@article{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Direct Democracy in Europe: Potentials and Pitfalls}, series = {Global Policy (gp)}, volume = {6}, journal = {Global Policy (gp)}, number = {S1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken (NJ) [u.a.]}, issn = {1758-5880}, doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.12224}, pages = {17 -- 27}, abstract = {Diagnoses of a democratic recession or 'hollowing out' of democracy are numerous and varied but usually encompass the following symptoms: a decline in turnout and other forms of political participation; policy making that is increasingly detached from ordinary citizens and their preferences; and an erosion of trust in government and satisfaction with democracy among citizens - all of which ultimately challenge the legitimacy of democratic institutions. Direct democracy is one of the most prominent, far-reaching and popular remedies proposed in response to such diagnoses. It, by allowing citizens to directly vote on questions usually decided by representatives, seems intuitively appealing as an obvious extension and deepening of democracy. In this article I survey the potentials but also pitfalls of an increased institutionalization of direct democracy and use thereof in the countries of the EU focusing on the three key aspects identified above: representation, turnout and citizens' political support.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Direct Democracy and Representative Government}, doi = {10.48462/opus4-2278}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-22780}, school = {Hertie School}, pages = {204}, abstract = {Direct democracy, an addition to representative democracy allowing citizens to directly vote on substantive issues parliaments usually vote on, has an intuitive appeal in appearing to be the most obvious institutionalization of democracy itself. Increased institutionalization and usage of direct democracy has heightened interest in the topic in political science. In the three papers which make up this dissertation I explore different aspects of the political effects of direct democracy with an aim to provide insights how it affects citizens' representation as well as their behavior and attitudes. In a first paper I test the claim that referendums are unrepresentative because turnout in referendums is usually lower than in parliamentary elections and tends to be skewed towards citizens of high socio-economic status. The analysis is made possible by a unique feature of Swiss post-referendum surveys which also asked non-voters about their opinion on the referendum's subject. Comparing opinion majorities in the surveys against actual referendum outcomes we show that representativeness increases slightly in turnout as well as over time. On balance we find more representative than unrepresentative outcomes implying that direct democracy, at least in Switzerland, seems to improve representation. In a second paper I focus on citizens' attitudes towards and actual participation in referendums. Using data from the European Social Survey I find that voting, other forms of political activity and political interest are positively associated with support for direct democracy. Analyzing post-referendum surveys I find the same pattern to hold for actual participation in referendums. Hence, direct democracy, despite its widespread popularity, appears insuff� cient to bring the politically disengaged back into democratic politics. In a third and final paper, I investigate whether direct democracy increases citizens' satisfaction with democracy. After all, they give citizens participatory opportunities and promise to offer them more control over policy. Combining aggregate data on satisfaction with democracy from semi-annual Eurobarometer surveys from 1973 to 2013 with data on all national referendums in the same period, I find no evidence for an (average) effect of referendums on democratic satisfaction. While an analysis of individual time-series suggests that referendums may have an effect under certain circumstances, significant positive estimates obtain for two countries, my empirical investigation of possible mechanisms remains inconclusive.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A far-right party just won seats in three German state parliaments. Here's why.}, series = {The Washington Post}, journal = {The Washington Post}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Voters seem to respond to the "reported" rather than to the "real" economy}, series = {Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) \& Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance}, journal = {Democratic Audit UK (London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Public Policy Group) \& Homepage of the Hertie School of Governance}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Benchmarking Forecasting the 2013 Election - the Post-Mortem Analysis}, series = {EU Political Economy Bulletin}, journal = {EU Political Economy Bulletin}, number = {Winter 2014}, edition = {17}, publisher = {European Union Studies Association, EU Political Economy Interest Section}, address = {Pittsburgh}, pages = {9 -- 12}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Benchmarking Forecast of the 2013 Bundestag Election}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Eine l{\"a}nderbasierte Prognose zur Bundestagswahl 2017}, series = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift}, number = {58(3)}, issn = {0032-3470}, doi = {10.5771/0032-3470-2017-3-407}, pages = {407 -- 417}, abstract = {When elections are distant, polls are poor predictors. Too few voters are paying attention and too much can change before election day. Structural models can establish baseline expectations but suffer from high uncertainty and underspecification imposed by small samples. We present an early forecast of the 2017 Bundestag election results for individual parties that leverages economic and political data as well as state parliament (Landtag) election results in the German states (L{\"a}nder) to sidestep these shortcomings. A linear random effects model provides our estimates. L{\"a}nder elections are dispersed over the calendar and offer the advantage of capturing both actual voter preferences and new political issues. We argue that this approach offers a promising method for early forecasts when polls are not informative.