaftlichen Leitlinien der intersubjektiven Nachvollziehbarkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit. Dieser Beitrag f{\"u}hrt ein in die Grundlagen politikwissenschaftlicher Prognosen. Den Schwerpunkt der Darstellung bilden Wahlprognosen, insbesondere strukturelle Modelle, welche beispielhaft anhand eines kanonischen Wahlprognosemodells erl{\"a}utert werden. Daneben werden synthetische Modelle, Aggregationsmodelle, „Wisdom of the crowd"-Ans{\"a}tze und Prognosem{\"a}rkte diskutiert.}, language = {de} } @article{LeiningerRudolphZittlau, author = {Leininger, Arndt and Rudolph, Lukas and Zittlau, Steffen}, title = {How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation}, series = {Political Science Research and Methods}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, number = {6(3)}, issn = {2049-8489}, doi = {10.1017/psrm.2016.38}, pages = {509 -- 526}, abstract = {Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any stand-alone election. Leveraging as-if-random variation of local election timing in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of concurrent mayoral elections on European election turnout at around 10 percentage points. Exploiting variation in treatment intensity, we show that the magnitude of the concurrency effect is contingent upon district size and the competitiveness of the local race.}, language = {en} } @article{HaussnerLeininger, author = {Haußner, Stefan and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Parlamentsfragen}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Parlamentsfragen}, number = {49(1)}, issn = {0340-1758}, doi = {10.5771/0340-1758-2018-1-69}, pages = {69 -- 90}, abstract = {Seit die Alternative f{\"u}r Deutschland (AfD) erstmals zur Bundestagswahl 2013 antrat, nahm sie an allen darauffolgenden Landtagswahlen sowie der Europawahl 2014 teil und erzielte dabei teils beachtliche Erfolge. Gleichzeitig stieg die Wahlbeteiligung bei einigen dieser Wahlen deutlich an. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob die AfD von der gestiegenen Wahlbeteiligung profitiert hat und sogar dazu beitrug, die Wahlbeteiligung zu steigern? Ganz allgemein gefragt, welche Konsequenzen hat das Aufkommen populistischer Parteien f{\"u}r das politische System? Die Analyse der Wahlergebnisse in Bundestags-, Landtags- und Europawahlen auf Landkreisebene zeigt keinen eindeutigen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Erstarken der AfD und der Wahlbeteiligung. Nur in Einzelf{\"a}llen wie der Bundestagswahl 2017 und bei Landtagswahlen 2016 l{\"a}sst sich eine moderate mobilisierende Wirkung der AfD feststellen. Vielmehr deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine verst{\"a}rkte Polarisierung der politischen Beteiligung hin.}, language = {de} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Laender-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeiningerVlasenko, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt and Vlasenko, Anastasiia}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-Based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election}, series = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {55}, journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096521000974}, pages = {79 -- 84}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany: A Cautionary Tale about Data Vintages and Measurement}, series = {Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support}, booktitle = {Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support}, editor = {Hellwig, Timothy and Singer, Matthew}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, isbn = {9780192871664}, publisher = {Hertie School}, language = {en} } @incollection{LeiningerMurrStoetzeretal., author = {Leininger, Arndt and Murr, Andreas E. and Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {B{\"u}rger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall}, series = {Wahlen und W{\"a}hler}, booktitle = {Wahlen und W{\"a}hler}, editor = {Schoen, Harald and Weßels, Bernhard}, publisher = {Springer VS}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {9783658426934}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-658-42694-1_15}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {383 -- 411}, abstract = {Wie viele Wahlkreise gewinnt welche Partei bei der Bundestagswahl? Diese Frage war im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 trotz des deutschen Mischwahlsystems unter Fachleuten wie auch einer breiteren {\"O}ffentlichkeit von besonderem Interesse. Diesem Bedarf an Vorhersagen bedient in j{\"u}ngerer Zeit eine zunehmende Zahl von Prognosemodellen, die sich jedoch fast ausschließlich auf die Zweitstimme abzielen. F{\"u}r Wahlkreise gibt es nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern auch in reinen Mehrheitswahlsystemen, kaum relevante Umfragen. Wir f{\"u}hrten daher eine Wahlerwartungsumfrage durch, um den Wahlausgang in jedem einzelnen Bundestagswahlkreis zu prognostizieren. Wir nennen unseren Ansatz B{\"u}rger:innenprognose, weil er auf den Erwartungen der B{\"u}rger:innen {\"u}ber das Wahlverhalten ihrer Mitb{\"u}rger:innen beruht und nicht auf deren selbstberichteten Wahlabsichten. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir unsere B{\"u}rger:innenprognose vor, evaluieren ihre Genauigkeit und vergleichen sie mit anderen Ans{\"a}tzen zur Wahlprognose.}, language = {de} } @article{StoetzerKayserLeiningeretal., author = {Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt and Murr, Andreas E.}, title = {Voters' Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls}, series = {Public Opinion Quarterly}, journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly}, doi = {10.1093/poq/nfae015}, abstract = {How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy of voters' expectations. The analysis further shows that voters leverage the information to update their beliefs. The results have relevant implications for debates about belief formation in low-information environments.}, language = {en} }