}, language = {de} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Laender-Based Forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 Bundestag Election}, series = {German Politics}, volume = {25}, journal = {German Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1080/09644008.2015.1129531}, pages = {106 -- 130}, abstract = {Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany ('benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe - France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-based forecast of the 2017 German Bundestag Election}, series = {Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {50}, journal = {Political Science \& Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1049-0965}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096517000427}, pages = {689 -- 692}, language = {en} } @incollection{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {The Economy and Chancellor Approval in Germany: A Cautionary Tale about Data Vintages and Measurement}, series = {Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support}, booktitle = {Economics and Politics Revisited: Executive Approval and the New Calculus of Support}, editor = {Hellwig, Timothy and Singer, Matthew}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, isbn = {9780192871664}, publisher = {Hertie School}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeiningerVlasenko, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt and Vlasenko, Anastasiia}, title = {A L{\"a}nder-Based Forecast of the 2021 German Bundestag Election}, series = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, volume = {55}, journal = {PS: Political Science \& Politics}, number = {1}, doi = {10.1017/S1049096521000974}, pages = {79 -- 84}, language = {en} } @article{KayserLeininger, author = {Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Vintage errors: do real-time economic data improve election forecasts?}, series = {Research and Politics}, volume = {2}, journal = {Research and Politics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Sage}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {2053-1680}, doi = {10.1177/2053168015589624}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:b1570-opus4-16321}, pages = {1 -- 11}, abstract = {Economic performance is a key component of most election forecasts. When fitting models, however, most forecasters unwittingly assume that the actual state of the economy, a state best estimated by the multiple periodic revisions to official macroeconomic statistics, drives voter behavior. The difference in macroeconomic estimates between revised and original data vintages can be substantial, commonly over 100\% (two-fold) for economic growth estimates, making the choice of which data release to use important for the predictive validity of a model. We systematically compare the predictions of four forecasting models for numerous US presidential elections using real-time and vintage data. We find that newer data are not better data for election forecasting: forecasting error increases with data revisions. This result suggests that voter perceptions of economic growth are influenced more by media reports about the economy, which are based on initial economic estimates, than by the actual state of the economy.}, language = {en} } @article{LandwehrLeininger, author = {Landwehr, Claudia and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Instrumental or procedural democrats? The evolution of procedural preferences after democratization}, series = {Political Research Exchange}, journal = {Political Research Exchange}, number = {1(1)}, issn = {2474-736X}, doi = {10.1080/2474736X.2019.1654838}, pages = {1 -- 19}, abstract = {This paper addresses instrumentalist attitudes to democracy - attitudes according to which democracy is not valued for itself, but accepted only as a means to specific policy goals. Pippa Norris has argued that in the process of democratic consolidation, such instrumentalist conceptions of democracy are replaced with proceduralist ones, leading to an enlightened understanding of democracy. We use the unique case of German reunification to show that this process takes at least a generation to complete. Based on data from a novel battery of items fielded via the German GESIS panel, we show an East-West divide in democratic instrumentalism, which, however, is smaller among younger generations. While our findings do confirm Norris' thesis that growing democratic experience leads to a shift from instrumental to procedural understandings of democracy, we also show that instrumental democrats still make up a sizeable portion of the citizenry that might withdraw support if dissatisfied.}, language = {en} } @article{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Economic Voting in Direct Democracy: A Case Study of the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum}, series = {Politics and Governance}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, number = {7(2)}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17169/refubium-2821}, pages = {306 -- 333}, abstract = {Referendums provide citizens with more control over policy. At the same time, they often entail choices over highly complex policies and are politicised along partisan lines, suggesting that partisan rather than policy considerations will guide voters' choices. I look to the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum, which was particularly complex and polarised, as an opportunity to test for mechanisms of government accountability in a referendum. Using a national survey of voters, I show that the more negative a respondent's evaluation of the state of the economy, the lower their likelihood to vote 'yes' on the government's reform proposal. This relationship is remarkably strong: an average respondent with a very positive evaluation of the state of the economy has an 88\% probability of supporting the government's reform proposal compared to only 12\% for a respondent with a very negative evaluation. The fact that economic evaluations are a strong determinant of vote choice provides evidence for the existence of an economic vote in a referendum. This further suggests that voters may treat referendums as a sort of second-order election.}, language = {en} } @article{LeiningerRudolphZittlau, author = {Leininger, Arndt and Rudolph, Lukas and Zittlau, Steffen}, title = {How to Increase Turnout in Low-Salience Elections: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Concurrent Second-Order Elections on Political Participation}, series = {Political Science Research and Methods}, journal = {Political Science Research and Methods}, number = {6(3)}, issn = {2049-8489}, doi = {10.1017/psrm.2016.38}, pages = {509 -- 526}, abstract = {Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any stand-alone election. Leveraging as-if-random variation of local election timing in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of concurrent mayoral elections on European election turnout at around 10 percentage points. Exploiting variation in treatment intensity, we show that the magnitude of the concurrency effect is contingent upon district size and the competitiveness of the local race.}, language = {en} } @article{HaussnerLeininger, author = {Haußner, Stefan and Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Die Erfolge der AfD und die Wahlbeteiligung: Gibt es einen Zusammenhang?}, series = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Parlamentsfragen}, journal = {Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Parlamentsfragen}, number = {49(1)}, issn = {0340-1758}, doi = {10.5771/0340-1758-2018-1-69}, pages = {69 -- 90}, abstract = {Seit die Alternative f{\"u}r Deutschland (AfD) erstmals zur Bundestagswahl 2013 antrat, nahm sie an allen darauffolgenden Landtagswahlen sowie der Europawahl 2014 teil und erzielte dabei teils beachtliche Erfolge. Gleichzeitig stieg die Wahlbeteiligung bei einigen dieser Wahlen deutlich an. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, ob die AfD von der gestiegenen Wahlbeteiligung profitiert hat und sogar dazu beitrug, die Wahlbeteiligung zu steigern? Ganz allgemein gefragt, welche Konsequenzen hat das Aufkommen populistischer Parteien f{\"u}r das politische System? Die Analyse der Wahlergebnisse in Bundestags-, Landtags- und Europawahlen auf Landkreisebene zeigt keinen eindeutigen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Erstarken der AfD und der Wahlbeteiligung. Nur in Einzelf{\"a}llen wie der Bundestagswahl 2017 und bei Landtagswahlen 2016 l{\"a}sst sich eine moderate mobilisierende Wirkung der AfD feststellen. Vielmehr deuten die Ergebnisse auf eine verst{\"a}rkte Polarisierung der politischen Beteiligung hin.}, language = {de} } @incollection{Leininger, author = {Leininger, Arndt}, title = {Forecasting}, series = {Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft}, booktitle = {Handbuch Methoden der Politikwissenschaft}, publisher = {Springer VS}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {978-3-658-16937-4}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-658-16937-4_36-1}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {1 -- 20}, abstract = {Prognosen stellen in der Politikwissenschaft ein zwar noch kleines, aber stetig wachsendes Forschungsfeld dar, welches in verschiedenen Teilbereichen der Disziplin Anwendung findet. Gemeint sind hiermit statistische Modelle, mit denen explizit politikwissenschaftlich relevante Ph{\"a}nomene vor ihrem Eintreten vorhergesagt werden. Dabei folgen sie den wissenschaftlichen Leitlinien der intersubjektiven Nachvollziehbarkeit und Reproduzierbarkeit. Dieser Beitrag f{\"u}hrt ein in die Grundlagen politikwissenschaftlicher Prognosen. Den Schwerpunkt der Darstellung bilden Wahlprognosen, insbesondere strukturelle Modelle, welche beispielhaft anhand eines kanonischen Wahlprognosemodells erl{\"a}utert werden. Daneben werden synthetische Modelle, Aggregationsmodelle, „Wisdom of the crowd"-Ans{\"a}tze und Prognosem{\"a}rkte diskutiert.}, language = {de} } @article{StoetzerKayserLeiningeretal., author = {Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Kayser, Mark A. and Leininger, Arndt and Murr, Andreas E.}, title = {Voters' Expectations in Constituency Elections without Local Polls}, series = {Public Opinion Quarterly}, journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly}, doi = {10.1093/poq/nfae015}, abstract = {How do voters form accurate expectations about the strength of political candidates in constituency elections if there are no reliable constituency polls available? We argue that voters can use national election polls and past election results to increase the accuracy of their expectations. A survey experiment during the German federal election of 2021 confirms that the provision of national election polls and past results increases the accuracy of voters' expectations. The analysis further shows that voters leverage the information to update their beliefs. The results have relevant implications for debates about belief formation in low-information environments.}, language = {en} } @incollection{LeiningerMurrStoetzeretal., author = {Leininger, Arndt and Murr, Andreas E. and Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Kayser, Mark A.}, title = {B{\"u}rger:innenprognosen in einem Mischwahlsystem: Die deutsche Bundestagswahl 2021 als Testfall}, series = {Wahlen und W{\"a}hler}, booktitle = {Wahlen und W{\"a}hler}, editor = {Schoen, Harald and Weßels, Bernhard}, publisher = {Springer VS}, address = {Wiesbaden}, isbn = {9783658426934}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-658-42694-1_15}, publisher = {Hertie School}, pages = {383 -- 411}, abstract = {Wie viele Wahlkreise gewinnt welche Partei bei der Bundestagswahl? Diese Frage war im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2021 trotz des deutschen Mischwahlsystems unter Fachleuten wie auch einer breiteren {\"O}ffentlichkeit von besonderem Interesse. Diesem Bedarf an Vorhersagen bedient in j{\"u}ngerer Zeit eine zunehmende Zahl von Prognosemodellen, die sich jedoch fast ausschließlich auf die Zweitstimme abzielen. F{\"u}r Wahlkreise gibt es nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern auch in reinen Mehrheitswahlsystemen, kaum relevante Umfragen. Wir f{\"u}hrten daher eine Wahlerwartungsumfrage durch, um den Wahlausgang in jedem einzelnen Bundestagswahlkreis zu prognostizieren. Wir nennen unseren Ansatz B{\"u}rger:innenprognose, weil er auf den Erwartungen der B{\"u}rger:innen {\"u}ber das Wahlverhalten ihrer Mitb{\"u}rger:innen beruht und nicht auf deren selbstberichteten Wahlabsichten. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir unsere B{\"u}rger:innenprognose vor, evaluieren ihre Genauigkeit und vergleichen sie mit anderen Ans{\"a}tzen zur Wahlprognose.}, language = {de} }